Election Night Timelines Project

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ok I have decided to do 1994 if Bush won. So I will be going of the 1992 scenario I did here and these were the down ballot changes in that scenario vs OTL

Senate: SC and CA(Regular) will be won by the GOP so the Senate balance is 55-45. Also since Bentsen never joins the cabinet, Dems never lose TX so we go into 1994 with the Senate balance being 55-45.

House: The House is 240-194-1 in favor of the Dems rather than 258-176-1

[OSR stands with Israel]

1994 Election Preview:

Jennings: As you all may know , tommorow is the midterm elections where the entire house, a third of the senate and most governorships will be up and we will be covering them here on ABC. Now what will be watching for , well with us is Jeff Greenfield who will be telling us.

Greenfield: Well first is the House and as you can see the Democrats are expected to make gains and could make enough gains to wipe out their losses from 1992, which many attribute to redistricting. So them getting back to their numbers from 1990 would actually be more impressive then it was then given the map is not as favorable to them as it was then.

House of Representatives:

Democrats: 244-266(+4-+26)
Republicans: 168-190(-4- -26)
Independent: 1
Tossup: 22

Jennings: What about the Senate

Greenfield: This is where things get interesting as usually in a 6th year itch let alone a 14th year itch, the party in the white house loses big in senate races. The Republicans lost 15 senate seats in 1958 and 9 in 1986 for example but this time its very possible they may make gains due to the fact that the map that is up is again favorable to them. Now lets look at the 10 races we consider to be potentially at risk of flipping

Senate:


Vulnerable Republican Seats:

Delaware: Senator William Roth(R) vs State Attorney General(D)- Lean Republican Hold

Minnesota : Representative Rod Grams(D) vs  State House Representative Ann Wynia(D) - Tossup

Vermont: Senator Jim Jeffords(R) vs State Senator Jan Backus(D) vs Mr. Gavin Millis- Tossup

Washington : Senator Slade Gorton(R) vs King County Councilmember Ron Sims(R) - Lean Republican Hold

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

Arizona- Senator Dennis DeConcini(D) vs Represenative Jon Kyl(R)- Lean Republican Gain

Michigan - Representative Milton Carr(D) vs State GOP Chair Spencer Abraham(R)- Tossup

Ohio- Businessman Joel Hyatt(D) vs Representative Mike DeWine(R)- Lean Republican gain

Oklahoma- Representative Dave McMurdy(D) vs Representative Jim Inhofe(R)- Lean Republican Gain

Pennsylvania: Senator Harris Wofford(D) vs Representative Rick Santorum(D) - Lean Democratic Hold

Tennessee: Senator Jim Sasser(D) vs Physician Bill Frist(R) - Tossup

Jennings: Looking at this list it is possible that Repulicans even outright take the senate

Greenfield: It 100% is a possibility as if you assume Republicans hold their seats and then win 5 of the 6 Democratic battleground seats on the board but doing so will be pretty unlikely since they almost have to run the board and given the house numbers that will be difficult. I will say this though and that is that Senate Democrats are probably happy Cuomo ended up losing because if he won, I would say it would be almost certain that the Republicans would have taken the senate tonight.

Jennings: Ok now what about the governor's races

Battleground Gubernatorial Races:

Vulnerable Republican Seats:

Alaska: Mr Jim Campbell(R) vs Former Anchorage Mayor Tony Knowles(D) vs Lieutenant Governor Jack Coghill(I) - Lean Democratic Gain

Arizona: Governor Fife Symington(R) vs Businessman Eddie Basha(D) - Tossup

California: Governor Pete Wilson(R) vs State Treasurer Kathleen Brown(D)- Lean Republican Hold

South Carolina: Former State Representative David Beasley(R) vs Lieutenant Governor Nick Theodore(D)- Tossup

South Dakota: Former South Dakota Governor Bill Janklow(R) vs Mr. Jim Beddow(D) vs Mr. Nathan Barton(L)- Lean Republican Hold

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

Alabama: Governor Jim Folsom Jr(D) vs Former Governor Fob James(R)- Lean Democratic Hold

Maryland: Prince County Executive Parris Glendening(D) vs State Delegate Ellen Sauerbrey(R)- Lean Democratic Hold

New Mexico: Governor Bruce King(D) vs Businessman Gary Johnson(R) vs Former Lieutenant Governor Roberto Mondragón(G)- Tossup

New York - Governor Mario Cuomo(D) vs State Senator George Pataki(R) vs Businessman Tom Golisano(I) - Lean Democratic Hold

Oklahoma: Lieutenant Governor Jack Mildren(D) vs Former Deputy HUD Secretary Frank Keating- Likely Republican Gain

Pennsylvania: Lieutenant Governor Mark Singel(D) vs Representative Tom Ride(R) vs Mr. Peg Luksik(C) - Tossup

Rhode Island- State Senator Myrth York(D) vs Attorney Lincoln Almond(R) vs Businessman Robert Healey(I) - Tossup

Tennessee- Nashville Mayor Phil Bredesen(D) vs Representative Don Sundquist(R) - Tossup

Wyoming- Wyoming Secretary of State Kathy Karpan(D) vs State Senator Jim Geringer(R) - Lean Republican Gain


Vulnerable Independent Seats:

Connecticut: Former Representative John Rowland(R) vs State Comptroller Bill Curry(D) vs Lieutenant Governor Eunice Groark(I) vs Former State Senator Tom Scott(I) - Tossup


Greenfield: As you can tell there are a lot of battleground gubernatorial races and these races are important as keep in mind much of the policy changes parties want to do are done by Governors and not Presidents or either house of congress so these races will be interesting to watch. Second they provide parties with benches for future Presidential races as well as help build up the state party infrastructure thats critical in tight races too. So we will be watching these with great interest as well

Jennings: Thanks Jeff and we hope all of you join us here at ABC to get up to date news about the 1994 midterm elections.

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 ABC Election Night Coverage(Part 1):

7:00

https://youtu.be/SsVFZ0F8Gmc?si=kQLOIsx7jVCgjP95

Good Evening and Welcome to ABC's Coverage of the 1994 Midterm Elections where we will be finding out what the composition of Congress will look like for the next two years, as well as see who will be controlling gubernatorial mansions in 36 states as well. The first polls have closed and in the senate we can project that Senator Richard Lugar will be easily reelected in Indiana, Senator Connie Mack will be easily reelected in Florida, and we can also project that Senator Chuck Robb will be reelected in Virginia. We are unable to make a projection in Vermont at the moment

Democrats 34
Republicans 35

Jennings: In the Gubernatorial Races we can project that Governor Lawton Chiles will be easily reelected in Florida, Governor Zell Miller will be easily reelected in Georgia, Governor Howard Dean will be easily reelected in Vermont and Governor Steve Merrill will be easily reelected in New Hampshire.  Currently we are unable to make a projection in South Carolina though.

Jennings: So no surprises so far but it is very early

Brinkley: It is indeed but I will point out that in all my years of covering politics, I will say it is remarkable to me how the Republicans despite being in control of the White House for the past 14 years, have not seen a wave go against them in that period. The Democrats had it go against them in 1946 and 1966 while the Republicans had it go against them in 1958 and 1974 but never since which is interesting.

I think that does give credence to the fact that politics have changed and that Republicans are fundamentally a stronger party then they used to be and a lot of that is that Democrats dont have the monopoly they used to on the south.


7:30:

Jennings:The polls have closed in a couple more states and ABC can project that Senator Robert Byrd will be easily reelected in West Virginia. We are unable to make a projection in Ohio though

Democrats 35
Republicans 35

Jennings: On the other hand we can make a projection in the Ohio Governor's race and ABC can project that Governor George Voinovich will be easily reelected.

Jennings: So far everything is holding to form

Roberts: Yes they are but what I do find interesting are these early returns in these house races is if they continue like this then it does suggest Democrats should be favored to take back more than the Dozen seats the need to give them ideological control of the house. For people wondering if it makes a different, I will tell you that it does because just look at the type of legislation that this congress has passed vs the prior congress. On taxes this congress passed a capital gains tax cut while the prior congress famously raised taxes, it passed NAFTA into law which again was facing difficulties in the old congress and passed one of the most stringent tough on crime bill in modern history so ideological control does matter just as much as party control does .

Jennings: It also probably would mean the death of Welfare Reform

Roberts: Yes as keep in mind Welfare Reform did pass the house by an extremely slim margin in the prior congress, it’s just that it failed to get through the senate. President Bush is hoping if you could keep losses in the house to the less than 12 range, and make some gains in the Senate thanks to a favorable Senate Map then that bill could pass in the next congress.

Jennings : Alright we now will be sending it back to your local news stations so you can get an update on your local races but we will be back at the top of the hour .

[President Johnson]

Good to see this returning. I might do one again, though I'm not sure which scenario yet.

[MATTROSE94]

Great timeline! Can you do 1974 without Watergate next? I assume that a world without Watergate would have resulted in the Republicans winning the House in 1980, which would have made Ronald Reagan’s first term more interesting.

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 ABC Election Night Coverage(Part 2):

8:00

https://youtu.be/SsVFZ0F8Gmc?si=kQLOIsx7jVCgjP95

Jennings: It is 8 PM In the East and we are now able to project that Democrats will retain the House of Representatives with a larger majority. Here is what ABC is projecting at the moment

Democrats: 250-262(+10-+22)
Republicans: 172-184(-10-22)
Independents: 1(-)

So David how are the senate races going

Brinkley : ABC can now project Connecticut- Senator Joe Lieberman will be easily reelected, in Maine- Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell will win another term, in Maryland- Senator Paul Sabanes will win by a comfortable margin, in Massachusetts - Senator Ted Kennedy will easily win , in New Jersey- Senator Frank Lautenberg will be reelected, and in Texas- Senator Lloyd Bentsen will be reelected a comfortable margin.

We can also project in Mississippi- Senator Trent Lott will easily be reelected, and in Missouri- Senator John Danforth will easily be reelected.

We are unable to at this moment make projections in Deleware, Michigan, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and in Tennessee.

Democrats 40
Republicans 37

Brinkley: In the Gubernatorial Races, ABC can now project in Illinois - Governor Jim Edgar will be reelected by a comfortable margin, in Massachusetts- Governor Bill Weld will be easily reelected, in Michigan- Governor Jim Engler will be reelected by a comfortable margin, and in Oklahoma- Secretary Frank Keating will win. We can also project in Kansas- Governor Joan Finney will be easily reelected, and in Texas- Governor Ann Richards will be reelected by a comfortable margin.

We are unable to make a projection in Alabama, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Tennessee

Brinkley: No surprises here but I will point out that if our house projection is accurate and if we go with the middle number in that range it would put the GOP at 178 house seats which would still result in them having more total house seats than they have had after any midterm since 1970 and the most in a 6th year itch since 1926.

Greenfield: I would want to point out though that a large reason for this is the 1990s redistricting cycle went more favorably for the Republicans than any cycle since the 1950s if not earlier which makes it harder for Democrats to run up the numbers in the House like they used too. I will also that the Republicans will need at least 181 or 182 house seats to prevent the house from falling into control of liberals and they will have to almost run the table to do that.

Will: I will agree with Jeff that Republicans did have a more favorable redistricting cycle after 1990 than in prior decades but a lot of the reason is thanks to the work they have done throughout the 1980s where they gains many state legislative seats throughout the south which in turn gives you more influence over the redistricting process.



8:30:


Jennings: The polls have closed in Arkansas and ABC can project that  Lieutenant Governor Jim Tucker will be elected as the next governor of that state succeeding long time governor and 1992 and likely 1996 Democratic presidential primary candidate Bill Clinton.

Jennings: In the Senate we can also project that in Vermont- Senator Jim Jeffords will be reelected and in Oklahoma - Representative Jim Inhofe will win.

Democrats 40(-1)
Republicans 39(+1)

Jennings: So far none of the tossup races have been called so no surprises so far

Greenfield : What I would say interesting so far is the fact that the democrats have a real chance at sweeping the south as they currently lead in Alabama and South Carolina and our exit polls do give them the slight edge in both races and TN is expected to be very close too . If that is the case then it will be the first midterm since 1962 in which democrats won every gubernatorial race in the former confederacy.  Of course too early to say at the moment but it is a real possibility tonight .

Donaldson : It is interesting but at the same I would point out republicans are doing well in the south in the senate races and in the gubernatorial races , even if they get swept it would mean a loss of one which isn’t really much .

Brinkley : I would agree but in my opinion what this shows is all the talk about trends from the experts , keeps getting proven wrong over and over . I think we are truly in an era where we have two party politics in nearly every part of the  country now and it will remain that way for the foreseeable future .

Jennings :  Alright we will be sending it back to your local stations for news about your local results . We will be back at the top of the hour

[OSR stands with Israel]

1992 ABC Election Night Coverage(Part 3):

9:00

https://youtu.be/SsVFZ0F8Gmc?si=kQLOIsx7jVCgjP95

Jennings: Welcome back, it is 9 PM in the east and a whole bunch of states have just closed their polls and ABC can now project that in Nebraska- Senator Bob Kerrey will be reelected by a comfortable margin , in New Mexico- Senator Jeff Bingaman will be reelected by a comfortable margin, in New York- Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan will be reelected by a comfortable margin, in North Dakota- Senator Kent Conrad will be easily reelected, in Wisconsin -Senator Herb Kohl will be easily reelected. We can also project that in Rhode Island- Senator John Chafee will be easily reelected and in Wyoming- Representative Craig Thomas will be the next senator of that state.

We are currently unable to make a projection in Arizona, Minnesota

Democrats 45(-1)
Republicans 41(+1)

Jennings: So David how are the gubernatorial races going

Brinkley: Similarly we are able to make some projection in the gubernatorial races too. ABC Can now project that in Colorado- Governor Roy Romer will easily be reelected, in Nebraska- Governor Ben Nelson will be easily reelected. We are also able to project in Minnesota- Governor Anne Carlson will easily be reelected, and in Wisconsin- Governor Tommy Thompson will be easily reelected

We are unable to make a projection in Arizona, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and in Wyoming

Brinkley: The big news so far is that the long time New York and former Democratic Nominee Mario Cuomo seems to be in a competitive race for governor since we are unable to call it. Tom What are your thoughts on the race

Wicker: Well I will say it is not surprising given the fact is after 12 years of Cuomo as governor that does cause fatigue with the incumbent which reduces that advantage and add into the fact that The Republican George Pataki was able to run an effective camapign on issues such as law and order and that is why he was able to reduce Governor Cuomo lead to single digits. Now will he win, I don't think so but if he can indeed hold Governor Cuomo to a single digit win, then it does set him well to run again 4 years from now.

Jennings: Do you think Governor Cuomo's Presidential campaign hurt him here

Wicker: It is very possible as the fact is his negatives especially on the law and order issue were increased due to that campaign but I don't think that played as big of a part as people may think given he did easily win the state two years ago.


9:33:

Jennings : ABC News is now able to make projections in two more races, first in the Ohio Senate Race where we can now project that Representative Mike DeWine will be the next senator of that state

Democrats 45(-2)
Republicans 42(+2)

Jennings: We can also project that in South Carolina- Lieutenant Governor Nick Theodore will defeat the Republican David Beasley to be the next governor of that state

Jennings : Some more good news for the Democrats here is the fact that Democratic candidates currently are in the lead in Alabama, Tenneesse , Pennsylvania , Connecticut and Rhode Island so there is a very favorable trend going in their direction here

Brinkley: Yes and this is why I believe that supporters of either party should just wait before declaring they had a good night or not because there is still a lot of counting to be done and currently no tossup senate race has been called and only 1 tossup Governor race has which was South Carolina so everything that has happened so far is in line with expectations I would say.

Jennings: Jeff so far what results are you finding interesting

Greenfield: So far nothing but I would say what is surprising is the fact that Bredesen seems to at this point be the favorite to win and the fact is he was considered the very slightly underdog going in so that is interesting.

Jennings: Now lets take a look at our house projection at this moment and this is how it looks like and then lets send it over to Sam and Cokie for their analysis of the projection so far :

Democrats: 251-261(+11-+21)
Republicans: 173-183(-11-21)
Independents: 1(-)

Donaldson: As you can see the Democrats are just now two seats away from being guaranteed a liberal majority in the house which would be a pretty big blow to President Bush as he would lose the working majority he had the past two years, which would really end any hopes of any major conservative pieces of legislation passing . Now I will want to remind our viewers that there are 435 house seats in the country so it will take some time before we can find out whether Democrats will indeed get that majority or not though the trendline at the moment is going in their favor.

Roberts: I would agree but I would like to point out there are stuff he can do that both conservatives and liberals would like such as bringing deficts down, pass tougher laws on law and order issues and he also has the power of the Presidency to cement in many of his accomplishments from the past 6 years but especially the past two. So it will be interesting to see what direction the President takes over the next two years and only time will tell.

Jennings: Thanks Sam and Cokie . I do want to let the viewers know though that ABC does have a projection to make and that is in Alabama- we can now project that Governor Jim Folsom Jr will indeed win a full term on his own right by defeating former Alabama Governor Fob James

Jennings: Ok we will be sending it back to your local stations for the rest of the hour and be back at 10 Eastern for the next poll closings