Election Night Timelines Project

[Chips]

New update coming soon.

[Chips]

"It's 8PM and we can project the president will win Maryland, Massachusetts, Delaware and the District of Columbia. We can project Rubio will win Alabama and Oklahoma. All of this means that Rubio is now at 49 electoral votes and Clinton is at 30. For the senate, We can project that Lindsay Graham will win re-election in SC. Sessions will cruise to re-election in AL, Shelley Moore Capito will win re-election in WV, Jim Inhofe will win re-election in OK, Ed Markey will win re-election in MA and Chris Coons will win re-election in DE."

[OSR stands with Israel]

The race looks so far tighter than what polling has said. Go Rubio

[Chips]

The race looks so far tighter than what polling has said. Go Rubio

Granted, I even said it could be a long night even if it's not a close race.

[Chips]

"It is 8:30PM and we can project that Arkansas will go to Rubio no real surprise. Also, we can project Rubio will win Mississippi, Tennessee and Georgia. The president will carry Illinois, Connecticut and Rhode Island. What this means is that Senator Rubio has 88 electoral votes while Clinton has 48. For the senate, GOP incumbents are projected to be re-elected in AR and MS. Hagerty has also been elected in TN. Incumbent Democrats have won in RI and NJ. Let's take a look at some battleground states now."

Virginia: Rubio is leading.
Pennsylvania: Clinton has a comfortable lead right now but only Philadelphia and it's suburbs are in right now. We can see that Clinton so far isn't getting numbers she needs and is currently losing in Bucks and Chester counties.
Ohio: Rubio is narrowly leading, Rubio is leading in Hamilton and Montgomery counties.
North Carolina: Rubio is comfortably ahead.
Florida: Rubio is leading by about seven points with 85% in.
New Hampshire: Clinton barely leads now.

"As we can see that doesn't look good for the President. If we take Trump's 216 from 2016 and add VA, NC and FL, That's 273 for Rubio so if Rubio only won states where he's leading right now and wins every state Trump won 4 years ago, he wins the election. Clinton HAS to have Virginia to win."

[OSR stands with Israel]

While it’s still early , if Hillary loses Bucks county she will lose the election

[Chips]

"It's 8:49PM and we have a major projection. Rubio has won his home state of Florida. Not a big surprise but it is a FLIP from 2016. We can also project Rubio will win Missouri while Clinton will win New Jersey."

"It's now 9PM on the east coast. We can project that Rubio will win Louisiana, 4/5 of Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming while the President will win New York. Rubio now has 148 electoral votes while Clinton has 104."

"We have a key projection for the Senate. Mitch McConnell has been re-elected as senator from Kentucky. The GOP is approaching a majority in the Senate and we can now project that the GOP has maintained control of the House. Apart from that, so far all incumbent parties have so far won their senate seats though several races remain too close to call."

[Chips]

I've been too busy to post timelines lately. I promise I will have the next part posted in a couple days or so.

[Chips]

"We have some projections. A key one is that Senator Rubio will win Ohio. This was a state that President Clinton narrowly failed to win last time and it appears to be going to Rubio by an even bigger margin. This could be a bad sign for Clinton elsewhere in the Industrial Midwest. Clinton is leading in Michigan but it is close, in Wisconsin Rubio has a lead and in Pennsylvania Clinton is leading but the margin is quickly shrinking. We can also project Kansas, Nebraska-2, Maine-2 and Texas have all gone to Rubio while the President will win Maine-1. Rubio has 212 electoral votes, Clinton has 105."

This is looking tough for the president, Isn't it?

"Indeed. She's on track to lose every state she lost in 2016 and has already lost Florida. That's 245 electoral votes for Rubio. North Carolina is close but Rubio is leading by a few points. If that goes, That's 260 for Rubio and then Rubio just needs one more big state or a couple of small states to win. Rubio is leading in Virginia. That would get him over. Rubio is leading in Colorado and New Hampshire. Winning both of those means Rubio wins the presidency. Rubio is leading in Wisconsin and isn't too far behind in Minnesota and Michigan. Pennsylvania is still showing a fairly large Clinton lead but it's shrinking and will likely be a very close race when all is said and done."

"We have another projection and that's that the GOP will retain control of the Senate. GOP has retained both Georgia races we can now project and that means that the GOP will retain control of the Senate."

[Chips]

Sorry for the delay, I have more free time popping up so I can post these more often.

[Chips]

"We can project the Florida senator has won Arizona, New Hampshire and North Carolina. the latter two being flips from 2016. That puts Rubio at 238 electoral votes, 32 away from winning. We can project that the President will win Maine's 2 at large electoral votes to put her at 107. There are strong indications that Rubio will win IA. If he wins IA along with MT, AK, UT and ID that's 264. Clinton would then have to sweep all the remaining swing states. She sits at a mere 3% chance of winning right now according to FiveThirtyEight."

"What happens if New Mexico goes for Rubio and the other states go for Clinton?"

"We'd have a 269-269 tie where Rubio would be elected anyway due to the GOP holding a LOT more delegations. That's probably moot as if Rubio is winning New Mexico he will almost certainly win Nevada and Colorado and either of those going Rubio means he wins no matter what New Mexico does."

"It's 10PM and we can project Iowa, Montana and Utah have gone for Rubio. Nevada is too early but Rubio has a lead. Rubio is inching close with 257 to Clinton's 107."

"What do you have to say here folks?"

"It's truly looking like this is the final few minutes for Clinton right now. Rubio is leading in most of the battlegrounds right now and will probably exceed 300 electoral votes by the time this night is over which would be the first time a GOP candidate for president has achieved this in 32 years. Pennsylvania just turned into a Rubio lead and we can confirm Rubio has won Bucks county by three points and Chester by one point. That's a bleak sign for Clinton in this key state. Nevada, Virginia and Colorado are also posting Rubio leads with New Mexico being even and Clinton leading in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan but all three are looking very close."

[President Johnson]

Good work, although I don't like where the election is going here.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Good work, although I don't like where the election is going here.

it’s actually ironic in a way that Hillary is going down running for a 4th term for the Dems  by around 5-6 points given that is similar to the margin that HW went down running for a 4th term for the GOP.

[Chips]

Good work, although I don't like where the election is going here.

Well, it is ironic that your last timeline had Rubio losing an election and it's ironic I'm using Rubio for this timeline but going to have him win.

[Chips]

MARCO RUBIO ELECTED PRESIDENT!!!

"It's 11PM on the east coast and we can project that California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii and Michigan have all gone to the President and that Idaho, Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania have gone to Senator Rubio. Senator Rubio is the 46th president of the United States."

"After 3 consecutive election defeats, the GOP is back in full force. They have the presidency, the House and the Senate. They'll finally be able to pass legislation they want and hopefully Rubio will lead us in a better direction than Hillary who had called Rubio to concede about 20 minutes earlier. This really feels reminiscent of 1992 where an incumbent tried to run for a fourth consecutive term for their party but lost to a charismatic challenger."

"How are Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota and Wisconsin looking now? Alaska will obviously go to Rubio of course."

"Nevada with 92% of the vote in is indicating a two point lead for Rubio. Rubio is confident that he will win here when all the votes are counted. In Clark County, 89% of the vote is in and Clinton is only leading by seven points here which is a bad sign for her here. Rubio is leading in Washoe County with 93% of it's vote now in. In New Mexico, 95% of the vote is in and Rubio is narrowly leading here by about 2,500 votes. It's likely this state will go to a recount but Rubio feels good about the state, he thinks the state will fall his way after the recount. Minnesota with 97% of the vote in, Clinton has a 1,000 vote lead but the rest of the vote we can say is in the rural counties, we think there could be as much as 6,000 rural votes left which could easily sway things Rubio's way. The state will go to a recount and the results of the state after the recount will be anyone's guess. Rubio feels as though there will be enough rural votes left to where he will be projected as the bare winner here. In Wisconsin, 98% of the vote is in and Clinton holds a 9,000 vote lead. The remaining vote seems to be mostly in Milwaukee. Clinton is confident that she will win here. If the states go as the way they're leaning now Rubio will have 317 electoral votes and Clinton 221 but Rubio thinks Minnesota will fall his way and if it does it's an even more impressive 327-211 win.

[BigVic]

MARCO RUBIO ELECTED PRESIDENT!!!

"It's 11PM on the east coast and we can project that California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii and Michigan have all gone to the President and that Idaho, Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania have gone to Senator Rubio. Senator Rubio is the 46th president of the United States."

"After 3 consecutive election defeats, the GOP is back in full force. They have the presidency, the House and the Senate. They'll finally be able to pass legislation they want and hopefully Rubio will lead us in a better direction than Hillary who had called Rubio to concede about 20 minutes earlier. This really feels reminiscent of 1992 where an incumbent tried to run for a fourth consecutive term for their party but lost to a charismatic challenger."

"How are Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota and Wisconsin looking now? Alaska will obviously go to Rubio of course."

"Nevada with 92% of the vote in is indicating a two point lead for Rubio. Rubio is confident that he will win here when all the votes are counted. In Clark County, 89% of the vote is in and Clinton is only leading by seven points here which is a bad sign for her here. Rubio is leading in Washoe County with 93% of it's vote now in. In New Mexico, 95% of the vote is in and Rubio is narrowly leading here by about 2,500 votes. It's likely this state will go to a recount but Rubio feels good about the state, he thinks the state will fall his way after the recount. Minnesota with 97% of the vote in, Clinton has a 1,000 vote lead but the rest of the vote we can say is in the rural counties, we think there could be as much as 6,000 rural votes left which could easily sway things Rubio's way. The state will go to a recount and the results of the state after the recount will be anyone's guess. Rubio feels as though there will be enough rural votes left to where he will be projected as the bare winner here. In Wisconsin, 98% of the vote is in and Clinton holds a 9,000 vote lead. The remaining vote seems to be mostly in Milwaukee. Clinton is confident that she will win here. If the states go as the way they're leaning now Rubio will have 317 electoral votes and Clinton 221 but Rubio thinks Minnesota will fall his way and if it does it's an even more impressive 327-211 win.

How does MI votes to the left of PA and NH?

[Chips]

MARCO RUBIO ELECTED PRESIDENT!!!

"It's 11PM on the east coast and we can project that California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii and Michigan have all gone to the President and that Idaho, Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania have gone to Senator Rubio. Senator Rubio is the 46th president of the United States."

"After 3 consecutive election defeats, the GOP is back in full force. They have the presidency, the House and the Senate. They'll finally be able to pass legislation they want and hopefully Rubio will lead us in a better direction than Hillary who had called Rubio to concede about 20 minutes earlier. This really feels reminiscent of 1992 where an incumbent tried to run for a fourth consecutive term for their party but lost to a charismatic challenger."

"How are Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota and Wisconsin looking now? Alaska will obviously go to Rubio of course."

"Nevada with 92% of the vote in is indicating a two point lead for Rubio. Rubio is confident that he will win here when all the votes are counted. In Clark County, 89% of the vote is in and Clinton is only leading by seven points here which is a bad sign for her here. Rubio is leading in Washoe County with 93% of it's vote now in. In New Mexico, 95% of the vote is in and Rubio is narrowly leading here by about 2,500 votes. It's likely this state will go to a recount but Rubio feels good about the state, he thinks the state will fall his way after the recount. Minnesota with 97% of the vote in, Clinton has a 1,000 vote lead but the rest of the vote we can say is in the rural counties, we think there could be as much as 6,000 rural votes left which could easily sway things Rubio's way. The state will go to a recount and the results of the state after the recount will be anyone's guess. Rubio feels as though there will be enough rural votes left to where he will be projected as the bare winner here. In Wisconsin, 98% of the vote is in and Clinton holds a 9,000 vote lead. The remaining vote seems to be mostly in Milwaukee. Clinton is confident that she will win here. If the states go as the way they're leaning now Rubio will have 317 electoral votes and Clinton 221 but Rubio thinks Minnesota will fall his way and if it does it's an even more impressive 327-211 win.

How does MI votes to the left of PA and NH?

Marco Rubio wasn't the same fit for Michigan as Trump was. He does better in places like Oakland County but rural turnout is down enough for Clinton to win the state by 1%. In Pennsylvania, his rural margins and turnout would be down too but I think Rubio would do better enough in the Philadelphia suburbs and places like Dauphin and Centre counties to make up for it. Rubio has a 2 point win here when all is said and done. New Hampshire I definitely think Rubio would do better in Hillsborough county and basically everywhere in the state aside from some of the rurals in the North. Rubio again posts a 1.5-2% victory for Rubio. Rubio does much weaker than Trump in Maine's 2nd and is one of the few places to post a better result for Clinton than her first time around but Rubio still pulls it off. Virginia and Colorado same deal as NH. Rubio improves greatly in the DC suburbs and the Denver suburbs in places like Loudoun, VA, Larimer, CO, Adams, CO and Jefferson, CO. Both post roughly the same margin of victory as NH with VA being a slightly bigger margin than CO.

[Chips]

"It's 1 AM on the east coast and we can project Alaska and Nevada for Rubio and Wisconsin for the President. This puts the president-elect at 312 and the incumbent president at 211."

"How do New Mexico and Minnesota look?"

"Well, 97% of New Mexico's vote is in and Rubio leads by around 3,200 votes. We might be able to call the state real soon after all. in Minnesota, 99.7% is in and Rubio has taken an incredibly narrow 15 vote lead over Clinton. We're not going to be able to call this one soon."

"It's 3:49 AM now and we have a major projection. Rubio wins New Mexico. Becoming the first Republican nominee to win here since Bush's narrow win here in 2004. Rubio wins here narrowly as well. We thought this state would go for a recount but with 100% in Rubio is leading with a 0.58% margin. Minnesota will go to an automatic recount."

"Did you think going in, we were going to see Rubio at 317 electoral votes? No, I thought Rubio would win but without states like Colorado and New Mexico. I figured a 290-248 win for Rubio with Trump states+NC, FL, PA, NV and NH. I did not expect CO, NM or VA for Rubio.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How does MI votes to the left of PA and NH?

Well MI did vote to the left of PA in OTL 2016 and 2020, and while it did vote considerably to the right of NH in 2020 it barely did so in 2016 so I think with Rubio as the nominee NH would vote to the right of MI

[Chips]

NOVEMBER 16: RUBIO BECOMES FIRST REPUBLICAN TO WIN MINNESOTA IN NEARLY 50 YEARS

"Yes, After a long hard recount, Rubio has a razor-thin 0.03% lead in Minnesota which is enough to say he has won the North Star state. Minnesota was Rubio's only win in the 2016 GOP primaries and was one of Rubio's strongest states in this year's GOP primary. It seemed Rubio was just the right fit for Minnesota. This is a truly amazing development."

"It is and with this Rubio has 327 electoral votes. Clinton finishes with 211. This is the GOP's
best showing in an election since 1988 in both the popular vote and the electoral college. Rubio was not only able to being all the Bush 2004 states back together but also added Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine's 2nd district. (which had gone for Trump last time around)



✓ Senator Marco A. Rubio (R-FL)/Fmr. Governor John R. Kasich (R-OH): 327 EV. (51.05%)
President Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY)/Vice President Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA): 211 EV. (46.90%)

[OSR stands with Israel]

Since President Johnson has informed me he won’t be doing the next TL on here , S019 will be doing the next TL on here

[S019]

2016: Hillary Clinton v Sarah Palin

Past Elections:

2000: Al Gore/Joe Lieberman v George Bush/Dick Cheney



2004: Al Gore/Joe Lieberman (inc.) v George Allen/Tom Ridge



2008: John Kerry/John Edwards v John McCain/Sarah Palin



2012: John McCain/Sarah Palin (inc.) v Barack Obama/Evan Bayh



2016: Sarah Palin/Dean Heller v Hillary Clinton/Mark Warner



Wolf Blitzer: This long campaign draws to a close as both candidates make their closing remarks to voters. Senator Clinton was in Richmond today, looking to flip Virginia for the first time since 1964, meanwhile Vice President Palin made her last stop in St. Petersburg, in the critical state of Florida, which has voted for the winner in every election since it voted for George H.W. Bush in 1992. Let's now head over to John King and the Magic Wall. Well, John not only the White House is up for grabs today, but the Senate is as well, and the gridlock between Democrats and President McCain over the past two years shows how important Congressional control can be for the President

John King: Indeed, glad you brought that up Wolf, let's indeed start with the Battle for the Senate. This is the current Senate map:



EDIT: The Democrats actually have a 53-47 majority because of the Republican Senator in NH, Kelly Ayotte, who won in 2010

As you can see, Democrats are very over extended on this map, holding seats in lots of solid red states such as South Dakota, Kentucky, Indiana, and Alaska. All four independents caucus with them, so the Democrats currently have a 53-47 majority, but a lot of these vulnerable seats are up tonight, so let's take a look at the seats up tonight.



The Republicans need four seats to take control, even if they lose the presidency and with this map, it looks very doable, Senators Dorgan in North Dakota and Daschle in South Dakota, who is also the Majority Leader, and has been the face of the anti-McCain opposition in the Senate for the last 8 years are all but done, even Democratic strategists have conceded those races. Senators Mongiardo in Kentucky and Senator Bayh in Indiana, who ran for Vice President in 2012 also look like they're in big trouble. That gets you to four, even if you miss one, then you can look at Senator Knowles, who's in the Vice President's home state of Alaska or Senator Napolitano in the President's home state of Arizona, Senator Marshall in North Carolina, which leans red. Then of course, the Democrats have several seats to defend in tossup states, such as Senator Castor in Florida or Senator Reid in Nevada or Senator Sestak in Pennsylvania. The path for the Democrats to hold Senate control simply looks daunting and if Senator Clinton does win the presidency, this is simply something she'll need to be content with.

We're just going to take a look at some of these pre-election polls in these seats to show the depth of the Democrats' problem. In North Dakota, Senator Dorgan trails former Governor Hoeven, who passed on a run in 2010, by a margin of 60-31 in the latest NBC News/Marist poll, in South Dakota, Senator Daschle trails Representative Noem by a margin of 63-27 in the latest CNN poll, both of these results would give competition to the worst Senate losses in history. Senator Bayh trails Governor Daniels by a margin of 53-44 in the latest CNN poll. In Florida, Senator Castor leads Representative Diaz-Balart by just two points, 48-46 in the latest Quinnipiac poll.

Wolf Blitzer: John, we'll look at the presidential map in just a second, but first we have some exit polls being released, and David Chalian will discuss them

David Chalian: Some interesting findings from the exit polls today, by a margin of 62-38, Americans say that they approve of President McCain, numbers that should be good for the Vice President, however by a margin of 57-43, Americans say that they believe that Vice President Palin's values are not consistent with the values of President McCain. Americans are split on whether they want another term of President McCain or a new direction, with 47 percent of Americans wanting another term of President McCain and 43 percent wanting a new direction. American's are also divided on which candidate represents a continuation of President McCain, with 43 percent saying the Vice President, and notably 20 percent saying Senator Clinton and 37 percent saying neither. It's been a repeated pattern that we've seen over and over again that the Vice President simply cannot capitalize on the President's popularity. Another interesting result is this, when we asked if Americans believed if a candidate was too extreme to be President, 43% of Americans believed that Vice President Palin was too extreme compared to just 25% of Americans believing that Senator Clinton was too extreme. The Vice President simply cannot run away from her reputation as an extremist from back when she was picked in 2008 and it is one of the reasons that an election that otherwise wouldn't be close, with a booming economy and popular president, has been a real nail-biter all along.

Wolf Blitzer: Thank you David Chalian and now back to the Magic Wall with John King

John King: So at the moment, before any votes are counted, we believe this is where the race for the White House stands:



233 Electoral votes for Senator Clinton and 225 votes for Senator Palin

Now let's look at some of the polling averages or our poll of polls. In Wisconsin, Senator Clinton leads the poll of polls by a margin of 51-45 and the general consensus is that if Senator Clinton loses Wisconsin, she's already lost the presidency, we had been quite close to moving Wisconsin to leaning Clinton, but we'll leave it in the tossup column for now, but if we give it to Senator Clinton that brings her to 243. Now let's look at Virginia, a state that Senator Clinton has campaigned aggressively in, the state that her running mate is a two-term Senator from, in fact Senator Warner's 2008 Senate win was one of only two Democratic Senate gains in the 2008 Republican megatsunami. In fact, let's go back to four years ago, Senator Obama lost the state by 3 points, 51-48, compare that to 2008, where then-Senator McCain won it by 9 pts over John Kerry, 53-44. In fact, let's zoom in on Northern Virginia, this is Loudoun County, an affluent, growing suburban county just outside of the Capital Beltway. McCain won it by 11 pts in 2008, 54-43, however 4 years later, that margin was just a point, 50-49. Hillary Clinton has campaigned aggressively all over Virginia, but this is a place to watch, if this comes in and Sarah Palin is losing here, particularly if it's more than 2-3 pts, then Senator Clinton will have reason to be very happy. She leads the poll of polls here in Virginia, by a margin of 50-47. If she gets Virginia, it gets her to 256, 14 electoral votes shy of the White House. So, how does she get there? One option is Florida, the premier bellwether, with its 29 electoral votes, voting for the winner every election since 1992, in the poll of polls, it's a Clinton lead but a narrow one at 49-47. Another option for Senator Clinton is Colorado, another formerly ruby red state like Virginia that has swung towards Democrats in recent years, in the poll of polls, both candidates are tied at 48. Lastly, let's look at Nevada, the home state of Vice President Palin's running mate, Senator Heller, the Vice President leads the poll of polls by a margin of 51-47, we considered moving Nevada to lean Republican, however the Democrats have a potent vote turnout operation in Nevada, headed by Senator Reid, who is running for re-election in what is sure to be a closely contested contest. Indeed if Senator Clinton can pull of the shocker and hold Nevada and flip Colorado, she can win the White House even without winning Florida. However, Florida really has this must win feel for both candidates, the only difference is Senator Clinton has a feasible, if difficult, path without Florida, Vice President Palin really doesn't have much of a path without Florida.

Wolf Blitzer: Thank you John, and we now have 6:00 poll closings at the top of the hour in Indiana and Kentucky, both expected to be safe Palin states, but both having hotly contested Senate races, which could tell us more about the battle for the Senate.

[S019]

6:00 PM poll closings

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 6:00 PM and polls have closed in most of Indiana and the eastern part of Kentucky. Let's now head over to John King on the Magic Wall.

John King: So, as expected Sarah Palin is leading in both of these states, and I fully expect that we'll be able to call them in an hour. However, there are two key Senate races in these states, Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, part of a political dynasty in the state and the 2012 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee is fighting for his political life against former Governor Mitch Daniels and in Kentucky, Senator Dan Mongiardo is facing Representative James Comer. Let's start with Kentucky and Rep Comer's base is in the west of the state which hasn't closed yet, but Senator Mongiardo's base in his past two elections was in the east and that has closed, notably coal country as well as the urban centers of Lexington and Louisville. Let's look at Breathlitt County, this is classic coal country, around 14,000 people and Sarah Palin is going to romp here. The question is how much can Senator Mongiardo outrun Senator Clinton and will it be enough? Well right now, Breathlitt County is around 60% in and it shows a narrow lead for Representative Comer. Senator Mongiardo won around 70% of the vote here in 2004 and around 60% in 2010, right now he's around 46-47%, that doesn't look like it's going to be anywhere near enough. Let's move over to Elliott County, this is a pretty Democratic county even federally and Democrats have won it in every election since its formation. Senator Mongiardo got around 70% here in 2004 and around the same in 2010, this time he's down to around 64-65%, while that doesn't seem like much of a fall and is consistent with federal democratic performances in the county, at least until the massive swing against Barack Obama in 2012, who only won the county with 55%, they aren't numbers consistent with a win in Kentucky. If nothing changes, this is looking like a Republican gain. Also let's look at Elliott County presidentially, it looks like Sarah Palin is ahead with around 56% of the vote, the trend that we saw in 2012 of massive swings towards Republicans in coal country Kentucky seems to be continuing and it is greatly hurting Senator Mongiardo's chances of re-election. Now let's move up to Indiana, much of the polls in the state have closed. It should be noted that Gary, a major Democratic vote center, is part of what has yet to close, so perhaps some hope for Democrats in the state. With around 50% in, Governor Daniels is leading by a margin of around 52-44. Let's look at Marion County, this is Indianapolis and some of its more inner suburbs. This is a reliably Democratic County and not much is expected to change there, but the margins here will make a difference. In 2004 and 2010, Senator Bayh coasted to re-election, winning counties all across the state and won around 65% of the vote here both times. The general consensus is that with his rural support across the state that he enjoyed in 2004 and 2010 expected to collapse, he needs a much better percentage out of Indianapolis, instead we're seeing a slight decline to around 62%. An example of this is Clay County, a rural county where Evan Bayh won around 65% of the vote in 2004, and around 60% in 2010, that seems to have collapsed to around 43% of the vote tonight. We haven't learned much new at this early stage, we expected these states to go for the Vice President and we expected collapsing rural margins to give these Democratic senators an uphill re-election battle, it seems that both of those statements are remaining true based off of the data that we have so far.

Presidential map so far (light shades indicate a lead)


Senate map so far (light shades indicate a lead)

33 Democrats and 33 Republicans not up for election

[OSR stands with Israel]

My prediction is :




Hillary Clinton wins the election by flipping VA Democratic for the first time since 1964. I think I’m the republicans pickup control of the senate though by flipping ND , SD , IN , KY , and  NC

[2016]

@Old School Republican,
I think Palin wins by winning Nevada (Senator Hellers Home State) Iowa, Wisconsin and Florida.