CA-Public Policy Institute of California: Biden +29

[Tender Branson]

September 4-13:

60% Biden/Harris (D)
31% Trump/Pence (R)
  3% Jorgensen/Cohen (L)
  2% Hawkins/Walker (G)

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2020.pdf

1.154 likely voters in the Presidential race:

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0920.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Biden’s margin increased by 5% since their May poll.

[kireev]

Biden is leading among whites by 21 points, while Hillary won them by only 5. While Biden's margin among Latinos actually shrank compared to 2016. We are going to have pretty beautiful trend maps if that holds.

[Fusternino]

R's up 54-42 in swing districts. Maybe Garcia wasn't a fluke.

[Horus]

R's up 54-42 in swing districts. Maybe Garcia wasn't a fluke.

Great to see. Hoping for big R swings in CA and NY.

[LimoLiberal]

R's up 54-42 in swing districts. Maybe Garcia wasn't a fluke.

n = 141 lol

[LimoLiberal]

These guys had Newsom +11 in October 2018 so it looks like Biden will be winning California by 42 points.

[Landslide Lyndon]

R's up 54-42 in swing districts. Maybe Garcia wasn't a fluke.

Or maybe they have a peculiar definition of what a competitive district is, especially since this number is almost identical to how Republicans perform in Republican-leaning districts (53-38).

[SevenEleven]

R's up 54-42 in swing districts. Maybe Garcia wasn't a fluke.

In the eight competitive California House districts according to the Cook
Political Report (districts 4, 10, 21, 22, 25, 39, 48, and 50), a majority (54%) favor the Republican
candidate and 42 percent favor the Democrat.

Lol.

[NOVA Green]

Throw it in the "Hopper" for averages I guess...

Still, these numbers appear to actually indicated a much worse scenario for Trump in California, than the top-line numbers suggest.

Look at the CNN 2016 CA PRES GE Exit Poll by Anglo / Non-Anglo:



So in 2016, 48% of CA voters were Anglo and went (50%-45% HRC).

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/california/president

The CA-PPIC Poll has an unweighted sample that is 67% Anglo (56%-35% Biden).

The Latino sample sizes of the PPIC poll are extremely small compared to the CNN 2016 Exit Poll, *and* it appears that they are likely understating the Latino Working Class and Younger voters...

If just the Anglo numbers are anywhere close to accurate here, CA might be much more of a bloodbath for Republicans than anticipated...

[VAR]

Newsom approval: 60/37 (+23, was 65/26)
CALeg approval: 45/43 (+2, was 56/32)
Trump approval: 32/67 (-35)
Feinstein approval: 46/45 (+1)
Harris approval: 56/38 (+18)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

San Francisco Bay:  Biden 71 - 18
Los Angeles:             Biden 69 - 23
OC/San Diego:          Biden 55 - 38
Inland Empire:          Biden 47 - 40 (Jo at 10%?)
Central Valley:          Biden 46 - 45

The Latino sample sizes of the PPIC poll are extremely small compared to the CNN 2016 Exit Poll, *and* it appears that they are likely understating the Latino Working Class and Younger voters...

If just the Anglo numbers are anywhere close to accurate here, CA might be much more of a bloodbath for Republicans than anticipated...

If this pans out, Republicans are gonna get slaughtered in State Leg races yet again. OC Republicans could very well only hold 1 Assembly seat & 1 State Senate seat.

[NOVA Green]

San Francisco Bay:  Biden 71 - 18
Los Angeles:             Biden 69 - 23
OC/San Diego:          Biden 55 - 38
Inland Empire:          Biden 47 - 40 (Jo at 10%?)
Central Valley:          Biden 46 - 45

The Latino sample sizes of the PPIC poll are extremely small compared to the CNN 2016 Exit Poll, *and* it appears that they are likely understating the Latino Working Class and Younger voters...

If just the Anglo numbers are anywhere close to accurate here, CA might be much more of a bloodbath for Republicans than anticipated...

If this pans out, Republicans are gonna get slaughtered in State Leg races yet again. OC Republicans could very well only hold 1 Assembly seat & 1 State Senate seat.

Yes--- that's a decent point...

Something else that stood out at me when I reviewed the poll was the regional % breakdown they cited (which you conveniently posted above)   

1.) Look at the just the Los Angeles County LV numbers for example...   (300 LV)---

PPIC Poll: (69-23-8)      Biden>Trump> 3rd Party/ Undecided / Would Not Vote

2016 GE PRES LA County: (72-22-6)  HRC>Trump>3rd Party

Sure is only a County level polling small sample size for after all a County with over 10 Million Residents.... so naturally huge MOE on polling sub-samples....

Still, again considering the heavily Anglo breakdown of the PPIC poll, I would not necessarily make too much hay on LA County itself, but even there reading between the tea-bags, it's pretty intuitive to see how these numbers do not look well for Mr. Trump running for his 2nd Term, where his "Latino Outreach" Program, may or may not be playing marginally well could potentially be transferable elsewhere...

Inland Empire PPIC-Poll:    (47%-40%-13%)--- (119 LV)

Depending upon how one defines the "Inland Empire" for this poll, (typically I think of it as Riverside and San Bernadino Counties), looked something like the following in '16...

Trump: 42-43%
HRC:    51 %

Again--- it is entirely plausible that the Inland Empire in fact continue to move against Trump 2.0..., since 70% of the POP of San Bernardino County are Non-Anglo, and 63% of the POP of Riverside County are Non-Anglo...

So again without attempting to skew or unskew polls, it appears that just looking at a few parts of SoCal, this "Anglo Poll" of Cali, likely under-represents a potential Tsunami waiting, especially considering the likely LV screens here are significantly understating Latino Voters in SoCal....

Sure Sanders was a Candidate who actually appealed and was more popular in Barrios and the Ciudades de California... 

Still, although Joe Biden might not be on the top of the mind of many Working & Middle-Class Latino Voters at this time with all of the issues we have experienced over the past Six Months, I have a strong suspicion that come November Biden can and will close the deal and jack up the numbers, with a stronger finish (Which naturally could potentially flip Tejas for example, not to mention locking down Arizona, and looking at Latino sub-margins to potentially flip GA & NC)...

Just another poll.... still what happens in CA will impact results elsewhere, that much is clear.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE: 4.3% for likely voters
Changes with May 19-26 poll

Biden 60% (+3)
Trump 31% (-2)
Jorgensen 3% (new)
Hawkins 2% (new)
Would not vote 1% (-1)
Someone else 0% (but some voters) (-4%)
Don't know 2% (-1)

[NOVA Green]

MoE: 4.3% for likely voters
Changes with May 19-26 poll

Biden 60% (+3)
Trump 31% (-2)
Jorgensen 3% (new)
Hawkins 2% (new)
Would not vote 1% (-1)
Someone else 0% (but some voters) (-4%)
Don't know 2% (-1)

I am assuming their previous poll was an RV Model?

So regardless the "someone else", basically translates to the GRN/LBT Votes from this recent poll?

Naturally if anyone is looking at the "swing district" numbers in this current poll, likely better to look at various Internal Polls of CA-CD's, since although Atlas might have their own definitions of Swing Districts, I don't believe they have provided their own definitions of such districts, which naturally involve not only an MOE question even if we can match their "Swing District" defs to ours...

Naturally the key question regarding CA-DEM Turnout will also involve straight-ticket and down-ballot races, where typically much higher rates drop-off dramatically the further down we go down the ticket...

[wbrocks67]

Given the propensity for CA polls to severely underestimate Dems, this is a bad bad poll for Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump promised us the end to amnesty due to the wall, but immigrants are still tunneling under the wall; consequently, Trump cannot stand there with a clear face in debate that he reformed amnesty, many Health clinics are overrun with blue collar Latinos and AA with toddlers with Covid. Making it difficult for preventive care for healthy people

That's why Biden is winning in all the Latino states, immigration reform will help amnesty

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: California President by Public Policy Institute of CA on 2020-09-13

Summary: D: 60%, R: 31%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE: 4.3% for likely voters
Changes with May 19-26 poll

Biden 60% (+3)
Trump 31% (-2)
Jorgensen 3% (new)
Hawkins 2% (new)
Would not vote 1% (-1)
Someone else 0% (but some voters) (-4%)
Don't know 2% (-1)

I am assuming their previous poll was an RV Model?

No - both used a likely voter model. I would not have posted trends otherwise.