If you were told the GOP would pass 286 electoral votes in 2014-2015, How would you have the map?

[Chips]

How would you have predicted the map in 2016 if you were told early on in the campaign that the GOP candidate would surpass Bush's 286 total in 2004?

Me? How about 306 but with a slightly different combination of states.

[Breton Racer]

That map would have looked very similar to Bush's '04 map with the Republican candidate winning NH, OH, VA, CO, FL, IA, NC and NV. Overall the map is 291-247 for the Republican, the popular vote would be between +1 for the Republican to +.5 for the Democrat.

[bagelman]

OP's map but trade ME-02 for NV.

[Agonized-Statism]

I assumed Ted Cruz would get the nomination in late 2015 and thought he would lose, believing that the libertarians would be the future and that the Sun Belt would be the way there. Here's a Hillary 2016 loss according to that mindset.

Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH)
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) / Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) ✓

[Chips]

This question crossed my mind again recently. My map remains unchanged.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This question crossed my mind again recently. My map remains unchanged.

I think I agree with your map.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here was my battleground map from Dec 2014:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=204256.msg4416564#msg4416564

So probably like this

Walker/Rubio 291
Clinton/Castro 247


Yes NV over IA was dumb but at the time I thought IA was a liberal state 

[Chips]

Here was my battleground map from Dec 2014:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=204256.msg4416564#msg4416564

So probably like this

Walker/Rubio 291
Clinton/Castro 247


Yes NV over IA was dumb but at the time I thought IA was a liberal state  

The map still looked plausible for a Walker matchup at the time. I figured either Bush or Rubio would've been the nominee for most of 2014 and 2015. I always believed it was a long shot for Walker. My thought at the time was that if the GOP was having a good night, they would recapture most of the close-ish swing states from 2012 (under 6 points) leading to GOP victories in CO, IA, NH, OH, PA, VA and FL. ME-02 was iffy but the 2014 result of that district where the GOP picked it up despite most predicting Dems would hold on gave me a feeling that something was building up there and that we could easily see it flip in 2016 which proved to be true all along.

My final map for 2016 was Trump 299 with VA and NV trading places.

[President Johnson]

Actually this. I remember there were some polls in 2013/14 that showed Republicans ahead in Colorado. I admit that I got things wrong about the Rust Belt, especially before the 2012 election. For example, I always thought Pennsylvania was as Safe Democratic as Illinois.

[Chips]

Actually this. I remember there were some polls in 2013/14 that showed Republicans ahead in Colorado. I admit that I got things wrong about the Rust Belt, especially before the 2012 election. For example, I always thought Pennsylvania was as Safe Democratic as Illinois.

That looked like plausible Clinton vs. Walker map.