The Maine numbers look silly, but taken in the context of great polling for Biden in MI, WI, and MN, this looks like the only Trump victory map possible:
Trump 280 Biden 258
Ohio: Must win
Georgia: Must win
North Carolina: Must win
Florida: Must win
Arizona: Must win to avoid a tie (Without AZ, NE-02 and ME-02 become must-wins)
Pennsylvania: Must win
Trump holds tenuous leads in OH and GA (and TX!!!), NC is tied, he's still behind in FL, and he's significantly behind in AZ and PA.
Trump needs to sweep these to win. By 538 estimates, Biden is more likely to win Georgia than Trump is to win Pennsylvania. Biden is almost as likely to win Texas as Trump is to win AZ. Biden blowing Trump off the map and getting 400 EVs is about as likely as Trump winning the EC.
I don't buy that Trump's numbers are this bad in Maine, but if they are only, say, 5 points off, it paints a very grim picture of his chances in the EC.
