Quinnipiac KY, SC, ME: Trump+20, Trump+6, Biden+21

[wbrocks67]

ME-01: Biden+32
ME-02: Biden+9

White college voters in ME: Biden+48 !!!
White no college voters in ME: Biden+9

I think Quinnipiac will be downgraded to C following the election.

Maine's probably a bit too D, but the SC and KY #s look about right.

[wbrocks67]

Polling this week seems to indicate that Biden's lead has grown across the board.

Virtually every state poll is better for him than 2 weeks ago, some dramatically so.  Virtually every national poll is a bit worse.  It's fascinating.

We're in a weird space where it's the opposite of weeks ago, where his state polls looked worse but his national looked better.

I think the problem too is the schedule of high quality polls. If you look at the stronger online polls though, we've gotten many +8 and +9s. But we go a ton of time without a stretch of high quality (NBC/ABC, etc.) so I think that's also a problem.

[wbrocks67]

ME-01: Biden+32
ME-02: Biden+9

White college voters in ME: Biden+48 !!!
White no college voters in ME: Biden+9

I think Quinnipiac will be downgraded to C following the election.

Maine's probably a bit too D, but the SC and KY #s look about right.

A bit too D?

Obama won Maine by 17% in 2008. You never know.

These #s line up with what Civiqs is showing too - they have Trump's approval at 36/61, essentially what this poll is showing.

They're also pretty close in Kentucky (+20 approval) and SC (+1 approval)

[wbrocks67]

The Maine poll is as believeable as the other Minnesota +16 poll that came out recently. Also doubt Trump is only up six in South Carolina. More likely is eight, nine or ten. Kentucky is Safe Republican anyway, though Joe Biden might improve a little from 2016.

I don't think SC is that unbelievable. If Biden is up 8/9 nationwide, then he can easily be losing only about 5-7 to Trump. That would be about half of Trump's 2016 margin (+14). Not to mention, McMaster only won by 8 in 2018 and the Dem was a nobody.

[wbrocks67]

Obama won Maine by 15 in 2012 and 17 in 2008 so I don't think this is that farfetched assuming it kind of snaps back, given Biden's strengths with old people and white people.

Also again, Civiqs has the same approvals essentially for all 3 which i think is interesting. So it's not an inherently anti-GOP poll inside.

[wbrocks67]

The reason for Biden's big lead in Maine, according to cross-tabs, is that senior voters in Maine are swinging HARD against Trump. 65-67% of the 65+ older crowd support Biden over Trump consistently in the cross-tabs.

That's devastating in a state like Maine. Obviously, it's just one poll but it fits a national trend of Trump collapsing with senior voters.

I don't think a lot of pundits or media outlets are really grasping the movement among seniors this election to Biden. Seems like a very underrepresented story.

[wbrocks67]

The people who buy those ME numbers or think they’re only "a bit" too D-friendly should be embarrassed of themselves. Quinnipiac has lost a lot of credibility during the Trump years, not that it was ever particularly great to begin with (remember Unbeatable Titans Toomey and Beauprez?).

All of the Trump approval ratings line up with what Civiqs is saying as well. So are Q AND Civiqs wrong? Not to mention, Kentucky being Trump +20 and SC +6 pretty much exactly line up.