Still Safe R. Peterson isn’t outrunning Biden by 20+ points.
That is absurd. Peterson is no less favored this year than he was in 2014-2018 when his races became competitive. And he won when Hillary lost by 30 so he clearly is capable of outrunning unpopular Democratic tickets in this district. I wouldn't say he's favored, but it's not Safe R at all.
By Safe R, I don’t necessarily mean the margin (Peterson won’t lose by more than 5-6) I mean the likelihood. I just don’t see how Peterson gets enough ticket splitting to survive Trump carrying this district by high double digits or more.
Maybe, but he got plenty of Trump voters in 2016 and 2018 and won by about 4 each time so I wouldn't think it's that terribly unlikely that he does it again.
This will be with Trump at the top of the ticket, unlike in 2018. He was on the ballot in 2016 as well, but that was the first time and I feel many rural areas like MN-07 have only become more hostile to Democrats. Also Petersons margin in 2018 was smaller than his margin in 2016 (5.1 in 2016 versus 4.2 in 2018), I think this is the year his luck runs out.
