MN-07: Why the agriculture industry is all in on sending Collin Peterson back to Congress
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  MN-07: Why the agriculture industry is all in on sending Collin Peterson back to Congress
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Author Topic: MN-07: Why the agriculture industry is all in on sending Collin Peterson back to Congress  (Read 1512 times)
Pollster
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« on: September 16, 2020, 12:35:59 PM »

In former Minnesota Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach, Republicans thought they had found the perfect candidate to unseat the fifteen-term incumbent. The ag industry doesn’t appear to share their enthusiasm.
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WD
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2020, 12:42:38 PM »

Still Safe R. Peterson isn’t outrunning Biden by 20+ points.
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Canis
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2020, 12:42:58 PM »

Obviously during Petersons years representing the district in congress hes made connections with the agriculture industry as is smart in a district like MN-07 whether or not Peterson can make the lift one more time and hold the seat remains to be seen the district has been getting redder and redder and Trump will likely carry the district by strong double digits I rate it a tossup but this is a good sign for Peterson its likely closer to Tilt R than Tilt D IMO
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DrScholl
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2020, 12:48:10 PM »

It makes sense that they would want to keep the agriculture committee chair who has a ton of seniority. It doesn't really matter how much a challenger supports agriculture they are still going to have no seniority.
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voice_of_resistance
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2020, 01:26:49 PM »


Good! Peterson's a tireless fighter for small farmers, and plus, if Biden is overperforming by as much as the polls show, he's going to be nearing Obama 2012 levels of non college white support, which would easily put Peterson over the top. Tossup.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2020, 01:51:51 PM »


That is absurd. Peterson is no less favored this year than he was in 2014-2018 when his races became competitive. And he won when Hillary lost by 30 so he clearly is capable of outrunning unpopular Democratic tickets in this district. I wouldn't say he's favored, but it's not Safe R at all.
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WD
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2020, 01:55:35 PM »


That is absurd. Peterson is no less favored this year than he was in 2014-2018 when his races became competitive. And he won when Hillary lost by 30 so he clearly is capable of outrunning unpopular Democratic tickets in this district. I wouldn't say he's favored, but it's not Safe R at all.

By Safe R, I don’t necessarily mean the margin (Peterson won’t lose by more than 5-6) I mean the likelihood. I just don’t see how Peterson gets enough ticket splitting to survive Trump carrying this district by high double digits or more.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2020, 01:59:19 PM »


That is absurd. Peterson is no less favored this year than he was in 2014-2018 when his races became competitive. And he won when Hillary lost by 30 so he clearly is capable of outrunning unpopular Democratic tickets in this district. I wouldn't say he's favored, but it's not Safe R at all.

By Safe R, I don’t necessarily mean the margin (Peterson won’t lose by more than 5-6) I mean the likelihood. I just don’t see how Peterson gets enough ticket splitting to survive Trump carrying this district by high double digits or more.

Maybe, but he got plenty of Trump voters in 2016 and 2018 and won by about 4 each time so I wouldn't think it's that terribly unlikely that he does it again.
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ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2020, 02:00:15 PM »

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WD
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2020, 02:05:06 PM »


That is absurd. Peterson is no less favored this year than he was in 2014-2018 when his races became competitive. And he won when Hillary lost by 30 so he clearly is capable of outrunning unpopular Democratic tickets in this district. I wouldn't say he's favored, but it's not Safe R at all.

By Safe R, I don’t necessarily mean the margin (Peterson won’t lose by more than 5-6) I mean the likelihood. I just don’t see how Peterson gets enough ticket splitting to survive Trump carrying this district by high double digits or more.

Maybe, but he got plenty of Trump voters in 2016 and 2018 and won by about 4 each time so I wouldn't think it's that terribly unlikely that he does it again.

This will be with Trump at the top of the ticket, unlike in 2018. He was on the ballot in 2016 as well, but that was the first time and I feel many rural areas like MN-07 have only become more hostile to Democrats. Also Petersons margin in 2018 was smaller than his margin in 2016 (5.1 in 2016 versus 4.2 in 2018), I think this is the year his luck runs out.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2020, 03:22:57 PM »

Seniority matters
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2020, 03:39:17 PM »


That's just dumb. No way does any 15 term incumbent have no chance. Peterson may lose but no way is this race Safe R. FWIW I have it tilt D/tossup.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2020, 04:36:51 PM »


That's just dumb. No way does any 15 term incumbent have no chance. Peterson may lose but no way is this race Safe R. FWIW I have it tilt D/tossup.

I pray that Collin Peterson holds on one last time, and given the circumstances, he does still have a chance. It would be a shame if polarization resulted in his defeat this year.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2020, 04:54:29 PM »

I have never been on the MN-7 Safe R train.

That being said I still expect Peterson to lose.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2020, 05:51:04 PM »

There’s a good chance Peterson will lose, but given he managed to win in 2016 and it is his name on the ballot not Hillary Clinton or Nancy Pelosi it’s just ridiculous to act like after 30 years he’s got no chance.
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Pericles
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« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2020, 06:10:47 PM »

I don't think it's Safe R, but the trends are bad for Peterson-in particular barely winning in 2018 even narrower than 2016. It is probably Lean R now that it's a presidential year and he has a strong opponent.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2020, 11:05:23 AM »

The voters will vote for Fishbach anyway
"I like the work he does for muh farm but I dont want antifa to burn my house down!"
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Lognog
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« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2020, 11:23:49 AM »

The voters will vote for Fishbach anyway
"I like the work he does for muh farm but I dont want antifa to burn my house down!"

That would work in any other district like this but Peterson should not be underestimated, given he's survived some pretty tough years (10, 14, 16, 18)
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #18 on: September 17, 2020, 11:29:46 AM »

Gosh, I feel like an alien when it comes to the subject of Collin Peterson. His race is a tossup, pure and simple, same as it was in 2018, 2016 (arguably a much more dangerous year for him), and 2014.

He's probably more likely to lose now than he ever has been, but there's no reason to think he is overall likely to lose, let alone sure to lose.
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gerritcole
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« Reply #19 on: September 17, 2020, 01:41:03 PM »

I guess dems support big industry here?
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Red Wall
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« Reply #20 on: September 17, 2020, 02:56:48 PM »


That is absurd. Peterson is no less favored this year than he was in 2014-2018 when his races became competitive. And he won when Hillary lost by 30 so he clearly is capable of outrunning unpopular Democratic tickets in this district. I wouldn't say he's favored, but it's not Safe R at all.
He managed to do worse in 2016 than in 2014 which was a GOP wave year then followed it by doing worse in 2018 which was a dem wave year. At this point it doesn't matter the type of year he's on the ballot, good or bad for dems, he loses support every cycle.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #21 on: September 17, 2020, 03:00:25 PM »


That is absurd. Peterson is no less favored this year than he was in 2014-2018 when his races became competitive. And he won when Hillary lost by 30 so he clearly is capable of outrunning unpopular Democratic tickets in this district. I wouldn't say he's favored, but it's not Safe R at all.
He managed to do worse in 2016 than in 2014 which was a GOP wave year then followed it by doing worse in 2018 which was a dem wave year. At this point it doesn't matter the type of year he's on the ballot, good or bad for dems, he loses support every cycle.

Even if he declines by a combination of his dropoff in 18 and 16, Peterson still has 50% of the vote, and his decline in 2018 was negligible, especially when you consider how incumbent Dems did in red states that year.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #22 on: September 17, 2020, 04:40:01 PM »

Poor Peterson.

Sadly, he is gone.

Like Comstock in 2018.

Realignments erodes their support.

He'll be Biden's Agriculture Secy. or a Chief of Staff
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #23 on: September 17, 2020, 06:52:52 PM »

I don't want to get hopeful, but everything Peterson needs to happen in order to stand a fighting chance is happening.
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voice_of_resistance
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« Reply #24 on: September 17, 2020, 07:34:46 PM »

I don't want to get hopeful, but everything Peterson needs to happen in order to stand a fighting chance is happening.
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