MN-07: Why the agriculture industry is all in on sending Collin Peterson back to Congress

[DaleCooper]

Still Safe R. Peterson isn’t outrunning Biden by 20+ points.

That is absurd. Peterson is no less favored this year than he was in 2014-2018 when his races became competitive. And he won when Hillary lost by 30 so he clearly is capable of outrunning unpopular Democratic tickets in this district. I wouldn't say he's favored, but it's not Safe R at all.

[DaleCooper]

Still Safe R. Peterson isn’t outrunning Biden by 20+ points.

That is absurd. Peterson is no less favored this year than he was in 2014-2018 when his races became competitive. And he won when Hillary lost by 30 so he clearly is capable of outrunning unpopular Democratic tickets in this district. I wouldn't say he's favored, but it's not Safe R at all.

By Safe R, I don’t necessarily mean the margin (Peterson won’t lose by more than 5-6) I mean the likelihood. I just don’t see how Peterson gets enough ticket splitting to survive Trump carrying this district by high double digits or more.

Maybe, but he got plenty of Trump voters in 2016 and 2018 and won by about 4 each time so I wouldn't think it's that terribly unlikely that he does it again.

[DaleCooper]

Gosh, I feel like an alien when it comes to the subject of Collin Peterson. His race is a tossup, pure and simple, same as it was in 2018, 2016 (arguably a much more dangerous year for him), and 2014.

He's probably more likely to lose now than he ever has been, but there's no reason to think he is overall likely to lose, let alone sure to lose.

[DaleCooper]

Still Safe R. Peterson isn’t outrunning Biden by 20+ points.

That is absurd. Peterson is no less favored this year than he was in 2014-2018 when his races became competitive. And he won when Hillary lost by 30 so he clearly is capable of outrunning unpopular Democratic tickets in this district. I wouldn't say he's favored, but it's not Safe R at all.

He managed to do worse in 2016 than in 2014 which was a GOP wave year then followed it by doing worse in 2018 which was a dem wave year. At this point it doesn't matter the type of year he's on the ballot, good or bad for dems, he loses support every cycle.

Even if he declines by a combination of his dropoff in 18 and 16, Peterson still has 50% of the vote, and his decline in 2018 was negligible, especially when you consider how incumbent Dems did in red states that year.