French Deparmental and Regional elections - 20th/27th June 2021

[Sir John Johns]

IPSOS exit polls:

Bourgogne-Franche-Comté
Marie-Guite Dufay (PS/PCF) 26.2%
Julien Odoul (RN) 23.8%
Gilles Platret (LR-DLF) 20.9%
Denis Thuriot (LREM/Modem) 12.7%
Stéphanie Modde (EELV) 9.9%
Bastien Faudot (LFI/G.s) 4.1%
Claire Rocher (LO) 2.4%

Hauts-de-France
Xavier Bertrand (LR/UDI) 43.1%
Sébastien Chenu (RN) 24.4%
Karima Delli (EELV/PS/FI) 17.5%
Laurent Pietraszewski (LREM/Modem) 8.5%
Éric Pecqueur (LO) 3.7%
José Evrard (DLF) 2.2%
Audric Alexandre (Allons Enfants/Nous Citoyens/PACE/VOLT) 0.6%

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Laurent Wauquiez (LR/UDI) 43.8%
Fabienne Grébert (EELV/G.s) 14.0%
Andréa Kotarac (RN) 12.9%
Najat Vallaud-Belkacem (PS/PCF) 11.6%
Bruno Bonnell (LREM/Modem) 9.0%
Cécile Cukierman (PCF/LFI) 5.8%
Chantal Gomez (LO) 1.7%
Shella Gill (Union Essentielle; ‘citizens’ list’) 0.7%
Farid Omeir (UDMF; Muslim interests party) 0.5%

Grand Est
Jean Rottner (LR/UDI) 31.5%
Laurent Jacobelli (RN) 20.7%
Éliane Romani (EELV/PS/PCF) 14.3%
Brigitte Klinkert (LREM/Modem) 10.7%
Aurélie Filippetti (LFI/G.s) 8.3%
Florian Philippot (LP) 6.7%
Martin Meyer (Unser Land, regionalist) 4.5%
Louise Fève (LO) 2.7%
Adil Tyane (UDMF) 0.6%

Centre-Val-de-Loire
François Bonneau (PS/PCF) 25.6%
Aleksandar Nikolic (RN) 21.7%
Nicolas Forissier (LR/UDI) 18.7%
Marc Fesneau (LREM/Modem) 15.5%
Charles Fournier (EELV/LFI/G.s) 11.4%
Jérémy Clément (Ecologist) 4.5%
Farida Megdoud (LO) 2.6%

Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Alain Rousset (PS/PCF) 28.6%
Edwige Diaz (RN) 17.9%
Geneviève Darrieussecq (LREM/Modem/UDI) 15.6%
Nicolas Thierry (EELV/G.s) 12.2%
Nicolas Florian (LR) 11.4%
Eddie Puyjalon (hunters+Jean Lassalle) 7.2%
Clémence Guetté (LFI/NPA) 5.4%
Guillaume Perchet (LO) 1.7%

Bretagne
Loïg Chesnais-Girard (PS/PCF) 20.8%
Thierry Burlot (LREM/Modem/UDI) 16.2%
Isabelle Le Callenec (LR) 15.7%
Gilles Pennelle (RN) 14.4%
Claire Desmares-Poirrier (EELV/G.s) 14.2%
Daniel Cueff (Ecologist) 6.6%
Pierre-Yves Cadalen (LFI) 5.5%
Valérie Hamon (LO) 2.3%
Joannic Martin (Parti Breton, regionalist) 1.7%
David Cabas (DLF) 1.5%
Christophe Daviet (Un nôtre monde, antivax) 0.6%
Yves Chauvel (DVD) 0.3%
Kamel Elahiar (UDMF, Muslim interest party) 0.2%

Occitanie
Carole Delga (PS/PCF) 39.6%
Jean-Paul Garraud (RN) 22.8%
Aurélien Prédié (LR/UDI) 12.1%
Vincent Terrail-Novés (LREM/MODEM) 8.4%
Antoine Maurice (EELV/G.s) 8.4%
Myriam Martin (LFI/NPA) 5.0%
Jean-Luc Davezac (regionalist) 0.9%
Anthony Le Boursicaud (Union Essentielle) 0.4%

Corsica
Gilles Simeoni (Femu a Corsica) 28.0%
Laurent Marcangelli (LR) 24.9%
Jean-Christophe Angelini (PNC) 14.3%
Paul-Félix Benedetti (Core in Fronte) 8.8%
Jean-Guy Talamoni (Corsica Libera) 7.3%
Jean-Charles Orsucci (LREM/DVG) 5.2%
François Filoni (RN) 4.0%
Agnès Simonpietri (EELV) 3.6%
Michel Stefani (PCF) 3.2%
Jean-Antoine Giacomi (far-right) 0.7%

Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur
Thierry Mariani (RN) 34.8%
Renaud Muselier (LR-LREM) 33.7%
Jean-Laurent Félizia (EELV-PS) 15.2%
Isabelle Bonnet (LO) 2.9%
Hervé Guerrera (regionalist) 2.6%
Valérie Laupies (Southern League, far-right) 2.6%
Noël Chuisano (DLF) 2.5%
Mikaël Vincenzi (Un nôtre monde) 0.1%

Normandie
Hervé Morin (LR/UDI/Modem) 35.1%
Nicolas Bay (RN) 20.4%
Mélanie Boulanger (PS/EELV/G.s) 18.3%
Laurent Bonnaterre (LREM) 11.6%
Sébastien Jumel (PCF/LFI) 9.8%
Pascal Le Manach (LO) 3.6%
Stéphanie Kerbarh (LREM dissident) 1.2%

Pays-de-la-Loire
Christelle Morançais (LR/UDI) 34.1%
Matthieu Orphelin (EELV/LFI/G.s) 18.4%
Guillaume Garot (PS/PCF) 18.4%
Hervé Juvin (RN) 11.9%
François de Rugy (LREM/Modem) 11.1%
Cécile Bayle de Jessé (DLF) 3.0%
Eddy Le Beller (LO) 2.5%
Linda Rigaudeau (Un nôtre monde) 0.6%

Incumbent regional presidents all placing ahead. Bad results for the RN (which lost ground compared to 2015, notably in PACA and Hauts de France), bad results for LREM which is lacking local elected officials. Results for the LFI are also pretty bad while PS and EELV have received unhoped results.

[Mike88]

Election results page:

https://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/regionales-2021/index.html

[parochial boy]

Bevet Breizh!

[Sir John Johns]

Ipsos exit poll:

Île-de-France
Valérie Pécresse (Libres/LR/UDI) 34.2%
Jordan Bardella (RN) 13.9%
Julien Bayou (EELV/G.s) 13.7%
Laurent Saint-Martin (LREM-Modem) 11.8%
Audrey Pulvar (PS) 11.2%
Clémentine Autain (LFI/PCF) 10.1%
Victor Pailhac (animals’ rights) 1.9%
Nathalie Arthaud (LO) 1.7%
Éric Berlingen (UDMF) 0.7%
Lionel Brot (yellow jacket/citizen’s list) 0.6%
Fabiola Conti (Volt/PACE/Nous Citoyens/À nous la démocratie) 0.2%

Every major left-wing lists over 10% but Bayou is ahead. A setback for Hidalgo in her plans to run for president as she was strongly supporting Pulvar. Pécresse may need a fusion of her list with LREM’s one or its withdrawal to be sure been reelected, which will not help her in case she has presidential ambitions for 2022. Meanwhile, in Hauts-de-France, putting Dupont-Moretti on the LREM list was reportedly the strategy imagined by Macron to strengthen the Macronista list, bring it over the 10% threshold and force Bertrand to seek a fusion with the LREM list in the runoff to prevent a victory of the RN, hence ruining his posture as an opponent to Macron and undermining his presidential hopes; this one has spectacularly backfired: the RN has tanked from 40.6% in 2015 to 24.4%, Bertrand is well ahead and ensured to be reelected without merging his list while the LREM list can’t go to the runoff.

At this point, I think Bertrand will be the LR candidate in 2022 (even if he has left the party) as Wauquiez has probably moved too much to the right while all other candidates are too weak: Baroin is an empty suit and doesn’t even seem interested into a presidential bid, Retailleau is pretty unknown and his strong fiscally-right-and-socially-right stances will be hard to sell to French voters, Sarkozy has been sentenced and outmoded and let’s not talk about complete joke candidacies like mayor of Cannes David Lisnard (who?) or mayor of La Garenne-Colombes and chief of Pompidou Hospital Emergency Services Philippe Juvin (how that guy, in addition of these two jobs, manages to find the time to appear very regularly on TV, write a book, head the LR departmental federation and plan a presidential campaign is beyond me).

[parochial boy]

The thing is, as things stand, this is all rather reminiscant of the municipals last year in so far as it's disspointing for LREM (which we knew already), dissapointing for the RN (more of a surprise); and a little more encouraging than expected for the "traditional" parties in LR and the PS. All in a way that seems to rather contradict all the national/presidential level polling.

In reality you can put it down to LREM's lack of local notables - a bit - because it's not like Dupond-Moretti & cie aren't all big figres; and the same with the RN - a bit - because the fact remains that they seem to be down on 2015 actually, and there aren't the same excuses here that they had in the municipals.

So I live in hope - but not much - that there is a potential route in 2022 that isn't what the polling and the discourse is all suggesting. It seems a stretch, but the fact is, Macron is still widely hated beyond his core support of ~25% of the electorate... and Le Pen too. The reason they poll well is down to how bad the alternatives are, not down to the fact that people actually like them.

[Oryxslayer]

So I live in hope - but not much - that there is a potential route in 2022 that isn't what the polling and the discourse is all suggesting. It seems a stretch, but the fact is, Macron is still widely hated beyond his core support of ~25% of the electorate... and Le Pen too. The reason they poll well is down to how bad the alternatives are, not down to the fact that people actually like them.

You do realize that a candidate only needs a core support of 25-30% to guarantee advancement in a two-round runoff system? Said systems benefit those with decently-sized and supportive bases of support. All you need is enough partisans are the rest of the electorate will be forced to decide which of you is least worst - see the recent Peruvian contest. Peru is actually a great example of how the flaws in these systems trend towards electoral instability and net unpopularity. To have a third candidate hit the 25% mark despite the wide field would be statistically hard if not impossible.

[Lechasseur]

It is a disaster for RN and En Marche. That's why I don't believe in inevitable Le Pen-Macron run off for 2022

The difference being that LREM wasn't expected to do anything in these elections.

RN was and underperformed. This was definitely a worse result for RN than LREM.

[Lechasseur]

In reality you can put it down to LREM's lack of local notables - a bit - because it's not like Dupond-Moretti & cie aren't all big figres; and the same with the RN - a bit - because the fact remains that they seem to be down on 2015 actually, and there aren't the same excuses here that they had in the municipals.

That excuse works better with LREM than RN. With LREM they had no notables running this time round. RN did (for example, Mariani in PACA).

Yet again a reason why I think the results were worse for RN than LREM.

[parochial boy]

So I live in hope - but not much - that there is a potential route in 2022 that isn't what the polling and the discourse is all suggesting. It seems a stretch, but the fact is, Macron is still widely hated beyond his core support of ~25% of the electorate... and Le Pen too. The reason they poll well is down to how bad the alternatives are, not down to the fact that people actually like them.

You do realize that a candidate only needs a core support of 25-30% to guarantee advancement in a two-round runoff system? Said systems benefit those with decently-sized and supportive bases of support. All you need is enough partisans are the rest of the electorate will be forced to decide which of you is least worst - see the recent Peruvian contest. Peru is actually a great example of how the flaws in these systems trend towards electoral instability and net unpopularity. To have a third candidate hit the 25% mark despite the wide field would be statistically hard if not impossible.

Yes, I am aware of how the presidential election functions. The point is, a majority of the electorate viscerally hate one or both of Le Pen and Macron, and one of the defining features of the French electorate is a weak party system and weak party loyalties which means that polling intentions can change very quickly when minds start to be focussed (cf, among other examples, the rise and fall of Chevènement in 2002, or even more pertinent, the fall and fall of Balladur in 1995). After all, you only need to look at 2017 to see what can happen to a candidate with a solid 20% base, but who is widely hated by the rest of the electorate.


I'm not saying I think it will happen, but there remains the possibilty that a candidate on either the left or right manages to rally round the 25% of the vote or so it would take to knock out one of either Macron or Le Pen.

That excuse works better with LREM than RN. With LREM they had no notables running this time round. RN did (for example, Mariani in PACA).

Yet again a reason why I think the results were worse for RN than LREM.

Yeah, worse for RN - but LREM still had Dupond-Moretti in the Hauts-de-France; Marlène Schiappa heading the list in Paris and Gabriel Attal on a list in Essonne (or was it Hauts-de-Seine, the ninety-something departments are all indistinguishable imho) among others. Those are all pretty big national profiles, even if without the local fiefdoms that Laurent Wauquiez or whoever might have.

[jaichind]

https://www.lexpress.fr/actualites/1/societe/regionales-lrem-prendra-ses-responsabilites-partout-ou-il-y-a-un-risque-avere-de-victoire-du-rn-annonce-guerini_2153276.html

It seems LREM will withdraw from 2nd round where there is a chance of RN victory.

[windjammer]

PACA is going to be a toss up as the left will not withdraw

[FredLindq]

Updated.

Summary of the first round

Île-de-France
Candidate              Party                 First round
Valérie Pécresse    SL-LR-UDI-MEI     35,9%
Jordan Bardella           RN-LDP              13,1%
 Julien Bayou      EÉLV-G·s-CÉ-GÉ            13,0 (34,3% in total)
(Merged list with    Audrey Pulvar, PS-PRG-GRS 11,1% and Clémentine Autain  LFI-PCF 10,2%)    
Laurent Saint-Martin   LREM-MoDem-Agir  11,8%
 
It seems like Laurent Saint-Martin   LREM-MoDem-Agir  11,8% will not withdraw and support Valérie Pécresse   in the second round.
                
Projection: Toss up between Right and Left, Left might gain


Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Candidate              Party                 First round
Laurent Wauquiez   LR-UDI-LC-LMR  43,8%
Fabienne Grébert   EÉLV-G·s-GÉ-MdP-ND-AE 14,5% (32,0% in total)
(Merged with Cécile Cukierman   PCF-LFI-E! 5,6% Najat Vallaud-Belkacem  PS-PRG-GRS-CÉ-PCF diss. 11,4%)
Andréa Kotarac   PL-RN-LDP-LAF   12,3%

Bruno Bonnell  from MR-LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP got 9,9% and failed to enter the second round which will mainly benefit Laurent Wauquiez.

Projection: Safe LR (Right) - Right Hold


Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Candidate              Party                 First round
Alain Rousset      PS-PRG-PCF-PP-LEF   28,8%
Edwige Diaz   RN-LDP-PL-LAF      18,2%
Geneviève Darrieussecq    MoDem-LREM-Agir-TdP-UDI-MR 13,7%
Nicolas Florian   LR-LC-UDI diss.-MR diss.   12,5%
Nicolas Thierry   EÉLV-G·s-GÉ-CÉ-GRS-PA 12,1%

Nota bene. No merger between PS and EELV lists or the list lead by Clémence Guetté  LFI-NPA diss.-PCF diss. 5,7%)

Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold


Occitanie
Candidate              Party                 First round
Carole Delga      PS-PRG-PCF-PP-MRC-GRS-OE 39,6% (53,5% in total)
Jean-Paul Garraud   LDP-RN-PL-LAF    22,6%
Aurélien Pradié   LR-UDI-LC-LMR   12,2%

Nota bene. No merger between  PS and the lists led by Antoine Maurice, EÉLV-G•s-GÉ-CÉ-PA-RPS-MEI-POC 8,8%, and  and Myriam Martin, LFI-PG-E!-GDS-NPA 5,1%.
Vincent Terrail-Novès  from DVC-LREM-MoDem-Agir-MR-TdP  got 8,8% % and failed to enter the second round which will mainly benefit Aurélien Pradié  

Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold


Hauts-de-France
Candidate              Party                 First round
Xavier Bertrand    LR-UDI-SL-LMR    41,4%
Sébastien Chenu   RN-LDP-CNIP    24,4%
Karima Delli      EÉLV-PS-PRG-PCF-G·s-LFI-GÉ  19,0%

Laurent Pietraszewski  from  LREM-MoDem-Agir got 9,1% % and failed to enter the second round which will mainly benefit Xavier Bertrand  

Projection: Safe LR (Right) - Right Hold


Grand Est
Candidate              Party                 First round
Jean Rottner      LR-UDI-MR-MHAN-LMRNote  31,2%
Laurent Jacobelli   RN-LDP-CNIP-PL-DR-LAF  21,1%
Éliane Romani      EÉLV-PS-PCF-CÉ-GÉ-MdP  14,6%
Brigitte Klinkert   DVD-LREM-TdP-MoDem-A 10,8%
  
Nota bene. No merger between PS and the list led by Aurélie Filippetti  G·s-LFI-GRS-LRDG-GDS-PS diss.-PCF diss. 8,6%.
It seems like Brigitte Klinkert (DVD) will not withdraw and support Jean Rottner (LR) in the second round.

Projection: Leans LR (Right) - Right Hold


Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
Candidate              Party                 First round
Thierry Mariani      LDP-RN-CNIP  36,4%
Renaud Muselier    LR-UDI-LREM-MoDem-Agir-LMR 31,9%


Jean-Laurent Félizia   EÉLV-PS-PRG-PCF-GRS-G.s-GÉ 16,9% decided to withdraw and support Renaud Muselier (LR) in the second round so the second round so it would be a toss up.

Projection: Toss up between extreme right and right, Extreme right might gain


Pays de la Loire
Into the Second round: Left 35,0% (18,7%+16,3% merger between PS and EELV), Right 34,3%, Extreme right 12,5%, LREM 12,0%
Nota bene.  It seems like LREM will not withdraw and support LR in the second round.

Projection: Toss up between Right and Left, Left might gain


Bretagne
Into the Second round: Left 27,5% (21,0%+Daniel Cueff, Ecologist,  6,3%), Right 16,3%, LREM 15,5%, EELV 14,8%, Extreme right 14,3%
Nota bene. No merger between PS a EELV or LFI 5,6%.

Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold


Normandie
Into the Second round: Right 36,9%, Extreme Right 19,9%, Left 18,4%, LREM 11,1%

Nota bene. No merger between PS and the EELV 9,6%
Projection: Safe LC (Right) - Right Hold


Bourgogne-Franche-Comté
Into the Second round: Left 36,8%% (26,5%+10,3%, merger between PS and EELV), Extreme Right 23,2%, Right 21,0%, LREM 11,7%
Nota bene. No merger between PS and LFI 4,5%
Nota bene.  It seems like LREM will not withdraw and support LR in the second round.

Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold


Centre-Val de Loire
Into the Second round: Left 35,7% (24,8%+10,9% merger between PS and EELV), Extreme Right 22,2%, Right 18,8%, LREM 16,7%
No merger between PS and LFI 4,1%
Nota bene.  It seems like LREM will not withdraw and support LR in the second round.

Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold


Corse
First round: FC (Regionalist, nationalist) 29,2%, Right 24,9%, PNC (regionalist, left, autonomist) 13,2%, R (regionalist, left, autonomist) 8,4%, Left 7,0% (3,8%+3,2%). CL (regionalist, extreme left, nationalist) 6,9%, TDP-LREM 5,9%, Extreme Right 4,6% (4,0%+0,6%)

Into the Second round (8%-threshold): FC (Regionalist, nationalist) 29,2%, Right 24,9%, PNC (regionalist, left, autonomist) 13,2% and R (regionalist, left, autonomist) 8,4%,

Nota bene. Talks about merging lists are ongoing.


Projection: Safe FC (Regionalist)– Regionalist Hold


Summary:
Safe or leans right: 4
Safe left: 5
Safe: Regionalist 1
Toss up: 3 (Île-de-France and Pays de la Loire between right and left and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur between Right and Extreme Right)

[CumbrianLefty]

Still waiting for the likes of "Professor" Badwin to comment on these - I wonder why?

[Zinneke]

Still waiting for the likes of "Professor" Badwin to comment on these - I wonder why?

Similarly I think some of the PoSci community have a "fixette" I would say (to use a French term) on the likes of Goodwin simply because...he's more successful than them? In the end the French Presidential election will still have higher turnout and will be dominated by the global France vs alter-global France cleavage as a debate, and that thanks to Macron. These regional elections just show that most French potential voters have no interest in local politics because there is no local demos...all the RN talking points were virtually irrelevant to the actual powers the regions had. Contrast that to Germany and its (obviously deep rooted) regional particularities and taking Landwahlen almost as seriously as The Big One. The fact that these Landwahlen are held at different times rather than as one nationwide "midterm" only political hacks care about also helps.

I actually think if there is one arena where "ReAliGnMenT" might be salient it is France simply because the media have bombarded the populace with this narrative at a national level for a long while and Macron exploited this. And that the moment Macron won is the moment the old vote banks and cleavages of some village vs another ceased to be relevant for the Presidential election, even if they are relevant for the Regionals here. Its going to be all about a referendum on Macron, and his values. The mediating variable? Le Pen and her family name baggage. Literally anyone with her views and a different family name could attract swathes of the LFI Left for example.

[Hash]

I'll make some quick graphs on the basis of Ifop and Ipsos exit poll (not actually an exit poll, but everyone thinks it is) data, beginning with the biggest loser: turnout



The last category on the far right refers to vote in the 2019 EP elections.

The strongest correlation by far, perhaps even the only real one, is age. Old people voted, young people didn't. Old people are also more likely to vote for the traditional right (and LREM in 2019), so that explains why Fillon 2017/LR 2019 voters had the highest turnout. On the other hand, Panzergirl 2017 and Mélenchon 2017 mobilized a lot of low-propensity voters, including probably a lot of the (increasingly common) types who only vote in presidential elections and ignore the rest. There's also an interesting gender gap, either 6 points or 13 (!), which is interesting and I'm unsure what's behind it.

Ifop's data is also broken down by composition, so we can have an idea of the composition of yesterday's electorate:
53% male
40% over 65
42% retired
49% economically active incl. 14% CSP+, 23% CSP-
37% well off or upper middle-class (per capita monthly income over 1900 euros)
10% poor (per capita monthly income below 900 euros)
16% without declared partisan/political identification

And of non-voters
54% female
21% over 65
59% economically active incl. 15% CSP+, 28% CSP-
32% well off or upper middle-class
17% poor
38% without declared partisan/political identification

And here's what the 2017 election may have looked like if only yesterday's voters had turned up:
Fillon 25%
Macron 21%
Le Pen 20%
Mélenchon 11%
Hamon 6%

[Sir John Johns]

Results in Brittany:

Loïg Chesnais-Girard (Socialist Party/French Communist Party/Left Radical Party) 20.9%
Isabelle Le Callennec (The Republicans) 16.3%
Thierry Burlot (La République en Marche/Democratic Movement/Union of Democrats and Independents) 15.5%
Claire Desmares-Poirrier (Europe Ecology – The Greens/Breton Democratic Union) 14.8%
Gilles Pennelle (National Rally) 14.3%
Daniel Cueff (Miscellaneous Ecologists) 6.5%
Pierre-Yves Cadalen (La France Insoumise) 5.6%
Valérie Hamon (Workers’ Struggle) 2.3%
Joannic Martin (Breton Party) 1.5%
David Cabas (Debout la France) 1.4%
others 0.8%

Turnout: 35.8%



I’m far less knowledgeable than Hashemite about French (and even Breton) electoral patterns but, besides some well-known historical persistence like Léon in northern Finistère voting for the Gaullist party (even if not at the extent it used to be) or Morbihan being the département the more favorable to FN/RN, there seems to be here a strong ‘favorite son’ factor:

Chesnais-Girard’s best commune in the whole region was Liffré (61.2%; 5 out of his ten best communes are located in Liffré canton), the commune he was previously the mayor of; his best commune in Côtes-d’Armor was Saint-Pôtan (53.6%) whose mayor has received the #2 spot on the département’s list while he also received strong results in Paimpol area whose mayor has received the #1 spot; in Finistère, his best commune was Quimperlé (37.8%) whose mayor has received the #1 spot on the département list while his second best commune was Carhaix-Plouguer (37.3%) whose quite famous (at regional level at least) mayor Christian Troadec has received the #5 spot on the list after having led a ‘regionalist/localist’ left-leaning list six years ago; this is less obvious in Morbihan but the #1 spot on the list was the mayor of Saint-Avé, a commune in which Chesnais-Girard has received 35.3% of the vote (his 12th best commune in the département). Conversely, in Taupon, the commune where the #2 candidate, deputy Paul Molac (ex-UDB, ex-LREM), ran for mayor in 2008, Chesnais-Girard received 22.0%, slightly above his regional average. While speaking of veteran politicians being recycled on Chesnais-Girard’s ‘liste de rassemblement’ (‘rallying list’), one can mention Fortuné Pellicano, a former member of the RPR and UMP who has spent the two last decades ruining any hope of victory for the right in Brest by running dissident candidacies, was #9 candidate on the département list in Finistère (he is now a member of the PRG).

Le Callenec won in a landslide in the area of Vitré, the commune she is a mayor of (40.9% in the commune itself). This is a historical stronghold of the moderate/democratic christian/pro-European right, so not that much a surprise but the Macronist candidate received pretty bad results in a place that theoretically should be more favorable to him (12.5% in Vitré while Macron received there 34.2% of the vote in 2017 first round). The presence of political heavyweight and former deputy Marc Le Fur as #1 candidate in Côtes-d’Armor also certainly helped Le Callenec to receive strong results in the southeastern part of the département even if sharply in decline compared to 2015. Le Callenec’s third best commune in Finistère was Gouesnou (35.3%), a suburb of Brest whose mayor was top candidate on the département list.

Burlot received some of his results in the area of Pléguien (Côtes-d’Armor), the commune he was the mayor of from 1989 to 1999 (34.9% in Pléguien itself).

And of course, Cueff received his best result in the commune he used to be a mayor of, Langouët (46.6%) and became famous by reducing the legal use of pesticide spray which led to a legal challenge he ultimately lost.

Chesnais-Girard won most major cities with results slightly above his regional average, notably Quimper (25.6%), Morlaix (23.6%), Lorient (23.0%), Concarneau (21.8%) and Saint-Brieuc (21.4%); he also placed ahead in Brest with 21.1% (being hurt by the strong showing – 10.3% – of the LFI candidate). In Rennes, he placed second with 20.7% of the vote, behind the Green candidate. He also came ahead in Île-de-Sein with 20.3%, an island in Finistère strongly associated with the Gaullist legacy (since the 18 June 1940 appeal) the RPR/UMP used to win with large margins (this year, Callenec placed fifth behind Chesnais-Girard, Desmares-Poirrier, Pennelle and Cueff with 11.3%).

Callenec clearly didn’t perform very well in urban centers, coming ahead in a handful of major cities, all traditional right-wing strongholds like Saint-Malo (23.1%), Pontivy (22.8%), Dinard (21.2%), Vannes (19.3%), while receiving pretty bad results in Saint-Brieuc (12.7%), Brest (12.2%), Quimper (11.9%), Lorient (11.5%), Rennes (11.3%) and Lannion (9.9%).

Besides of the area of Plouha, Burlot overperformed in touristic coastal areas and yachting harbors, receiving 72.6% (his best result) in Hœdic Island, 35.2% in Île-de-Batz, 34.1% in Île-aux-Moines, 26.2% in Île-d’Houat, 25.9% in Île-d’Arz (all touristic islands with a lot of secondary residences), 24.2% in Binic-Étables-sur-Mer, 23.2% in Arzon (Breton commun with the highest rate of secondary residences), 21.3% in Le Conquet, 19.9% in Sarzeau. He also placed first in Dinan with 26.5% of the vote, apparently the strongest result for the LREM candidate in a middle-size city. His result in major cities were barely better than the ones of Callenec, placing third behind the PS and the EELV candidates in Rennes (13.5%), Brest (12.4%), Quimper (15.2%), Lorient (13.5%), Saint-Brieuc (15.8%), Concarneau (15.8%) and Lannion (14.9%). He placed second in Vannes with 18.9% and third behind the LR and the PS candidates in Saint-Malo with 15.6%. In Hennebont and Lanester, two rather industrial and relatively poor cities in Morbihan, Burlot placed fourth with respectively 13.6% and 12.3% of the votes, behind the PS, the EELV and the RN candidates but ahead of the LR candidate.

The EELV best commune isn’t, for once Trémargat (Côtes-d’Armor, ‘only’ 34.8% as the LFI candidate received 23.2% of the votes – his best commune – and Cueff 10.1%; the LR and the RN candidates both received 1.4% of the votes), but Mellionec (also in Côtes-d’Armor) with 35.8% of the vote. Desmares-Poirrier came notably ahead in Rennes (26.1%), Douarnenez (21.8%), Redon (21.7%; Alain Madelin must be turning in his gr… oh, wait a minute, apparently he is still alive) and Auray (19.5%) while placing second in Brest (17.7%), Quimper (17.2%), Lorient (18.0%), Saint-Brieuc (18.4%), Concarneau (16.1%), Lannion (20.8%), Morlaix (21.8%), Le Relecq-Kerhuon (17.7%) and Dinan (14.8% behind the LREM candidate but above the PS and the LR ones).

The RN candidate received his best results mostly in rural areas and small cities. Among most-populated communes, his best performances were in Lanester (17.7%), Hennebont (17.4%), Lorient (15.2%) Fougères (17.2%) and Pontivy (15.1%), so rather historically industrial and popular cities, but also in the seaside resort towns of Guidel (17.4%), Dinard (17.2%), Larmor-Plage (15.4%) and Sarzeau (14.5%). He received only 7.9% of the vote in Rennes. In the important fishing port of Guilvinec, he placed second behind the PS candidate with 19.5% of the vote.

Cueff didn’t broke the 10% bar in any major city but came first in Ouessant Island with 26.9%.

[CumbrianLefty]

Still waiting for the likes of "Professor" Badwin to comment on these - I wonder why?

Similarly I think some of the PoSci community have a "fixette" I would say (to use a French term) on the likes of Goodwin simply because...he's more successful than them?

But why is he more "successful"? Because he has a grift that certain powerful and influential people want to hear?? Though this is of course getting off topic so let's leave it there

[Hash]

Time for a proper analysis of the results, not some lazy stuff, and a preview of the runoffs based on alliances concluded or not.

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Laurent Wauquiez (LR-UDI-Libres-LC-LMR)* 43.85%
Fabienne Grébert (EELV-Gs-GE-PP-ND-MdP) 14.47%
Andréa Kotarac (RN-PL) 12.32%
Najat Vallaud-Belkacem (PS-PRG-GRS-CÉ) 11.42%
Bruno Bonnell (LREM-MoDem-Agir-MR-TdP) 9.82%
Cécile Cukierman (PCF-LFI-E!) 5.57%
Chantal Gomez (LO) 1.56%
Shella Gil (Oth.) 0.65%
Farid Omeir (UDMF) 0.33%
Abstention 67.41%

Wauquiez absolutely dominated and is on track to sail to a very comfortable reelection in the second round, even if the three left-wing lists have merged behind Grébert (EELV). Their combined result, just 31%, still places them over 10 points behind Wauquiez. Bonnell fell flat on his face, placing below the 10% threshold, while the RN's result is very bad, down from 25.5% in 2015. Even though turnout is down a ton from 2015.

Wauquiez won every single department. He absolutely dominated with ridiculous margins in Auvergne, particularly his native stronghold of Haute-Loire, where he won no less than 67.7% (he won 66.1% in Cantal and nearly 55% in Allier). His weakest result was Isère, where he won a bit less than 35% as Grébert won in the green stronghold of Grenoble.

Bourgogne-Franche-Comté
Marie-Guite Dufay (PS-PCF-PRG)* 26.52%
Julien Odoul (RN) 23.19%
Gilles Platret (LR-UDI-DLF-Libres-LC-LMR-MEI) 21.04%
Denis Thuriot (LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP) 11.69%
Stéphanie Modde (EELV-GE-CÉ) 10.34%
Bastien Faudot (GRS-LFI-ND-PP-E!-Gs) 4.5%
Claire Rocher (LO) 2.73%
Abstention 65.13%

With an incumbent boost, PS regional president Marie-Guite Dufay - president of Franche-Comté since 2018 and surprise winner of a three-way race in 2015 - is favoured to win reelection, and probably more comfortably than in 2015. Her list has merged uneventfully with the EELV list, which won just over 10%, which combines to over 36% - far ahead of the three other lists qualified. Julien Odoul, the RN's young moron who enjoys making distasteful 'jokes' about farmers' suicide, is down over 8% from the far-right's result in 2015, although he is still in second position ahead of LR.

Dufay is ahead in all the departments of the old Franche-Comté plus the Côte-d'Or (Dijon). Odoul won the Yonne with 30.2%, Gilles Platret, the very right-wing mayor of Chalon-sur-Saône, won his department with 28.7% while Denis Thuriot, the ex-PS LREM mayor of Nevers (Nièvre) won his department with 25.4% - taking over 37% in Nevers.

Bretagne
Loïg Chesnais-Girard (PS-PCF-PRG-MR-CÉ-PLB!)* 20.95%
Isabelle Le Callennec (LR-LC-Libres-LMR) 16.27%
Thierry Burlot (LREM-MoDem-Agir-UDI-TdP-Volt) 15.53%
Claire Desmares-Poirrier (EELV-UDB-GE-ND-Gs-BÉ-LRDG) 14.84%
Gilles Pennelle (RN) 14.27%
Daniel Cueff (Ecolo) 6.52%
Pierre-Yves Cadalen (LFI) 5.57%
Valérie Hamon (LO) 2.26%
Joannic Martin (PB) 1.55%
David Cabas (DLF) 1.4%
Christophe Daviet (Oth.) 0.49%
Yves Chauvel (EXD) 0.22%
Kamel Elahiar (UDMF) 0.12%
Abstention 64.21%

So Brittany may be one of the more interesting regions to follow in the runoff (after very uneventful elections in 2010 and 2015) as incumbent PS president Loïg Chesnais-Girard - who took over from Jean-Yves Le Drian in 2017 - is the exception to the rule of incumbents overperforming. He won a very weak 21%, an anemic result which likely has much to do with his low name recognition/personal notoriety, particularly in comparison to a dominant figure like Le Drian, his former mentor. It also has to do with some stiff competition from a former ally - and another former Le Drian disciple - Thierry Burlot, who was regional vice president responsible for the environment until just some months ago (until he was fired by Chesnais-Girard upon confirming his macronista list) and won 15.5%, LREM's second-best result in metropolitan France.

Chesnais-Girard announced an alliance (merger) with the independent list led by Daniel Cueff, former mayor of Langouet (Ille-et-Vilaine) famous for his anti-pesticides decrees, which won 6.5%. Cueff had previously been a regional councillor between 2010 and 2015 in Le Drian's majority, part of a small party called Bretagne Écologie founded by Green/EELV dissidents who wanted to ally with Le Drian/PS from the first round in 2010. However, given that Cueff campaigned as an independent opposed to deals with the political establishment, his deal with the PS is decried as a betrayal by some of his allies like Anne Quéméré (a famous sailor) and Olivier Roellinger (Cancale chef). On the other hand, alliances with Burlot - as Le Drian had pleaded for before the elections - and Desmares-Poirrier were rejected (relations between the PS and EELV at the regional level have been bad since 2010), so both of them will maintain their lists in the second, creating a messy five-way runoff -- opening the possibility for a regional council with no one holding an absolute majority, even with the majority bonus, if the winner gets less than 33%. Chesnais-Girard should be the narrow favourite, but the outcome is still quite unpredictable and could be messy.

Chesnais-Girard won all four departments of the region. Burlot did best in the Côtes-d'Armor (17.7%), particularly strong around his political base of Pléguien. Isabelle Le Callenec, LR mayor of Vitré (Ille-et-Vilaine) won nearly 41% in Vitré and won much of eastern Ille-et-Vilaine, historically one of the most conservative regions of western France. Desmares-Poirrier placed first in Rennes.

Centre-Val de Loire
François Bonneau (PS-PCF-PRG-MR)* 24.81%
Aleksandar Nikolic (RN-CNIP) 22.24%
Nicolas Forissier   (LR-UDI-LMR) 18.82%
Marc Fesneau (MoDem-LREM-Agir-LC-TdP) 16.65%
Charles Fournier (EELV-LFI-Gs-E!-ND-GE-LRDG) 10.85%
Jérémy Clément (Ecolo) 4.07%
Farida Megdoud   (LO) 2.56%
Abstention 67.26%

Although Bonneau's result is weak as incumbent, with the alliance (merger) with the EELV-LFI list, he's the (narrow) favourite to win reelection in the four-way runoff, particularly as speculation around a possible LR/LREM merger to defeat the left ended nowhere, as LR wanted the macronista list to withdraw rather than merge with them. The region was also macronismo's best region in the country, owing a lot to Fesneau's political base in the Loir-et-Cher (he was mayor of the small town of Marenchoir) as well as Philippe Vigier (ex-UDI deputy for Eure-et-Loir since 2007, and the right's candidate in the region in 2015) leading the list in Eure-et-Loir, where he has a strong personal vote in his constituency. As for the RN, with their numbers down over 8% from 2015, and at just 22%, their hopes of squeaking through in a four-way runoff are dead.

Once again the results show a strong personal vote effect here too: Bonneau won the Loiret, Cher and Indre-et-Loire (in good part thanks to Orléans, Bourges and Tours), while Forissier - LR deputy for the Indre and former mayor of La Châtre - won the Indre. Fesneau won the Loir-et-Cher, while Nikolic won the Eure-et-Loir.

Corsica
Gilles Simeoni (FaC)* 29.19%
Laurent Marcangeli (LR-UDI-CCB) 24.86%
Jean-Christophe Angelini (PNC) 13.22%
Paul-Félix Benedetti (Rinnovu) 8.39%
Jean-Guy Talamoni (CL) 6.9%
Jean-Charles Orsucci (LREM-TdP) 5.92%
François Filoni (RN) 4%
Agnès Simonpietri (EELV-GE-Gs-ND) 3.75%
Michel Stefani (PCF) 3.18%
Jean-Antoine Giacomi   (EXD) 0.59%
Abstention 42.92%

Despite the divisions of the nationalist majority, the nationalist vote remains dominant and Simeoni - again despite the loss of his two prominent allies, Angelini and Talamoni - placed first, beating the right-wing (Bonapartist, yes, that's correct!) mayor of Ajaccio, Laurent Marcangeli. Together, the nationalist vote amounts to 57.7%, even more than in 2017, which was already an historic victory for them. The right, united for the first time in a long time, remains just as weak as in 2015 and 2017. The non-nationalist left, for the second time in a row, will remain excluded from the island's assembly, with their two lists winning less than 4% of the vote each. Meanwhile, Corsican macronismo will be eliminated from the assembly. The other big thing is that Benedetti's radical left-wing separatist Rinnovu/Core in Fronte, with 8.4%, not only qualifies for the runoff (the insular threshold is 7%, not 10%) but also finishes ahead of Talamoni's Corsica Libera, which ended below the 7% threshold.

... and yes, you read that right, Corsica had over 57% turnout. They really do their own thing there: but it isn't surprising - the Corsican Assembly is a more important and relevant institution to the island's political life than the regional councils are in any other region, and Corsican politics is still very much parochial (literally insular) and interest is higher in local/regional matters than national politics.

Angelini and Talamoni have merged their lists, although Talamoni himself won't appear on it, which sets up a four-way runoff in which Simeoni likely remains the narrow favourite. The Corsican majority bonus is only 11 out of 63 seats, less than the 25% bonus elsewhere, meaning that here as well there's a possibility of an assembly without any absolute majority, even though the nationalists - divided in three (with one separatist faction unlikely to ally with the other two) - will retain an absolute majority.

Simeoni won nearly 35% in Haute-Corse (over 40% in Bastia, his stronghold) while Marcangeli won 29.9% in Corse-du-Sud (nearly 40% in Ajaccio) against 22.9% for Simeoni. Local results still reveal the overwhelming importance and influence of local political clans and the 'mayors effect' (mayors or their group appearing on the list of candidates).

Grand Est
Jean Rottner (LR-UDI-LC-MR-LMR)* 31.15%
Laurent Jacobelli (RN-CNIP) 21.12%
Éliane Romani (EELV-PS-PCF-CÉ-GE-MdP-ND) 14.6%
Brigitte Klinkert (LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP) 10.77%
Aurélie Filippetti   (Gs-LFI-PRG-PP) 8.64%
Florian Philippot   (LP) 6.95%
Martin Meyer (Unser Land) 3.67%
Louise Fève (LO) 2.6%
Adil Tyane (UDMF) 0.49%
Abstention 70.39%

Courtesy of record-high abstention and the far-right taking a hit, Rottner ultimately shouldn't have too much trouble winning reelection. The RN is down 15% from 2015, when it was led by Florian Philippot (who famously left the FN a few years ago). As for Philippot, after the brutal defeat in the EP elections in 2019, his result - nearly 7% on an anti-lockdown/anti-mask/soft anti-vaxx rhetoric, is quite impressive and clearly ate into the RN's electorate, seeing as how Philippot's vote is not really regionally-concentrated (as a RN apparatchik, he famously tried - and failed, hard - to carve himself a personal stronghold in Forbach). On the left, a EELV-PS list clearly beat out a LFI-Gs list led by former PS deputy/former culture minister Aurélie Filippetti. Junior minister Brigitte Klinkert - former right-wing president of the Haut-Rhin departmental council - narrowly qualified for the runoff, with 10.8%. The Alsatian regionalist party Unser Land which, like in 2015, campaigned against the 'Grand Est' megaregion and for Alsace to be a separate region with a special status, won 3.7% regionally and 9.4% in Alsace, slightly less than in 2015.

The runoff will be between the top four lists. Rottner quickly killed speculation of an alliance with LREM and Klinkert has maintained her list after briefly hesitating. Negotiations between Romani and Filippetti failed, so Filippetti's list will not merge with the qualified left-wing list - relations between the two were perhaps soured by Romani having refused to choose hypothetically between Panzergirl and Mélenchon.

Rottner won every department, even traditional far-right hotbeds in Champagne-Ardenne like Haute-Marne. Klinkert did very well in and around her base of Colmar (Haut-Rhin) - in the Haut-Rhin she won around 24.5%, narrowly behind Rottner, and the map shows an interesting north/south divide in the department between the Colmar region and Mulhouse region (Rottner's base). In the concurrent departmental elections, Klinkert's ticket with Colmar mayor Éric Straumann (LR) in Colmar-2 won over 60% but failed to win in the first round because of low turnout.

Guadeloupe
Ary Chalus (GUSR/LREM)* 49.31%
Josette Borel-Lincertin (FGPS) 17.38%
Ronald Selbonne (ANG-UPLG) 9.39%
Max Mathiasin (PPDG/DVG) 5.56%
Sonia Petro (LR-UDI) 3.68%
Maxette Pirbakas (RN) 3.42%
Éric Coriolan (Oth.) 2.88%
Jean-Marie Nomertin (CO/LO) 2.67%
Alain Plaisir (Reg.) 2.54%
Christelle Nanor   (LGCA) 1.41%
Willy William (Oth.) 1.17%
Tony Delannay (DLF) 0.58%
Abstention 69.15%

Incumbent president Ary Chalus - from the local party GUSR, close to LREM and allied with the old local right - came extremely close to winning in the first round, despite being recently indicted for breach of trust, embezzlement and illegal financing of his 2015 campaign. He was held in custody on May 11. His closest rival is the PS president of the departmental council, Josette Borel-Lincertin, also recently indicted in a corruption scandal. The surprise came from the strong performance of regionalist candidate Ronald Selbonne with just under 10%. Deputy Max Mathiasin (caucuses with the MoDem), also recently indicted in a corruption scandal, won 5.56%.

Guyane
Rodolphe Alexandre (GR/centrist)* 43.72%
Gabriel Serville (Péyi G-LFI-Gs) 27.67%
Jean-Paul Fereira (AGEG-PSG-GE-MDES-Walwari) 23.34%
Jessi Americain (DVG) 5.27%
Abstention 65.21%

Incumbent centrist president Rodolphe Alexandre, close to LREM, first elected in 2010, dominated the first round with 43.7% but will face an alliance of the three other (left-wing) lists in the second round. Deputy Gabriel Serville (caucuses with the GDR group) won 27.7%, and Jean-Paul Fereira, backed notably by Christiane Taubira, won 23.3%. Theoretically, the alliance of the three left-wing lists should be enough to win, but I know little.

[Hash]

Hauts-de-France
Xavier Bertrand (DVD/LR-UDI-LC-LMR-MR)* 41.39%
Sébastien Chenu (RN) 24.37%
Karima Delli (EELV-LFI-PS-PCF-Gs-PP-PRG-LRDG-GE) 18.99%
Laurent Pietraszewski   (LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP) 9.14%
Éric Pecqueur (LO) 3.56%
José Évrard (DLF) 2.04%
Audric Alexandre (PACE-NC-Volt) 0.51%
Abstention 67.16%

In the end, Xavier Bertrand will have no trouble winning reelection and, in the process, deal nasty blows to both Panzergirl and Macron. The first round was expected to be closely fought between him and the far-right, but with low turnout hurting the far-right and favouring entrenched incumbents, he ended up 17 points ahead of RN deputy Sébastien Chenu (Nord-19th). Whereas in 2015, Panzergirl herself had won 40.6% in the first round, the RN's vote fell by over 16% to just 24.4%. Of course Panzergirl was a much stronger candidate and Chenu a much weaker candidate (internally disliked, and accused days ago in Libé of charging up to €20,000 for candidates to be guaranteed a spot on his list), but it is still an extremely bad result for the far-right in one of their two most famous strongholds (the other being PACA). The RN likely suffered from the major drop in turnout, which was even steeper in the region than elsewhere: in the Pas-de-Calais, turnout fell from 57% in 2015 to just 37%.

The left was, for once, smart enough to unite, but that wasn't anywhere near enough to win even a decent result: Karima Delli's result is nearly 10% lower than the left's combined result in 2015, split over 3 lists (PS, PCF and EELV-PG) at the time -- all this in a region with a long and famous left-wing history. Her result also severely undeperformed the left's performance in the concurrent departmental elections in a department like the Pas-de-Calais: 45.9% against only 16.7% for her. She undoubtedly suffered from the race being perceived as being a match between Bertrand and the RN, but some will contend - perhaps with reason - that it also owes a bit to her being a poor fit for the region (an 'urban green' - albeit from Roubaix, not really a hipster bobo haven).

As for macronismo, whatever Macron's genius strategy was here to weaken or compromise his future 2022 rival, it failed badly - the macronista list was eliminated outright, winning less than 10%, forcing it to immediately announce its support for Bertrand to defeat the far-right. In some towns in the Pas-de-Calais mining basin, LO was even ahead of LREM! Macron himself votes in this region (in the seaside resort town of Le Touquet, Pas-de-Calais), so he may end up voting for Bertrand himself on Sunday!

Bertrand won every department in the region, his strongest being 48.8% in the Aisne, where he is from (in Saint-Quentin, his stronghold, he got nearly 60%), his weakest being 38.9% in the Nord. Chenu significantly underperformed everywhere, winning just 26.4% in the Pas-de-Calais and 25.9% in the Aisne, which were the only two departments Panzergirl won in the runoff in 2017. Delli's best department was the Nord with 22.5%, and her only significant base anywhere was Lille, Roubaix and Villeneuve-d'Ascq.

Île-de-France
Valérie Pécresse (Libres-LR-UDI-MR)* 35.94%
Jordan Bardella (RN) 13.12%
Julien Bayou (EELV-Gs-GE-CE-MdP-ND) 12.95%
Audrey Pulvar (PS-PRG-PP-GRS) 11.07%
Clémentine Autain (E!-LFI-PCF) 10.24%
Laurent Saint-Martin (LREM-Agir-MoDem-TdP) 11.76%
Victor Pailhac (REV-MHAN) 1.86%
Nathalie Arthaud (LO) 1.55%
Éric Berlingen (UDMF) 0.66%
Lionel Brot (Oth.) 0.6%
Fabiola Conti (Volt) 0.26%
Abstention 69.15%

Incumbent president Valérie Pécresse remains well on track to win reelection, although it may be slightly closer than expected. The left, split between three lists, won 34.3%, which is down from 39.9% in the first round in 2015, also split between three lists. In the second round, the left went on to win 42.2% against 43.8% for Pécresse. Julien Bayou won the race on the left, in a blow to Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo who had been supporting former journalist Audrey Pulvar (a Paris city councillor since 2020), and will lead a united left-wing list from the merger of the three lists. The result is a major disappointment for macronismo, in a region where it usually quite strong, especially given that it had sent a number of heavyweights (although 'media-darling heavyweights' with little political base or following of their own...) to the fight. The result is also pretty poor for the RN (which was likely expecting more from Panzergirl's latest phony young 'star', Jordan Bardella), although actually a bit up from Panzergirl's 12.6% in the region in 2017 (but down from 18.4% in 2015).

As mentioned, the three left-wing lists have merged and their combined total of 34% takes them quite close to Pécresse's 35.9%, meaning that the outcome could be closer than might have been expected before the first round, although I would personally still bet on Pécresse's reelection by a narrow margin. The RN and LREM will likely see their vote squeezed in what will be primarily a right/left matchup.

Pécresse, given her lead, obviously topped the poll in every department. Her strongest result was the Yvelines (43.3%) followed by the Hauts-de-Seine (42.5%), her weakest was the leftist Seine-Saint-Denis (27.6%), which also saw some of the lowest turnout anywhere in the country (24.2%), even lower in some low-income banlieues like Clichy-sous-Bois (12%). In Paris, Pécresse won 32.9% against 18% for Bayou, 14.1% for Saint-Martin and only 12.9% for Pulvar. Bayou was the top left-wing candidate in Paris, Hauts-de-Seine, Yvelines and Essonne. Autain was the top left-wing candidate in Seine-Saint-Denis (19.9%) and Val-de-Marne (13.1%), Pulvar led the left only in Seine-et-Marne (with less than 10%) and Val-d'Oise (11.2%).

La Réunion
Didier Robert (OR/DVD-LR-MR)* 31.1%
Huguette Bello (PLR-LFI) 20.74%
Ericka Bareigts (PS-PCR-Gs) 18.48%
Vanessa Miranville (CREA/DVG) 9.91%
Patrick Lebreton (DVG) 7.78%
Olivier Hoarau (DVG) 4.24%
Philippe Cadet (DVD) 2.64%
Jean-Pierre Marchau (EELV) 2%
Joseph Rivière (RN) 1.74%
Jean-Yves Payet   (LO) 1.14%
Corinne de Flore (DVD) 0.23%
Abstention 63.56%

Incumbent president Didier Robert (DVD), recently convicted in May to three years political ineligiblity and a suspended 15 months prison sentence for conflict of interests and abuse of public assets, faces a challenging reelection for a third term in the second round despite coming out over 10 points ahead of the divided left. On the left, the winner is Huguette Bello, former deputy (1997-2020) and mayor of Saint-Paul (2008-2014, since 2020), who won 20.7%. On the other hand, a notable loser is Ericka Bareigts, PS mayor of Saint-Denis since 2020 (having defeated Didier Robert) and former overseas minister (2016-2017), who won 18.5% and was narrowly beaten (by just a few votes) by Robert in Saint-Denis. Patrick Lebreton, DVG (ex-PS) mayor of Saint-Joseph, won 7.8%. Vanessa Miranville, DVG (ex-EELV) mayor of La Possession since 2014, won 9.9%, falling just short of the 10% threshold. Olivier Hoarau, DVG (ex-PLR) mayor of Le Port and Bello's former suppléant, won 4.2%.

Bello, Bareigts and Lebreton have merged their list, which has also received the endorsement of Hoarau, although Miranville refused to merge her list with the rest of the left. The (almost) united left adds up to over 47%, theoretically far ahead of the incumbent, but again overseas political dynamics and intrigues can be difficult to understand. In 2015, for example, Bello led a left/MoDem alliance in the runoff which theoretically ahead over 51% of the vote from the first round, but lost to Robert in the runoff 52.7% to 47.3%.

Martinique
Serge Letchimy (PPM-BPM-MPF/DVG) 31.66%
Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM-Palima)* 25.8%
Jean-Philippe Nilor (Péyi A-RDM-LFI) 12.01%
Catherine Conconne (DVG) 10.63%
Yan Monplaisir (LR) 4.68%
Philippe Jock (DVC) 3.92%
Béatrice Bellay (PS) 3.56%
Olivier Bérisson (DVG) 2.23%
Max Orville (MoDem) 1.44%
Ralph Monplaisir (LREM) 1.09%
Guy Ferdinand (Oth.) 1.06%
Marcel Sellaye (GRS) 0.69%
Philippe Petit (UDI) 0.64%
Gabriel Jean-Marie (CO/LO) 0.59%
Abstention 67.55%

The election remained dominated by two traditional figures of Martinican politics: Serge Letchimy, leader of Aimé Césaire's party, the PPM, deputy (since 2007), former regional president (2010-2015) and former mayor of Fort-de-France; and incumbent president Alfred Marie-Jeanne of the nationalist MIM, regional president (1998-2010, since 2015) and former deputy (1997-2017). Letchimy defeated Marie-Jeanne in 2010, but was in turn defeated by Marie-Jeanne - allied with the right - in 2015. The incumbent was indicted in a corruption scandal in 2019.

Marie-Jeanne trailed his predecessor in the first round, weakened by notable divisions within his majority. Jean-Philippe Nilor, ex-MIM deputy supported by the RDM of retiring regional assembly president Claude Lise, won 12%. Senator Catherine Conconne, a PPM dissident, won 10.6%. All qualified lists have maintained their lists for the runoff, so there will be a four-way runoff.

Normandie
Hervé Morin (LC-LR-LMR-Libres)* 36.86%
Nicolas Bay (RN) 19.86%
Mélanie Boulanger (PS-EELV-Gs-GE-CE-PP-ND) 18.37%
Laurent Bonnaterre (LREM-TdP-MoDem-Agir) 11.07%
Sébastien Jumel (PCF-LFI-PRG) 9.64%
Pascal Le Manach (LO) 3.14%
Stéphanie Kerbarh (LREM diss.) 1.06%
Abstention 67.01%

Incumbent regional president Hervé Morin is on track to win reelection quite comfortably. He won 36.9%, a result equivalent to his 2015 runoff result. On the other hand, the results are bad for both the left and the far-right. The left, divided between a PS-EELV list and a PCF-LFI list (led by Sébastien Jumel, PCF deputy for Seine-Maritime-6th and former mayor of Dieppe), won only 28%, compared to 36.7% in 2015. The far-right, led like in 2015 by MEP Nicolas Bay, fell from 27.7% to 19.9%. The results are also mediocre for macronismo, although it sent relatively few heavyweights to the field here, with 11.1%.

For the runoff, the PS-EELV list failed to reach a merger deal with Jumel's eliminated list. The runoff will be between the top four lists, with a clear advantage to Morin.

Hervé Morin won all departments, winning over 40% of the votes in the former departments of Basse-Normandie and 37.9% in his native Eure. His weakest department was Seine-Maritime, where he won only 29.2%. Boulanger won Rouen, while Jumel did well in and around Dieppe, in his constituency, as well in Rouen and Le Havre's historically Communist industrial hinterland.

Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Alain Rousset (PS-PRG-PCF-PP)* 28.84%
Edwige Diaz (RN) 18.2%
Geneviève Darrieussecq (MoDem-LREM-Agir-TdP-UDI-MR) 13.71%
Nicolas Florian (LR-LC) 12.48%
Nicolas Thierry (EELV-Gs-GE-CE) 12.09%
Eddie Puyjalon (LMR-Résistons !) 7.29%
Clémence Guetté (LFI-NPA) 5.67%
Guillaume Perchet (LO) 1.74%
Abstention 64.09%

Alain Rousset, who has been president of Aquitaine since 1998 (and the new megaregion since 2015), should be reelected but the failure to reach a merger deal with EELV (with whom Rousset has had longstanding conflicts over high-speed rail and highways, although they did merge in both 2010 and 2015) had forced a five-way runoff which, like in Brittany, could potentially result in a scenario where no-one has an absolute majority in the regional council (provided that the winner gets less than 33% in the runoff). Overall, the left's result is solid (nearly 41%, more than in 2015).

The results are bad especially for the right - led by the former LR mayor of Bordeaux (Juppé's hand-picked successor in 2019, defeated by the Greens in 2020) - which won just 12.5%. The results are mediocre for the far-right, although it is down 'only' 5% from 2015 and remains strong in the traditional far-right areas; and not particularly great for macronismo either, although it is comfortably over the 10% threshold and ahead of LR. On the other hand, there is a real surprise performance from Eddie Puyjalon, incumbent regional councillor and leader of the Rurality Movement (LMR, successor of the hunters' party CPNT), supported by everyone's favourite meme candidate, Jean Lassalle. Puyjalon ate into the right and far-right's rural vote in what was historically one of CPNT's main strongholds.

Rousset is ahead in every department, his best result (33%) coming from Dordogne. Darrieussecq is second in her departments of the Landes (22.2%) and a close second to Rousset in Mont-de-Marsan, where she was mayor for 9 years until 2017. However, in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, stronghold of MoDem boss François Bayrou (now mayor of Pau), she got 13.8% (and only 16.8% in Pau). The real winner in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques was Puyjalon, thanks to Lassalle, who got 13.6% and won several rural communes in Lassalle's constituency.

Occitanie
Carole Delga (PS-PCF-PRG-PP)* 39.57%
Jean-Paul Garraud (RN) 22.61%
Aurélien Pradié (LR-UDI-LC-LMR) 12.19%
Antoine Maurice (EELV-Gs-GE-CE-MEI-POC) 8.84%
Vincent Terrail-Novès (LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP-MR) 8.78%
Myriam Martin (LFI-NPA-E!) 5.06%
Malena Adrada (LO) 1.77%
Jean-Luc Davezac (OPN) 0.76%
Anthony Le Boursicaud (Oth.) 0.41%
Abstention 62.76%

If there's one very impressive incumbent performance this election, it's certainly Carole Delga - incumbent PS president since 2015 - who won nearly 40% in the first round, far ahead of expectations. On the other hand, the RN did quite poorly - in a region where it has several strongholds - down 9% from 2015. The right, which has been struggling for years (even pre-macronismo) here because of the far-right, did very poorly as well, with just 12.2% for Lot deputy Aurélien Pradié. It was also LREM's worst region in metropolitan France, with just 8.8% of the vote for its candidate, the mayor of Balma (suburban Toulouse). EELV's performance was also disappointing, actually weaker than in 2015 (when it was over 10%, but allied with the FG at the time).

Delga will be easily reelected by a very comfortable margin in the runoff. There was no merger with the EELV or LFI-NPA lists here, so EELV will find itself eliminated from the regional council. Terrail-Novès, eliminated, has endorsed Delga.

Delga won every single department except for the Lot, where Pradié won nearly 35% and did very well in his constituency (western Lot), despite that region's leftist history. On the other hand, Delga won 49.2% in Lozère, which is historically a quite conservative department (not in its entirety but much of it). Garraud won 33.3% in Pyrénées-Orientales, and won in Perpignan, 28.4% in Hérault and 31.8% in the Gard.

Pays de la Loire
Christelle Morançais (LR-UDI)* 34.3%
Matthieu Orphelin (EELV-LFI-Gs-GE) 18.7%
Guillaume Garot (PS-PCF-PRG-GRS) 16.32%
Hervé Juvin (RN-PL) 12.54%
François de Rugy (LREM-MoDem-MR) 11.97%
Cécile Bayle de Jessé (DLF-CNIP) 2.96%
Eddy Le Beller (LO) 2.63%
Linda Rigaudeau (Oth.) 0.6%
Abstention 69.27%

Incumbent LR president Christelle Morançais had a good first round, winning 34%, more than expected from the polls, but still faces a very close runoff against a united left. On the left, ex-LREM deputy Matthieu Orphelin, backed by EELV and LFI, edged out Mayenne deputy Guillaume Garot (PS) by 2.4%. Orphelin and Garot very quickly announced their alliance, and together they weighed 35% in the first round, barely ahead of the right-wing incumbent - making the runoff still a real tossup. She'll try to depict Orphelin as being too far-left and radical, often making a point that his list is supported by Mélenchon. Both the far-right and macronismo did poorly. Hervé Juvin, a RN-adjacent MEP (actually he has his own micro-satellite party, the 'Localist Party'), won only 12.5%, one of the lowest results for the RN in metropolitan France, and macronista François 'I like lobster dinners' de Rugy just 12%, less than expected.

Morançais won every department except for the Mayenne, which had a strong favourite son vote for Garot, who carried the department (again not a particularly leftist one historically, by a longshot) with 36%, including up to 47% in Laval, where he was mayor. Morançais won 40% in conservative Vendée, stronghold of her predecessor Bruno Retailleau, and 40.1% in the Sarthe, where she's from. Orphelin finished ahead of Garot everywhere outside Mayenne, doing best in Maine-et-Loire (22.6%), winning in Angers, and in Loire-Atlantique (22.7%), winning in Nantes.

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
Thierry Mariani (RN) 36.38%
Renaud Muselier (LR-LREM-UDI-MoDem-LC-MR-Libres-Agir)* 31.91%
Jean-Laurent Félizia (EELV-PS-PCF-Gs-PP-PRG-GRS-MdP) 16.89%
Jean-Marc Governatori (CE) 5.28%
Isabelle Bonnet (LO) 2.76%
Noël Chuisano (DLF) 2.7%
Hervé Guerrera (POC-E!-PNO) 2.18%
Valérie Laupies (LdS) 1.66%
Mikael Vincenzi (Oth.) 0.25%
Abstention 66.28%

Renaud Muselier was the only incumbent president in metropolitan France not to finish first. He finished about 4.5% behind Thierry Mariani, the RN's candidate. Mariani won 36.4% against 31.9% for Muselier, the incumbent, which is something of an underperformance for the RN compared both to pre-election polling and 2015, when the FN - at the time led by Panzermiss - won 40.6% in the first round, miles ahead of the right's 26.5%, then led by Christian Estrosi (the mayor of Nice, today one of Muselier's main allies and the top candidate in Alpes-Maritimes). The left, united behind Jean-Laurent Félizia, did poorly - 16.9% is less than the combined result of 23.1% for the PS and EELV in 2015, which was already a very poor result for the left. Once again, the left is in a very, very bad state in PACA. Again, as with Delli, some might contend - perhaps with reason - that Félizia, a little-known green, was a poor candidate, but this begs the question - who else should it have been?

After the Muselier LR-LREM alliance drama before the first round, after the first round, we had another (shorter) drama: Félizia's initial refusal to withdraw to block the RN, until he changed his mind under intense (Parisian) pressure. The night of the first round, Félizia was adamant: he would not withdraw, arguing that Muselier was now favoured to win in a three-way runoff and that the benefit of regaining left-wing representation in the regional council outweighed the risks of a RN victory. In 2015, the left had withdrawn in PACA to defeat Panzermiss, leaving it unrepresented in the regional council. Félizia's decision seems to have been supported by his fellow candidates on his lists, although some like former Marseille mayor (now first deputy mayor) Michèle Rubirola, called on him to withdraw. It is similar to what happened in Grand Est in 2015: Jean-Pierre Masseret, third in the first round, had refused to withdraw to defeat Philippot (FN) and was disendorsed by the PS, but held firm until the end. In the end, the right defeated Philippot easily, by over 10 points, as a result of a major uptick in turnout and some left-wingers voting for the right (Masseret won essentially the same numbers, slightly lower, than in the first round). However, as early as Sunday night, the national leadership of EELV as well as the PS and PCF called on Félizia to withdraw, and on Monday morning EELV threatened to exclude him from the party if he didn't withdraw. Finally, on Monday afternoon, buckling under intense pressure, he changed his mind and withdrew, saying that he would vote Muselier to defeat Mariani. Félizia's decision has disappointed some of his supporters and fellow candidates. As a result, the left will once again be shut out of the regional council - now for two terms in a row, or 12 years. Muselier in exchange has promised a 'mechanism' to allow the left to propose motions or ideas - Bertrand had done the same six years ago in Hauts-de-France, and yeah, shockingly, nothing came of that...

So PACA faces the same kind of runoff as 6 years ago. Muselier campaigns on 'defeating the far-right' and warning of the dangers of a RN victory for the region, while Mariani campaigns against the 'Muselier-Macron alliance' (and can now point to the support of the left in a bid to attract even more LR defectors). Six years ago, the far-right was over 14% ahead of the right, whereas today it is just 4.5% ahead. Six years ago, Panzermiss went on to lose by a bit under 10% in the second round, as the left voted for Estrosi in large numbers and turnout increased by 9%. Will we see a similar outcome next Sunday? While Muselier is probably narrowly favoured to win now, it could be closer than in 2015. An Ifop poll has him leading just 51-49, predicting similarly low turnout and mediocre/bad transfers from the left.

Mariani won every department except for the Hautes-Alpes and Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, where Muselier came first. Mariani's best results were in the Vaucluse (40.5%) and Var (40.3%). Mariani narrowly placed first in Marseille with 31.9% against 30.7% for Muselier, with Félizia winning 25%.

[Conservatopia]

Why is Jean-Marie's spawn called "Panzergirl"?  It's hilarious but I'm not sure I get it.

[Hash]

Why is Jean-Marie's spawn called "Panzergirl"?  It's hilarious but I'm not sure I get it.

The term was originally coined by 'big bad fab', an excellent French poster who unfortunately is no longer active (probably one of this forum's biggest losses), probably over ten years ago, and has now become something of a forum term, at least for those who have been here for years. I've since expanded it to Panzermiss (MMLP) and Panzerdaddy (JMLP).

[kaoras]

Apparently, Euskal Herria Bai (Bildu) got second place in the French Basque Country with 26% of the vote (for the departmental elections). Obviously helped by abstention but still impressive.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why is Jean-Marie's spawn called "Panzergirl"?  It's hilarious but I'm not sure I get it.

The term was originally coined by 'big bad fab', an excellent French poster who unfortunately is no longer active (probably one of this forum's biggest losses), probably over ten years ago, and has now become something of a forum term, at least for those who have been here for years. I've since expanded it to Panzermiss (MMLP) and Panzerdaddy (JMLP).

Yep.

Related to this: any uses of the classic insult 'Poison Dwarf' in a French politics/elections thread here refer exclusively to former President Sarkozy. 'Flanby', of course, refers to former President Hollande, but that one isn't exclusive to this place.

[Cassius]

We really need some more nicknames for the newer cast members. Micro-Jupiter for Macron?

[parochial boy]

I forget who coined it, but Macron has been FBM, for "flawless beautiful Macron" for a while now