French Deparmental and Regional elections - 20th/27th June 2021

[parochial boy]

The touted postponment until 2022 is apparently no longer on the cards, so March 2021 is all but confirmed. Therefore welcome to episode 4 of "Les Aventures de Jupiter: Petit Manu et le professeur Marseillais"

Regional and Departmental elections planned to be held simultaneously in March 2021 So many fascinating mysteries to solve including:

 - "Will the Rassemblement national finally even win a department let alone a region?"

 - "Does the general meaninglessness of the exercise means that LREM finally breaks through at the local level?"

 - "Exactly how badly do LR and the PS get routed?"

 - "Will anyone ever actually figure out what a Region is even supposed to do?

 - "Do CNews finally come out in support of Adolf Hitler?"

All that and more over the next 6 months!

[CumbrianLefty]

 - "Exactly how badly do LR and the PS get routed?"

I think we can guess at least this one already......

[Antonio the Sixth]

Given that FBM seems to be bungling the second wave almost as badly as BoJo bungled the first, I wouldn't be surprised if there are changes of plans in the horizon. And for the same reason as well as others, I highly doubt LRM will have more luck here than in the municipals.

[parochial boy]

Bump... because these are actually taking place in June. And because it might give an indication of how the left will unite, or as is more likely, won't unite for 2022 here is a little explainer of the current status of alliances on the left for the regionals:

https://twitter.com/Ariel_Guez/status/1372220082374504448

Or in other words:

EELV won't unite with ayone unless they get to be at the top

Génération.S have been fully subsumed into EELV

PS are desperate and will work with anyone. As long as they still get to be in charge. So in practice mostly irrelevant micro parties like Place Publique or the Communists

LFI are surprisingly OK about not heading lists

Also, "Auvergne Rhône-Alpes" ‍🤦‍♂️

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Is PS even participating in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur elections?

[mileslunn]

Be interesting if National Rally win any and if do what impact does that have on next year's election?  That being said do prefectures really have that much power and what exactly do they do?  I know unlike in US, they don't have direct taxing power as no regional VATs or regional income taxes, but may have property taxes (someone for France could confirm this) so that there suggests probably do less.

While largely symbolic, I believe one way at least municipally, less so with departments if National Rally is in power is if town hall has no EU flag as National Rally I believe is quite anti-EU.  I know from past visits to France, most town halls usually fly both French and EU flag.  Department buildings though I noticed much less so.  I believe French law only requires French flag, no requirement to fly EU flag, nonetheless it seems most town halls have both if not governed by National Rally.  On immigration rules and enforcement of head coverings, not sure they have that much power over that although perhaps maybe more stringent enforcement.  I know in Nice where strong, police were a few years ago ticketing women for wearing Burkinis while when I was last in Paris I saw a number of women wearing niqabs and even when police saw them and they turned a blind eye.  Off course I agree with that, but I believe law bans wearing them.

[Geoffrey Howe]

LR proposing to ally itself with LREM in PACA has caused some storms:

Interesting watch:
https://www.msn.com/fr-fr/actualite/france/face-%C3%A0-duhamel-macron-fracture-la-droite-0305/vi-BB1gjByA

[parochial boy]

Is PS even participating in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur elections?

They're supposed to be announcing a joint list led by EELV today. Without LFI though.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Do any voters have any clue what “the issues” are in their département? It seems to me, in Britain at least, that people know what’s happening at the highest level - Macron/Boris - and the lowest level - potholes, libraries and road closures; but not this somewhat nebulous in between level. I was reading in Nigel Lawson’s memoirs that one of the challenges with local government is that they are effectively unaccountable - people vote on national issues, so if a local administration is doing a good job but happens to be from the unpopular party they get kicked out and vice versa.

Anyway, I asked in another place about what’s happening in Charente-Maritime and it turns out that the race in my grandmother’s canton (La Rochelle-2) is between two Divers-Gauche in what is effectively a personality spat carried on from the mayoral election; so she’s voting DVG liste soutenue by the mayoral candidate she voted for last year.

[Lechasseur]

Be interesting if National Rally win any and if do what impact does that have on next year's election?  That being said do prefectures really have that much power and what exactly do they do?  I know unlike in US, they don't have direct taxing power as no regional VATs or regional income taxes, but may have property taxes (someone for France could confirm this) so that there suggests probably do less.

While largely symbolic, I believe one way at least municipally, less so with departments if National Rally is in power is if town hall has no EU flag as National Rally I believe is quite anti-EU.  I know from past visits to France, most town halls usually fly both French and EU flag.  Department buildings though I noticed much less so.  I believe French law only requires French flag, no requirement to fly EU flag, nonetheless it seems most town halls have both if not governed by National Rally.  On immigration rules and enforcement of head coverings, not sure they have that much power over that although perhaps maybe more stringent enforcement.  I know in Nice where strong, police were a few years ago ticketing women for wearing Burkinis while when I was last in Paris I saw a number of women wearing niqabs and even when police saw them and they turned a blind eye.  Off course I agree with that, but I believe law bans wearing them.

Prefects are EXTREMELY powerful. They're probably the most powerful people in the country after the President and his cabinet (gouvernement in French), and the Constitutional Council members.

They make all the administrative decisions at local level, and even have the powers to give someone citizenship or not, to have somebody deported from the country for example, along with authorizing demonstrations or not, among other things like for example enforcing security protocols like having metro stations closed or enforcing Covid measures.

Basically imagine the prefect as a mix of governor, regional attorney general and regional head of ICE all in one. It may not be a 100% accurate description, but it gives you a pretty good idea.

However, the prefects are not elected, they're appointed by the President (just like the governors and autonomous republic presidents in Russia are appointed by the Russian President) and act as representatives of the President at departemental level.

The departmental assemblies basically decide how exactly local middle/junior high schools will be funded; I can't think of any other major prerogative they have.

No one cares about departemental elections because they don't really have much power, they're almost the equivalent of school board elections in the US.

People care about mayoral elections and national elections, but not departemental and regional ones.

[Lechasseur]

Do any voters have any clue what “the issues” are in their département? It seems to me, in Britain at least, that people know what’s happening at the highest level - Macron/Boris - and the lowest level - potholes, libraries and road closures; but not this somewhat nebulous in between level. I was reading in Nigel Lawson’s memoirs that one of the challenges with local government is that they are effectively unaccountable - people vote on national issues, so if a local administration is doing a good job but happens to be from the unpopular party they get kicked out and vice versa.

Anyway, I asked in another place about what’s happening in Charente-Maritime and it turns out that the race in my grandmother’s canton (La Rochelle-2) is between two Divers-Gauche in what is effectively a personality spat carried on from the mayoral election; so she’s voting DVG liste soutenue by the mayoral candidate she voted for last year.

Like I said above, I can't really name much of what departemental or regional councils actually do other than financing middle schools/collèges (former) or highschools/lycées (latter).

Same for most people and they frankly don't care as a result.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Do any voters have any clue what “the issues” are in their département? It seems to me, in Britain at least, that people know what’s happening at the highest level - Macron/Boris - and the lowest level - potholes, libraries and road closures; but not this somewhat nebulous in between level. I was reading in Nigel Lawson’s memoirs that one of the challenges with local government is that they are effectively unaccountable - people vote on national issues, so if a local administration is doing a good job but happens to be from the unpopular party they get kicked out and vice versa.

Anyway, I asked in another place about what’s happening in Charente-Maritime and it turns out that the race in my grandmother’s canton (La Rochelle-2) is between two Divers-Gauche in what is effectively a personality spat carried on from the mayoral election; so she’s voting DVG liste soutenue by the mayoral candidate she voted for last year.

Like I said above, I can't really name much of what departemental or regional councils actually do other than financing middle schools/collèges (former) or highschools/lycées (latter).

Same for most people and they frankly don't care as a result.

2015 got 50% turnout in 17, fwiw.

[Sir John Johns]

The RN top candidate in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté regional election, Julien Odoul, is currently embroiled into a controversy wonderfully illustrating how social the RN is and how it genuinely cares for popular classes. An audio of a 2019 reunion of the Bourgogne-Franche-Comté RN group of regional councilors dedicated to the ‘peasant well-being’ was leaked by Libération. In it, the RN councilors can be hear being hilarious and making jokes about the wave of suicides among small farmers (I saw the number of 600 for last year). One RN councilor is asking ‘Did the farmer who hanged himself from the ridge of his shed leave a mark? Did he urinated on himself?’ while Odoul responded ‘Was the rope French?’ making other councilors burst out laughing. Odoul initially pretended the discussion never happened and announced he would sue Libération for defamation, then claimed the discussion finally took place but has been secretly recorded and edited and he is now saying that the part about the rope was actually about a wolf and not a farmer. Strong suspicions that the audio was provided to Libération by internal RN opponents to Odoul (the RN group in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, like many other RN regional groups, has suffered many defections since the 2015 election with the number of its members having been reduced from 24 in 2015 to only 15 now and with 3 outgoing councilors being actually on an eligible position on the list headed by Odoul).

Odoul is only 36 but has been already the member of four different parties, starting with the Socialist Party as a supporter of Fabius, then the pro-Sarkozy center-right ‘New Center’ of Hervé Morin before joining the centrist Union of Democrats and Independents (UDI) under Jean-Louis Borloo in 2012. He joined the then-FN two years later. When young, he was also a cover model for various gay magazines and reportedly appeared in an erotic video his opponents inside the RN attempted to use against him. He received a lot of media coverage in 2019 when he confronted a Muslim hijab-wearing mother accompanying pupils on a school visit in the regional council building and demanded her to remove her veil. He since has become some sort of recurring guest (to the point like one could think he’s spending more time in Paris television studios than in the regional council) in the various garbage TV political shows involving loudmouth morons with no expertise in absolute no area giving their uninformed and very predictable opinion on absolutely every area that are now polluting airwaves, in particularly on ‘CNews’, once an all-news channel but now a TV channel without any actual reporting and even barely actual journalists at all. Of course, Odoul has never missed in his TV-appearance or on social networks an opportunity to criticize the Macron government for its class contempt, its arrogance and its disdain for rural areas.

Other RN candidates have some problems like the RN top candidate in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur Thierry Mariani, a former UMP/LR who as mayor of Valréas (Vaucluse) presided over the sharp decline of cardboard industry in that city before serving as a totally forgettable minister under Sarkozy. Mariani has reportedly difficulties to prove he is actually residing in the region he is running in (quite bad for a party which is championing 'localism' and loathing 'globalism'), as he spend his life between Brussels (where is an eurodeputy), the TV studios in Paris and Russia for his lobbying activities in favor of the most brutal dictators on Earth including Bashar al-Assad and Ilham Aliyev.

Meanwhile, in Creuse, one of the RN candidate for regional councilor has been sentenced to nine months in jail and incarcerated few days ago for domestic violence and death threats; in Ardennes, a RN candidate for départementales turned out to have been sentenced to an eight months suspended prison term in 2017 for sexual assault on a minor under 15; in Creuse, again, one candidate for départementales has previously flooded social networks with racist and antisemitic messages including one praising Shoah denier Robert Faurisson; in Gironde, another candidate for départementales has also posted antisemitic messages on her Facebook. The RN has withdrew in a hurry its support for all the aforementioned candidates. Still, few days ago, a Jewish member of the RN national council complained that people of Jewish origins have been sidelined in favor of ‘authentic anti-Semites’ in the choice of candidates and reported that someone in the party told him that ‘if there are anti-Semites, why don’t you leave the RN’.

I received today the electoral leaflets in my mailbox and, truly, the RN is considering voters as complete morons. The only information on its two candidates for départementales in my largely rural canton figuring on its leaflet is the names and their photos and that’s all! The three other lists are mentioning what are the jobs, their age, the commune of residence and, in case they have one, the elective offices held by the candidates they field as well as those of their alternates (for the RN alternate candidates, their names don’t even appear on the party’s leaflet, you have to check the ballot paper provided with each leaflet to know them). The RN leaflet only specifies that the two nobodies are ‘MARINE LE PEN’s candidates’ with ‘MARINE LE PEN’ written in a larger font that the names of the actual candidates and a picture of Le Pen in case you haven’t understand.

On the other side of the leaflet, another photo of Le Pen, the sentences ‘FOR OUR DEPARTEMENT MAKE THE CHOICE OF PROXIMITY and SOCIAL PROTECTION’ and in [insert département name] WE WILL DO IT followed by the ‘platform’ of the candidates which is pretty transparently the exact same one, word for word (except the name of the départment, of course), that those of every other RN candidates in every other French canton. Said platform is just a collection of platitudes with absolutely ZERO concrete measures; stuff like ‘one euro spent by the département will be one euro in favor of the quality of life of French people’ (that the #1 ‘proposal’) and ‘We will favore the culture and the identity of our département’ (#5 and last ‘proposal’), the one being totally surreal as the RN leaflet is the only one without any word in Breton language nor photos of the natural or urban sites of the area (it even possible that the two candidates, appearing on a white background, weren’t photographed together). Also included is a ‘Do you know?’ about minor migrants who aren’t actually minors you see, are costing ‘40,000€ a year to the département’ and are responsible of the ‘explosion of insecurity’ like ‘2 infractions/crimes a day in Bordeaux in 2020’ but, fortunately, ONLY OUR ELECTED PEOPLE WILL PUT AN END TO THIS SCANDAL!, because apparently, voting for RN candidates in Finistère for départemental councilors (an electoral function with zero prerogatives in the areas of justice and public safety) will somehow solve insecurity problems in Bordeaux.

[Oliver]

In how many departments do PS / EELV / PCF run joint candidates (binôme)?

[FredLindq]

Projections  based on the latest opinion polls

Île-de-France
Candidate              Party                 Opinion polls First round/Second round
Nathalie Arthaud   LO                      1,7%, -      
Clémentine Autain   LFI-PCF              10%, -, Supports EELV
Audrey Pulvar      PS-PRG-GRS      10,3%, Supports EELV
Julien Bayou      EÉLV-G·s-CÉ-GÉ            11,8%, 27,3%      
Victor Pailhac      REV                       0,5%, -      
Éric Berlingen      UDMF               0,3%, -      
Fabiola Conti      Volt-PACE-NC-ANLD   0,5%, -      
Laurent Saint-Martin   LREM-MoDem-Agir   13,5%, 15,8%         
Valérie Pécresse    SL-LR-UDI-MEI      33,8%, 38,3%      
Jordan Bardella           RN-LDP              17,8%, 19,0%   
                  
Incumbent: Xavier Valérie Pécresse (SL)
Leans: Xavier Valérie Pécresse (SL)
Projection: Safe LR (Right) - Right Hold

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Candidate      Party      Opinion polls First round/Second round
Chantal Gomez13   LO      1,5%, -
Cécile Cukierman   PCF-LFI-E!      5,7%, EELV
Najat Vallaud-Belkacem   PS-PRG-GRS-CÉ-PCF diss.   11,0%, EELV
Farid Omeir      UDMF      0,5%, -      
Fabienne Grébert   EÉLV-G·s-GÉ-MdP-ND-AE   11,0%, 24,0%      
Bruno Bonnell      MR-LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP   14,0%, 15,7%      
Laurent Wauquiez   LR-UDI-LC-LMR    34,3%, 38%      
Andréa Kotarac   PL-RN-LDP-LAF   22,0%, 22,3%
               
Incumbent: Laurent Wauquiez (LR)
Leans: Laurent Wauquiez (LR)
Projection: Safe LR (Right) - Right Hold

Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Candidate      Party      Opinion polls First round/Second round
Guillaume Perchet   LO      1,5%,-   
Clémence Guetté   LFI-NPA diss.-PCF diss.   4,0%, PS
Alain Rousset      PS-PRG-PCF-PP-LEF   25,0%, 36,5%      
Nicolas Thierry   EÉLV-G·s-GÉ-CÉ-GRS-PA   10,0%, PS
Geneviève Darrieussecq    MoDem-LREM-Agir-TdP-UDI-MR 18,0%, 21,5%   
Eddie Puyjalon   LMR-RES-MDC-UPF-RPF   3,0%, -      
Nicolas Florian   LR-LC-UDI diss.-MR diss.   13,5%, 16,0%      
Edwige Diaz   RN-LDP-PL-LAF      25,0%, 26,0%   

If Nicolas Florian (LR) withdraws and support Geneviève Darrieussecq (MoDem) in the second round would be PS 42%, LREM 30% and FN 28% so still safe PS.               

Incumbent: Alain Rousset (PS)
Leans: Alain Rousset (PS)
Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold

Occitanie
Candidate      Party      Opinion polls First round/Second round
Malena Adrada   LO      1,5%, -
Myriam Martin   LFI-PG-E!-GDS-NPA   4,3%, PS
Carole Delga      PS-PRG-PCF-PP-MRC-GRS-OE  29,5%, 40,5%
Antoine Maurice   EÉLV-G•s-GÉ-CÉ-PA-RPS-MEI-POC 9,0%, PS      
Jean-Luc Davezac   OPN-RES      1,0%, -      
Vincent Terrail-Novès   DVC-LREM-MoDem-Agir-MR-TdP 11,0%, 13,5%
Aurélien Pradié   LR-UDI-LC-LMR   11,5%, 13,0%      
Jean-Paul Garraud   LDP-RN-PL-LAF   32,0%, 33,0%                        

Incumbent: Carole Delga (PS)
 Leans: Carole Delga (PS)
Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold
         

Hauts-de-France
Candidate      Party      Opinion polls First round/Second round
Éric Pecqueur      LO      1,7%,  -            
Karima Delli      EÉLV-PS-PRG-PCF-G·s-LFI-GÉ    19%, 19,3%,    
Laurent Pietraszewski   LREM-MoDem-Agir   10,7%, 10,7%,      
Xavier Bertrand    LR-UDI-SL-LMR   34%, 35,7 %      
José Evrard      DLF      2,3%, -,       
Sébastien Chenu   RN-LDP-CNIP      32%, 34,3%

If Laurent Pietraszewski (LREM) withdraws and support Xavier Bertrand (LR) in the second round would be LR 44%, RN 35% and EELV 21% so it would be safe LR.

Incumbent: Xavier Bertrand (LR)
Leans: Xavier Bertrand (LR)
Projection: Toss up or  Leans LR (Right) - Right Hold

Grand Est
Candidate      Party      Opinion polls First round/Second round
Louise Fève      LO      1,5%, -
Aurélie Filippetti    G·s-LFI-GRS-LRDG-GDS-PS diss.-PCF diss. 6,0%, EELV
Éliane Romani      EÉLV-PS-PCF-CÉ-GÉ-MdP   14,0%, 20,0%
Martin Meyer      UL      3,0%, -   
Adil Tyane      UDMF      1,0%, -      
Brigitte Klinkert   DVD-LREM-TdP-MoDem-Agir    15,0%, 19,0%
Jean Rottner      LR-UDI-MR-MHAN-LMRNote    27,5%, 30,0%   
Laurent Jacobelli   RN-LDP-CNIP-PL-DR-LAF   25,0%, 31%
Florian Philippot   LP-VIA      7,0%, -      

Brigitte Klinkert (DVD) withdraws and support Jean Rottner (LR) in the second round, it would be LR 45%, RN 31% and EELV 24%, so it would be safe LR.

Incumbent: Jean Rottner    (LR)
Leans: Toss up between Jean Rottner (LR) right and Laurent Jacobelli (RN) Ext. R
Projection: Toss up or Leans LR (Right) - Right Hold


Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
Candidate      Party      Opinion polls First round/Second round
Isabelle Bonnet   LO      1,3%, -   
Jean-Laurent Félizia   EÉLV-PS-PRG-PCF-GRS-G.s-GÉ 16,3%, 21%
Jean-Marc Governatori   CÉ      3,0%, -
Hervé Guerrera   POC      0,4%, -   
Mikael Vincenzi   DIV      0,8%, -, -   
Renaud Muselier *   LR-UDI-LREM-MoDem-Agir-LMR 33,3%. 34,5%
Noël Chuisano      DLF      1,8%, -   
Thierry Mariani   LDP-RN-CNIP      41,8%. 44,5%
Valérie Laupies   LS      1,6%,

if Jean-Laurent Félizia (EELV) withdraws and support  Renaud Muselier(LR) in the second round, it would be LDP 51,3% and LR 48,7%, so the scond round so it would be a toss up

Incumbent: Renaud Muselier (LR)
Leans: Toss up beteende Renaud Muselier (LR) and Thierry Mariani (LDP)
Projection: Toss up, or Leans LDP (Extreme Right) – Extreme Right gain
         
Pays de la Loire
Second round: Left 32%, LREM  22,5%, Right 25%, Ext Right 20,5%
Incumbent:  Christelle Morançais (LR)
Leans: Mattgieu Orphelin (EELV)
Projection: Leans EELV (Left) – Left gain


Bretagne
Second round: Left 39%, LREM  21%, Right 16%, Ext Right 24%
Incumbent: Loïg Chesnais-Girard (PS)
Leans: Loïg Chesnais-Girard (PS)
Projection: Safe PS (Left) - Left Hold

Normandie
Scond round: Left 25,7%, LREM  15%, Right 31,3%, Ext Right 28%
If Bonnaterre (TdP), centre supports Hervé Morin (LC) in the second round, it would be Right 42%, Ext right 29% and left 29%, and it would be a safe Right
Incumbent: Hervé Morin (LC), right
Leans: Toss up between Hervé Morin (LC), right and Nicolas Bay (RN) extreme right
Projection: Tossup or Leans LC (Right) - Right Hold


Bourgogne-Franche-Comté
Second round: Left 27%, LREM  17%, Right 24%, Ext Right 32%
If Thuriot (LREM), centre support Platret (LR), right in the second round would be Left 35%, Right 33% and 42% and Ext right 32%, so it would be clear toss up
Incumbent:   Marie-Guite Dufay (PS)
Leans: Toss up between Marie-Guite Dufay (PS) and Julien Odoul (RN), extre right or even Platret (LR), right.
Projection: Tossup

Centre-Val de Loire
Second round: Left 29%, MoDem, centre 25%, Right 16%, Ext Right 30%
If  Nicolas Forissier (LR), right, withdraws and supports Marc Fesneau MoDem, centre, in the second round, it would be Left 34%, Centre 33% and Ext right 33%, and iit would be clear toss up
Incumbent: François Bonneau (PS)
Leans: Toss up between Marie-Guite Dufay (PS) and JNikolic (RN), extrme right, or even  Marc Fesneau MoDem, centre.
Projection: Tossup


Corse
First round: Reginalists 50%, Left 13%, TDP, centre 9%, Right 23%, Ext Right 5%
Incumbent: Président de l'assemblée de Corse   Jean-Guy Talamoni (CL), regonalist Sepatarist, Left,
and Président du conseil exécutif de Corse  Gilles Simeoni (FC), regionalist, autonomist, nationalist
Leans: Gilles Simeoni (FC), autonomist, nationalist
Projection: Safe FC (Regionalist)– Regionalist Hold

[Hash]

So, this is tomorrow, right? Yeah, I haven't followed much and the outcome is likely to recomfort me in my decision to avoid paying attention to these elections, and in any case I'm meeting a friend rather than following results tomorrow.

A quick reminder of the rules of the game:

For the regional elections, the threshold to qualify for the second round is 10% of valid votes (7% in Corsica). A list which has won less than 10% but more than 5% may merge with a qualified list. In the runoff, the winning list receives a majority bonus of 25% of all seats, the remaining 75% of the seats are distributed proportionally. This means that there is a possibility that, in a three or four-way runoff, the winning list may not win an absolute majority even with the majority bonus - this would likely happen if the winning list only wins ~33% of the vote. In 2015, in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, in a close three-way runoff, the victorious left-wing list won 34.7% and 51 out of the 100 seats, a one-seat majority. Given the very high possibility of closely disputed three or even four-way runoffs in some metropolitan regions, next week we could very well see one regional council without an absolute majority.

For the departmental elections, 'ghost' elections largely ignored and forgotten by the national media, there are 2,054 cantons which each elect two councillors (one man, one woman), a binôme (which run as a single ticket). The rules are the same as for legislative elections here: to win outright in the first round, a ticket must win an absolute majority and at least 25% of registered voters; to qualify for the second round, a ticket must win at least 12.5% of registered voters (if no ticket has obtained this, then the top two qualify) and there is no possibility of mergers. Therefore, with turnout expected to be quite low, we will likely see fewer first round victories (even if a ticket has 50%+ of votes cast) and fewer three-way runoffs. In 2015, with turnout just below 50%, there were 278 triangulaires (about 14.6% of second round matchups) and 149 first round victories.


Here are my assorted thoughts, if anybody cares:

• Incumbent presidents, especially those elected in their own right six years ago, will have an advantage and most of them should be reelected. Presidents who replaced someone since 2015 - Renaud Muselier (LR, PACA), Jean Rottner (LR, Grand Est), Loïg Chesnais-Girard (PS, Bretagne) and Christelle Morançais (LR, PdL) - will face a tougher contest.
• Given the electoral system, the division of the political field in four (left/macronismo/right/RN) and the difficulty of reconciling these parts, all regions will likely see at least three-way runoffs if not four-way runoffs. These can be quite uncertain, as Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Centre-Val de Loire in 2015 demonstrated. As mentioned above, this also opens the possibility of a regional council without any absolute majorities if the victorious list only 'wins' with a third or less of the vote in the runoff next Sunday.
• The left, as always, is divided almost everywhere (split in two if not three or more), and even if it is united in the two regions where it is at its weakest (PACA and Hauts-de-France, where they have no representation after having withdrawn from the runoffs in 2015 to block the far-right), that's still not enough to even hope for a second place in elections polarized between the right and RN. In some regions, with their divisions, the left are playing with fire and, if things don't go well, they could be dealt a very nasty surprise: not qualifying for the runoff (I still have nasty memories of what happened in Languedoc-Roussillon in 2010). In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, the two top left-wing lists (one PS+allies and EELV+allies) are evenly matched and both hovering close to the 10% threshold, which is too close for comfort. In Île-de-France, there are three left-wing lists (Julien Bayou's EELV-G.s, Audrey Pulvar's PS-PRG-PP and Clémentine Autain's LFI-PCF) which are very closely packed, again right around that 10% threshold.
• Macronismo has gone it own ways everywhere except in PACA, where they are supporting LR (something which created a long and confusing psychodrama on the right, which might have been FBM's intention all along). Several prominent figures and cabinet ministers have lined up: Marc Fesneau (MoDem junior minister for parliamentary relations in Centre), Brigitte Klinkert (DVD ex-LR junior minister for professional inclusion in Grand Est), Laurent Pietraszewski (LREM sec. of state for pensions in Hauts-de-France), Geneviève Darrieussecq (MoDem junior minister for veterans in Nouvelle-Aquitaine), Marlène Schiappa (LREM junior minister for citizenship is the top candidate on the list in Paris), Amélie de Montchalin (LREM minister of the civil service is the top candidate on the list in Essonne) and Éric Dupond-Moretti (justice minister is the top candidate in the Pas-de-Calais).
  In most places, LREM is likely to do rather poorly, although they should clear the 10% threshold nearly everywhere. Their strongest regions will likely be Bretagne, Pays-de-la-Loire, Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Centre. Their behaviour may become quite critical in several regions in the second round: given that alliances with LREM would likely do more harm than good for both the left and right in most places, they're unlikely to be wanted (although Jean-Yves Le Drian would love to see his old PS and LREM reconcile - without the pesky greenies - in his Breton hometurf, although the PS might not want that), but in some cases they might be needed, particularly if the RN is a real threat.
• RN's best chance at winning a region is PACA - where they are probably favourites now, even if the left and macronismo were to withdraw to block them and create a two-way runoff. RN has benefited from a perfect storm in PACA: it is naturally one of their strongest regions; the LR-LREM alliance psychodrama with LR incumbent Muselier backfired and has played right into the hands of the RN's strategy here, which is to be the real right-wing alternative to a confusing and Macron-contaminated old right. For that, their candidate helps as well: Thierry Mariani, now a RN MEP/lobbyist for Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad, is a former (very right-wing and FN-adjacent) UMP deputy and was a (very forgettable) cabinet minister under Sarkozy, and had already run in PACA in 2010 as the UMP's candidate.
• The RN has a realistic shot in several other regions: Centre (an underrated possibility of a real clusterfark in a potential 4-way runoff), Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (again in the case of a 4-way runoff), Normandie (as previous), Grand Est (as previous, depending on whether Rottner allies with LREM, as some on the right have suspected him of wanting to do) and Hauts-de-France (as previous: here it may come down if Macron wants to roll the dice on a RN victory here if it could potentially scuttle Xavier Bertrand's 2022 candidacy). But I would be wary of making overly pessimistic or optimistic predictions about the runoff even before we have first round numbers: a lot can happen in that week, as 2015 showed.
• The left's best chance at gaining a region in metropolitan France seems to be the Pays-de-la-Loire, a region where muh trends have in general been favourable to the left. LR incumbent Christelle Morançais took over from Bruno Retailleau in 2017 and is not very well known. While she will likely finish first with an anemic result tomorrow, she will have almost no reserves. Whereas the left could benefit from second round unity: in the first round they are split between the PS-PCF-PRG's Guillaume Garot (Mayenne deputy, former agriculture minister and former mayor of Laval) and EELV-LFI-G.s's Matthieu Orphelin (ex-EELV and ex-LREM deputy close to Nicolas Hulot), with the latter having an advantage. LREM's candidate is Loire-Atlantique deputy and former environment minister François de Rugy, fan of taxpayer-funded lobster dinners, who may win upwards of 15%.
• Corsica will be an interesting mess: unlike in 2017, the outgoing nationalist majority is divided between three lists: executive council president Gilles Simeoni's autonomist Femu a Corsica, Assembly president Jean-Guy Talamoni's separatist Corsica Libera and Porto-Vecchio mayor Jean-Christophe Angelini's PNC; in addition to the more radical separatist Rinnovu/Core in Fronte led by Paul-Félix Benedetti. Together they face a stronger and united (!) right, led by Ajaccio mayor Laurent Marcangeli. Next week will be interesting...

[Tirnam]

Turnout at noon: 12.2%, it was 16.3% in 2015.

Perhaps the turnout will be even lower than expected (maybe under 40%?)

[jaichind]

Any links to results ?

[parochial boy]

I haven't paid any attention to these either as it turns out - no-one has as far as I can tell. One thing to look out for, if not mentioned already, is whether or not (most likely not) we see much in the way of "désistements républicains" in the second round. As in, back in 2015, the PS /left stood down in the second round in Hauts-de-France and PACA to block the RN's way. This year, relations between left and righ having soured quite noticeably - it seems rather unlikely that this will happen again.

Or to put it in other words, LR/LREM treading ever more on the RN's turf has served to both normalise the far right - and to very much quash the potential for anti-RN "republican fronts" (quite a few right wing politicos and pundits have already quite explicitely expressed a preference for the far right over the left).

[jaichind]

I haven't paid any attention to these either as it turns out - no-one has as far as I can tell. One thing to look out for, if not mentioned already, is whether or not (most likely not) we see much in the way of "désistements républicains" in the second round. As in, back in 2015, the PS /left stood down in the second round in Hauts-de-France and PACA to block the RN's way. This year, relations between left and righ having soured quite noticeably - it seems rather unlikely that this will happen again.

Or to put it in other words, LR/LREM treading ever more on the RN's turf has served to both normalise the far right - and to very much quash the potential for anti-RN "republican fronts" (quite a few right wing politicos and pundits have already quite explicitely expressed a preference for the far right over the left).

But with the 2022 Prez election in mind would not LREM have an incentive stand down in places where it made it into the second round and RN is strong to back the strongest alternative to RN ?

[Tirnam]

Turnout at 5pm : 26.7% (43% in 2015).

Ifop projects the final turnout to be at 32%. In the Vth Republic only the 2000 referendum had a worst turnout (30%).

For an election I think the record low for turnout was 40% for the 2009 EU election.

[Zinneke]

I actually wouldn't be surprised if the Presidential turnout will be the lowest of its kind too. The (elderly) vote banks are declining, the interest is declining, this is just a general backdrop of French society, the equivalent of a very popular soap opera.

We've had an interesting debate in Belgium following Flanders' decision to scrap compulsory voting for their local elections which has triggered a rubicon moment. I do think we will see what abstentionism will look like in the Presidential. It means all is in play by definition of who can motivate the most. At the same time, Macron has the better demographics of people who actually turn out and by then anti-lockdown sentiment will not be salient enough to turn out the cranks.

[Mike88]

Big flop for Le Pen according to exit polls. LR and PS quite strong. LREM very bad.

Ipsos exit poll:

https://twitter.com/IpsosFrance/status/1406673302924505098

[Mike88]

Elabe/BFMTV nationwide exit poll:

29.3% LR and allies
19.1% RN
16.5% PS and allies
13.2% EELV and allies
10.9% LREM and allies
  4.6% LFI and allies
  2.2% LO
  1.5% Sovereignists
  2.7% Others

[windjammer]

It is a disaster for RN and En Marche. That's why I don't believe in inevitable Le Pen-Macron run off for 2022