French Deparmental and Regional elections - 20th/27th June 2021

[Hash]

Apparently, Euskal Herria Bai (Bildu) got second place in the French Basque Country with 26% of the vote (for the departmental elections). Obviously helped by abstention but still impressive.

Yes, EH Bai ran candidates in all the cantons of the French Basque Country (as in 2015) and around ~24.7%, not only up from what I've calculated they got in 2015 (16.1%) but also about 3,000 raw votes more than in 2015, which is quite impressive considering low turnout.

They had one incumbent binôme in Nive-Adour - one of them, Alain Iriart, mayor of Saint-Pierre-d'Irube, who didn't seek reelection, and his colleague sought reelection as an independent. The EH Bai ticket won 27% there, ahead of the one incumbent's ticket (18.8%) but behind the 'departmental majority' (right/centre) which won 40%, so they might be able to hold it in the runoff. They're also in the runoff in the cantons of Baïgura et Mondarrain (as the sole left-wing ticket, second behind the incumbents who won over 53% already), Hendaye-Côte Basque-Sud (in first with 29%, ahead of the PS incumbent), Montagne Basque (as the sole left-wing ticket, second behind the incumbents who won 52% already), Pays de Bidache, Amikuze et Ostibarre (in second, but the incumbents - including the departmental council president - already won over 52%), Saint-Jean-de-Luz (as the sole left-wing ticket, second behind the right who won 48%) and Ustaritz-Vallées de Nive et Nivelle (in second, behind the right which got 42%). So if they're lucky they could increase their presence from 2 to 4+ seats.

EH Bai is a left-wing abertzale movement. Their main regionalist demand is the transformation of the Urban community of the Basque Country - an intercommunal structure created in 2017 covering the entirety of the French Basque Country (indeed the first formal institutional structure in France covering all of the Basque Country) - into a stronger territorial collectivity which would replace the department (i.e. basically create a separate Basque department, a longstanding demand of the nationalist movement [and promised by Mitterrand in 1981]). Their actual campaigns, given the limited powers of the departmental council to impact their political aims, focused on issues like the environment, housing and opposition to high-speed rail in the region. In some cantons they were the sole left-wing alternative and were likely supported by the likes of the PS and EELV.

The Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ-PNB) is also active on the French side, but they didn't run their own candidates this year and seem to have supported the right in Baïgura et Mondarrain, and a centrist ticket in Biarritz.

[parochial boy]

And in News™, Valérie Pécresse is calling for a "front républicain" (including, apparently, a certain Nicolas Dupont-Aignan) against... the Greens.

Country's fücked, lol

[Zinneke]

We really need some more nicknames for the newer cast members. Micro-Jupiter for Macron?

Micron is used pretty commonly, as is Manu after the episode where he reprimanded a kid for calling him that.

[Zinneke]

And in News™, Valérie Pécresse is calling for a "front républicain" (including, apparently, a certain Nicolas Dupont-Aignan) against... the Greens.

Country's fücked, lol

[Sir John Johns]

The RN is ahead in most major cities notably Marseilles (31.9%), Nice (37.1%), Avignon (34.1%), Cannes (39.8%), La Seyne-sur-Mer (36.0%), Hyères (38.5%), Fréjus whose mayor is a member of the RN (52.9%), Arles (31.7%), Martigues (32.6%), Cagnes-sur-Mer (42.1%), Grasse (34.1%) and Aubagne (32.4%). Meanwhile, in the twenty-seven communes with over 20,000 registered voters, the list led by outgoing president of PACA Renaud Muselier (LR) only came first in Toulon (38.7% against 36.5% for Mariani’s list), Aix-en-Provence (37.9% against 25.3%), Antibes (36.8% against 35.5%), Salon-de-Provence (42.6% against 30.1%) and Gap (37.0% against 23.2%), receiving its worst result in Martigues, a traditional left-wing stronghold led by the PCF since 1959 (19.4% against 32.6% for Mariani’s list and 27.4% for Félizia’s list, the strongest performance of that list in a major city). The list led by Félizia came ahead in no commune with over 20,000 registered (but came ahead in several arrondissements of Marseilles, receiving 53.2% of the vote in the 1st arrondissement and 40.9% in 5th arrondissement) receiving less than 10% in three communes: Cannes (8.4%), Fréjus (9.0%) and Saint-Raphaël (8.0%). The largest commune it won seems to be the industrial harbor of Port-de-Bouc with 40.8%.

Workers’ Struggle (LO) managed to win a commune (Saint-Auban-d’Oze, Hautes-Alpes; in 2017 presidential first round, Mélenchon placed here first with 29.3% while Nathalie Arthaud placed fourth with 10.3% of the vote miles away from her 0.6% national result) with 46.9% of the 32 votes cast and to received 36.4% of the vote in La Haute-Beaume (also in Hautes-Alpes) tying the RN for first place with four votes each. It also received 16.0% of the vote in Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône and 10.7% in Port-de-Bouc. Governatori’s ecologist list received 33.3% of the vote in Majastres (Alpes-de-Haute-Provence) hence tying the RN as the most-voted list in that commune (only 9 votes cast however); the only half-relevant commune in which the list received more than 10% is Valbonne (13,250 inhabitants) where it got 10.4% of the vote.

In Étoile-Saint-Cyrice (Hautes-Alpes, in the same canton than Saint-Auban-d’Oze and La Haute-Beaume), the election ended with the RN, the LR, the EÉLV/PS/PCF and the regionalist list all tying for first place with three votes (21.4%) each; LO here received 14.3% of the vote (two votes).

[Hash]

Panzergirl may be right: the Muslims are slowly taking over. More seriously, the Union des démocrates musulmans français (UDMF), the political party which likely gets the greatest amount of attention disproportionate to its actual strength, ran lists in four regions (AURA, Grand Est, IDF, Bzh) and got, at most, 0.66% in IDF. The UDMF claims to be a left-wing party defending Muslim interests and fighting Islamophobia, although its critics - and, shockingly, there are a lot - consider it to be 'communautariste' or Islamist.

Anyway in Grand Est, the UDMF actually came first in one commune and a strong second in another, both in Moselle!

On a turnout of 25.5%, the UDMF won Farébersviller (Moselle) with 27.28% against 14.62% for the RN, 13.58% for the right, 10.18% for EELV-PS and 10.05% for Philippot. Farébersviller has a population of around 5,500. In Behren-lès-Forbach, on 22.6% turnout, the UDMF was second with 21.23%, against 22.1% for the right, 17% for the RN and 10.6% for Philippot. Behren-lès-Forbach has a population of around 6,600.

Both are located in the Moselle coal mining basin, and both towns were built in the 1950s as company towns (built by the Houillères du Bassin de Lorraine) to house workers in nearby coal mines - initially a lot of Italian immigrants, today the (declining) population is predominantly North African (around 30% of the population are immigrants - foreign citizens or naturalized citizens born abroad). The population of both communes have been declining ever since the 1960s - Behren-lès-Forbach's population was 12,500 in 1968, while Farébersviller's population was 8,400 in 1962. Both communes are very poor - the poverty rate is nearly 50%, and in both places most of the population lives in low-income cités.

According to precinct maps here, the UDMF list also won four precincts in Strasbourg, amidst very low turnout, obviously in low-income immigrant areas like Elsau. I should try to look at precinct results in places like Trappes and Mantes-la-Jolie to see if they had any particularly strong results there.

[NewYorkExpress]

In the first round of the reigonal elections, almost 90% of young voters did not vote.

In an open space near Châtelet in central Paris, lanky young men - their knees and elbows folded around BMX bikes - dodge skateboarders out practising their moves.

For some of them, France's regional elections this month are their first ever opportunity to vote. But when polls opened for the first round of voting last Sunday, almost 90% of the country's youngest voters failed to show up.

Abstention rates were only slightly lower for voters under 35. The second round run-offs take place on Sunday.

[Hash]

To complement Sir John Johns' awesome map of PACA, here is a map of the precinct results in Marseille:



I don't feel like writing much now so I'll just say that the left's support is heavily downtown-centric and much weaker than it should have been in the north, in large part because of how catastrophically low turnout was in the cités (and, of the 10-15% who voted there, the right did quite well). A similar thing happened in the 2020 municipal elections.

While the right did best in its traditional upper-class bourgeois strongholds in the south, Mariani did much better than Panzergirl in those precincts, which shows that Mariani attracted a lot of right-wing defectors in the right's traditional strongholds.

[Sir John Johns]

I will not make all of them but, after Brittany (where I’m living) and PACA (where I have family ties), here Centre-Val de Loire, which seems one of the most interesting races (and didn’t required too much work):



Incumbent Socialist president François Bonneau came ahead in almost all urban centers, notably in Vierzon (41.1%), Bourges (33.2%), Blois (29.9%), Orléans (27.5%), Châteauroux (26.8%), Tours (25.9%) and Chartres (23.3%, less than his regional average) and numerous middle-size towns like Amboise (26.5%), Issoudun (39.7%), Gien (29.9%), Châteaudun (27.7%), Montargis (30.3%), Nogent-le-Rotrou (45.6%), Chinon (25.0%). Conversely, the RN list received results under average in the major cities (15.4% in Tours, 13.4% in Orléans, 16.5% in Bourges, 17.2% in Châteauroux, 16.1% in Blois, 15.6% in Chartres and even ‘only’ 19.8% in Dreux, the city where the FN famously made its breakthrough in the 1983 municipals). It best major city was Vierzon with 23.3% while it reached 27.3% in Lucé (15,000 inhabitants) in Eure-et-Loir.

Besides of the quite apparent rural/urban cleavage between the PS/PCF/PRG and the RN list, some favorite son effect in favor of the LR Forissier in the part of Indre he is a deputy from (reaching 46.6% in La Châtre, the 4,000-inhabitant commune he used to be a mayor of) and in favor of the MoDem/LREM Fesneau in the part of Loir-et-Cher he represented at the National Assembly (and receiving his best regional result with 69.6% in the commune of Marchenoir he used to be a mayor of). The LR candidate also received strong results in Sologne, a rural area where hunting (the posh and ‘aristocratic’ hunting type rather than the alcoholic rural proles of Les Inconnus comedy sketch hunting type) is an important economic activity while coming ahead in the cities Dreux (31.6%) and Saint-Amand-Montrond (27.8%) and in Saint-Cyr-sur-Loire (29.21%), Joué-lès-Tours (32.1%) and Fondettes (24.6%), all communes parts of the Tours agglomeration. Meanwhile, Fesneau won only two communes with over 10,000 registered voters: Olivet (apparently a pretty wealthy suburb of Orléans whose municipality, per Wikipedia, has been the only one in the whole Centre-Val de Loire to be fined for not meeting the legal required share of social housing in the commune) where he got 34.1% of the valid vote and Vendôme where he received 22.3% against 21.9% for both Bonneau and Forissier.

[FredLindq]

Opinion polls before the second round

Île-de-France
Candidate              Party                 First round       Opinion polls (2)
Valérie Pécresse    SL-LR-UDI-MEI     35,9%             43,5%
 Julien Bayou      EÉLV-G·s-CÉ-GÉ            13,0 (34,3% in total) 31,0%
(Merged list with    Audrey Pulvar, PS-PRG-GRS 11,1% and Clémentine Autain  LFI-PCF 10,2%)  
Jordan Bardella           RN-LDP              13,1%.        13,0%
Laurent Saint-Martin   LREM-MoDem-Agir  11,            12,5%

Projection : Leans LR - Right holds

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Candidate              Party                 First round       Opinion polls (1)
Laurent Wauquiez   LR-UDI-LC-LMR  43,8%              58%
Fabienne Grébert   EÉLV-G·s-GÉ-MdP-ND-AE 14,5% (32,0% in total) 29%
(Merged with Cécile Cukierman   PCF-LFI-E! 5,6% Najat Vallaud-Belkacem  PS-PRG-GRS-CÉ-PCF diss. 11,4%)
Andréa Kotarac   PL-RN-LDP-LAF   12,3%                  13%

Projection: Safe LR (Right) - Right Hold

Hauts-de-France
Candidate              Party                 First round       Opinion polls (1)
Xavier Bertrand    LR-UDI-SL-LMR    41,4%.             53%
Sébastien Chenu   RN-LDP-CNIP    24,4%.                26%
Karima Delli      EÉLV-PS-PRG-PCF-G·s-LFI-GÉ  19,0% 21%

Projection: Safe LR (Right) - Right Hold

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
Candidate              Party                 First round       Opinion polls (2)
Renaud Muselier    LR-UDI-LREM-MoDem-Agir-LMR 31,9% 50,5%
Thierry Mariani      LDP-RN-CNIP  36,4%.                         49,5%

Projection: Toss up between extreme right and right, Extreme right might gain

[Zinneke]

A good summary of the favourites in the second round :

[jaichind]

Exit polls

Right    38%
Left      34%
RN       20%
LREM     7%

It seems exit polls indicate RN loses PACA

[Sir John Johns]

Bad night for the RN and even more for LREM while turnout barely increased nationwide. All incumbent presidents are reelected bar Didier Robert, the right-wing president of La Réunion regional council who is defeated by the left-winger Huguette Bello (Pour la Réunion/LFI).

IPSOS exit polls:

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Laurent Wauquiez (LR/UDI/LC/SL) [inc.] 55.9%
Fabienne Grébert (EELV/G.s/PS/PRG/PCF) 32.7%
Andréa Kotarac (RN) 11.4%

Bourgogne-Franche-Comté
Marie-Guite Dufay (PS/PRG/PCF/EÉLV) [inc.] 42.5%
Gilles Platret (LR/UDI/SL/DLF) 24.4%
Julien Odoul (RN) 23.7%
Denis Thuriot (LREM/MoDem) 9.4%

Brittany
Loïg Chesnais-Girard (PS/PCF/PRG/ecologist) [inc.] 29.8%
Isabelle Le Callenec (LR/SL/LC) 22.1%
Claire Desmares-Poirrier (EÉLV/UDB) 19.8%
Thierry Burlot (LREM/MoDem) 14.9%
Gilles Pennelle (RN) 13.4%

No majority in the regional council; Chesnais-Girard need to ally either with the Greens either with LREM. LREM bigwig Richard Ferrand reportedly failing to get elected a regional councilor.

Centre-Val de Loire
François Bonneau (PS/PCF/MRG/EÉLV/LFI) [inc.] 38.5%
Aleksandar Nikolic (RN) 22.7%
Nicolas Forissier (LR/UDI) 22.7%
Marc Fesneau (MoDem/LREM) 16.1%

Corsica
Gilles Simeoni (FaC) [inc.] 39.7%
Laurent Marcangeli (LR/UDI/CCB) 32.1%
Jean-Christophe Angelini (PNC/CL) 15.2%
Paul-Félix Benedetti (Rinnovu) 13.0%

Grand-Est
Jean Rottner (LR/UDI) [inc.] 39.0%
Laurent Jacobelli (RN) 27.1%
Éliane Romani (EÉLV/PS/PCF) 21.1%
Brigitte Klinkert (LREM/MoDem) 12.8%

Hauts-de-France
Xavier Bertrand (LR/UDI) [inc.] 53.0%
Sébastien Chenu (RN) 25.6%
Karima Delli (EÉLV/LFI/PS/PRG/PCF) 21.4%


Île-de-France
Valérie Pécresse (SL/LR/UDI) [inc.] 44.1%
Julien Bayou (EÉLV/PS/PRG/LFI/PCF) 34.6%
Jordan Bardella (RN) 11.8%
Laurent Saint-Martin (LREM/MoDem) 9.5%

Normandie
Hervé Morin (LC/LR/SL) [inc.] 44.2%
Mélanie Boulanger (PS/EÉLV) 25.9%
Nicolas Bay (RN) 20.1%
Laurent Bonnaterre (LREM/MoDem) 9.8%

Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Alain Rousset (PS/PRG/PCF) [inc.] 39.3%
Edwige Diaz (RN) 18.9%)
Nicolas Florian (LR/LC/UDI) 14.3%
Nicolas Thierry (EÉLV/G.s) 14.3%
Geneviève Darrieussecq (MoDem/LREM/UDI) 13.2%

Occitanie
Carole Delga (PS/PRG/PCF) [inc.] 57.8%
Jean-Paul Garraud (RN) 23.9%
Aurélien Pradié (LR/UDI) 18.3%

Pays-de-la-Loire
Christelle Morançais (LR/UDI) [inc.] 46.3%
Matthieu Orphelin (EÉLV/LFI/PS/PRG/PCF) 34.6%
Hervé Juvin (RN) 10.8%
François de Rugy (LREM/MoDem) 8.3%

Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur
Renaud Muselier (LR/LREM/UDI/MoDem) [inc.] 57.7%
Thierry Mariani (RN) 42.3%

[Former President tack50]

Apparently, Euskal Herria Bai (Bildu) got second place in the French Basque Country with 26% of the vote (for the departmental elections). Obviously helped by abstention but still impressive.

Yeah, I wonder if they have a future in there somehow, or if indeed it is just abstention helping the normally small Basque nationalists

[Flyersfan232]

So what now for Rn?

[DL]

Can anyone try to explain what ideological difference there would be, if any, between Macron and whoever ends up being the presidential nominee of Les Republicains? I know that four years ago Macron was seen as more more socially liberal on issues like gay rights and abortion compared to Francois Fillon but are those even issues anymore in France?

[Hash]

Time for a second round of proper analysis of the results (Part 1).

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Laurent Wauquiez (LR-UDI-Libres-LC-LMR)* 55.18%
Fabienne Grébert (EELV-PS-PCF-LFI-Gs-GE-PP-ND-MdP-PRG-GRS-CÉ-E!) 33.65%
Andréa Kotarac (RN-PL) 11.17%
Abstention 66.63%

Wauquiez was unsurprisingly reelected in a landslide - winning by over 375,000 votes and 20 points. The left was able to get roughly the sum of its three lists (which merged) and not much more - Grébert won 586k votes, not a lot more than the 539k votes the three lists won separately a week ago (she won about 2.2% more in percentage terms). In sum, this is a very bad result for the left. On the other hand, the far-right - which did terribly in the first round already - fell back by over 1% and lost over 16,000 votes. Some of that likely benefited Wauquiez, who increased his vote total by nearly 210k votes. It is also quite reasonable to assume that much of the macronista vote from last week (some 168k votes) - which was eliminated from the runoff - went to Wauquiez in far greater numbers than to the left. Turnout increased only minimally (+0.5% valid votes).

As in the first round Wauquiez won by absolutely ridiculous margins in old Auvergne, particularly his native stronghold of Haute-Loire (72.7%) and conservative Cantal (72.7%). He also won 58.5% in the Puy-de-Dôme and 63.8% in the Allier - which means that the Allier, once the posterchild for rural communism, voted to the right of traditionally conservative Haute-Savoie (55.7%) and the Ain (55.5%). Wauquiez fell below 50% only in the Isère (47.5% against 40.1% for the left, which got over 62% in lefty/greenie Grenoble), and won just over 50% in the Lyon metropolis (though he lost Lyon proper, as well as suburban Villeurbanne and the old red belt suburbs of Vaulx-en-Velin and Vénissieux. I would imagine that Wauquiez's clientelist machine and network of small town mayors probably is much stronger in rural areas...

Bourgogne-Franche-Comté
Marie-Guite Dufay (PS-PCF-PRG-EELV-GE-CÉ)* 42.2%
Gilles Platret (LR-UDI-DLF-Libres-LC-LMR-MEI) 24.23%
Julien Odoul (RN) 23.78%
Denis Thuriot (LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP) 9.79%
Abstention 63.46%

After squeaking in by just a hair in 2015, this year PS regional president Marie-Guite Dufay was very comfortably reeelected. With nearly 290k votes, she won by 18% and over 123,000 votes over her closest opponent, Gilles Platret (LR). Her vote is nearly 20,000 votes higher than the combined total of the left in the first round (270k) - she merged with the EELV list (10.3%) but the LFI-et al. list (4.5%) couldn't merge. Platret won about 28,800 more votes than a week ago, while Odoul (RN moron dude) won an extra 11,700 votes. The macronista candidate, a distant fourth a week ago with 11.7%, saw himself squeezed out by the other candidates and lost about 9,200 votes. In the Nièvre, his stronghold (he is mayor of Nevers), Thuriot fell from 25.4% to 22.6% while Dufay surged from 23.2% to 40.4% in this left-wing stronghold. My overall impression here is that increased turnout (+1.5% valid votes) may have slightly benefited the right/far-right, while Dufay maximized the left's potential and squeezed some macronista votes.

Dufay won all departments. As noted, she surged ahead in the Nièvre, while in Platret's department of Saône-et-Loire she won with 39.8% against 32.1% for Platret. She also won in the Yonne, with 38.3% against 31% for Odoul, who come out in first last week.

Bretagne
Loïg Chesnais-Girard (PS-PCF-PRG-MR-CÉ-PLB!)* 29.84%
Isabelle Le Callennec (LR-LC-Libres-LMR) 21.98%
Claire Desmares-Poirrier (EELV-UDB-GE-ND-Gs-BÉ-LRDG) 20.22%
Thierry Burlot (LREM-MoDem-Agir-UDI-TdP-Volt) 14.72%
Gilles Pennelle (RN) 13.22%
Abstention 63.38%

Loïg Chesnais-Girard, PS incumbent since 2017, was reelected in a five-way runoff -- but for the first time since the 2003 changes in the electoral system for the regional elections (i.e. two-round voting with a 25% majority bonus), the winner here fell short of an absolute majority in the regional council - Chesnais-Girard won 40 out of the 83 seats, two short of an absolute majority (as I predicted could happen), meaning that he will need to make a deal with either LREM or the Greens. One would imagine that his former mentor, Jean-Yves Le Drian, will pressure him to ally with macronismo, although the more natural ally from the left's perspective would be EELV, although there is longstanding bad blood between the PS and EELV in this region. In any case, he will be reelected as any kind of opposition alliance is impossible to imagine.

Chesnais-Girard won 82,500 more votes than last week. He had merged his list with that of independent environmentalist Daniel Cueff, who won 55,500 votes, although given how many of Cueff's allies and candidates opposed this alliance as a betrayal of their values, it is quite likely that transfers were imperfect. The right (Le Callenec) won about 53,500 more votes. EELV did very well - from 14.8% and fourth last week, they went up to 20.2% and a strong third, gaining nearly 50.5k votes. It is possible she gained a lot of votes from LFI (47,000 votes last week, 5.6%, didn't merge). On the other hand, Burlot (LREM) was clearly squeezed by the others as he lost over 3,000 votes; as was the far-right, which lost nearly 6,000 votes. Turnout was up by about 23,000 more valid votes.

Notably with Burlot's poor results and his low placement on his own list in the Côtes-d'Armor (5th place), he didn't win a seat, and neither did the LREM president of the National Assembly Richard Ferrand (3rd in the Finistère list, Ferrand was seen as the main backer behind Burlot's candidacy).

Chesnais-Girard won all four departments of the region again, with numbers ranging from 28.1% in Ille-et-Vilaine to 32% in Finistère. Desmares-Poirrier won 23.6% and second place in Ille-et-Vilaine thanks to her victory in Rennes with over 36%. 

Centre-Val de Loire
François Bonneau (PS-PCF-PRG-MR)* 39.15%
Nicolas Forissier (LR-UDI-LMR) 22.61%
Aleksandar Nikolic (RN-CNIP) 22.24%
Marc Fesneau (MoDem-LREM-Agir-LC-TdP) 16%
Abstention 66.87%

PS incumbent François Bonneau won by 16.5% and a majority of over 95,300 votes. He won 22,800 more votes (or 3.5% more) than the combined total of the PS and EELV-LFI lists in the first round (which merged). In the first round, a 'DVG'/ecolo list led by a former gilet jaune guy and a regional vice-president won 4.1% (23,100 votes). The RN won exactly the same percentage share as last week, just about 1,700 extra votes, while the right gained about 23,200 votes (in the absence of vote reserves from the first round). This remains macronismo's best result, although Fesneau found himself squeezed and lost over 2,400 votes (-0.65% in vote share). Turnout increased minimally with just 7,600 more valid votes.

Bonneau won every department. In the Indre, Forissier's department, he won 36.5% against 33.6% for the LR deputy. In Fesneau's Loir-et-Cher, the macronista candidate won a distant second with 22.9% (down 1 point from last week) while Bonneau got 35.5%. Bonneau's best results were Indre-et-Loire (44%, over 51% in Tours) and Loiret (41.4%, 48% in Orléans).

Corsica
Gilles Simeoni (FaC)* 40.64%
Laurent Marcangeli (LR-UDI-CCB) 32.02%
Jean-Christophe Angelini (PNC-CL) 15.07%
Paul-Félix Benedetti (Rinnovu) 12.26%
Abstention 41.09%

Incumbent president of the executive council Gilles Simeoni was reelected with 40.6%, securing the absolute majority in the Assembly by just one seat (32 out of 63). It's a big victory for Simeoni, despite the loss of his two prominent allies from the last 6 years, Angelini and Talamoni. In the runoff, the nationalist vote - split between three lists - was 68%, up from 57.7% in the first round - so the nationalist camp, though divided, is stronger than ever (the right is the only opposition to it, the left is dead). Simeoni gained another 16,300 votes from last week, despite not having any new allies. Angelini's merger with Talamoni's separatist Corsica Libera was quite unsuccessful and the results were a major disappointment for the mayor of Porto-Vecchio - he won just 20,600 votes, significantly less than the combined total of his and Talamoni's lists last week (27,000). It is likely that many Corsica Libera voters preferred the radical, left-wing and anti-establishment Paul-Félix Benedetti, who gained an additional 5,480 votes from the first round and won a strong 12.3%.

The right's Laurent Marcangeli won 32%, up from 25% last week, gaining 10.3k more votes. It is likely some of that came from the eliminated lists - the RN (5.3k), macronismo (7.9k), perhaps even a few from EELV (5k) and the PCF (4.2k). Turnout remained higher than anywhere else, even 1% higher.

Simeoni won Haute-Corse (47%) and Marcangeli won Corse-du-Sud (37.5%), home to their respective strongholds of Bastia and Ajaccio.

Grand Est
Jean Rottner (LR-UDI-LC-MR-LMR)* 40.30%
Laurent Jacobelli (RN-CNIP) 26.30%
Éliane Romani (EELV-PS-PCF-CÉ-GE-MdP-ND) 21.22%
Brigitte Klinkert (LREM-MoDem-Agir-TdP) 12.17%
Abstention 69.76%

Jean Rottner won very easily, with a majority of 14% and over 154,600 votes on the far-right. Rottner gained nearly 10% or 109.2k votes since last week, an impressive gain. This is the only region besides unusual PACA where the RN did make notable gains from one round to another - up 5.2% and 62.8k votes - although this is due in good part to Florian Philippot having won 7% (nearly 75,000) votes in the first round and many, though evidently far from all, of his votes transferring to the far-right (I assume a few may have voted for Rottner and a bunch didn't vote, if he mobilized anti-vaxx and anti-mask loonies). The results are very bad for the left - the lack of a merger between the two lists clearly hurt, as Romani's terrible 21.2% is 2% less and over 16,000 votes fewer than the combined total of Romani and Filippetti's lists in the first round. Klinkert didn't get squeezed - despite being fourth - and even gained 18,200 votes (+1.4%). Turnout remained very low and didn't increase by much - just 26,200 more valid votes were cast than last week.

Rottner won every department. His weakest was Meurthe-et-Moselle (34.4%), where Romani was strongest (30.9%), and Haut-Rhin (35.4%), where Klinkert once again did best in her home base around Colmar (24.3% in the department). On the other hand he won over 50% in Ardennes, and over 45% in the Vosges and the Marne.

Guadeloupe
Ary Chalus (GUSR/LREM)* 72.43%
Josette Borel-Lincertin (FGPS) 27.57%
Abstention 63.12%

Incumbent president Ary Chalus (GUSR/centre close to LREM) had already won 49.3% last week so his victory was a mere formality. He won with 72.4%, with an additional 32,300 votes. His opponent, the PS president of the departmental council, Josette Borel-Lincertin, on the other was trounced and suffered a double defeat - she also lost her own seat in Les Abymes in the departmental council. She won 13.5k more votes than last week, and increased her vote share by about 10%. Her defeat is also a defeat for her ally, former regional president (and overseas minister under Flanby) Victorin Lurel, who was defeated by Chalus in 2015. It also seems as if Chalus' allies have flipped the departmental council. Turnout increased by 6%.

Guyane
Gabriel Serville (Péyi G-LFI-Gs-AGEG-PSG-GE-MDES-Walwari) 54.83%
Rodolphe Alexandre (GR/centrist)* 45.17%
Abstention 53.22%

Incumbent centrist president Rodolphe Alexandre was defeated by a united left after two terms in power. Alexandre had won 43.7% last week but the three other lists, all leftist, merged to defeat him and their votes comfortably added up. They won 25,340 votes - 6,000 more than the sum of the three lists a week ago - and defeated Alexandre by 4,466 votes. The incumbent did win 5.8k more votes than last week, as turnout increased significantly by 12%, with over 11,800 more valid votes (quite impressive as Guiana is still facing a very bad COVID surge like the rest of South America). Serville dominated in the Cayenne metropolitan area, winning 64.4% in Cayenne, 59.5% in Matoury and 61.5% in Remire-Montjoly.

[Hash]

Hauts-de-France
Xavier Bertrand (DVD/LR-UDI-LC-LMR-MR)* 52.37%
Sébastien Chenu (RN) 25.64%
Karima Delli (EELV-LFI-PS-PCF-Gs-PP-PRG-LRDG-GE) 21.98%
Abstention 66.82%

Unsurprisingly after the first round results, Xavier Bertrand was reelected in a landslide (a 26.7% majority, or 361.6k vote margin), setting himself up nicely for his presidential candidacy next year. This result was kind of baked in given the first round (particularly the RN's piss-poor performance in Panzergirl's backyard) so my conclusions from there still hold: this is a very poor result for both the RN and the left. Macronismo was eliminated entirely last week...

Bertrand gained 157,450 votes from last week, or 11%. Macronismo had won 121,400 votes or 9.1%, and its candidate, Laurent Pietraszewski had called on his voters to support Bertrand in the runoff. It is likely that the bulk of them followed that call and voted Bertrand, who also probably benefited from marginally higher turnout (about 22,000 more valid votes, turnout up from 32.8% to 33.2%) Chenu won just a tiny bit more than last week (+1.2% or 22,700 extra votes) - he likely largely gained from those who had voted for DLF's José Évrard (an ex-FN deputy for the Pas-de-Calais), who got 2% and 27,200 votes, but got very little else. Delli won 19% last week and 22% on Sunday, a minor gain of nearly 45,000 votes. LO (the Trot weirdos/benign cult) won a pretty decent 3.6% and 47,200 votes last week, and it is likely that some, though far from all, of that vote went to Delli on Sunday.

Bertrand won every department in the region, his best begain, again, Aisne (57.2%) followed by the Somme (55.1%), his weakest being the Nord with just above 50%. Chenu did best in the Pas-de-Calais with 28.4%, while Delli did best in the Nord with 25.7% -- yet, among major cities there, she only won in Lille, even losing to Bertrand in Roubaix and Villeneuve-d'Ascq.

Île-de-France
Valérie Pécresse (Libres-LR-UDI-MR)* 45.92%
Julien Bayou (EELV-PS-PCF-LFI-E!-PRG-Gs-GE-CE-MdP-ND-PP) 33.68%
Jordan Bardella (RN) 10.79%
Laurent Saint-Martin (LREM-Agir-MoDem-TdP) 9.62%
Abstention 66.74%

Pécresse was reelected, and it wasn't even close - she won by 12.2% and a majority of over 287k votes. It is a real disappointment for the left, which had seamlessly merged its three lists (which in the first round added up to 34%, vs. Pécresse's first round result of 36%). They could have hoped for a much closer result (like in 2015). In the end, however, Bayou won only 33.7% - which is slightly less than the combined total of the three left-wing lists (EELV, PS, LFI-PCF) from last week. On the other hand, Pécresse, with little obvious vote reserves from the first round, increased her support by nearly 10%. In short, this is a very bad result for the left.

Notably, IDF was the only region in metro France with PACA where turnout did increase by a sizable-ish amount - +2.4%, 169.3k more valid votes were cast. Pécresse won 289.7k more votes, while Bayou won just 44,000 more votes than the left's combined total from last week. On the other hand, both Bardella (RN) and Saint-Martin (LREM) were squeezed (as I expected) in what was essentially a right/left fight: their support fell by 2.3% and 2.2% respectively, and their lists won 32,700 and 31,100 fewer votes respectively.

It is quite likely that higher turnout and the far-right and centre being squeezed all benefited Pécresse, while being of very little benefit to the left. I doubt that Manuel Valls (lol) or Jean-Paul Huchon (Pécresse's PS predecessor as regional president, who governed between 1998 and 2015) endorsing her over the EELV-led left had that biggest impact besides perhaps the perception of left-wing divisions, but rather Pécresse's scare campaign against the 'radical left' Greens or the 'punitive environmentalism' of EELV - and her pretending to be the sole bulwark against the scary radical left - probably worked to mobilize more right-wingers and squeeze votes from both the far-right and macronismo (given that the LREM electorate of 2021 is more right-leaning than FBM's 2017 electorate).

Pécresse won all departments except the left-wing stronghold of Seine-Saint-Denis (where Bayou won 45% to her 37%). Her strongest results were the Yvelines (53.6%) and Hauts-de-Seine (52.4%). She even won in Paris, with 43.2% against 41.3% for Bayou and 10.1% for Saint-Martin.

La Réunion
Huguette Bello (PLR-LFI-PS-PCR) 51.85%
Didier Robert (OR/DVD-LR-MR)* 48.15%
Abstention 53.5%

Incumbent president Didier Robert (DVD) lost reelection to Huguette Bello, former deputy (1997-2020) and mayor of Saint-Paul (2008-2014, since 2020), who he had defeated in 2015. Robert was first elected in 2010. Bello led an alliance of three left-wing lists from the first round which had won 47% together, far ahead of the incumbent's 31% result in the first round. Turnout increased by 10%, with 63,400 more valid votes in the runoff.

In this context, Bello won 44,000 more votes than the sum of the three merged lists while Robert increased his total by nearly 70,000 votes. From the first round, a fourth left-wing list led by Bello's former ally Olivier Hoarau which fell under 5% but endorsed the united left, had won 9,800 votes. Another list, led by the left-wing mayor of La Possession Vanessa Miranville, won nearly 23,000 votes but refused to merge with anyone.

With only Guiana and La Réunion changing sides, while the rest of France stays exactly the same, there are shades of reverse 2010 here - when the left swept nearly everything, but the right flipped La Réunion and Guiana.

Martinique
Serge Letchimy (PPM-BPM-MPF/DVG) 37.72%
Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM-Palima)* 35.27%
Catherine Conconne (DVG) 14.47%
Jean-Philippe Nilor (Péyi A-RDM-LFI) 12.54%
Abstention 55.17%

Serge Letchimy, former regional president (2010-2015), defeated his successor, Alfred Marie-Jeanne (Letchimy had defeated him already in 2010, but lost in 2015). Marie-Jeanne was behind in the first round already. Turnout increased by 12.3% and there were 37,200 more valid votes. Letchimy increased his support by 6% (+19.8k), while Marie-Jeanne increased his support by 9.5% (+22.1k). Senator Catherine Conconne, a PPM dissident, increased her support by 9,000 votes, going from 10.6% to 12.5%. Jean-Philippe Nilor, a MIM dissident, only improved by 0.5%. Letchimy secured a very narrow one-seat majority.

Normandie
Hervé Morin (LC-LR-LMR-Libres)* 44.26%
Mélanie Boulanger (PS-EELV-Gs-GE-CE-PP-ND) 26.18%
Nicolas Bay (RN) 19.52%
Laurent Bonnaterre (LREM-TdP-MoDem-Agir) 10.04%
Abstention 67.09%

Hervé Morin was predictably reelected very comfortably, with an 18% majority (nearly 136,000 vote lead). With turnout essentially unchanged (even down very slightly), Morin won 7.4% more than last week, gaining 54,600 new votes from his first round result. On the other hand, it was a very bad result for the left - which had failed to merge with the PCF-LFI list led by Sébastien Jumel. Boulanger (PS) won 26.4%, nearly 2% less than the combined total of the two main left-wing lists in the first round (14,500 votes less). This is particularly obvious in the Seine-Maritime, where Jumel's base is (in his constituency around Dieppe) and where he won 16.2% last week -- in the runoff, Boulanger won 28.3%, significantly less than the combined PS-EELV+PCF-LFI total of 33.7% in the first round (and she 15,500 fewer votes than that). Constituency results are unavailable, but just a cursory glance at local results confirms that a lot of Jumel's favourite son votes did not transfer to Boulanger. In other departments, transfers on the left were better.

As in many other regions, the far-right and macronismo found themselves squeezed too - Bay (who already did poorly in the first round) won 3,100 fewer votes and the macronista candidate won 8,000 fewer votes. It's very likely that some of those lost votes flowed to Morin.

Hervé Morin won all departments, winning over 45% of the votes in the former departments of Basse-Normandie and 44.1% in his native Eure. His weakest department was Seine-Maritime, where he won 38.5%.

Nouvelle-Aquitaine
Alain Rousset (PS-PRG-PCF-PP)* 39.51%
Edwige Diaz (RN) 19.11%
Nicolas Florian (LR-LC) 14.19%
Nicolas Thierry (EELV-Gs-GE-CE) 14.19%
Geneviève Darrieussecq (MoDem-LREM-Agir-TdP-UDI-MR) 13.01%
Abstention 63.43%

Alain Rousset was reelected easily - a majority of nearly 20% - and despite being in a five-way runoff, he secured a large absolute majority (101/183 seats). Rousset improved on his first round result by over 10% - gaining 167,500 votes - an impressive increase given that EELV remained in the runoff and his only semi-obvious reserve was the LFI-NPA list which got 5.75 (84,600) and didn't merge with anyone. EELV also gained 34,200 votes, and improved from 12.5% to 14.2%. Turnout increased by less than 1%, with about 20,300 more valid votes than in the first round.

The results were mediocre for everyone else. Having been second in the first round, the far-right was not squeezed and marginally increased its support by about 17,500 votes. However, macronista candidate-cabinet minister Geneviève Darrieussecq was squeezed and saw her support decrease by 7,800 votes. The right's Nicolas Florian only increased his support from 12.5% to 14.2%, 28,500 more votes. In the first round, Eddie Puyjalon (LMR), backed by Jean Lassalle, won over 7% and 108,800 votes, doing best in Lassalle's turf in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques but also more generally in rural areas. Relatively little of those voters went to Florian. In the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, where Puyjalon had won 13.6% (largely concentrated in small villages in Lassalle's constituency), Rousset's support increased by 12.2% and Thierry (EELV)'s support increased by 3.5%, Florian's vote only rose by 2.7%. In other departments, some of Puyjalon's vote may have gone to the RN in some quantity as well.

Rousset won every department. He won over 45% in Dordogne and over 40% in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, Landes, Gironde and Haute-Vienne. He was below 35% in Charente-Maritime and the Vienne.

Occitanie
Carole Delga (PS-PCF-PRG-PP)* 57.78%
Jean-Paul Garraud (RN) 24%
Aurélien Pradié (LR-UDI-LC-LMR) 18.22%
Abstention 62.17%

Carole Delga was reelected to a second term in a landslide, winning nearly 58% of the vote and a 33.8% majority. She had already gotten just a bit less than 40% of the vote in the first round. She won 285,000 more votes than she had in the first round, while RN candidate Jean-Paul Garraud gained less than 1.5% (or 25,200 more votes) and LR candidate Aurélien Pradié increased his very weak first round showing by 6% (or 94,200) votes. Turnout remained almost the same with less than 18,000 more valid votes in the runoff.

Macronismo (8.8%, 132.4k) and two left-wing lists (EELV 8.8%, 133.3k; LFI-NPA 5.1%, 76.3k) found themselves eliminated after the first round and none of them merged with anyone, although the LREM candidate did endorse Delga. It is likely that much of the remaining left-wing vote and a good chunk of the LREM vote went to Delga, while some of the macronista vote also went to Pradié in lesser quantities. Delga substantially outperformed the sum of the left (PS, EELV, LFI) in the first round (53.5%).

Delga won every department. She got over 65% in the Ariège and Hautes-Pyrénées and over 60% in Haute-Garonne, Gers, Tarn, Aveyron and Lozère. Her weakest showing was the Pyrénées-Orientales (48.8%). Pradié, as in the first round, had his best result - by miles - in his native department of the Lot, where he is deputy, winning 41.4% against 48.6% for Delga.

Pays de la Loire
Christelle Morançais (LR-UDI)* 46.45%
Matthieu Orphelin (EELV-PS-PCF-LFI-PRG-Gs-GE) 34.86%
Hervé Juvin (RN-PL) 10.48%
François de Rugy (LREM-MoDem-MR) 8.2%
Abstention 68.34%

Similar to IDF, the Pays de la Loire were a real disappointment for the left. LR incumbent Christelle Morançais had been expected to face a close runoff, but instead she won by 11.6% and a 97,900 vote majority. After the first round, Matthieu Orphelin (EELV-LFI, 18.7%) and Guillaume Garot (PS, 16.3%) merged their lists - which together added up to 35%, while Morançais had 34% from the first round. However, while Morançais managed to increase her support by over 12 points, Orphelin wasn't even able to match the left's total. Morançais won 113,700 more votes than in the first round, while Orphelin won only 9,900 more votes than what he and Garot had won in the first round. Turnout was up by a bit less than 1% with 32,000 more valid votes in the runoff.

The two other candidates - the RN and LREM - found themselves squeezed as in other regions were they were behind in the first round. Juvin lost 2% and 13,300 votes, and de Rugy lost 3.8% and 28,000 votes. Like Pécresse, Morançais ran a scare campaign against the 'radical left' Greens allied with Mélenchon, successfully mobilizing the right, and benefited from higher turnout and both the far-right and centre being squeezed. Morançais also likely won the bulk of the DLF vote (3%, 24k votes).

Morançais won every department except the Loire-Atlantique (Nantes). The failure of the left to unite is most obvious in Mayenne, where Garot benefited from a very strong personal vote in the first round, winning 36% in a traditionally right-wing department. However, in the runoff, Orphelin won only 37.6% (together they had won 46% in the first round), losing nearly 5,000 votes from the left's result in the first round. She won over 50% in the Sarthe and Vendée, and 49% in Maine-et-Loire and 47.1% in Mayenne. Orphelin won the Loire-Atlantique with 41.9% against 40.4% for Morançais.

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur
Renaud Muselier (LR-LREM-UDI-MoDem-LC-MR-Libres-Agir)* 57.3%
Thierry Mariani (RN) 42.7%
Abstention 63.16%

Renaud Muselier was comfortably reelected against Mariani - he won with a majority of 14.6% (179,500 votes), which is actually more than what Estrosi had defeated Panzermiss by in 2015 (54.8-45.2). The two polls which had predicted a quasi 50/50 runoff were wrong. Mariani increased his support by 6% or 104,200 votes. On the other hand, Muselier won 335,500 more votes than in the first round, and his share of the vote increased from 31.9% to 57.3%, in the absence of the left which had withdrawn to block the far-right. Turnout was up by 3 points, with 112,000 more votes cast (though just 73,200 more valid votes because invalid votes did also increase by quite a bit).

Félizia, the leftist candidate forced to withdraw by Paris, had won 195,200 votes (16.9%). Jean-Marc Governatori, a perennial candidate (and weirdo) who ran as a 'centrist' environmentalist, had won 61,000 votes (5.3%). It is likely that a very good number of those votes went to Muselier in the runoff, in much better numbers than what the polls had suggested. In Marseille's 1st arrdt., where Félizia won 53.2% in the first round, Muselier won 81.4%, indicating that transfers from the left/centre were, on the whole, quite good - although blank and invalid votes made up 14% of votes cast, indicating that a fair number of (most likely) left-wingers spoiled their ballots.

As for Mariani, he likely found some of his new voters from DLF (31.2k, 2.7%) and the far-right Ligue du Sud (19.1k, 1.7%). The increase in turnout clearly came from the right and far-right, and probably benefited both candidates though a deeper analysis would be required...

As for my personal opinion here, I think Muselier would have won (narrowly) in a triangulaire -- yes, I know that Muselier's majority is less than Félizia's first round vote, but Félizia not withdrawing would probably have seen him squeezed and lose a fair amount of voters who'd want to vote strategically to defeat Mariani. Félizia was right and it's a pity he was bullied by the dumbass Parisian party elites into withdrawing to 'block the far-right', and now they'll be without representation regionally for the second time in a row. Who needs opponents when the left insists on committing seppuku in every election? But yes, I'm sure Muselier will come up with a 'mechanism' to allow the left to 'propose motions' or whatever. I also have oceanfront property in Nebraska that I can sell them.

Muselier won every department. He got over 60% in the Alpes-de-Haute-Provence and Hautes-Alpes and 59.4% in the Bouches-du-Rhône, including 63% in Marseille. He won 57.4% in the Alpes-Maritimes. The race was closer in the traditional far-right hotbeds of Vaucluse (52.6% Muselier) and Var (54% Muselier).

That's all for my regional elections analysis. I might have more to say later.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Someone really seems to reform the electoral law: having three or four lists in a second round kind of defeats the point of run-offs.

[Agafin]

It seems to me that the right is almost always the beneficiary of the "front républicain". How often does it happen for the right withdraw in order to allow the left to defeat RN? I feel like at some point leftwing voters might get fed up.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Île-de-France
Valérie Pécresse (Libres-LR-UDI-MR)* 45.92%
Julien Bayou (EELV-PS-PCF-LFI-E!-PRG-Gs-GE-CE-MdP-ND-PP) 33.68%
Jordan Bardella (RN) 10.79%
Laurent Saint-Martin (LREM-Agir-MoDem-TdP) 9.62%
Abstention 66.74%

Pécresse was reelected, and it wasn't even close - she won by 12.2% and a majority of over 287k votes. It is a real disappointment for the left, which had seamlessly merged its three lists (which in the first round added up to 34%, vs. Pécresse's first round result of 36%). They could have hoped for a much closer result (like in 2015). In the end, however, Bayou won only 33.7% - which is slightly less than the combined total of the three left-wing lists (EELV, PS, LFI-PCF) from last week. On the other hand, Pécresse, with little obvious vote reserves from the first round, increased her support by nearly 10%. In short, this is a very bad result for the left.

Notably, IDF was the only region in metro France with PACA where turnout did increase by a sizable-ish amount - +2.4%, 169.3k more valid votes were cast. Pécresse won 289.7k more votes, while Bayou won just 44,000 more votes than the left's combined total from last week. On the other hand, both Bardella (RN) and Saint-Martin (LREM) were squeezed (as I expected) in what was essentially a right/left fight: their support fell by 2.3% and 2.2% respectively, and their lists won 32,700 and 31,100 fewer votes respectively.

It is quite likely that higher turnout and the far-right and centre being squeezed all benefited Pécresse, while being of very little benefit to the left. I doubt that Manuel Valls (lol) or Jean-Paul Huchon (Pécresse's PS predecessor as regional president, who governed between 1998 and 2015) endorsing her over the EELV-led left had that biggest impact besides perhaps the perception of left-wing divisions, but rather Pécresse's scare campaign against the 'radical left' Greens or the 'punitive environmentalism' of EELV - and her pretending to be the sole bulwark against the scary radical left - probably worked to mobilize more right-wingers and squeeze votes from both the far-right and macronismo (given that the LREM electorate of 2021 is more right-leaning than FBM's 2017 electorate).

Pécresse won all departments except the left-wing stronghold of Seine-Saint-Denis (where Bayou won 45% to her 37%). Her strongest results were the Yvelines (53.6%) and Hauts-de-Seine (52.4%). She even won in Paris, with 43.2% against 41.3% for Bayou and 10.1% for Saint-Martin.

I noticed that Bardella did decently well in the first round in the bourgeois parts of Paris - over 10% in 16ème and 7ème, just under in 6, 8, 17; significantly overperforming Le Pen's 2017 results. Was there any particular reason why?

[Hash]

I noticed that Bardella did decently well in the first round in the bourgeois parts of Paris - over 10% in 16ème and 7ème, just under in 6, 8, 17; significantly overperforming Le Pen's 2017 results. Was there any particular reason why?

Almost certainly right-wing protest votes - not uncommon in these types of low-stakes election, especially in the first round, amidst low turnout. It seems that a fair number of them returned home (to the right) in the second round, which makes a lot of sense. If you believe exit polls, somewhere between 10% (Ifop) and 19% (Ipsos) of Fillon 2017 voters voted RN this year.

I noticed a similar phenomenon in Marseille, though it was much bigger there: Mariani won 30.6% in the first round in Marseille's 8th arrondissement (which includes much of the most traditional bourgeois neighbourhoods of southern Marseille), compared to 17% for Panzergirl. Given that there was a lot of right-wing discontent over Muselier's alliance with LREM, it makes sense.

[Sir John Johns]

Chesnais-Girard’s list placed first in 66 out of 95 communes with more than 5,000 registered voters, scoring its best results in Liffré (66.1%), Carhaix-Plouguer (47.1%), Quimperlé (46.5%), Rosporden (43.3%) and Saint-Avé (42.6%) while also winning Quimper (35.8%), Lannion (33.7%), Saint-Brieuc (32.7%), Lorient (32.7%), Morlaix (32.4%), Concarneau (32.1%) and Brest (31.8%, sounds actually as a very weak result in a historical PS stronghold; mayor François Cuillandre was a symbolic candidate for regional councilor, having received the last spot on Finistère’s list) while failing to break the 20% bar in only one commune with more than 5,000 registered voters: Janzé (16.9%).

Like in the first round, Le Callenec’s list swept the area of Vitré, winning 43.9% in the commune itself, while coming first in southeastern Côtes-d’Armor (35.2% in Loudéac), Léon (28.8% in Saint-Pol-de-Léon), the area of Saint-Malo (31.3% in Saint-Malo itself; 32.1% in Dinard), Vannes (25.3%) as well in seaside resorts like Perros-Guirec (25.7%), Bénodet (38.7%), Roscoff (34.9%), Sarzeau (27.1%), Larmor-Plage (29.6%) or La Trinité-sur-Mer (41.3%), Panzerdaddy’s native commune where the RN list received 12.6% of the vote. On the other side, the right-wing list placed third, behind the PS and the Green lists in numerous major cities (15.3% in Rennes; 16.5% in Brest; 17.9% in Quimper; 15.8% in Lorient; 16.4% in Saint-Brieuc; 15.0% in Lannion) while clearly under-performing in small cities with industrial history: 9.1% in Inzinzac-Lochrist; 13.7% in Rosporden; 9.6% in Lanester; 14.4% in Hennebont; 11.9% in Ploufragan. It also ended only fourth in Dinan (20.0%), behind the LREM, the PS and the Green lists.

Desmares-Poirrier (EÉLV) came ahead in Rennes with a strong 36.5%, in Saint-Jacques-de-la-Lande (35.2%), in Douarnenez (32.5%), Guichen (31.3%), Redon (29.8%) and Auray (26.4%) while placing second behind the PS list in Morlaix (29.2%), Lannion (28.5%), Betton (26.8%), Brest (25.9%), Saint-Brieuc (25.3%), Plougastel-Daoulas (24.5%), Hennebont (24.3%), Le Relecq-Kerhuon (23.9%), Bruz (23.8%), Lorient (23.6%), Plérin (22.6%), Quimper (22.0%), Plouzané (21.9%), Lanester (21.9%) and Concarneau (20.7%). For this round, Trémargat was its best commune in the whole region: 63.9% of the vote against 31.1% for Chesnais-Girard’s list and 5% for the three combined right-wing lists (1 vote each); in Langouët, it placed only second with 30.0% against 35.0% for the socialist list with which Daniel Cueff’s list had merged.

The LREM list only won a single commune with over 5,000 registered voters, the aforementioned Dinan (26.1%), while receiving results behind its regional average in most major cities (12.4% in Brest; 12.8% in Brest; 14.1% in Quimper; 13.9% in Lorient; 14.2% in Saint-Malo; 13.7% in Lannion) but Vannes (18.9%) and Saint-Brieuc (14.9%).

The RN list failed to come ahead in any commune with over 5,000 registered voters, achieving its best result in Radenac (39.6%), a 1,000-inhabitant and quite remote commune in Morbihan, and receiving more than 20% of the vote in only one commune with over 5,000 registered voters: Languidic (20.0%), a commuter town located 22 km away from Lorient. It received less than 10% of the vote in Rennes (6.6%), Lannion (9.1%), Vitré (6.3%), Cesson-Sévigné (7.4%) and Morlaix (8.1%).



The PACA map is far less fun with the Muselier list coming first in a large majority of communes. The Mariani list placed first in only 33 out of 137 communes with over 5,000 registered voters, notably in Fréjus (57.2%), Marignane (54.3%), Orange (56.7%), Les Pennes-Mirabeau (53.5%), Cavaillon (50.8%), Miramas (50.1%), Fos-sur-Mer (52.6%), Berre-l’Étang (50.5%) and Le Pontet (58.0%). In his home turf of Valréas, Mariani received 50.6% of the valid vote, winning the commune with 29 votes over Muselier’s list. The RN list lost Carpentras by a single vote while receiving not a single vote in the commune of Eourres (Hautes-Alpes) where the 32 voters who came to polls either cast a vote in favor of Muselier’s list (23 votes) or a blank/null vote (9 votes); in the first round, there were 33 voters with Félizia’s list receiving 22 votes (75.9% of valid votes, its best commune in whole PACA), the LO list and the Governatori ecologist list receiving 3 votes each, the Muselier’s list receiving a single vote and the Mariani’s one already no vote at all.

[parochial boy]

Like in the first round, Le Callenec’s list swept the area of Vitré, winning 43.9% in the commune itself, while coming first in southeastern Côtes-d’Armor (35.2% in Loudéac), Léon (28.8% in Saint-Pol-de-Léon), the area of Saint-Malo (31.3% in Saint-Malo itself; 32.1% in Dinard), Vannes (25.3%) as well in seaside resorts like Perros-Guirec (25.7%), Bénodet (38.7%), Roscoff (34.9%), Sarzeau (27.1%), Larmor-Plage (29.6%) or La Trinité-sur-Mer (41.3%)

The answer to the question that nobody asked