Japan General Discussion: You Gotta Be Kishid-ing Me

[CumbrianLefty]

Magazine 週刊現代(Shūkan Gendai) projection of an early Nov mid-term election has LDP at a massive landslide

Some of the projections are ... amazing ...

            District     PR        Total
LDP         254       73         327 !!!!
KP              8       21           29
JRP             0        8             8 !!!!
DPP            4        0             4   (rump DPP) !!!!
CDP          18      60           78   (CDP-DPP unified party)
SDP           1         1             2
JCP            0       13           13
OPPN         3         0             3

Total        289     176       465



This projection pretty much assumes a large part of the rump DPP and JRP base goes over to LDP which wipes out DPP in the PR section and wipes out JRP in district section.  Also it seems the RS vote pretty much mostly consolidates around CDP giving RS zero PR seats.

Still I find it hard to believe if the PR seat are LDP+LP+JRP = 102 vs CDP+DPP+SDP+JCP = 74 which would mean the Center-Left-JCP PR vote are still mostly intact that even if the entire JRP PR voet goes over to LDP in the district seat that the LDP can sweep so many district seats by having LDP-KP winning 262 vs 26 for the opposition.

Only way I think this could take place is that the survey assumes that Suga has great urban appeal, especially in the Greater Tokyo area, and is able to get CDP PR voters to vote LDP in the district seats sweeping out the CDP out of their core urban districts while Abe appeal to rural voters remain intact and are able to transfer those vote to LDP despite Abe not being PM anymore.

One way or another this projection is just amazing ...

254 out of 289 "constituency" seats for the LDP - have they ever managed that many before?

[CumbrianLefty]

The need for us to demand the Japanese apologize over and over again in the first place

I admit that I don't know that much about China/Korea-Japan relations, but to me as a casual observer, the way Japan acts regarding WW2 seems similar to Germany in the 50s and 60s: deny, deny, deny, like a child caught in the act that cries "it wasn't me!" and expects to be believed. In case of children, it is just lack of experience with the world; in case of a nation, it is a collective delusion.

But then, it's not like China is any better with their skeletons in the closet - neither are many "Western" countries, for that matter.

As any poll in the UK about our imperial past makes pretty clear.

[CumbrianLefty]

I actually think Suga's approach - to try and get some achievements under his belt before going to the country - could well be the correct one. Big poll leads based on not much more than a "honeymoon" for the new leader have a nasty habit of dwindling in the heat of an actual election campaign.

[CumbrianLefty]

Where do the handful of remaining elected SDP people stand?

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, given all those who support this move a rump SDP is likely to be so small as to be ultimately unviable. It would be a bit of a bathetic end for a once proud party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though the LDP/Suga numbers in his immediate honeymoon were surely unsustainable?

(ie some reversion to the norm is only to be expected)

[CumbrianLefty]

Japan to help cover IVF costs in attempt to avert demographic crisis

Band-aid at best. Japan needs to make dating, sex, and family formation desirable to young people again by addressing its beyond-toxic work culture and renewing its postwar promises of lifelong economic security for those willing to take it. But of course it's not going to.

But that is DANGEROUS MARXISM, you know.

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently Suga’s ‘Go to Travel’ policy has taken a lot of flack and now there’s talk of him being replaced by September 2021. The cycle begins again?

What is this exactly?

[CumbrianLefty]

Won't a fair few Japanese be vaccinated by then?

(having had a vaccine could be made a condition of attending the games, of course)

[CumbrianLefty]

So its all going well, then?

[CumbrianLefty]

And if you are tbf - who was the last one before Abe?