Japan General Discussion: You Gotta Be Kishid-ing Me

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

New PM, new thread. I know the old one wasn't all that long, but it had Abe's name in its title and its OP is a currently inactive poster so it can't easily be changed.

Anyway, Suga was installed as PM today. His priorities include keeping up the fight against COVID (yay), implementing deregulation to juice the economy (boo), continuing Abenomics (two cheers), consolidating regional banks (meh), and reducing mobile phone costs (yay). He's also of course a big-time nationalist and Nippon Kaigi guy so we'll unfortunately be seeing more of the Japanese culture war too.

Kyodo News has described the Suga Cabinet as a "continuity Cabinet"; astonishingly (to me), he's keeping Aso as Deputy PM and Finance Minster after eight years, plus putting Kamikawa back at Justice for a third go-round and putting Okonogi back at the National Public Safety Commission. Motegi stays on as Foreign Minister, Kajiyama stays on as Economy Minister, Hagiuda stays on at MEXT (Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, a domestic development superministry somewhat akin to the UK's old Business, Innovation, and Skills Department). Kono moves from Defense to Regulatory Reform, Kato Katsunobu replaces Suga as Chief Cabinet Secretary. There are two women in the Cabinet, Kamikawa at Justice and Hashimoto Seiko as Olympics Minister.

[jaichind]

Go2senkyo poll on party support (telephone part)

LDP    31.4 (+1.8 )
KP       4.2 (+1.1)
JRP      4.1 (-0.4)
PNHK   0.2 (-0.2)
DPP      0.8 (-0.3)
CDP     8.9 (-1.8 )
RS       0.9 (-0.2)
SDP     0.6 (-0.2)
JCP      4.9 (-0.4)

Clear rise in LDP-KP support at the expense of everyone else



PR vote (telephone)

LDP    38.2 (-8.7)
KP       6.3  (-0.7)
PNHK   0.7 (-2.8 )
JRP      9.4 (-3.1)
DPP     1.2 (-0.1)
CDP   18.5 (+3.3)
RS       1.4 (-1.3)
SDP     1.1 (-0.5)
JCP      6.0 (-1.3)

I think the Aug poll had some weird results so the diff are really bizarre but this PR poll gives one a better sense how the PR vote will go.  Of course one still have to shift some LDP PR votes over to KP PR as part of the KP voters "hiding out" as LDP voters due to social stigma.

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

In a move best described as "keep your friends close and your enemies closer" 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) was made Minister for Administrative Reform & Regulatory Reform which is actually a pretty tough job.  Suga knows if LDP does not do well in the next election the person coming after him in a leadership race would be Kono.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

In a move best described as "keep your friends close and your enemies closer" 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) was made Minister for Administrative Reform & Regulatory Reform which is actually a pretty tough job.

I had been wondering about this. It struck me at first as a pretty clear demotion from Defense, but perhaps it isn't really in a country with Article 9.

[jaichind]

In a move best described as "keep your friends close and your enemies closer" 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) was made Minister for Administrative Reform & Regulatory Reform which is actually a pretty tough job.

I had been wondering about this. It struck me at first as a pretty clear demotion from Defense, but perhaps it isn't really in a country with Article 9.

Kono used to hold that role few years back.  On the whole Minister for Administrative Reform & Regulatory Reform is more important under Suga than Abe.  Abe's main theme is "we will change the global role of Japan."  While Suga's theme is "I want to lower your cell phone bill".  Given Suga's stated focus Minister for Administrative Reform & Regulatory Reform is, according to him, important.  Regardless of importance it is clear Kono is the latent enemy of Suga and Suga want him to be in the cabinet so Kono cannout be out in the wilderness organizing against Suga.

[jaichind]

Sankei weekend magazine 夕刊フジ(Zakzak or Evening Fuji) updated projection of an October mid-term election from a couple of weeks ago has very little change.

            District     PR        Total
LDP         203       70         273
KP              9       23           32
JRP           12       22           34
PNHK          0        0             0
DPP            6        2             8   (rump DPP)
CDP          53      42           95   (CDP-DPP unified party)
RS             0         3            3
SDP           1         1             2
JCP            1       13           14
OPPN         4         0             4

Total        289     176       465

[jaichind]

毎日(Mainichi Shimbun) poll on PR vote

LDP        44
KP           4
JRP          8
PNHK       1
DPP         1
CDP       15
RS           3
JCP          5

Implies LDP-KP would cross 50% in the PR vote.  This will not last long. If Suga want to cash in he does have a window now.  On the other hand an early election could backfire if he is seen as trying to cash in in the face of risks of COVID-19.  Suga 2020 feels like Gordon Brown 2007 after the Labor Conference.   Truly a dilemma to do or not to do.

[KaiserDave]

Good bye Abe

Welcome Abe 2.0 (if I understand it right)

[jaichind]

Magazine 週刊現代(Shūkan Gendai) projection of an early Nov mid-term election has LDP at a massive landslide

Some of the projections are ... amazing ...

            District     PR        Total
LDP         254       73         327 !!!!
KP              8       21           29
JRP             0        8             8 !!!!
DPP            4        0             4   (rump DPP) !!!!
CDP          18      60           78   (CDP-DPP unified party)
SDP           1         1             2
JCP            0       13           13
OPPN         3         0             3

Total        289     176       465



This projection pretty much assumes a large part of the rump DPP and JRP base goes over to LDP which wipes out DPP in the PR section and wipes out JRP in district section.  Also it seems the RS vote pretty much mostly consolidates around CDP giving RS zero PR seats.

Still I find it hard to believe if the PR seat are LDP+LP+JRP = 102 vs CDP+DPP+SDP+JCP = 74 which would mean the Center-Left-JCP PR vote are still mostly intact that even if the entire JRP PR voet goes over to LDP in the district seat that the LDP can sweep so many district seats by having LDP-KP winning 262 vs 26 for the opposition.

Only way I think this could take place is that the survey assumes that Suga has great urban appeal, especially in the Greater Tokyo area, and is able to get CDP PR voters to vote LDP in the district seats sweeping out the CDP out of their core urban districts while Abe appeal to rural voters remain intact and are able to transfer those vote to LDP despite Abe not being PM anymore.

One way or another this projection is just amazing ...

[jaichind]

Looking at some more details for the  週刊現代(Shūkan Gendai) projection shows that their methods are very crude.

A page showing their seat-by-seat projection of Northern Japan



pretty much shows the "model" is just to assume a 10% swing toward the LDP from 2017.  No attempt to calibrate any personal vote effects per district in 2017 which might mean the swing could be different.  No attempt to look at 2017 and 2019 PR vote in said district which could give one a sense how to modulate the swings.  Just 10% swing.  And 10% swing toward LDP is not even consistent with their PR projection.  

This is a pretty crude model and almost useless.  As much as I think Nate Silver and 538 has become hackish in terms of their commentary at least their model seems to based on some robust factors that takes into account and tries to simulate a multi-factor model, Japan really needs better data journalism like 538.   If they are not able to do this then really what media outlet should do is to just ask local journalists/stringers that operate out of each district to give them who they think will win their district and aggregate them to form the projection.  That would be way more useful than something like this.

[Chickpeas]

Can we now expect a return to the revolving door of Japanese Prime Ministers similar to before 2012 where the PM seemed to change once a year?

Given Suga's age is he just seen as a placeholder PM?

[jaichind]

Can we now expect a return to the revolving door of Japanese Prime Ministers similar to before 2012 where the PM seemed to change once a year?

Given Suga's age is he just seen as a placeholder PM?

Not likely.  The only reason we had the  "revolving door of Japanese Prime Minister" is because in the 2007-2013 period except for 1 year in 2009-2010 the ruling bloc did not have a majority in the Upper House which made it impossible to pass any meaningful legislation.  This made the PM look weak and loss popularity really fast leading to the PM resigning.  Even if Suga loses some seats in the next general election it is very unlikely the LDP-KP will lose overall majority in the Upper House elections in 2022 so Suga should be around for an election cycle or two.

[CumbrianLefty]

Magazine 週刊現代(Shūkan Gendai) projection of an early Nov mid-term election has LDP at a massive landslide

Some of the projections are ... amazing ...

            District     PR        Total
LDP         254       73         327 !!!!
KP              8       21           29
JRP             0        8             8 !!!!
DPP            4        0             4   (rump DPP) !!!!
CDP          18      60           78   (CDP-DPP unified party)
SDP           1         1             2
JCP            0       13           13
OPPN         3         0             3

Total        289     176       465



This projection pretty much assumes a large part of the rump DPP and JRP base goes over to LDP which wipes out DPP in the PR section and wipes out JRP in district section.  Also it seems the RS vote pretty much mostly consolidates around CDP giving RS zero PR seats.

Still I find it hard to believe if the PR seat are LDP+LP+JRP = 102 vs CDP+DPP+SDP+JCP = 74 which would mean the Center-Left-JCP PR vote are still mostly intact that even if the entire JRP PR voet goes over to LDP in the district seat that the LDP can sweep so many district seats by having LDP-KP winning 262 vs 26 for the opposition.

Only way I think this could take place is that the survey assumes that Suga has great urban appeal, especially in the Greater Tokyo area, and is able to get CDP PR voters to vote LDP in the district seats sweeping out the CDP out of their core urban districts while Abe appeal to rural voters remain intact and are able to transfer those vote to LDP despite Abe not being PM anymore.

One way or another this projection is just amazing ...

254 out of 289 "constituency" seats for the LDP - have they ever managed that many before?

[jaichind]

254 out of 289 "constituency" seats for the LDP - have they ever managed that many before?

That would be unprecedented.  Understand that this projection will have LDP by itself a good deal above 2/3 of the seats.  The only election I think this could have happen was the 2001 Upper House Koizumi landslide where the LDP-NCP-KP alliance got 55.9% of the PR vote.  Japanese Upper House elections have a lot of multi-member seats but if these PR vote results were replicated a FPTP environment and the entire LDP-NCP-KP PR vote were transferred to the mostly LDP candidates in the FPTP seats AND the opposition vote were to be split between, say DPJ, LP and JCP candidates I can see the LDP winning a district landslide of such a scale. 

Main problem is I do not see any of these conditions actually taking place in the next general election
a) LDP-KP PR vote might be close to 50% or maybe exceed it but it will not be by much
b) CDP JCP will have alliances, especially in marginal seats. DPP and JRP will run some candidates here or there but even then there will be tactical alliances  between CDP-JCP and DPP/JRP on a seat by seat basis.

[Logical]

Based on the 2017 results, how many LDP seats would be in danger of falling to joint opposition candidates? And will the SDP ever merge or dissolve with the main centre-left opposition party? They are already irrelevant outside Okinawa and the Kyushu PR block.

[jaichind]

Based on the 2017 results, how many LDP seats would be in danger of falling to joint opposition candidates? And will the SDP ever merge or dissolve with the main centre-left opposition party? They are already irrelevant outside Okinawa and the Kyushu PR block.

On paper, I count 53 LDP held seats from 2017 that if the non-JRP opposition forces (CDP HP JCP and other opposition candidates) joined forces could flip.  In reality only about 2/3 of those targets are realistic because of fundamentals of those districts (larger number of opposition candidates also meant they were able to eat into LDP-KP PR vote which cannot be expected to transferred to a common opposition candidate.)  Also note that 5 opposition winners of 2017 have since defected to the LDP and while in some of those seats that have caused LDP to split between the defector and the 2017 LDP candidate overall all 5 seats are expected to flip to LDP.  So even in a very favorable election for the opposition they can only gain 30-35 district seats at most and will lose 5 to LDP.  Given Suga's current popularity even that is not realistic if the election is held soon.  So at beast for the opposition the LDP-KP can be expected to lose a dozen or two seats  and there is a realistic chance LDP-KP may gain seats.  A key X factor is the JRP vote.  With Suga having greater urban appeal it is totally possible he can pull in some urban JRP voters to further  augment the LDP lead.

[jaichind]

So in the end rump DPP will have 13 MP (6 Lower House and 7 Upper House).  DPP at this stage is really made up of
a) DPP leader 玉木雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō) and friends
b) enemies of CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) like fromer DP leader 前原誠司(Maehara Seiji)
c) various politicians associated with the factions of Rengo that choose not to work with JCP mostly centered in the old rust belt 愛知(Aichi) and 静岡(Shizuoka)

What CDP get out of this is most of the old DPJ/DP funds and most of the ground troops that that they clearly lacked back in 2017 and 2019.

DPP most likely will have tactical alliances with CDP and JRP to try to survive and carve out a niche in the political market.
 

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54216632

Japan's former prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has visited a controversial war memorial just days after stepping down.

Mr Abe posted a picture of himself at the Yasukuni Shrine, telling his followers he had gone there to inform the spirits of his resignation.

He largely stayed away from the shrine, which honours Japan's war dead, but also convicted war criminals, during his time as prime minister.

Mr Abe's 2013 visit angered China and South Korea.

Japan's occupation of its two neighbours ended with its defeat in 1945 and the conclusion of the Second World War.

I guess when you aren't Prime Minister you don't care about insulting other countries, do you?

[Cassius]

Well he had Taro Aso in his cabinet for eight consecutive years so that was already an open question before he stepped down.

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54216632

Japan's former prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has visited a controversial war memorial just days after stepping down.

Mr Abe posted a picture of himself at the Yasukuni Shrine, telling his followers he had gone there to inform the spirits of his resignation.

He largely stayed away from the shrine, which honours Japan's war dead, but also convicted war criminals, during his time as prime minister.

Mr Abe's 2013 visit angered China and South Korea.

Japan's occupation of its two neighbours ended with its defeat in 1945 and the conclusion of the Second World War.

I guess when you aren't Prime Minister you don't care about insulting other countries, do you?

I mostly break with my Chinese compatriots on this.  I see nothing wrong with Japanese politicians visiting the  Yasukuni Shrine.  It is a  Shrine that honors those that fought for Japan and died in its defense.  We Chinese have plenty of shrines/temples like this and I have visited many of such Chinese shrines/temples with a great sense of gratitude and respect.  Sure, some of those honored Yasukuni Shrine might have been considered war criminals by some but that is like saying for the USA to have a positive relationship with Vietnam the US President cannot visit the Vietnam Memorial.

The core issue here is not Japan but an issue of a problem of low self-esteem when it comes to WWII for many Chinese.  We know we we really did not defeat Japan and the Japanese know it too.  The need for us to demand the Japanese apologize over and over again stems from our desire for us Chinese to hear from the Japanese "we lost to you fair and square".  And the fact is we will never hear that because it is not true.  It was the USA that defeat Japan.  We Chinese just went along for the ride.  All we Chinese accomplished in WWII was to avoid defeat but victory was not ours.

We Chinese have to move on from this absurd issue and deal with Japanese as a neighbor that shares a common cultural heritage with us and should in normal circumstances should be a friendly power.

[Estrella]

The need for us to demand the Japanese apologize over and over again in the first place

I admit that I don't know that much about China/Korea-Japan relations, but to me as a casual observer, the way Japan acts regarding WW2 seems similar to Germany in the 50s and 60s: deny, deny, deny, like a child caught in the act that cries "it wasn't me!" and expects to be believed. In case of children, it is just lack of experience with the world; in case of a nation, it is a collective delusion.

But then, it's not like China is any better with their skeletons in the closet - neither are many "Western" countries, for that matter.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll which is massive and for now seems like an outlier

Suga Cabinet approval/disapproval 74/14

Party support

LDP    47 (+6)
KP       3
JRP      2
DPP     1
CDP     4
SDP     0 (-1)
JCP      2 (+1)

PR vote is more amazing

LDP     55
KP         6
JRP       6
DPP      1
CDP      8
RS        1
SDP      0
JCP       3

Most other polls clearly show a very popular Suga cabinet and massive leads for LDP but this one seems the most extreme, especially with that 55 for the LDP PR vote.

Most likely honeymoon effect which will wear off soon enough as soon as Suga have to start making real decisions

[CumbrianLefty]

The need for us to demand the Japanese apologize over and over again in the first place

I admit that I don't know that much about China/Korea-Japan relations, but to me as a casual observer, the way Japan acts regarding WW2 seems similar to Germany in the 50s and 60s: deny, deny, deny, like a child caught in the act that cries "it wasn't me!" and expects to be believed. In case of children, it is just lack of experience with the world; in case of a nation, it is a collective delusion.

But then, it's not like China is any better with their skeletons in the closet - neither are many "Western" countries, for that matter.

As any poll in the UK about our imperial past makes pretty clear.

[jaichind]

Party support trends

LDP party support


Other party support


It seems the LDP surge after Abe resigned has mostly been at the expense of JRP.  This makes sense as the JRP surge since the Spring due to the COVID-19 crisis has been at the expense of LDP.  This support is now flowing back.

CDP did not really get a bump from the CDP-DPP merger.  This is very different from 2003 when LP merged into DPJ which led to a huge jump in support for DPJ and started the 2003-2012 era when the DPJ was very competitive with LDP-KP.

Main depression lesson for the Center-Left Opposition is that any LDP stumble will help JRP and not CDP.  All CDP could do next election cycle or two is to prevent a LDP-KP 2/3 majority but dislodging LDP-KP will be very tall order.