Japan General Discussion: You Gotta Be Kishid-ing Me

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Apparently Suga’s ‘Go to Travel’ policy has taken a lot of flack and now there’s talk of him being replaced by September 2021. The cycle begins again?

What is this exactly?

Subsidizing intra-Japan travel and vacations as COVID recovery stimulus, basically. Cassius or jaichind might know more of the details.

[Cassius]

Apparently Suga’s ‘Go to Travel’ policy has taken a lot of flack and now there’s talk of him being replaced by September 2021. The cycle begins again?

What is this exactly?

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2020/10/18/travel/breaking-down-go-to-travel-campaign/

Salient points in this article. Also noticed that the Japanese government seem to have implemented a ‘go to eat’ scheme, which sounds rather like our ‘eat out to help out’.

[jaichind]

The Chinese language media rumor mill are also saying that Abe's medical condition and recovery is going much better than expected and that Abe is most likely kicking himself for stepping down a few months ago. With Suga waffling on the Abe agenda and are adding more scandals on his own like

(Steak dinner lands Japan’s Suga in hot water for flouting virus rules) (perhaps Suga is a honorary member of the USA Democratic party since this just mimics several USA Democratic mayors lockdown hypocrisy issues)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-coronavirus-suga-dinner-masks/2020/12/16/65461082-3f5e-11eb-b58b-1623f6267960_story.html

and not being able to come off as a strong leader there are talks that Abe and his gang might start getting more involved to "handle the situation for Suga"

If true then this merely means that Suga will be more frozen from making any decisions since he now has to always check what Abe and gang are up to.  Suga not having his own faction which helped him so much in the LDP Prez election a few months back now is going to hurt him since he has no one to fall back on within the LDP to speak out for him as Abe and gang try to capture from Suga.

So Suga went from being the puppet master of Abe to being the puppet of the new puppet master Abe if these rumors are true.

[jaichind]

TV Asahi reports that  Tokyo prosecutors questioned former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Thursday or earlier over the expenses of dinner parties his political group held for his supporters.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/12/e2fac3eac625-ex-pm-abe-says-to-address-dinner-function-allegations-in-parliament.html

Kyodo says that LDP might convene a special session of the Diet for Abe to address the Diet to give his side of the story.

[Derpist]

Japan to help cover IVF costs in attempt to avert demographic crisis

Band-aid at best. Japan needs to make dating, sex, and family formation desirable to young people again by addressing its beyond-toxic work culture and renewing its postwar promises of lifelong economic security for those willing to take it. But of course it's not going to.

But that is DANGEROUS MARXISM, you know.

It could also accept more than zero young immigrants, but that's probably cultural Marxism so what do I know ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It already does that, but Western liberals are always going to assume anyone Asian is some raging xenophobe racist.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Japan to help cover IVF costs in attempt to avert demographic crisis

Band-aid at best. Japan needs to make dating, sex, and family formation desirable to young people again by addressing its beyond-toxic work culture and renewing its postwar promises of lifelong economic security for those willing to take it. But of course it's not going to.

But that is DANGEROUS MARXISM, you know.

It could also accept more than zero young immigrants, but that's probably cultural Marxism so what do I know ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It already does that, but Western liberals are always going to assume anyone Asian is some raging xenophobe racist.

Japan does have way more immigrants actually living there than most people in the West assume it does (some of the best Indian restaurants I've ever been to are in Japan!), but they're more or less permanently locked out of citizenship, which affects their ability to contribute in the full sense to Japanese society. I'm aware that you probably think this is a succdem multi-culti globecuck take but whatever, it's my position on this issue.

[Derpist]

Japan to help cover IVF costs in attempt to avert demographic crisis

Band-aid at best. Japan needs to make dating, sex, and family formation desirable to young people again by addressing its beyond-toxic work culture and renewing its postwar promises of lifelong economic security for those willing to take it. But of course it's not going to.

But that is DANGEROUS MARXISM, you know.

It could also accept more than zero young immigrants, but that's probably cultural Marxism so what do I know ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It already does that, but Western liberals are always going to assume anyone Asian is some raging xenophobe racist.

Japan does have way more immigrants actually living there than most people in the West assume it does (some of the best Indian restaurants I've ever been to are in Japan!), but they're more or less permanently locked out of citizenship, which affects their ability to contribute in the full sense to Japanese society. I'm aware that you probably think this is a succdem multi-culti globecuck take but whatever, it's my position on this issue.

I assume you're talking about people on the relatively recent guest-worker thing (because there's nothing that inherently locks out other immigrants from naturalization) - and that's so new, it's hard to judge at all what the long-term status of people will be.

But yes, social democrats are "cucky", because they do tend to just surrender to neoliberals whenever they can find them - as has happened in almost every Western country.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Japan to help cover IVF costs in attempt to avert demographic crisis

Band-aid at best. Japan needs to make dating, sex, and family formation desirable to young people again by addressing its beyond-toxic work culture and renewing its postwar promises of lifelong economic security for those willing to take it. But of course it's not going to.

But that is DANGEROUS MARXISM, you know.

It could also accept more than zero young immigrants, but that's probably cultural Marxism so what do I know ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It already does that, but Western liberals are always going to assume anyone Asian is some raging xenophobe racist.

Japan does have way more immigrants actually living there than most people in the West assume it does (some of the best Indian restaurants I've ever been to are in Japan!), but they're more or less permanently locked out of citizenship, which affects their ability to contribute in the full sense to Japanese society. I'm aware that you probably think this is a succdem multi-culti globecuck take but whatever, it's my position on this issue.

I assume you're talking about people on the relatively recent guest-worker thing (because there's nothing that inherently locks out other immigrants from naturalization) - and that's so new, it's hard to judge at all what the long-term status of people will be.

Huh, for some reason I thought it had been around for longer.

Regardless, the last time I checked, most old-guard immigrants to Japan still in practice do not have citizenship, even if it's in principle possible for them to attain it.

But yes, social democrats are "cucky", because they do tend to just surrender to neoliberals whenever they can find them - as has happened in almost every Western country.

Yes, which is why I don't actually consider myself a social democrat.

[Derpist]

Regardless, the last time I checked, most old-guard immigrants to Japan still in practice do not have citizenship, even if it's in principle possible for them to attain it.

That's not because they're legally prohibited. And that's only really true of Westerners. The majority of Zainichi Koreans not affiliated with the DPRK have naturalized over time. At the end of the day, even the most progressive Western person is going to fundamentally see themselves as Western first and foremost and is loath to give up their American/Canadian/British/etc. citizenship for a non-Western nation.

[jaichind]

2 media New Year projections on Lower House elections

週刊ポスト (News PostSeven) Projection has LDP losing a bunch of seats to a bare majority



         District     PR      Total
LDP      176       66        242
KP           7        21         28
JRP          8        13         21
DPP         5         5          10
CDP       83        54       137
RS           0          1          1
SDP         1          0          1
JCP          1        16        17
OPPN       8          0         8
--------------------------------------
           289       176     465

KP at 7 district seats means they lose one of their district seats most likely either in 北海道(Hokkaido) or 神奈川(Kanagawa)


While 毎日(Mainichi) has much more limited LDP losses


        District     PR      Total
LDP      203       69        272
KP           8        23         31
JRP          6       14          20
DPP         5         7          12
CDP       58       49        107
RS           0         1           1
SDP         1         0           1
JCP          1       13         14
OPPN       7         0          7
--------------------------------------
           289       176     465

It is interesting that both projections has RS losing a lot of its novelty shine from the 2019 Upper House elections with most of their vote flowing back to CDP.  I suspect in a real snap election, it it was possible, the result will be somewhere in between these two projections.

It is clear that that LDP will lose seats and LDP-KP will lose their 2/3 majority.  Question now is can LDP-KP + JRP get a 2/3 majority in case of another push for Constitutional change.

[NewYorkExpress]

A court in Seoul has ordered Japan to pay reparations of 100 million won each to the families of twelve "comfort women" from Japan's occupation of Korea.

Wartime sex slaves from South Korea, euphemistically known as "comfort women," won their first legal victory against the Japanese government in a landmark ruling handed down Friday in Seoul. The Seoul Central District Court ordered Japan's government to pay reparations of 100 million won ($91,300) each to the families of 12 women who were forced to work as sex slaves for the Japanese army during Japan's colonization of Korea.


The court called Japan forcing the women — only five of whom are still alive — to be sex slaves "a crime against humanity." It said the women were forced into the servitude when Japan "illegally occupied" the Korean Peninsula between 1910 and 1945, arguing that the illegality of that occupation means Japan's contemporary sovereign immunity can't shield it from lawsuits.

[jaichind]

www.bloombergquint.com/amp/politics/japan-virus-surge-makes-suga-more-look-like-short-term-premier

Bloomberg article saying that with Suga ratings melting down the LDP might turn back to Abe as leader later this year. 

[PSOL]

Would the shuffle not cause anger among the pro-Suga LDP? Did Abe heal from his ailments so fast?

[jaichind]

Would the shuffle not cause anger among the pro-Suga LDP? Did Abe heal from his ailments so fast?

It seems that Abe's medical condition and recovery took a turn for the better since he stepped down so there were rumors that he was looking to return from the backbenches anyway.  Also there are no pro-Suga MPs that are not pro-Abe MPs.

If it ends up being Abe again in the Sept 2021 LDP Prez race then this entire episode could have been a deep game 3-D chess that Abe was playing.  In Aug 2020 Abe was facing

a) COVID-19 resurgence and likely cancelation of Tokyo Olympics
b) Public and LDP resistance to him running for a 4th term as LDP Prez in Sept 2021.

So he steps down to have Suga take over who will take the hits for COVID-19 resurgence and cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics.  Then Abe can come back in Sept 2021 as LDP Prez and lead the LDP and Japan PM for another 6 years.

At this stage it still seems far screeched.  I still say if Suga is forced to step down in Sept 2021 it is more likely someone like 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) will take over than Abe.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are the Tokyo Olympics looking likely to be cancelled?

[jaichind]

Are the Tokyo Olympics looking likely to be cancelled?

I do not see any way around it.  No one is willing to say it because no one wants the blame for acknowledging that throwing billons down the toilet.  I personally have always been for herd immunity to deal with COVID-19 so I for one will for having the Olympics go on.  But given the risk profile of the Japanese as a whole do see no other way out.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are the Tokyo Olympics looking likely to be cancelled?

I do not see any way around it.  No one is willing to say it because no one wants the blame for acknowledging that throwing billons down the toilet.  I personally have always been for herd immunity to deal with COVID-19 so I for one will for having the Olympics go on.  But given the risk profile of the Japanese as a whole do see no other way out.

Wouldn't politicians and the IOC sooner delay it to 2022 or even 2023 than cancel the games, though?

[Oryxslayer]

I mean with the vaccine in circulation one could easily hold the games as long as the players and staff are kept under lock and key in Olympic village. The issue for Japan is that no tickets could be sold and all the stadiums built will be empty or at near empty capacity.

[CumbrianLefty]

Won't a fair few Japanese be vaccinated by then?

(having had a vaccine could be made a condition of attending the games, of course)

[jaichind]

Won't a fair few Japanese be vaccinated by then?

(having had a vaccine could be made a condition of attending the games, of course)

But if Olympics means lots of people from outside of Japan traveling to Japan and then a new strain of the virus that is not covered but the version of the vaccine used in Japan ...

Like I said, I prefer if that were to take place so everyone that is going to die from old or new strain just dies as part of herd immunity and we can move on.  But that is not what Japanese population is willing to accept

[jaichind]

PR voting intentions moving away from LDP and JRP and toward JRP.

Deep Green - LDP
Blue - CDP
Light Green - JRP
Orange - KP
Red - JCP
Purple - RS



These numbers seems to indicate that LDP-KP most likely will get around 45%-46% of the PR vote,
 My rule of thumb is to take PR votes of LDP and KP, add them and then add 3%-4% and that will be the LDP-KP PR vote as many KP PR voters "hide out" as LDP PR voters so it is best to add them.  KP will always get around 13% so that leaves LDP at 32%-33%.

This is around what they got in 2017 but a big drop from around 50%-51% at the peak of the Suga honeymoon.  With the opposition more united around CDP this means LDP-KP will lose seats for sure relative to 2017. Main problem for Suga/LDP is that this number will now drop more from here unless Suga can shift the narrative.

[jaichind]

Chinese media sources with stringers in Japan report that "LDP insiders" are getting more negative on the chances of the Olympics being held.  These "LDP insiders" say that Suga will make a final call in March with hope of a Hail Mary type turnaround between now and March.

[jaichind]

Latest Asahi poll has 35% for canceling the Tokyo Olympics, 51% for another delay and 11% for holding them in the Summer of 2021.

[jaichind]

Latest NHK poll on Olympics




Cancel Olympics    38%
Limited audience   29%
No audience          23%

There seems to be a majority for holding them if the audience is limited or gone completely

[NewYorkExpress]

The LDP is allowing female lawmakers at key meeting...only if they don't talk.

After a sexism row sparked by Tokyo Olympics chief’s saying women talked too much at meetings, Japan’s ruling party wants women at key meetings — but only if they don’t talk.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has proposed a new plan that allows five female lawmakers to join the party’s key meetings as observers.

Toshihiro Nikai, the party’s 82-year-old secretary general, said on Tuesday that he heard criticism that the party’s board is male-dominated, but added that the board members are elected.

But it is important for the party’s female members to “look” at the party’s decision-making process, he said.

“It is important to fully understand what kind of discussions are happening. Take a look, is what it is about,” Nikai said at a news conference late on Tuesday.

Those female observers can’t speak during the meetings, but can submit opinions separately to the secretariat office, the daily newspaper Nikkei reported.

Yoshiro Mori, the head of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic organizing committee, resigned last week after derogatory comments about women speaking too much at meetings and making them too long triggered backlash at home and abroad.

The 83-year-old former prime minister’s remarks are one of the examples that show how deep rooted sexism is in Japanese society.