ABC/Washington Post: Minnesota - Biden +16 | Wisconsin - Biden +6

[DaleCooper]

While the Wisconsin margin isn't amazing... I'll take any WI poll with Biden at 52.

The margin isn't amazing, but that looks a lot like how I expect the final result to be. It isn't a 45-39 poll. Biden at 52% is fantastic!

[DaleCooper]

While the Wisconsin margin isn't amazing... I'll take any WI poll with Biden at 52.

The margin isn't amazing, but that looks a lot like how I expect the final result to be. It isn't a 45-39 poll. Biden at 52% is fantastic!

If someone had told me back in January that somehow Biden +6 in Wisconsin would be considered on the lower side for his polling, I would not have believed it.

Yeah at the beginning of the year Wisconsin was really a pure toss-up. Now Trump is nowhere close.

Wisconsin not only being likely D, but about as likely D as the rest of the Rust Belt states has got to be one of the biggest polling-related surprises of this election.

[DaleCooper]

I doubt this ends up being the final in MN, Walz got Greater MN within 7 and won by 12, I think Biden +10 in MN and nationally +7 is what happens

I'm really starting to wonder whether or not Trump's EC advantage has shrunk in 2020. Hear me out, obviously it still exists, but we're seeing polling out of Wisconsin and Michigan where they are polling on-par with or better than Biden nationwide more often than not. Obviously tipping point states like PA and especially FL are to the right of the nation, but a good amount of damn-near must-have states for Trump are polling in alignment with the popular vote or even further towards Biden.

[DaleCooper]

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.

It’s one thing to point out a 14-point swing is unlikely, it’s another to assume that there’s any significant number of people who saw what happened with George Floyd and are more favorable to Trump because they think Frey and Walz are “appeasers.”

Yeah, polling has consistently shown that Trump is viewed as making these riots worse while Biden is viewed has being capable of bringing the country together.