VA-VCU: Warner +17
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October 20, 2021, 06:12:48 AM

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  VA-VCU: Warner +17
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Author Topic: VA-VCU: Warner +17  (Read 1127 times)
VAR
VARepublican
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« on: September 15, 2020, 02:23:38 PM »

Aug 28-Sep 7, 693 LV, MoE: 6.2%

Warner (D-inc.) 55%
Gade (R) 38%

https://oppo.vcu.edu/media/oppo/September2020Release1final.pdf
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2020, 02:25:55 PM »

Safe Democratic, nothing to see here.

These numbers are also excellent news for Abigail Spanberger.
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○∙◄☻•tπ[╪AV┼cVÍ└
jfern
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2020, 02:26:24 PM »

It's too bad he's not getting another warnering.
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Canis
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2020, 02:32:57 PM »

Wow VA is gone for the Republicans this year completely out of reach
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2020, 02:50:23 PM »

Warner is such a daddy
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2020, 05:32:45 PM »

Don't know/refused 6%
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FalterinArc
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2020, 05:34:29 PM »

Calling it now, Amherst County comes back to Warner
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2020, 05:42:08 PM »

Safe D, and Warner is leading by Kaine's 2018 margin, which is what I would expect.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2020, 02:00:00 AM »

Wow VA is gone for the Republicans this year completely out of reach

"this year"

Youíre about 10 years late to the party.
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jimmie
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2020, 02:22:14 AM »

Wow VA is gone for the Republicans this year completely out of reach

"this year"

Youíre about 10 years late to the party.

I am a little worried that Hogan will move to Virginia and run against Kaine in 2024 and be able to win.

And I am also worried that suburban Richmond or Virginia Beach GOP moderates will  be able to defeat Justin Fairfax if he is the 2021 gubernatorial nominee.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2020, 02:59:05 AM »

I am a little worried that Hogan will move to Virginia and run against Kaine in 2024 and be able to win.

Thereís an outside shot of a Hogan win in MD-SEN in 2022 if (big if) he remains extremely popular (heíll need his approval ratings to stay above 60% and maybe even 65%) and 2022 is a massive GOP wave because the Democratic trifecta completely overplayed its hand, but even then it would be an uphill battle. He would absolutely not win a Senate race in VA, however (he wouldnít make it through the R primary + the carpetbagger ads would write themselves [I realize itís VA, but still, it wouldnít help] + VA/MD are very different states politically anyway).

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And I am also worried that suburban Richmond or Virginia Beach GOP moderates will  be able to defeat Justin Fairfax if he is the 2021 gubernatorial nominee.

Those areas are arguably even less "elastic" than many parts of Northern Virginia, so no, not going to happen. I donít expect Fairfax to win the Democratic nomination, but even if he somehow does, thereís no chance he loses statewide, even if the margin might be a little underwhelming (6-7 points or so). The path "just isnít there" for Republicans in VA anymore, no matter how fiercely some insist that it is.

There seems to be this misconception that VA is a GA-type situation where itís only one giant metropolitan area which has caused the Republican Party's collapse while the rest of the state has gotten more R or stayed as R as before but thatís not actually the case, especially when you look at the leftward shift in other urban areas (especially Hampton Roads and Richmond) since the Bush years ó this is actually an underrated reason why Republicans have sometimes gotten close but not across the finish line during the Obama years.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2020, 07:07:32 PM »

I feel like we're witnessing the making of a new NY with VA. Absent one big metropolitan area (NYC, NOVA) these states are pretty swingy and definitely achievable for the GOP, but those cities just make them too blue and not worth the resources. Plus, the DC burbs are only growing, and that's likely to accelerate if DC gets statehood in a Biden administration.

Anyways. Safe D.
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ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2020, 08:18:03 PM »

I wonder how Ed Gillespie would be doing now if he won in 2014.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2020, 08:31:27 PM »

I wonder how Ed Gillespie would be doing now if he won in 2014.

Exactly the same as Gade
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TheTide
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2020, 05:10:24 AM »

Solid numbers for the former future president.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2020, 05:21:42 AM »

Calling it now, Amherst County comes back to Warner

Lol, no
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2020, 03:56:33 PM »

New Poll: Virginia Senator by Virginia Commonwealth University on 2020-09-07

Summary: D: 55%, R: 38%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Chips
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« Reply #17 on: October 04, 2020, 02:57:42 PM »

I wonder how Ed Gillespie would be doing now if he won in 2014.
He would be doing about the same as Cory Gardner. He would have a slim chance of winning re-election, but he would likely go down to his Democratic challenger.
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Water Hazard
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« Reply #18 on: October 04, 2020, 06:02:39 PM »

Funny how between that race and AL 2017, the GOP could easily have 55 seats right now and yet have basically the same chance of holding the Senate this year.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2020, 09:12:33 PM »

Funny how between that race and AL 2017, the GOP could easily have 55 seats right now and yet have basically the same chance of holding the Senate this year.

Imagine if Scott Brown or Terri Lynn Land won.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #20 on: October 04, 2020, 11:58:37 PM »

I wonder how Ed Gillespie would be doing now if he won in 2014.

Enron Ed.
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