Why is the race so close?

[Indy Texas]

Hoover got almost 40% of the vote in ‘32

That's so weird to think about. This was still while the South was voting 75% or higher for Democrats nationally, so Hoover was able to reach 40% with basically no votes from a populous region of the country while in the middle of the worst economic depression in the country's history.

Yep. In all honesty, even though Bush sported ratings in the 20’s in ‘08, I still think he would have breached 40% of the vote had he been able to run.

I'm not disturbed by Trump's head-to-head poll numbers because that is simply what happens for major party candidates in a presidential election.

People can cite 1936/1964/1972 but that was an era when American politics was unusually depolarized. Our current dynamic where people just reflexively vote for one party or the other based on their personal characteristics/background is a reversion to the mean of how politics worked for most of American history.

There will never be another landslide election where a candidate gets 60%+ of the national popular vote.

What does disturb me is Trump's consistent approval ratings. You can disapprove of someone but still vote for them because you disapprove of the other guy even more.

But the idea that Trump is basically guaranteed the approval of no more and no less than 40-45% of Americans no matter how good or bad things go is really damning of how broken our body politic is right now.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Why do people keep saying the race is close when it’s not?

1. D e m s i n d i s a r r a y

2. H o r s e r a c e

3. 2016 PTSD

[roxas11]

Despite everything that’s happened(Covid-19, Recession, George Floyd, “Dead Soldiers are suckers” “I didn’t wanna cause a panic”, nearly 200,000 Americans dead) the race is 5+ Biden or 2+ Biden.

If you had told me years ago that a race where the Dem was leading in ever swing state including AZ would be called close.......... I would have called you crazy

yet here we are

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Face fact its gonna be a 334 EC map with a tied Senate with 2 GA runoffs going to special session Its not gonna be filibuster proof majority Senate. SC, MT, KS, IA, TX and KY are done, they will go R

[Arkansas Yankee]

Face fact its gonna be a 334 EC map with a tied Senate with 2 GA runoffs going to special session Its not gonna be filibuster proof majority Senate. SC, MT, KS, IA, TX and KY are done, they will go R

And Manchin and one or two other Democrats dill vote to keep filibuster.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Trump has done so much good. I will list later.   I believe I will probably die if Trump loses.  Not because he Is so good, but he stands against so much bad. You Biden supporters are blind. So sad. I still pray the nation will come to it senses.

THE WORST SHOOTING TWO POLICE OFFICERS SITTING IN PATROL CAR.

[hyouzel the predictor]

Trump has done so much good. I will list later.   I believe I will probably die if Trump loses.  Not because he Is so good, but he stands against so much bad. You Biden supporters are blind. So sad. I still pray the nation will come to it senses.

THE WORST SHOOTING TWO POLICE OFFICERS SITTING IN PATROL CAR.

Says the guy who literally posted "You seem angry. Are you black?"

Open racism loses all credibility in everyone's eyes. This forum is for peaceful political and election discussion, strictly about numbers and statistics, not about spewing opinions. Take your hate back to Facebook, we don't want you here.

[Calthrina950]

Hoover got almost 40% of the vote in ‘32

That's so weird to think about. This was still while the South was voting 75% or higher for Democrats nationally, so Hoover was able to reach 40% with basically no votes from a populous region of the country while in the middle of the worst economic depression in the country's history.

Yep. In all honesty, even though Bush sported ratings in the 20’s in ‘08, I still think he would have breached 40% of the vote had he been able to run.

I'm not disturbed by Trump's head-to-head poll numbers because that is simply what happens for major party candidates in a presidential election.

People can cite 1936/1964/1972 but that was an era when American politics was unusually depolarized. Our current dynamic where people just reflexively vote for one party or the other based on their personal characteristics/background is a reversion to the mean of how politics worked for most of American history.

There will never be another landslide election where a candidate gets 60%+ of the national popular vote.

What does disturb me is Trump's consistent approval ratings. You can disapprove of someone but still vote for them because you disapprove of the other guy even more.

But the idea that Trump is basically guaranteed the approval of no more and no less than 40-45% of Americans no matter how good or bad things go is really damning of how broken our body politic is right now.

Ever since 2000 (and arguably since 1992), we've been in a sort of Second "Gilded Age", similar to the period between 1876 and 1896. During that time, the country saw nothing but close presidential elections, with two highly energized and partisan political bases "going at" each other for the opportunity to take direction of the country's fortunes. But I'm hopeful that this age of polarization isn't going to last forever, and I pray that your prediction that we'll never see a >60% landslide again doesn't bear fruit. If we don't, then that will be a truly sad indictment on our country, and perhaps a sign of its decline.

[Suburbia]

Polarization

When you overplay your hand with race issues and turn apolitical people to people who are skeptical about race relations with overgeneralizations, you will see a close race.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Polarization

When you overplay your hand with race issues and turn apolitical people to people who are skeptical about race relations with overgeneralizations, you will see a close race.

Shut up.

[Suburbia]

Polarization

When you overplay your hand with race issues and turn apolitical people to people who are skeptical about race relations with overgeneralizations, you will see a close race.

Shut up.

It's the truth.

Most Americans don't like when they see police ambushed in their cars.

[Crumpets]

Polarization

When you overplay your hand with race issues and turn apolitical people to people who are skeptical about race relations with overgeneralizations, you will see a close race.

Out of curiosity, should Biden win in November despite significant support for Trump from law enforcement, their families, police unions, etc., what do you think the path forward would be for Republicans on this particular issue?

[Suburbia]

Polarization

When you overplay your hand with race issues and turn apolitical people to people who are skeptical about race relations with overgeneralizations, you will see a close race.

Out of curiosity, should Biden win in November despite significant support for Trump from law enforcement, their families, police unions, etc., what do you think the path forward would be for Republicans on this particular issue?

They'll follow the LIGOP's model, which the LIGOP have been doing since 1945, run ads on MS-13, law and order, and coordinate with PBAs and other police unions to attack Democratic politicians or libertarians who push for police accountability.

They'll run someone like a Cotton or a DeSantis who is a law and order type.

The Democrats have to bridge gaps with police, especially white cops, because most of the white cops in the NYPD live on Long Island and are supporting Trump just like the PBA boss.

The NY Times did a story yesterday on this.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/nyregion/ny-police-unions-racial-disparity-trump.html

[republican1993]

polarized environment - from a republican perspective i don't see it as close as maybe others see it? the polls havent been telling me it's a nail bitter..

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Abortion.  The abortion issue pretty much single-handedly guarantees that we won't see a true landslide anytime soon.

[Suburbia]

Abortion.  The abortion issue pretty much single-handedly guarantees that we won't see a true landslide anytime soon.

Why are people so obsessed with abortion, however?

[Sumner 1868]

Ever since 2000 (and arguably since 1992), we've been in a sort of Second "Gilded Age", similar to the period between 1876 and 1896. During that time, the country saw nothing but close presidential elections, with two highly energized and partisan political bases "going at" each other for the opportunity to take direction of the country's fortunes.

It was also a time of extremely overt political corruption, poor working conditions, anti-immigrant sentiment, and politics based around cultural issues.

[The Mikado]

It's not actually close.

[solidcoalition]

Ever since 2000 (and arguably since 1992), we've been in a sort of Second "Gilded Age", similar to the period between 1876 and 1896. During that time, the country saw nothing but close presidential elections, with two highly energized and partisan political bases "going at" each other for the opportunity to take direction of the country's fortunes.

It was also a time of extremely overt political corruption, poor working conditions, anti-immigrant sentiment, and politics based around cultural issues.

Sounds like today.

[Crumpets]

Polarization

When you overplay your hand with race issues and turn apolitical people to people who are skeptical about race relations with overgeneralizations, you will see a close race.

Out of curiosity, should Biden win in November despite significant support for Trump from law enforcement, their families, police unions, etc., what do you think the path forward would be for Republicans on this particular issue?

They'll follow the LIGOP's model, which the LIGOP have been doing since 1945, run ads on MS-13, law and order, and coordinate with PBAs and other police unions to attack Democratic politicians or libertarians who push for police accountability.

They'll run someone like a Cotton or a DeSantis who is a law and order type.

The Democrats have to bridge gaps with police, especially white cops, because most of the white cops in the NYPD live on Long Island and are supporting Trump just like the PBA boss.

The NY Times did a story yesterday on this.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/nyregion/ny-police-unions-racial-disparity-trump.html

Is that not already what the GOP is doing? It seems like running as a nation-wide LIGOP won't really expand their appeal beyond where it already is, and the fastest growing voting demographics tend to be the least likely to support "tough on crime" policies.

[solidcoalition]

Polarization

When you overplay your hand with race issues and turn apolitical people to people who are skeptical about race relations with overgeneralizations, you will see a close race.

Out of curiosity, should Biden win in November despite significant support for Trump from law enforcement, their families, police unions, etc., what do you think the path forward would be for Republicans on this particular issue?

They'll follow the LIGOP's model, which the LIGOP have been doing since 1945, run ads on MS-13, law and order, and coordinate with PBAs and other police unions to attack Democratic politicians or libertarians who push for police accountability.

They'll run someone like a Cotton or a DeSantis who is a law and order type.

The Democrats have to bridge gaps with police, especially white cops, because most of the white cops in the NYPD live on Long Island and are supporting Trump just like the PBA boss.

The NY Times did a story yesterday on this.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/nyregion/ny-police-unions-racial-disparity-trump.html

Is that not already what the GOP is doing? It seems like running as a nation-wide LIGOP won't really expand their appeal beyond where it already is, and the fastest growing voting demographics tend to be the least likely to support "tough on crime" policies.

Right but some of those demographics don’t help Democrats electorally. You can win 29 million more voters, but if they’re all in Chicago, San Jose, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston and New York...the map doesn’t change one single electoral vote.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Polarization

When you overplay your hand with race issues and turn apolitical people to people who are skeptical about race relations with overgeneralizations, you will see a close race.

Out of curiosity, should Biden win in November despite significant support for Trump from law enforcement, their families, police unions, etc., what do you think the path forward would be for Republicans on this particular issue?

They'll follow the LIGOP's model, which the LIGOP have been doing since 1945, run ads on MS-13, law and order, and coordinate with PBAs and other police unions to attack Democratic politicians or libertarians who push for police accountability.

They'll run someone like a Cotton or a DeSantis who is a law and order type.

The Democrats have to bridge gaps with police, especially white cops, because most of the white cops in the NYPD live on Long Island and are supporting Trump just like the PBA boss.

The NY Times did a story yesterday on this.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/nyregion/ny-police-unions-racial-disparity-trump.html

Is that not already what the GOP is doing? It seems like running as a nation-wide LIGOP won't really expand their appeal beyond where it already is, and the fastest growing voting demographics tend to be the least likely to support "tough on crime" policies.

Right but some of those demographics don’t help Democrats electorally. You can win 29 million more voters, but if they’re all in Chicago, San Jose, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston and New York...the map doesn’t change one single electoral vote.

They may provide a weaker benefit in the EC or the Senate than they do nationally, but it's not realistic to suggest the vast majority are all already in safe D territory.

This matters for the House and local government, if nothing else.

[Admiral Stockdale]

Base of 42ish% that is essentially a lock to vote any candidate in the R column.  You don't need to spend any money convincing them.  They would vote for me if I was on the ballot.

They just need to peck away at the loosely coupled voters - those not locked into a party - and the infrequent voters.  And they don't even need to get to 50% of the popular vote nationally to win.

• Non-college educated, white men... "they" will be taking your jobs and your daughters... bing!
• Florida Cuban Americans...  vote for the other side and you will get the Socialist leader you escaped from...  bing!
• Older Latina/Latino...  abortion, removing God, etc...  bing!

Top that off with an uninspiring Democrat candidate (Dems fall in love, Reps fall in line) and you get a close race.

[solidcoalition]

Base of 42ish% that is essentially a lock to vote any candidate in the R column.  You don't need to spend any money convincing them.  They would vote for me if I was on the ballot.

They just need to peck away at the loosely coupled voters - those not locked into a party - and the infrequent voters.  And they don't even need to get to 50% of the popular vote nationally to win.

• Non-college educated, white men... "they" will be taking your jobs and your daughters... bing!
• Florida Cuban Americans...  vote for the other side and you will get the Socialist leader you escaped from...  bing!
• Older Latina/Latino...  abortion, removing God, etc...  bing!

Top that off with an uninspiring Democrat candidate (Dems fall in love, Reps fall in line) and you get a close race.

Bingo. Had we nominated someone like Warren we wouldn’t have these problems.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The race really isn't that close. The only thing that gives it the illusion it's closer than it is is the EC.