Why is the race so close?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Despite everything that’s happened(Covid-19, Recession, George Floyd, “Dead Soldiers are suckers” “I didn’t wanna cause a panic”, nearly 200,000 Americans dead) the race is 5+ Biden or 2+ Biden.

[Tender Branson]

A) Trump voters don’t give a damn about what crap he says or does

B) a lot of Americans still credit him with the good economy in 2019 and trust him to restore it

[forza nocta]

P O L A R I Z A T I O N

[Roronoa D. Law]

It's not. The only thing keeping this competitive is what happened in 2016. 

[Woody]

It's actually quite amazing when you think about; Trump has negative news directed against him 24/7 on cable-television, he is being outspent by Biden, he has the IC, establishment, judges, 100s of millions of Bloomberg money, Hollywood, Wall Street, majority of the country's billionaires all on the offensive on him, and yet he still managed to make this race competitive.

[Tender Branson]

It's actually quite amazing when you think about; Trump has negative news directed against him 24/7 on cable-television, he is being outspent by Biden, he has the IC, establishment, judges, 100s of millions of Bloomberg, Hollywood, Wall Street, majority of the country's billionaires all on the offensive on him, and yet he still managed to make this race competitive.

Not that amazing or surprising ...

He’s the incumbent President and an electorate usually doesn’t like to change horses (or in the US case, monkeys) during the midst of a crisis situation.

[wbrocks67]

It's actually quite amazing when you think about; Trump has negative news directed against him 24/7 on cable-television, he is being outspent by Biden, he has the IC, establishment, judges, 100s of millions of Bloomberg, Hollywood, Wall Street, majority of the country's billionaires all on the offensive on him, and yet he still managed to make this race competitive.

While I agree that it is insane that it's even remotely competitive after everything that has happened, he is the incumbent, and unfortunately, our country is pretty terrible where you can do whatever you want as long as you have an (R) next to your name, you'll get at least 45% of the vote.

[woodley park]

It's actually quite amazing when you think about; Trump has negative news directed against him 24/7 on cable-television, he is being outspent by Biden, he has the IC, establishment, judges, 100s of millions of Bloomberg, Hollywood, Wall Street, majority of the country's billionaires all on the offensive on him, and yet he still managed to make this race competitive.

He also went on national TV and suggested folks inject disinfectants, and has held multiple rallies in complete disregard for public health guidance -- and those rallies led to people dying. The fact that the race is still competitive says more about the US than it does about how great a leader Trump is.

[Nyvin]

Trump is doing the worst ever seen from an incumbent going for reelection.   I don't see how it could get much worse realistically.

[Hope For A New Era]

Polarization.



Here's the thing though. 40% of Americans still believed Nixon was "not a crook" when he resigned.


We will heal in time.

[Calthrina950]

Trump is doing the worst ever seen from an incumbent going for reelection.   I don't see how it could get much worse realistically.

If you mean by electoral performance, then this is certainly not the case. Herbert Hoover in 1932 and Jimmy Carter in 1980 both had as poor a standing in the polls as Trump has had, and both ended up losing by much more than he will (Hoover in the popular vote and Electoral College; Carter in the Electoral College). But if you mean from the perspective of how Trump has conducted himself in office, especially this year, then I would agree.

[Beet]

Despite everything that’s happened(Covid-19, Recession, George Floyd, “Dead Soldiers are suckers” “I didn’t wanna cause a panic”, nearly 200,000 Americans dead) the race is 5+ Biden or 2+ Biden.

The virus / recession are regarded by many people as unavoidable problems. No country in the entire world was able to evade the virus.

The US has 22% of cases and 21% of deaths despite only 5% of the population. Unacceptable for a country with the world's best healthcare infrastructure.

[Chips]

1. Trump's base is almost immovable in many ways. His floor is generally agreed to be roughly in the 41-44% range.

2. Biden himself is not the best candidate out there to many undecideds. His choice of running mate also runs the risk of not getting out more progressive voters.

3. The economy has slowly but surely risen throughout the year and news about a vaccine coming shortly after the election could be a benefit to Trump.

4. Trump is the incumbent. Despite being generally unpopular throughout his presidency, It holds true that incumbents almost always win nowadays.

Those I think are the four main reasons I think Trump has kept the race at least somewhat competitive despite everything that came down over the past year. Mostly it comes down to incumbency and his base being extremely loyal to him for the most part.

[Crumpets]

1) Polarization

2) The media loves a horse race

[DrScholl]

It's not close.

[WD]

It's not close.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s not close everyone is just so traumatized by 2016 that they think unless Biden is up by 20% then it’s close

[The Dowager Mod]

Republicans are good at vote rigging.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wildfires and climate change, oila nd gas states like MT, AK and TX and OH and IA are likely to go R and states like CA, CO, NV, FL, NC, AZ and OR are going Dem due to the reliance on clean energy. A 278 to a 334 map and a 50 to 52 seat Senate for Dems is the likely outcome

Thats why Trump has pulled ads down in IA and OH, FL, AZ and PA are the bellwethers now

[tjstarling]

Hoover got almost 40% of the vote in ‘32

[Storr]

Hoover got almost 40% of the vote in ‘32

That's so weird to think about. This was still while the South was voting 75% or higher for Democrats nationally, so Hoover was able to reach 40% with basically no votes from a populous region of the country while in the middle of the worst economic depression in the country's history.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's not close.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The only states that are close are FL and PA.  The only plausible victory map for Trump involves winning both of those states.  538 has Biden +4.5% in PA and +1.8% in FL.  Additionally, Biden has a lot of backup plans, such as winning AZ+NE-02 (+3.5% and +2.3%) or winning NC (+0.4%).

So on paper, the election isn't close.  The reason everyone is so worried is because:
A)  The remaining events of the campaign are likely to favor Trump
B)  The high likelihood of election-rigging shenanigans by the Trump campaign and Republican operatives, many of which are already underway in WI, PA and FL

Still, the 56.7% chance betting markets are giving Biden seem low.  I'd personally give Biden about a 70% chance as things stand right now.  (B) is what concerns me most, since Biden has been fairly impervious to the Trump administration's assaults.

[Alben Barkley]

Why do people keep saying the race is close when it’s not?

[tjstarling]

Hoover got almost 40% of the vote in ‘32

That's so weird to think about. This was still while the South was voting 75% or higher for Democrats nationally, so Hoover was able to reach 40% with basically no votes from a populous region of the country while in the middle of the worst economic depression in the country's history.

Yep. In all honesty, even though Bush sported ratings in the 20’s in ‘08, I still think he would have breached 40% of the vote had he been able to run.