FL-Florida Atlantic University: Biden +3 (or tie)

[Tender Branson]

Biden holds a 49 percent to 46 percent lead, with 5 percent undecided.

But those undecideds are breaking for Trump 4:1, resulting in a statistical tie at 50 percent for each candidate.

Trump led Biden in FAU’s March poll, 51 percent to 49 percent, but Biden gained a 53 percent to 47 percent advantage in May.

Roughly 9 percent of Florida voters surveyed said there is a chance they will change their minds, while 97 percent of Trump voters and 94 percent of Biden voters insist they will stick with their choices.

Among Trump voters, 72 percent said they are extremely excited for the election, while 60 percent of Biden supporters expressed the same sentiment.

The survey of 631 registered Florida voters was conducted Sept. 11-12. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. It is important to remember that subsets carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. The data was weighted by ethnicity, age, education, party affiliation, region and gender, based on 2016 Census Voting and Registration modeling. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and cell phones provided by Aristotle Inc. and an online panel provided by Dynata. The polling results and full cross-tabulations are available at www.business.fau.edu/bepi.

http://www.fau.edu/newsdesk/articles/bepi-september.php

#s:

https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2020/florida-2020-its-the-economy.php

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's worth noting that their March and May polls were of registered voters, not likely ones.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not a great poll for Biden. Digging into the toplines, I noticed that the candidates were exactly tied 315-315 with leaners, with the 631st voter opting for "someone else." Strong Ralph Nader vibes.

[Tender Branson]

This is probably one of those polls we should take a close look at !

In 2016, they had Trump+2 in mid-August and Clinton+3 in late October.

In 2018, they were one of the few polls with Scott+1 twice and Gillium+4 (which was a bit off).

Anyway, pretty bad poll for Biden.

He must have a significant Latino problem in that state ...

[psychprofessor]

Looking at the cross tabs shows some warning signs for Trump: Only winning Whites by 7 and losing Seniors.

[Buzz]

Trumpmentum

[Rand]

Trump is done.

[ajc0918]

Luckily Mr. Bloomberg's $100M investment in the state will sway those undecideds.

[VAR]

Trump approval: 47/49
DeSantis approval: 43/44

[GeorgiaModerate]

But those undecideds are breaking for Trump 4:1, resulting in a statistical tie at 50 percent for each candidate.

Have there been any other polls this year that have shown undecideds breaking strongly for Trump?  It's usually the other way around.

[VAR]

Hispanics: Trump 51-46 (sample: 84 voters)

[wbrocks67]

But those undecideds are breaking for Trump 4:1, resulting in a statistical tie at 50 percent for each candidate.

Have there been any other polls this year that have shown undecideds breaking strongly for Trump?  It's usually the other way around.

Yeah, I was gonna say, this sounds really off.

Also it's hilarious to me that people are running in here saying this is bad for Biden when he's up 3.

[wbrocks67]

Hispanics: Trump 51-46 (sample: 84 voters)

This is the problem. There's nothing you can get meaningful out of a sample of 84 people.

[psychprofessor]

But those undecideds are breaking for Trump 4:1, resulting in a statistical tie at 50 percent for each candidate.

Have there been any other polls this year that have shown undecideds breaking strongly for Trump?  It's usually the other way around.

Be careful with the small sample sized cross tabs - this has Trump winning 18-29 year olds and winning Hispanics as well as the undecideds. The larger sample sized cross tabs are more reliable - here we can see warning signs for Trump. A single digit win with Whites and losing the 65+ cohort.

[wbrocks67]

Of course 538 adds the tied version and not the Biden +3 version as well.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Of course 538 adds the tied version and not the Biden +3 version as well.

They almost always add results with leaners when they are available.

[wbrocks67]

Of course 538 adds the tied version and not the Biden +3 version as well.

They almost always add results with leaners when they are available.

If you're doing a model and average though, why not add both just for more data?

[Red Wall]

Undecideds in Florida lean gop.

[wbrocks67]

Undecideds in Florida lean gop.

80-20 is a little ridiculous though. That hasn't borne out anywhere else, let alone Trump even winning undecideds at all.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Of course 538 adds the tied version and not the Biden +3 version as well.

They almost always add results with leaners when they are available.

If you're doing a model and average though, why not add both just for more data?

They do that for polls with alternate turnout models, but their polling average - not sure about their model - has always worked this way as opposed to de-emphasising the preferences of leaners, which is what adding both results would do (some polls only release the final result with leaners anyway, so at least this ensures consistency).

[DaleCooper]

Looking at the cross tabs shows some warning signs for Trump: Only winning Whites by 7 and losing Seniors.

People really underestimate how impossible it is for Trump to win Florida without maintaining a big lead amongst senior citizens. And that's just if the gap were to close a few points, let alone actually losing the 65+ demographic to Biden! Improving among Cuban voters isn't a good tradeoff for him.

I'm calling it, either Trump's standing among the elderly has fallen as much as this and other polls claim, or Trump is dead-even in Florida. It cannot be both. In this day and age, Republicans can't lose seniors and win a state like Florida.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Looking at the cross tabs shows some warning signs for Trump: Only winning Whites by 7 and losing Seniors.

People really underestimate how impossible it is for Trump to win Florida without maintaining a big lead amongst senior citizens. And that's just if the gap were to close a few points, let alone actually losing the 65+ demographic to Biden! Improving among Cuban voters isn't a good tradeoff for him.

I'm calling it, either Trump's standing among the elderly has fallen as much as this and other polls claim, or Trump is dead-even in Florida. It cannot be both. In this day and age, Republicans can't lose seniors and win a state like Florida.

Place much more stock in a tied topline than a crosstab suggesting trouble, please. I have had it with the "If this demographic votes as the inherently unrepresentative crosstab suggests, then the much more reliable topline cannot hold."

[wbrocks67]

What's interesting is that if Biden is really winning 65+ voters in all of these states, this race is not as close as some of the polls are making it seem.

Like if you actually had a representative sample here of 18-29 year olds and even had Biden winning by 10 instead of Trump winning, his margin here would be like +5 or +6.

[DaleCooper]

Looking at the cross tabs shows some warning signs for Trump: Only winning Whites by 7 and losing Seniors.

People really underestimate how impossible it is for Trump to win Florida without maintaining a big lead amongst senior citizens. And that's just if the gap were to close a few points, let alone actually losing the 65+ demographic to Biden! Improving among Cuban voters isn't a good tradeoff for him.

I'm calling it, either Trump's standing among the elderly has fallen as much as this and other polls claim, or Trump is dead-even in Florida. It cannot be both. In this day and age, Republicans can't lose seniors and win a state like Florida.

Place much more stock in a tied topline than a crosstab suggesting trouble. Please.

It isn't one crosstab. 65+ voters preferring Biden nationwide (and in Florida) is backed up by lots of data for months now, and it's consistent even as the race has seemed to drift around a bit as news stories came and went. Putting this individual poll aside, my point still stands broadly speaking: if Biden actually is winning among senior citizens, then Trump isn't winning Florida.

[psychprofessor]

Looking at the cross tabs shows some warning signs for Trump: Only winning Whites by 7 and losing Seniors.

People really underestimate how impossible it is for Trump to win Florida without maintaining a big lead amongst senior citizens. And that's just if the gap were to close a few points, let alone actually losing the 65+ demographic to Biden! Improving among Cuban voters isn't a good tradeoff for him.

I'm calling it, either Trump's standing among the elderly has fallen as much as this and other polls claim, or Trump is dead-even in Florida. It cannot be both. In this day and age, Republicans can't lose seniors and win a state like Florida.

Place much more stock in a tied topline than a crosstab suggesting trouble, please. I have had it with the "If this demographic votes as the inherently unrepresentative crosstab suggests, then the much more reliable topline cannot hold."

The thing is, most live caller polls have him losing 65+ cohort. This isn't new. If this is a trend nation wide, and in Florida, then it would spell big trouble for Trump.