ME-Citizen Data: Gideon +8
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 11, 2020, 12:09:38 PM »

Sep 4-7, 600 LV

Gideon (D) 49%
Collins (R, inc.) 41%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200911_ME.pdf
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2020, 12:11:23 PM »

This race is over, Gideon wins
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2020, 12:33:55 PM »

MoE: 4%

Other 2% (presumably, write-in candidates - there is at least one)
Savage 1%
Linn 0%
Unsure 7%
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WD
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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2020, 12:40:20 PM »

Lean D. Not over by any means but itís hard to see how Collins comes back.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2020, 12:42:58 PM »

Only MT Treasurer believes that this is Safe R, and its not
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2020, 07:31:09 PM »

Yeah, the AARP Gideon +1 poll seemed like an outlier considering everything else we've seen has at least been like Gideon +4
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Astatine
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« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2020, 07:32:39 PM »

Yeah, the AARP Gideon +1 poll seemed like an outlier considering everything else we've seen has at least been like Gideon +4
And even that poll showed a win for Gideon. Lean D.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2020, 07:46:10 PM »

But that one poster in the ME Sen thread is saying that Gideon blew it !!!! /s
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2020, 07:54:04 PM »

But that one poster in the ME Sen thread is saying that Gideon blew it !!!! /s

To be fair, we don't have any post-debate polling, although I'm skeptical that this will have too much impact. How many people watched the debate, and how many of those people are persuadable, and how many of those people will be swayed by Collins' "good" performance.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2020, 08:05:07 PM »

Collins' only hope is to either go full-on MAGA or full-on Never Trumper (lol), because being a fake moderate certainly isn't cutting it anymore.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2020, 08:24:33 PM »

But that one poster in the ME Sen thread is saying that Gideon blew it !!!! /s

A poster who lives in Maine and has followed the race closely-as they explained in their response. I don't think we should dismiss criticisms of Gideon's performance in such a prompt manner.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2020, 09:07:51 PM »

Sigh, Rs think this is 2016, when the economy was at 4 percent and 2014, when Collins won reelection, due to support for Obamacare, she voted with him on, the end is near for Collins
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2020, 11:52:45 PM »

But that one poster in the ME Sen thread is saying that Gideon blew it !!!! /s

A poster who lives in Maine and has followed the race closely-as they explained in their response. I don't think we should dismiss criticisms of Gideon's performance in such a prompt manner.

If this poll had shown Collins with a narrow lead, he would have dismissed it as sketchy and unreliable because they didnít release the presidential numbers (see his reaction to the MT-AL poll showing Rosendale ahead). Surprised no one else noticed that the Q2 results werenít included in their release.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2020, 03:43:04 AM »

But that one poster in the ME Sen thread is saying that Gideon blew it !!!! /s

A poster who lives in Maine and has followed the race closely-as they explained in their response. I don't think we should dismiss criticisms of Gideon's performance in such a prompt manner.


CO and ME are gone
If this poll had shown Collins with a narrow lead, he would have dismissed it as sketchy and unreliable because they didnít release the presidential numbers (see his reaction to the MT-AL poll showing Rosendale ahead). Surprised no one else noticed that the Q2 results werenít included in their release.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2020, 12:09:47 PM »

New Poll: Maine Senator by IVR Polls on 2020-09-07

Summary: D: 49%, R: 41%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Badger
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« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2020, 12:56:23 PM »

But that one poster in the ME Sen thread is saying that Gideon blew it !!!! /s

A poster who lives in Maine and has followed the race closely-as they explained in their response. I don't think we should dismiss criticisms of Gideon's performance in such a prompt manner.

Realistically though, for the greater than 95% of Voters who are political junkies like us, how many people are really persuaded by these debates? Consider the small number of people who actually watch the debates, take away from them the overwhelming number who are already dyed hard partisans, and then how many persuadable votes do you have? On top of that, from what I've read it was at best a technical win by Collins on points rather than Gideon making any huge Club that would Garner negative media attention.

Genuine question is I'm interested in your take as a Mainer as to what kind of secondary news coverage the debate is getting, if any, and what leads you to believe it might realistically impact the race.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #16 on: September 14, 2020, 01:33:18 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2020, 01:39:27 PM by Alben Barkley »

Collins' only hope is to either go full-on MAGA or full-on Never Trumper (lol), because being a fake moderate certainly isn't cutting it anymore.

I think sheís damned no matter what she does. Going full on MAGA isnít really viable in a state like Maine; Trump is not going to win the state, and if she does that there wonít be enough Biden/Collins voters for her to win. But there are enough Trump voters in the state that going full on Never Trumper isnít viable either; then for every Biden voter she picks up, she likely loses several Republican Trump voters. Oh, and neither side would fully trust her if she pivoted hard in one direction or the other at this point. So all she really can do is continue this ridiculous tightrope walk act, trying desperately to pretend thereís still any viable way to run as a ďmoderate RepublicanĒ anymore if your name isnít Mitt Romney or Charlie Baker. And they can only do it because of the unique positions their states are in. Collins doesnít have the luxury of running in a state full of Republicans who donít really like Trump (Utah) or Democrats who are happy to vote for a RINO (Massachusetts). Or independents who are happy to split tickets, as Maine once was. Her state is as polarized as any now.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2020, 01:44:54 PM »

Collins' only hope is to either go full-on MAGA or full-on Never Trumper (lol), because being a fake moderate certainly isn't cutting it anymore.

I think sheís damned no matter what she does. Going full on MAGA isnít really viable in a state like Maine; Trump is not going to win the state, and if she does that there wonít be enough Biden/Collins voters for her to win. But there are enough Trump voters in the state that going full on Never Trumper isnít viable either; then for every Biden voter she picks up, she likely loses several Republican Trump voters. Oh, and neither side would fully trust her if she pivoted hard in one direction or the other at this point. So all she really can do is continue this ridiculous tightrope walk act, trying desperately to pretend thereís still any viable way to run as a ďmoderate RepublicanĒ anymore if your name isnít Mitt Romney or Charlie Baker. And they can only do it because of the unique positions their states are in. Collins doesnít have the luxury of running in a state full of Republicans who donít really like Trump (Utah) or Democrats who are happy to vote for a RINO (Massachusetts). Or independents who are happy to split tickets, as Maine once was. Her state is as polarized as any now.

I fully agree. I think she could have done a great service to herself to switch to Independent in 2018 and caucus with the Democrats, saying that she didn't leave her party, the party, now a Trump cult, left her. Afterwards, she could have voted against Kavanaugh and for impeachment, while supporting some Republican policies on taxes or deregulation. The Democrats might still have fielded a (lackluster) candidate, while the rest plays out similar to Angus King.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: September 14, 2020, 01:48:18 PM »

MT treasurer still won't let go the fact Collins in DOA, he still has John James and Collins winning
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #19 on: September 14, 2020, 06:12:45 PM »

But that one poster in the ME Sen thread is saying that Gideon blew it !!!! /s

A poster who lives in Maine and has followed the race closely-as they explained in their response. I don't think we should dismiss criticisms of Gideon's performance in such a prompt manner.

Realistically though, for the greater than 95% of Voters who are political junkies like us, how many people are really persuaded by these debates? Consider the small number of people who actually watch the debates, take away from them the overwhelming number who are already dyed hard partisans, and then how many persuadable votes do you have? On top of that, from what I've read it was at best a technical win by Collins on points rather than Gideon making any huge Club that would Garner negative media attention.

Genuine question is I'm interested in your take as a Mainer as to what kind of secondary news coverage the debate is getting, if any, and what leads you to believe it might realistically impact the race.

Obviously, I'm not a Mainer; I was referring to GoldenMainer, who wbrocks67 dismissed out of hand, and what he had to say about the debate. You're correct when you say that most people don't pay attention to the debates, and that the majority of those who watch are committed partisans whose minds have already been made up. GoldenMainer was describing, on the ME-Sen thread, how his parents, who are independents and genuinely undecided on the race, perceived the debate, and that they thought Gideon performed poorly. wbrocks67 didn't take that into consideration and tried to spin the debate into a negative about Collins.
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #20 on: September 14, 2020, 06:34:48 PM »

You can tell Collins has never had a truly competitive race in her life, because she seems to be making an active effort to fumble this.
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GoldenMainer
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« Reply #21 on: September 14, 2020, 10:43:00 PM »

But that one poster in the ME Sen thread is saying that Gideon blew it !!!! /s

A) Stop with the dramatics, it is very unbecoming. I said Gideon's debate prep team needs to do a better job, which they do. Gideon came across flat and her jabs at Collins did not land. She rarely went after Collins on policy and when she did, she was talking about an amicus brief. The average Joe at the diner (the people I encounter on a daily basis here) don't know what the hell that is. Collins was speaking in plain terms for the average person to understand and spoke of her record and endorsements from first responders. Thus, I thought she was more effective in the debate and came across more prepared (mind you, I do not support her).

B) This poll was not taken after the debate, it was taken before. Not saying that the debate will largely change things, but your pointing to a poll taken before a debate to prove that a candidate didn't perform badly in a debate is... a choice.

C) I asked you in the other thread but you did not respond, where are you from? Maine? What is the feeling on the ground where you are?

D) Do not come for me about anything Maine related. You can look at my history on here. While some people online were falling for Lucas St. Clair for environmental and self-funding reasons in the ME-02 primary in 2018, I continued to advocate for Jared Golden as the person who could flip the seat. And guess what? He did (and was the first person in a long time to knock off an incumbent in that seat). Also in 2018 during the governor's primary, I stated that Janet Mills would be a strong primary choice given her ME-02 roots and her work as a district attorney. She won. Not to mention, I mapped out the competitive state Senate districts- of which I had my finger on the pulse of those as well.

E) Do I believe Gideon can win? Yes. But she does not have the ideal profile for a statewide race so she needs to work harder for it. Instead of mocking the people who actually live in Maine and have witnessed for years what works here and what does not, perhaps be open-minded and receptive to what they have to say. 
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #22 on: September 15, 2020, 05:56:36 AM »

Do non-presidential election debates even matter? You'd really have to say something crazy / offensive to have it aired widely in the media. Otherwise, who watches the debates? Committed partisans?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: September 15, 2020, 08:50:24 AM »

But that one poster in the ME Sen thread is saying that Gideon blew it !!!! /s

A) Stop with the dramatics, it is very unbecoming. I said Gideon's debate prep team needs to do a better job, which they do. Gideon came across flat and her jabs at Collins did not land. She rarely went after Collins on policy and when she did, she was talking about an amicus brief. The average Joe at the diner (the people I encounter on a daily basis here) don't know what the hell that is. Collins was speaking in plain terms for the average person to understand and spoke of her record and endorsements from first responders. Thus, I thought she was more effective in the debate and came across more prepared (mind you, I do not support her).

B) This poll was not taken after the debate, it was taken before. Not saying that the debate will largely change things, but your pointing to a poll taken before a debate to prove that a candidate didn't perform badly in a debate is... a choice.

C) I asked you in the other thread but you did not respond, where are you from? Maine? What is the feeling on the ground where you are?

D) Do not come for me about anything Maine related. You can look at my history on here. While some people online were falling for Lucas St. Clair for environmental and self-funding reasons in the ME-02 primary in 2018, I continued to advocate for Jared Golden as the person who could flip the seat. And guess what? He did (and was the first person in a long time to knock off an incumbent in that seat). Also in 2018 during the governor's primary, I stated that Janet Mills would be a strong primary choice given her ME-02 roots and her work as a district attorney. She won. Not to mention, I mapped out the competitive state Senate districts- of which I had my finger on the pulse of those as well.

E) Do I believe Gideon can win? Yes. But she does not have the ideal profile for a statewide race so she needs to work harder for it. Instead of mocking the people who actually live in Maine and have witnessed for years what works here and what does not, perhaps be open-minded and receptive to what they have to say. 

My problem is that you weren't providing an objective review of the debate. You seem to be going out of your to way to find things that Gideon did bad, while at the same time only saying what Collins did right. So according to you, Gideon didn't do anything good, and Collins didn't do anything bad, which given the coverage, Collins was way more dinged for not answering about Trump than anything Gideon had to say about Roberts.

I'm not trying to down you as a Mainer and your perspective, but you seem to be a little biased here and not offering an objective review. Listening to you, it sounds like Gideon was a total flop and this was Collins best debate ever. Neither are true.
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VAR
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« Reply #24 on: September 15, 2020, 09:58:19 AM »

But that one poster in the ME Sen thread is saying that Gideon blew it !!!! /s

A) Stop with the dramatics, it is very unbecoming. I said Gideon's debate prep team needs to do a better job, which they do. Gideon came across flat and her jabs at Collins did not land. She rarely went after Collins on policy and when she did, she was talking about an amicus brief. The average Joe at the diner (the people I encounter on a daily basis here) don't know what the hell that is. Collins was speaking in plain terms for the average person to understand and spoke of her record and endorsements from first responders. Thus, I thought she was more effective in the debate and came across more prepared (mind you, I do not support her).

B) This poll was not taken after the debate, it was taken before. Not saying that the debate will largely change things, but your pointing to a poll taken before a debate to prove that a candidate didn't perform badly in a debate is... a choice.

C) I asked you in the other thread but you did not respond, where are you from? Maine? What is the feeling on the ground where you are?

D) Do not come for me about anything Maine related. You can look at my history on here. While some people online were falling for Lucas St. Clair for environmental and self-funding reasons in the ME-02 primary in 2018, I continued to advocate for Jared Golden as the person who could flip the seat. And guess what? He did (and was the first person in a long time to knock off an incumbent in that seat). Also in 2018 during the governor's primary, I stated that Janet Mills would be a strong primary choice given her ME-02 roots and her work as a district attorney. She won. Not to mention, I mapped out the competitive state Senate districts- of which I had my finger on the pulse of those as well.

E) Do I believe Gideon can win? Yes. But she does not have the ideal profile for a statewide race so she needs to work harder for it. Instead of mocking the people who actually live in Maine and have witnessed for years what works here and what does not, perhaps be open-minded and receptive to what they have to say. 

My problem is that you weren't providing an objective review of the debate. You seem to be going out of your to way to find things that Gideon did bad, while at the same time only saying what Collins did right. So according to you, Gideon didn't do anything good, and Collins didn't do anything bad, which given the coverage, Collins was way more dinged for not answering about Trump than anything Gideon had to say about Roberts.

I'm not trying to down you as a Mainer and your perspective, but you seem to be a little biased here and not offering an objective review. Listening to you, it sounds like Gideon was a total flop and this was Collins best debate ever. Neither are true.

I remember GoldenMainer saying,

If you think Collins is popular, Snowe was even more popular. When they served together, Snowe was always the star and Collins was the ugly less popular stepchild who never got the spotlight.

If he really meant Susan Collins was ďthe ugly less popular stepchild who never got the spotlightĒ, then I canít possibly imagine him overrating the same personís debate performance.
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