Of course not. Only people who believe every stupid OHPI poll that comes out would think that.
That may exaggerate the reality -- but even a 6% lead for Biden (OH PI has 10%, and 4% is about the margin of error) is a near-killer at this stage of the Presidential race. Consider that Arizona has a fast-growing Mexican-American population, and that it has credibility in politics. If the Democrats are using one of their strongest assets from their convention, then it may be ads that have a young woman who looks like a high-fashion model lamenting the death of her father from COVID-19 and connecting that to Trump policies eloquently and coherently. That could explain much. (Anyone from Arizona?)
As significant is that a CNN poll has Biden up 52-42 in Wisconsin today. That too is a killer at this stage. At this point I would figure that either Arizona or Wisconsin seals a Biden win. A 10% lead for Biden in Arizona is now credible due to GOP bungling of COVID-19 at both the state and federal level. It is just as bad that Trump doesn't crack 42 in Wisconsin as that Biden is at 52. There was a FoX News poll that had Biden up 9% in Arizona...
A 10% lead gives one about a 91% chance of winning the state at this stage. Arizona and Wisconsin are different enough that they might not quite move in tandem.
Probability is multiplicative. Trump will need both Arizona and Wisconsin, and his chance of winning both is .09 x .09 = .0081, which is less than 1%. So it's only 9%? Then it is .13 x .09 = .0107, which is just over 1%.
CNN also polled North Carolina, a state which Donald Trump absolutely, positively, must win. A 3% lead gives Biden a 64% chance of winning if nothing goes screwy. Things get worse for Trump with this result... and although he has a 36% chance of winning North Carolina, his position there in no way helps him. North Carolina is very different from both Arizona and Wisconsin, so between Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, Trump has this chance of winning all three (and, really, he must):
.09 x .09 x .36 = 0.002916 .. or one in almost 343 if you see the results in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
I can play other games with probability. Take two states in which Trump seems to have an edge. A couple days ago Nate Silver had Trump's probability of winning Texas at 68% and of winning Iowa at 67%. A two-thirds chance of winning both states separately is not the same as the chance of winning them together.
.67 x .68 = .4556.
As a Democrat who absolutely despises Trump, I would be biting my fingernails off if the election hinged on Iowa and Texas singly as chances for a Biden win, but even that combination (OK, Biden will win Wisconsin should he win Iowa) would have an even harsher effect on some Trump supporter who takes statistics and probability seriously. Regrettably for the quality of their lives, they don't take probability and statistics seriously. (At the college level, statistics is the easiest set of math courses). Trump would have slightly more than a 45% chance of winning.
"45" is a lucky number? Only fools believe in lucky numbers.
I am slow to recognize the effects of events upon polling, but nothing that Trump has said recently better resembles what one might hear from a statesman than a madman. The has deprecated America's soldiers, which doesn't make friends even on what President Trump calls "the Left", and he has been exposed as a liar (and not simply wrong) about COVID-19.
