Is Arizona gone for Trump?

[Bomster]

Obviously he still has a chance of winning it, but at this point with recent polls showing Biden leading by large margins and Kelly beating McSally by double digits is Arizona’s Virginia-style transformation complete?

[Ferguson97]

Probably, yeah. There would need to be a significant amount of Kelly/Trump voters for him to win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not gone but he is a clear underdog.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Probably. It's not 100% gone but I doubt that Trump will win AZ this year. Biden by 3-5%.

[BaldEagle1991]

No. One major move such as a Biden gaffe, a skeleton in the closet reveal on either Kamala Harris or Joe Biden, is enough to tip Arizona.

Plus there’s a possibility of Arizona being the “Wisconsin or Pennsylvania” of 2020 so a polling error isn’t out of the woods yet.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Who knows for sure but it starting to look like Maricopa is going to flip and hard. Not a good sign for Trump.

[wbrocks67]

No. One major move such as a Biden gaffe, a skeleton in the closet reveal on either Kamala Harris or Joe Biden, is enough to tip Arizona.

Plus there’s a possibility of Arizona being the “Wisconsin or Pennsylvania” of 2020 so a polling error isn’t out of the woods yet.

Given that Arizona polling has actually *undersold* Democrats in both 2016 and 2018, the latter seems unlikely

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

No. One major move such as a Biden gaffe, a skeleton in the closet reveal on either Kamala Harris or Joe Biden, is enough to tip Arizona.

Plus there’s a possibility of Arizona being the “Wisconsin or Pennsylvania” of 2020 so a polling error isn’t out of the woods yet.

1. Biden saying dumb things is already baked into public opinion about him. He would need to say five dumb things a day for the next 45 days.

2. Trump tried to strong arm the president of a foreign country into creating a Biden scandal that didn't exist. If there were anything in Biden's closet, we'd know about it by now.

3. Clinton actually performed slightly better in AZ than the 2016 polls had indicated. These errors can go both ways.

All that being said, Trump still has a good chance of stealing AZ. It would take a run of very good economic and COVID news (along with seven straight weeks without yet another Trump bombshell), and time is running out for that to happen.

If the polls look like this seven weeks from now, I'd put Trump's chances of winning AZ at 10%. 20% at best.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only 4 Dems won AZ in a Prez contest Wilson, FDR, Truman, Clinton and all but 1 won a mandate election

[RINO Tom]

I think followers of politics tend to look at realignments too often with the South/Black voters in mind ... states don’t always have to be “gone.”  Iowa was a reliably GOP state then a Dem-leaning state then a GOP-leaning state.  AZ could just be moving to swing state status or even “Lean Dem,” but GONE??  Like, until when...?

[Bomster]

I think followers of politics tend to look at realignments too often with the South/Black voters in mind ... states don’t always have to be “gone.”  Iowa was a reliably GOP state then a Dem-leaning state then a GOP-leaning state.  AZ could just be moving to swing state status or even “Lean Dem,” but GONE??  Like, until when...?

When I saw gone I mean for the foreseeable future. Like how I’d consider Colorado and Virginia as “gone” for the Republicans.

[Storr]

Not quite imo...but it's getting there. It's been a long time coming, plus Trump has simply sped up trends (suburban educated whites switching to Democrats being the biggest factor in Arizona's creep leftward). Also, the state's demographics immediately put Trump at a disadvantage compared to other swing states (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, etc. are all much whiter than Arizona).  

[VAR]

No. One major move such as a Biden gaffe, a skeleton in the closet reveal on either Kamala Harris or Joe Biden, is enough to tip Arizona.

Plus there’s a possibility of Arizona being the “Wisconsin or Pennsylvania” of 2020 so a polling error isn’t out of the woods yet.

Given that Arizona polling has actually *undersold* Democrats in both 2016 and 2018, the latter seems unlikely

Going by the 538 average,

Sinema +1.8 in 2018 (result: Sinema +2.4)
Trump +2.3 in 2016 (result: Trump +3.5)

So overestimated McSally only slightly which is fine given Hispanic turnout was higher than expected in 2018.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I think followers of politics tend to look at realignments too often with the South/Black voters in mind ... states don’t always have to be “gone.”  Iowa was a reliably GOP state then a Dem-leaning state then a GOP-leaning state.  AZ could just be moving to swing state status or even “Lean Dem,” but GONE??  Like, until when...?

When I saw gone I mean for the foreseeable future. Like how I’d consider Colorado and Virginia as “gone” for the Republicans.

The problem Republicans going forward is that the area outside of Maricopa county is in fact more Democratic than Maricopa County itself with no sign any other places moving towards Republicans. Look at historically Republican counties like Hillsborough FL, Charleston SC, and Harris TX. All were diverse and educated counties that anchored their respective metro area. They're not even in the realm of competitively anymore.

I'm not saying Maricopa or Arizona is gone for Republican I am just simply saying that the data we have so far shows that it is or is heading that way.

[politics_king]

For this election, Arizona is going to go Dem. The thing is the demographics are changing as I have quite a few friends and old co-workers who left SoCal to move to Arizona.

[Non Swing Voter]

It does appear that Biden is the favorite this year in a way that wouldn't have been predictable a year ago.  I think the Mark Kelly race is helping a lot. 

I don't think it's gone for Republicans to the degree Virginia is though.

[Badger]

Trump, probably. But not for tbe GOP in the immediate future. Gun to my head, it still votes to fhe rigbt of the national pvi, albeit barely.

[JGibson]

It's essentially gone for Trump at this point.

[DaleCooper]

Honestly, at this point I don't think Trump has much of a shot in Arizona.

[Pericles]

To me this is really asking "is the presidency gone for Trump?", like with a lot of these threads. And while there are high chances of a Trump defeat, I don't think we can think say it is inevitable.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Although Pennsylvania looks just as winnable in terms of polling (I expect it to deliver Biden a slightly larger margin of victory), AZ has always been harder to win for Trump because he has to rely mostly on more reversing/preventing trends much more than in other states. In most of the rust belt states, he can afford to do a bit of that while leaning into favourable trends (there don't seem to be many in AZ).

It's not necessarily going to be a heavily Democratic state in the future, but I'm almost ready to rate it likely D in 2020. At a strong lean D, I think it's still worth contesting for the Trump campaign.

[VAR]

No. One major move such as a Biden gaffe, a skeleton in the closet reveal on either Kamala Harris or Joe Biden, is enough to tip Arizona.

Plus there’s a possibility of Arizona being the “Wisconsin or Pennsylvania” of 2020 so a polling error isn’t out of the woods yet.

Given that Arizona polling has actually *undersold* Democrats in both 2016 and 2018, the latter seems unlikely

Going by the 538 average,

Sinema +1.8 in 2018 (result: Sinema +2.4)
Trump +2.3 in 2016 (result: Trump +3.5)

So overestimated McSally only slightly which is fine given Hispanic turnout was higher than expected in 2018.

For the billionth time... 538 state-level forecasts are not polling averages.  They are highly modeled results.  They incorporate state polling data but they incorporate lots of other stuff too, including economic data, national polls, demographics, etc.  So you can't really use them to say that someone over- or under-performed the polls.

RCP is not totally ideal for this purpose either either because they cherry pick in a non-transparent fashion (i.e. I had thought their 2016 Texas presidential page showed that Hillary over-performed the polls there, but it was actually just the case that RCP hadn't included the Texas polls that were more favorable to her, and she did basically exactly as well as a more comprehensive average would have shown.)  I wish pollster.com was still around.

Uh.. I know what I’m posting. And what I posted was just the polling average, not the entire forecast.

[tagimaucia]

No. One major move such as a Biden gaffe, a skeleton in the closet reveal on either Kamala Harris or Joe Biden, is enough to tip Arizona.

Plus there’s a possibility of Arizona being the “Wisconsin or Pennsylvania” of 2020 so a polling error isn’t out of the woods yet.

Given that Arizona polling has actually *undersold* Democrats in both 2016 and 2018, the latter seems unlikely

Going by the 538 average,

Sinema +1.8 in 2018 (result: Sinema +2.4)
Trump +2.3 in 2016 (result: Trump +3.5)

So overestimated McSally only slightly which is fine given Hispanic turnout was higher than expected in 2018.

For the billionth time... 538 state-level forecasts are not polling averages.  They are highly modeled results.  They incorporate state polling data but they incorporate lots of other stuff too, including economic data, national polls, demographics, etc.  So you can't really use them to say that someone over- or under-performed the polls.

RCP is not totally ideal for this purpose either either because they cherry pick in a non-transparent fashion (i.e. I had thought their 2016 Texas presidential page showed that Hillary over-performed the polls there, but it was actually just the case that RCP hadn't included the Texas polls that were more favorable to her, and she did basically exactly as well as a more comprehensive average would have shown.)  I wish pollster.com was still around.

Uh.. I know what I’m posting. And what I posted was just the polling average, not the entire forecast.

I looked and the actual polling averages were pretty much what you posted, which is why I deleted my post. My bad!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Woodward book revelations stalled any comeback by Trump, which is typical due to the fact in  so many cases, Rs whom have been strong on leading the military on the battlefield have been weak on military intellegences since Eisenhower won WWII with Nazis. Hoover and Oswald, Bush W went on vacation while he was briefed before 911 and Bush W knowing about levies being breached before Katrina. Now, Trump new about dangers o Covid 19 while he still tells people not to wear mask

[Person Man]

I will say this much: I do not foresee a Democratic president who has lost Arizona getting elected any time soon.