Is Arizona gone for Trump?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Although Pennsylvania looks just as winnable in terms of polling (I expect it to deliver Biden a slightly larger margin of victory), AZ has always been harder to win for Trump because he has to rely mostly on more reversing/preventing trends much more than in other states. In most of the rust belt states, he can afford to do a bit of that while leaning into favourable trends (there don't seem to be many in AZ).

It's not necessarily going to be a heavily Democratic state in the future, but I'm almost ready to rate it likely D in 2020. At a strong lean D, I think it's still worth contesting for the Trump campaign.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Of course not. Only people who believe every stupid OHPI poll that comes out would think that.

More like people who care about the demographic and geographic realities of this state, which suggest an extremely unfavorable future for Republicans in our current alignment, people who acknowledge the shifts in the two parties' coalitions, and people who realize that there is no recent history of Democratic bias in pre-election polling in AZ, but okay.

In any case, if by "gone" you mean Likely D, then yes. I don’t think Trump's path to 270 runs through this state.

How noble and knowledgable you must be good sir. I mean wow, the pretentiousness just reeks.

I'm not denying the "reality" of the way Arizona has gone and is going, I haven't seen many people deny that. What I'm suggesting is that the state is still close and Trump still has the possibility of winning it, and a poll that refuses to weight by education and has a host of other problems does not change that.

What I'm suggesting is it's not gone (aka: It's not Safe D, Likely D does not mean gone). But even saying that has now become too "Republican-friendly" for you to tolerate.

The OP stated that “obviously Trump still has a chance of winning it,” so I think it’s ok to take ‘gone’ as closer to likely D than any other rating.