AZ - OH Predictive Insights: Biden +10%

[Dr. Arch]

Wow, and my bullish prediction was Biden 52 / Trump 46.

[Gracile]

They had Clinton winning Arizona by 5 at one point in 2016, so they have always had a D Bias.  Biden is winning AZ but not by 10 points let’s not be dumb.

This pollster frequently gave McSally her best poll results in 2018 (winning outside the margin of error in some), so to say it has a Democratic bias is not accurate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

They had Clinton winning Arizona by 5 at one point in 2016, so they have always had a D Bias.  Biden is winning AZ but not by 10 points let’s not be dumb.

This pollster frequently gave McSally her best poll results in 2018 (winning outside the margin of error in some), so to say it has a Democratic bias is not accurate.

538's pollster ratings have them with an average bias of R+0.9.

[Person Man]

What would this mean if this happened? I don't think many of us really comprehend what this would mean.

[Oryxslayer]

They had Clinton winning Arizona by 5 at one point in 2016, so they have always had a D Bias.  Biden is winning AZ but not by 10 points let’s not be dumb.

This pollster frequently gave McSally her best poll results in 2018 (winning outside the margin of error in some), so to say it has a Democratic bias is not accurate.

Speaking of McSally, I'm sad this poll didn't ask about the senate race. We could have perhaps seen the widest lead for Kelly yet, continuing the seats trend towards Likely Dem.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What would this mean if this happened? I don't think many of us really comprehend what this would mean.

Biden wins the election by a large margin (EV in the high 300's or low 400's).  McSally is blown out, of course.  Democrats likely take the Senate with a couple of seats to spare.

[Oryxslayer]

What would this mean if this happened? I don't think many of us really comprehend what this would mean.

Biden wins the election by a large margin (EV in the high 300's or low 400's).  McSally is blown out, of course.  Democrats likely take the Senate with a couple of seats to spare.

Means AZ would have a PVI less republican that NC and FL, which is a jump I'm not sure people will expect. It also probably means Biden wins AZ on E-Night thanks to the large, but not complete, initial mail ballot drop.

[CellarDoor]

What would this mean if this happened? I don't think many of us really comprehend what this would mean.

Who knows really?  On the one hand it could be indicative of a large Biden landslide.  On the other hand it could be indicative of demographic changes specific to AZ (which we know is happening but this result would show is happening at a more rapid pace than previously thought).  It could also be rejection of the incumbent.  Arizona has a lot of reitrees (who are much more receptive to the Democratic ticket than they were 4 years ago), a significant veteran population, a significant Mormon population, and was home to John McCain.  

Of course, it could also be that Biden +10% is a normal polling result for a race that is really Biden + 6-7%.  

That said, I do believe that Biden is ahead here and the polling has been very consistent.  Biden is just as good of a fit for the state as Sinema was (aside from him not living in AZ), and the demographics have continued to shift in the Democrats favor since 2018.

[wbrocks67]

They had Clinton winning Arizona by 5 at one point in 2016, so they have always had a D Bias.  Biden is winning AZ but not by 10 points let’s not be dumb.

This pollster frequently gave McSally her best poll results in 2018 (winning outside the margin of error in some), so to say it has a Democratic bias is not accurate.

Speaking of McSally, I'm sad this poll didn't ask about the senate race. We could have perhaps seen the widest lead for Kelly yet, continuing the seats trend towards Likely Dem.

they did, they just haven't released it yet

[Gracile]

They had Clinton winning Arizona by 5 at one point in 2016, so they have always had a D Bias.  Biden is winning AZ but not by 10 points let’s not be dumb.

This pollster frequently gave McSally her best poll results in 2018 (winning outside the margin of error in some), so to say it has a Democratic bias is not accurate.

Speaking of McSally, I'm sad this poll didn't ask about the senate race. We could have perhaps seen the widest lead for Kelly yet, continuing the seats trend towards Likely Dem.

It's possible that they will release Senate numbers tomorrow (that's typically how they release their results IIRC).

[Devout Centrist]

Good news.

But I don't buy that 20% of Rs are voting for Biden there.

Also, why are pollsters not polling Jorgensen, when she's on all 50 ballots ?

Because she’s a gadfly and will get less than 1% of the vote??

[tagimaucia]

What would this mean if this happened? I don't think many of us really comprehend what this would mean.

Who knows really?  On the one hand it could be indicative of a large Biden landslide.  On the other hand it could be indicative of demographic changes specific to AZ (which we know is happening but this result would show is happening at a more rapid pace than previously thought).  

Arizona is basically 60% urban and suburban whites.  It makes sense that it would shift harder left than other battleground states.

[Sir Mohamed]

This is a bit too rosy I think, but Biden should be fine in AZ. If he wins Maricopa by more than 3-4 pts, he for sure takes these 11 EVs.

[Hope For A New Era]

Arizona is Virginia 2008 confirmed?

Seems like the same sort of out-of-nowhere large-margin flip.

[kireev]

+5 Rep Party ID and Trump +1% 2016 sample.

[Person Man]

+5 Rep Party ID and Trump +1% 2016 sample.

That could be what happens this year. I'm sure that it probably won't happen but a 10 point election is a possibility. My guess is that Biden wins by perhaps the same margin Hilary lost or Sinema won.

[CellarDoor]

What would this mean if this happened? I don't think many of us really comprehend what this would mean.

Who knows really?  On the one hand it could be indicative of a large Biden landslide.  On the other hand it could be indicative of demographic changes specific to AZ (which we know is happening but this result would show is happening at a more rapid pace than previously thought).  

Arizona is basically 60% urban and suburban whites.  It makes sense that it would shift harder left than other battleground states.

Yep.  And a relatively well-educated state.

[ON Progressive]

They had Clinton winning Arizona by 5 at one point in 2016, so they have always had a D Bias.  Biden is winning AZ but not by 10 points let’s not be dumb.

The D bias of having McSally up 7 in late October?

[Alben Barkley]

What would this mean if this happened? I don't think many of us really comprehend what this would mean.

It could mean Biden wins Texas.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I need more crosstabs. Were boaters underrepresented?

[Person Man]

I need more crosstabs. Were boaters underrepresented?

#MillionMillionaireMarch

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds have won AZ in 48, 64 and 96 and in 64 and 96 Ds won a mandate election, that's why its gonna be a mandate election, for Biden.

[VAR]

Junk poll!