AZ - OH Predictive Insights: Biden +10%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/davecatanese/status/1305438640378535936

September 8-10
600 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with August 3-4 poll.

Biden 52% (+3)
Trump 42% (-3)

[wbrocks67]

It really depends on who is getting the polling right in AZ. This is now not the first or second time we've seen Biden in the 7-10 range. Is it possible that the Biden +2-4 polls are doing the classic "underpolling" of AZ democrats/hispanics? Or is it just bad polling? I guess we'll see...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fuller release here: https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/7453540/200908%20AZPOP/AZPOP%20Presidential%20Crosstabs.pdf

Unsure/undecided 5%

[Landslide Lyndon]

It really depends on who is getting the polling right in AZ. This is now not the first or second time we've seen Biden in the 7-10 range. Is it possible that the Biden +2-4 polls are doing the classic "underpolling" of AZ democrats/hispanics? Or is it just bad polling? I guess we'll see...

There is one thing though where all pollsters agree: that Trump is mired in the low forties and Biden's lead is totally dependent of his support level.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump won AZ in 2016 due to reelection of McCain, according to my prediction, McCain was in a tough race for the GE and won, anyways, but that's how AZ has become, it was close to toppling even McCain  in 2016 and I predicted Dems to win AZ in 2016

[Tender Branson]

Good news.

But I don't buy that 20% of Rs are voting for Biden there.

Also, why are pollsters not polling Jorgensen, when she's on all 50 ballots ?

[DaleCooper]

It really depends on who is getting the polling right in AZ. This is now not the first or second time we've seen Biden in the 7-10 range. Is it possible that the Biden +2-4 polls are doing the classic "underpolling" of AZ democrats/hispanics? Or is it just bad polling? I guess we'll see...

Arizona strikes me as the kind of state that it would be a lot more difficult to overpoll Democratic support than to underpoll it so at this point I'm tending to believe that Biden really will get a good couple points beyond 50% in Arizona. And frankly, at this point, the +10 lead is getting to be less of an outlier than the 2 or 3 point AZ leads for Biden.

[DaleCooper]

Good news.

But I don't buy that 20% of Rs are voting for Biden there.

Also, why are pollsters not polling Jorgensen, when she's on all 50 ballots ?

It's because Jorgensen is so irrelevant that including her would inflate her support and make the company's own poll less accurate.

And I don't find it that hard to believe that 20% of Rs are voting Biden in Arizona. It's one of the hardest hit states in the country and unlike Florida, the vast majority of voters do blame Republicans. Once popular incumbent Republican governor Ducey is now in the 20% approval range. Combine that with Trump's admission of downplaying the virus and his pathetic hatred of McCain (and McCain's whole family endorsing Biden) and you get a rapidly accelerated trend away from the GOP in a once safe state that probably would've stuck with them a good while longer under real Republican leadership.   

[VAR]

Trump approval: 46/52
Trump fav: 46/52
Biden fav: 53/43

Maricopa: Biden 53-41 (+12)
Pima: Biden 58-40 (+18)
Rural: Tie 48-48
Hispanic/Latino: Biden 59-33 (Sinema 70-30, Clinton 61-31)

[tagimaucia]

I’ve got to think that the 4% of likely voters who are favorable of Trump but undecided/third-party in this poll eventually come home. Still, somewhere between like 51-47 and 53-46 is where I believe this race is headed if there isn’t a major trajectory change.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Good news.

But I don't buy that 20% of Rs are voting for Biden there.

Also, why are pollsters not polling Jorgensen, when she's on all 50 ballots ?

It's because Jorgensen is so irrelevant that including her would inflate her support and make the company's own poll less accurate.

And I don't find it that hard to believe that 20% of Rs are voting Biden in Arizona. It's one of the hardest hit states in the country and unlike Florida, the vast majority of voters do blame Republicans. Once popular incumbent Republican governor Ducey is now in the 20% approval range. Combine that with Trump's admission of downplaying the virus and his pathetic hatred of McCain (and McCain's whole family endorsing Biden) and you get a rapidly accelerated trend away from the GOP in a once safe state that probably would've stuck with them a good while longer under real Republican leadership.   

A lot of local Republican politicians, down to county level, have endorsed Biden. It's not only that he is a good fit for the state but also that the Arizona Republican party has gone of the deep end with Chemtrail Kelli at the helm.

[Person Man]

Good news.

But I don't buy that 20% of Rs are voting for Biden there.

Also, why are pollsters not polling Jorgensen, when she's on all 50 ballots ?

It's because Jorgensen is so irrelevant that including her would inflate her support and make the company's own poll less accurate.

And I don't find it that hard to believe that 20% of Rs are voting Biden in Arizona. It's one of the hardest hit states in the country and unlike Florida, the vast majority of voters do blame Republicans. Once popular incumbent Republican governor Ducey is now in the 20% approval range. Combine that with Trump's admission of downplaying the virus and his pathetic hatred of McCain (and McCain's whole family endorsing Biden) and you get a rapidly accelerated trend away from the GOP in a once safe state that probably would've stuck with them a good while longer under real Republican leadership.  

A lot of local Republican politicians, down to county level, have endorsed Biden. It's not only that he is a good fit for the state but also that the Arizona Republican party has gone of the deep end with Chemtrail Kelli at the helm.

How are people who are obviously schizophrenic getting a pass like this?

[vitoNova]

What a bizarre timeline. 

[BobbieMac]

Biden is going to win Arizona comfortably.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1305480491856998404

[Buzz]

They had Clinton winning Arizona by 5 at one point in 2016, so they have always had a D Bias.  Biden is winning AZ but not by 10 points let’s not be dumb.

[pbrower2a]

It looks like an outlier, but it could also indicate that Trump is in collapse mode at the least in Arizona. That could be 'only' Arizona, but this is a state that has voted for a Democratic nominee for President only once (1992, and then barely) since 1948 at the end of the New Deal Era.

The attractive young woman (Kristin Urquiza) who appeared at the Democratic National Convention and gave a convincing message about losing a beloved father to COVID-19 and looked like a high-fashion model is from Arizona.

I am not in Arizona, so I cannot know what specific, state-targeted ads are there. Her message could be perfect for Arizona. Maybe Florida and Texas, too. She looks like a high-fashion model and delivers the pitch well. That is perfect advertising.

[wbrocks67]

They had Clinton winning Arizona by 5 at one point in 2016, so they have always had a D Bias.  Biden is winning AZ but not by 10 points let’s not be dumb.

Most of their final polls (except for the very last one) had McSally winning in 2018

[tagimaucia]

Also, Hillary almost certainly was leading by a point or two in AZ at her high points in 2016 (though not by 5 I’ll grant you).

[tagimaucia]

They had Clinton winning Arizona by 5 at one point in 2016, so they have always had a D Bias.  Biden is winning AZ but not by 10 points let’s not be dumb.

Most of their final polls (except for the very last one) had McSally winning in 2018

I'm pretty sure their last poll was McSally +1?

[roxas11]

They had Clinton winning Arizona by 5 at one point in 2016, so they have always had a D Bias.  Biden is winning AZ but not by 10 points let’s not be dumb.

that poll you are talking about came out in may 2016
their last poll was released on September 2016 and they had the race tied at that point


bottom line no poll had Hillary Beating trump by 10 points in AZ by September 2016........

[wbrocks67]

They had Clinton winning Arizona by 5 at one point in 2016, so they have always had a D Bias.  Biden is winning AZ but not by 10 points let’s not be dumb.

Most of their final polls (except for the very last one) had McSally winning in 2018

I'm pretty sure their last poll was McSally +1?

I stand corrected, you are correct! OHPI's final 4 polls in 2018 all had McSally leading, including the second to last being McSally +7 and their last beign mcSally +1

So the fact they have shown Biden up every time is pretty substantial

[kph14]

I would say Biden will not win by 10 but he might get 52-53% of the vote.

[republican1993]

biden is def not ahead by ten - go trump! (biden prob up like 3-4 atm)

[GeorgiaModerate]

They had Clinton winning Arizona by 5 at one point in 2016, so they have always had a D Bias.  Biden is winning AZ but not by 10 points let’s not be dumb.

If the election had been held at the time that poll was taken (May), Clinton would certainly have won the election and could well have taken Arizona.  Polls taken months before November in a fluid race are simply not comparable with the final result.