51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm gonna do this thread; 51 days left, 51 EV prizes. I'm gonna map and analyze one a day until the election, first one is Alabama. I think it will be fairly stagnant, with a slight boost for Biden because of the senate race. Expect Biden to make modest gains in the educated counties like Shelby, Lee, Jefferson, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Madison, Mobile, etc. The black belt should be fairly stagnant due to population loss, and Trump will continue posting gains in the rurals, esp in AL 4th. Biden's overall slight improvement can be seen because the places he will be making modest improvements are growing (comparatively) to the places Trump will be gaining in.

This is going to be so much fun! Maybe each day we should just create a new thread for each state. Right now my model has Biden's chances >99.99% in AL, so it's unlikely the state will be close.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm gonna do this thread; 51 days left, 51 EV prizes. I'm gonna map and analyze one a day until the election, first one is Alabama. I think it will be fairly stagnant, with a slight boost for Biden because of the senate race. Expect Biden to make modest gains in the educated counties like Shelby, Lee, Jefferson, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Madison, Mobile, etc. The black belt should be fairly stagnant due to population loss, and Trump will continue posting gains in the rurals, esp in AL 4th. Biden's overall slight improvement can be seen because the places he will be making modest improvements are growing (comparatively) to the places Trump will be gaining in.

This is going to be so much fun! Maybe each day we should just create a new thread for each state. Right now my model has Biden's chances >99.99% in AL, so it's unlikely the state will be close.

Yeah, though I will prolly keep everything within this thread since convos about one state could last for days on end, and I don't wanna clog this board up with 10 different states on the front page being talked about at the same time.

I'm actually predicting Biden will lose a bit of ground in the black belt if anything. Rural southern blacks seem to be on borrowed time voting 90-5 Democrat, and the black belt is shrinking fast.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think it is finally Arizona's time to shine for democrats. Biden has held a modest and sturdy lead just shy of 50% in a state that frequently has the polling margin slightly more favorable to the GOP than reality would suggest. I was really conflicted about giving Trump Yuma county again, but, I ultimately did as I expect white suburbanites to ultimately hand Biden the state. It helps that he has strong running mates up and down the ballot, most notably Mark Kelly, who will almost without a doubt outrun Biden (and probably even carry Yuma).

Reasonable but I also think Biden is going to win with a plurality.

I'm personally leaning towards majority but it'll be close. In 2018, Sinema literally won with 50.0% of the vote

[ProgressiveModerate]

Montana is a state despite a near assurance of a Trump win, should swing towards Biden from 2016. Biden will be healthily gaining in every single major population zone which are not only the bulk of the state population, but the most rapidly growing parts too. Gallatin county notably will be among the heftiest. Expect slightly higher than national average third party votes in the state, though a drop from 2016. Trump may see some small improvements in the far eastern part of the state, for similar reasons as part of the Dakotas, with conservative industries like ranching and fossil fuel extraction booming there and bringing in new conservatives. Still, this is too small an area for Trump to see an improvement statewide from, especially with democrats running a strong ticket up and down the ballot in Montana this year.



+20.42 Trump to +13.77 Trump (6.65 margin swing dem)

I would argue MT swings even a bit more towards Biden

[ProgressiveModerate]

Montana is a state despite a near assurance of a Trump win, should swing towards Biden from 2016. Biden will be healthily gaining in every single major population zone which are not only the bulk of the state population, but the most rapidly growing parts too. Gallatin county notably will be among the heftiest. Expect slightly higher than national average third party votes in the state, though a drop from 2016. Trump may see some small improvements in the far eastern part of the state, for similar reasons as part of the Dakotas, with conservative industries like ranching and fossil fuel extraction booming there and bringing in new conservatives. Still, this is too small an area for Trump to see an improvement statewide from, especially with democrats running a strong ticket up and down the ballot in Montana this year.



+20.42 Trump to +13.77 Trump (6.65 margin swing dem)

I would argue MT swings even a bit more towards Biden

I mean it's possible, Trump's floor performance is prolly like a 52-44 win.

I think it could be low single digits in a very very good night for Biden. We're already seeing lots of polls showing it in the mid single digits.