51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis
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  51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis
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Author Topic: 51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis  (Read 12320 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
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« on: September 13, 2020, 07:16:45 PM »
« edited: September 24, 2020, 07:45:58 PM by Co-Chair Bagel23 »

I'm gonna do this thread; 51 days left, 51 EV prizes. I'm gonna map and analyze one a day until the election, first one is Alabama. I think it will be fairly stagnant, with a slight boost for Biden because of the senate race. Expect Biden to make modest gains in the educated counties like Shelby, Lee, Jefferson, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Madison, Mobile, etc. The black belt should be fairly stagnant due to population loss, and Trump will continue posting gains in the rurals, esp in AL 4th. Biden's overall slight improvement can be seen because the places he will be making modest improvements are growing (comparatively) to the places Trump will be gaining in.



+27.72 Trump to +25.94 Trump (1.78 margin swing dem)
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2020, 07:18:57 PM »

I'm gonna do this thread; 51 days left, 51 EV prizes. I'm gonna map and analyze one a day until the election, first one is Alabama. I think it will be fairly stagnant, with a slight boost for Biden because of the senate race. Expect Biden to make modest gains in the educated counties like Shelby, Lee, Jefferson, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Madison, Mobile, etc. The black belt should be fairly stagnant due to population loss, and Trump will continue posting gains in the rurals, esp in AL 4th. Biden's overall slight improvement can be seen because the places he will be making modest improvements are growing (comparatively) to the places Trump will be gaining in.



This is going to be so much fun! Maybe each day we should just create a new thread for each state. Right now my model has Biden's chances >99.99% in AL, so it's unlikely the state will be close.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2020, 07:21:56 PM »

I'm gonna do this thread; 51 days left, 51 EV prizes. I'm gonna map and analyze one a day until the election, first one is Alabama. I think it will be fairly stagnant, with a slight boost for Biden because of the senate race. Expect Biden to make modest gains in the educated counties like Shelby, Lee, Jefferson, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Madison, Mobile, etc. The black belt should be fairly stagnant due to population loss, and Trump will continue posting gains in the rurals, esp in AL 4th. Biden's overall slight improvement can be seen because the places he will be making modest improvements are growing (comparatively) to the places Trump will be gaining in.



This is going to be so much fun! Maybe each day we should just create a new thread for each state. Right now my model has Biden's chances >99.99% in AL, so it's unlikely the state will be close.

Yeah, though I will prolly keep everything within this thread since convos about one state could last for days on end, and I don't wanna clog this board up with 10 different states on the front page being talked about at the same time.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2020, 07:28:20 PM »

I'm gonna do this thread; 51 days left, 51 EV prizes. I'm gonna map and analyze one a day until the election, first one is Alabama. I think it will be fairly stagnant, with a slight boost for Biden because of the senate race. Expect Biden to make modest gains in the educated counties like Shelby, Lee, Jefferson, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Madison, Mobile, etc. The black belt should be fairly stagnant due to population loss, and Trump will continue posting gains in the rurals, esp in AL 4th. Biden's overall slight improvement can be seen because the places he will be making modest improvements are growing (comparatively) to the places Trump will be gaining in.



This is going to be so much fun! Maybe each day we should just create a new thread for each state. Right now my model has Biden's chances >99.99% in AL, so it's unlikely the state will be close.

Yeah, though I will prolly keep everything within this thread since convos about one state could last for days on end, and I don't wanna clog this board up with 10 different states on the front page being talked about at the same time.

I'm actually predicting Biden will lose a bit of ground in the black belt if anything. Rural southern blacks seem to be on borrowed time voting 90-5 Democrat, and the black belt is shrinking fast.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2020, 07:43:03 PM »

I'm gonna do this thread; 51 days left, 51 EV prizes. I'm gonna map and analyze one a day until the election, first one is Alabama. I think it will be fairly stagnant, with a slight boost for Biden because of the senate race. Expect Biden to make modest gains in the educated counties like Shelby, Lee, Jefferson, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Madison, Mobile, etc. The black belt should be fairly stagnant due to population loss, and Trump will continue posting gains in the rurals, esp in AL 4th. Biden's overall slight improvement can be seen because the places he will be making modest improvements are growing (comparatively) to the places Trump will be gaining in.



This is going to be so much fun! Maybe each day we should just create a new thread for each state. Right now my model has Biden's chances >99.99% in AL, so it's unlikely the state will be close.

Yeah, though I will prolly keep everything within this thread since convos about one state could last for days on end, and I don't wanna clog this board up with 10 different states on the front page being talked about at the same time.

I'm actually predicting Biden will lose a bit of ground in the black belt if anything. Rural southern blacks seem to be on borrowed time voting 90-5 Democrat, and the black belt is shrinking fast.

Very possible, I felt that to some extent as well, that's why I did not bump Hale up to 60%+ for Biden even though Obama did so twice. Montgomery is the exception to this.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2020, 05:56:50 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2020, 07:47:39 PM by Co-Chair Bagel23 »

Here we got Alaska. I will be honest, I had little clue what I was even doing. It is such a complicated state with wild swings, as well as how they report results, and some of those boroughs and census areas had in excess of 25% third party vote share in 2016. This is one of the few states I am not confident at all about predicting much. Regardless, Trump should still be able to win it by a noticeable margin, despite weird polling, as it is a Likely R state. I could be really wrong at the same time though, I was very uncomfortable giving Trump Anchorage again. Anyways, big thanks to RRHElections for this fantastic article that helped me make the map. https://t.co/TUkfIjM3Ql?amp=1

Ps. I do expect the third party vote share to decrease this time from 2016.



+14.73 Trump to +11.27 Trump (3.46 margin swing dem)
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2020, 05:31:49 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2020, 07:49:07 PM by Co-Chair Bagel23 »

I think it is finally Arizona's time to shine for democrats. Biden has held a modest and sturdy lead just shy of 50% in a state that frequently has the polling margin slightly more favorable to the GOP than reality would suggest. I was really conflicted about giving Trump Yuma county again, but, I ultimately did as I expect white suburbanites to ultimately hand Biden the state. It helps that he has strong running mates up and down the ballot, most notably Mark Kelly, who will almost without a doubt outrun Biden (and probably even carry Yuma).



+3.5 Trump to +2.31 Biden (5.81 margin swing dem)
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« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2020, 06:34:31 PM »

I think it is finally Arizona's time to shine for democrats. Biden has held a modest and sturdy lead just shy of 50% in a state that frequently has the polling margin slightly more favorable to the GOP than reality would suggest. I was really conflicted about giving Trump Yuma county again, but, I ultimately did as I expect white suburbanites to ultimately hand Biden the state. It helps that he has strong running mates up and down the ballot, most notably Mark Kelly, who will almost without a doubt outrun Biden (and probably even carry Yuma).



I agree Biden wins but I think it'll be a plurality, like 49-48 or something along those lines.
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Storr
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« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2020, 06:43:37 PM »

I think it is finally Arizona's time to shine for democrats. Biden has held a modest and sturdy lead just shy of 50% in a state that frequently has the polling margin slightly more favorable to the GOP than reality would suggest. I was really conflicted about giving Trump Yuma county again, but, I ultimately did as I expect white suburbanites to ultimately hand Biden the state. It helps that he has strong running mates up and down the ballot, most notably Mark Kelly, who will almost without a doubt outrun Biden (and probably even carry Yuma).


Sunbelt Stack NUT.
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big data boi
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« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2020, 08:37:47 PM »

I think it is finally Arizona's time to shine for democrats. Biden has held a modest and sturdy lead just shy of 50% in a state that frequently has the polling margin slightly more favorable to the GOP than reality would suggest. I was really conflicted about giving Trump Yuma county again, but, I ultimately did as I expect white suburbanites to ultimately hand Biden the state. It helps that he has strong running mates up and down the ballot, most notably Mark Kelly, who will almost without a doubt outrun Biden (and probably even carry Yuma).



Reasonable but I also think Biden is going to win with a plurality.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2020, 08:40:12 PM »

I think it is finally Arizona's time to shine for democrats. Biden has held a modest and sturdy lead just shy of 50% in a state that frequently has the polling margin slightly more favorable to the GOP than reality would suggest. I was really conflicted about giving Trump Yuma county again, but, I ultimately did as I expect white suburbanites to ultimately hand Biden the state. It helps that he has strong running mates up and down the ballot, most notably Mark Kelly, who will almost without a doubt outrun Biden (and probably even carry Yuma).



Reasonable but I also think Biden is going to win with a plurality.

I'm personally leaning towards majority but it'll be close. In 2018, Sinema literally won with 50.0% of the vote
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« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2020, 09:08:11 PM »

I think NE & ME could be factors in this election even though  NE2 & ME2 are the only likely close races. The states themselves will likely be called early, NE for Trump and ME for Biden, obviously.
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Bomster
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« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2020, 10:18:32 PM »

I think it is finally Arizona's time to shine for democrats. Biden has held a modest and sturdy lead just shy of 50% in a state that frequently has the polling margin slightly more favorable to the GOP than reality would suggest. I was really conflicted about giving Trump Yuma county again, but, I ultimately did as I expect white suburbanites to ultimately hand Biden the state. It helps that he has strong running mates up and down the ballot, most notably Mark Kelly, who will almost without a doubt outrun Biden (and probably even carry Yuma).


Having grown up in Yuma I can confirm it definitely feels like it’s likely to go to Trump. Trump campaign paraphernalia is not uncommon in the form of flags and bumper stickers and throughout high school young Hispanic men (I am one as well) were more likely to be Republican than democrat.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2020, 05:15:02 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2020, 07:50:59 PM by Co-Chair Bagel23 »

Arkansas should be pretty stagnant compared to 2016. Trump should improve modestly pretty much everywhere outside of little rock, fayetteville, and fort smith metros, where the opposite is likely to occur. The rest of the state is larger than these areas combined, but the growth is largely concentrated in the areas Biden should improve in. However, Arkansas had a surprisingly high number of third party voting for a southern state in 2016, mostly conservative, it should be less so this year, and may cause Trump's margin to improve just a smidge overall.



+26.92 Trump to +28.01 Trump (1.09 margin swing rep)
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Bomster
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« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2020, 06:41:34 PM »

Arkansas should be pretty stagnant compared to 2016. Trump should improve modestly pretty much everywhere outside of little rock, fayetteville, and fort smith metros, where the opposite is likely to occur. The rest of the state is larger than these areas combined, but the growth is largely concentrated in the areas Biden should improve in. However, Arkansas had a surprisingly high number of third party voting for a southern state in 2016, mostly conservative, it should be less so this year, and may cause Trump's margin to improve just a smidge overall.


How do you calculate these?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2020, 07:31:34 PM »

Arkansas should be pretty stagnant compared to 2016. Trump should improve modestly pretty much everywhere outside of little rock, fayetteville, and fort smith metros, where the opposite is likely to occur. The rest of the state is larger than these areas combined, but the growth is largely concentrated in the areas Biden should improve in. However, Arkansas had a surprisingly high number of third party voting for a southern state in 2016, mostly conservative, it should be less so this year, and may cause Trump's margin to improve just a smidge overall.


How do you calculate these?

Right, good question. So I look at the total votes cast in the state in the past three presidential elections, as well as how much the population has been growing/shrinking over the past few years, and I take a guess of what the turnout will be this time based off of all that. I then plug the total number of the turnout I guess into a calculator, convert the percentage I expect Trump to get in the state into a decimal, multiply, get the result, either round up that number or round it down based on the decimal, and repeat the same process for Biden.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2020, 05:40:28 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2020, 07:52:21 PM by Co-Chair Bagel23 »

California is obviously a safe Biden state that will go big for him, but there were some tough calls internally for me to make at least. Giving Trump Butte county again was hard, as was putting Biden over 80 in Marin. However, the toplines should not shift that dramatically. It would not surprise me if he improved a couple points from this margin from selecting Kamala Harris, especially in the bay area, however I already have that and Socal moving modestly in Biden's direction regardless, with the rural areas moving slightly more towards Trump. One thing to keep in mind is some counties here have a darker share for Trump or Biden this time than 2016, though it does not necessarily mean they are doing that much better. There were a lot of third party voters that should go down this year, and both parties were on the verge of breaching the next color shade in some counties, which is almost inevitable to occur this time.



+30.11 Clinton to +31.67 Biden (1.56 margin swing dem)
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2020, 05:47:17 PM »

If Biden is truly close in CA-50 as that SurveyUSA poll showed, I can see him getting 60% in San Diego County.

Besides that, solid map
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #18 on: September 17, 2020, 05:57:42 PM »

If Biden is truly close in CA-50 as that SurveyUSA poll showed, I can see him getting 60% in San Diego County.

Besides that, solid map

I really really struggled with that, I had it like 59-37 Biden. Would not surprise me at all if he did it, esp with kamala.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: September 17, 2020, 06:03:55 PM »

If Biden is truly close in CA-50 as that SurveyUSA poll showed, I can see him getting 60% in San Diego County.

Besides that, solid map

I really really struggled with that, I had it like 59-37 Biden. Would not surprise me at all if he did it, esp with kamala.

Still, it's incredible how much San Diego has changed. 10 years ago, Jerry Brown lost it by nearly 6%

It gets lost in the shuffle compared to Orange County, but San Diego's political transformation is equally fascinating to me
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #20 on: September 17, 2020, 06:36:18 PM »

Dubya won SD solidly in 2004 as well.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #21 on: September 17, 2020, 06:47:34 PM »
« Edited: September 18, 2020, 01:55:56 AM by Monstro »

Kamala Harris never won it in 2010 & 2014. She was below 40% in 2010 & within 5 points in 2014. 6 years later, she may help Biden get to 60% here
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2020, 04:45:21 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2020, 07:53:31 PM by Co-Chair Bagel23 »

It is questionable whether Colorado is even a swing state this cycle, Biden will win it almost without a doubt. He should also see a decent improvement in the whole swath of heavily populated area not only in the Denver Metro area, but surrounding population zones ie. Weld, larimer, etc. Trump may improve a smidge in the rurals, if anything just on third party right wing votes being less this year. Despite this, following the western state trend, Colorado should probably cast more third party ballots than the national average again. The ski resort counties may swing a little bit towards Biden, but nothing crazy. There were not too many hard calls in the state, and should also provide a nice senate gain for democrats this year as well.



+4.91 Clinton to +8.93 Biden (4.02 margin swing dem)
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woodley park
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« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2020, 05:24:13 PM »

I'm gonna do this thread; 51 days left, 51 EV prizes. I'm gonna map and analyze one a day until the election, first one is Alabama. I think it will be fairly stagnant, with a slight boost for Biden because of the senate race. Expect Biden to make modest gains in the educated counties like Shelby, Lee, Jefferson, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Madison, Mobile, etc. The black belt should be fairly stagnant due to population loss, and Trump will continue posting gains in the rurals, esp in AL 4th. Biden's overall slight improvement can be seen because the places he will be making modest improvements are growing (comparatively) to the places Trump will be gaining in.



As someone very unfamiliar with the political geography of the South, where are black voters in central Alabama largely headed to?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #24 on: September 18, 2020, 05:33:28 PM »

I'm gonna do this thread; 51 days left, 51 EV prizes. I'm gonna map and analyze one a day until the election, first one is Alabama. I think it will be fairly stagnant, with a slight boost for Biden because of the senate race. Expect Biden to make modest gains in the educated counties like Shelby, Lee, Jefferson, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Madison, Mobile, etc. The black belt should be fairly stagnant due to population loss, and Trump will continue posting gains in the rurals, esp in AL 4th. Biden's overall slight improvement can be seen because the places he will be making modest improvements are growing (comparatively) to the places Trump will be gaining in.



As someone very unfamiliar with the political geography of the South, where are black voters in central Alabama largely headed to?

The degree of decline of the black population in the rural Black Belt is not that high, at least as a percentage of the population (white people are leaving the area, too). But most departures by black residents are to cities, definitely with Montgomery and Birmingham as top destinations. Atlanta is probably near the top of the list of destinations, and Mobile, Huntsville and other cities across the South round it out. I am sure a few leave the South entirely if they have close family elsewhere, but that's not the norm.
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