51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis

[Hope For A New Era]

It is questionable whether Colorado is even a swing state this cycle, Biden will win it almost without a doubt. He should also see a decent improvement in the whole swath of heavily populated area not only in the Denver Metro area, but surrounding population zones ie. Weld, larimer, etc. Trump may improve a smidge in the rurals, if anything just on third party right wing votes being less this year. Despite this, following the western state trend, Colorado should probably cast more third party ballots than the national average again. The ski resort counties may swing a little bit towards Biden, but nothing crazy. There were not too many hard calls in the state, and should also provide a nice senate gain for democrats this year as well.

A bit of a late reply, but I think Douglas County is a very likely flip. It's basically Loudoun copy-pasted into Colorado.

[Hope For A New Era]

Notably, Vigo county will almost without a doubt lose its bellwether status, as even in a hypothetical national landslide for Biden, would still in all likelihood go comfortably for Trump. Sad to see the end of an era like that, but it is what it is.

Donnelly won it in 2018, so a surprise Biden win is possible. It would be a last hurrah, though.

Really it's a bit odd that the county has drifted so far right. It's a college county.