51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis

[Real Texan Politics]

I think it is finally Arizona's time to shine for democrats. Biden has held a modest and sturdy lead just shy of 50% in a state that frequently has the polling margin slightly more favorable to the GOP than reality would suggest. I was really conflicted about giving Trump Yuma county again, but, I ultimately did as I expect white suburbanites to ultimately hand Biden the state. It helps that he has strong running mates up and down the ballot, most notably Mark Kelly, who will almost without a doubt outrun Biden (and probably even carry Yuma).

I agree Biden wins but I think it'll be a plurality, like 49-48 or something along those lines.

[Real Texan Politics]

Florida, you are a disappointing heartbreaker, and I refuse to let you do that to me again with that level of magnitude, so I am indeed giving you to Trump again. Miami Dade county will be better for Trump than last time, and much of the panhandle should continue its slow and depressing march to the right. Can we please just give Matt Gaetz's congressional district to Alabama and call it a day? Regardless, Biden should be able to modestly improve in much of the rest of the state, specifically in red leaning counties that are not as blood red as the panhandle. I however would not be surprised if Biden wins the state, and I am really hoping that this map is wrong come election time.

Florida gives me the biggest brainfart in my predictions. Literally the last 3 times I changed my prediction, all I did was flip Florida, and I still can't make up my mind about who's winning it.

This could really turn into another Bush vs Gore scenario, and I always thought North Carolina was gonna be the closest state in the election.

[Real Texan Politics]

New Mexico? More like Blue Mexico. Any chance (which was already next to 0% to begin with) of Trump winning the state, as per former Trump campaign senior adviser for data and digital operations (and arrested wife beater) Brad Parscale's dreams, has quickly dissipated into a safe D rating. People who voted for Gary Johnson here can be expected to break even more towards Biden than in other states, as Biden swings most areas of the state modestly towards him (especially Bernanillo and the northern solid D counties) Trump may improve a little out east in the areas with no hope for democrats, and an oil industry only concentrating into more red areas. This will not be enough to swing the state towards him though. Neither candidate is a particularly strong fit for the state, though I may be underestimating Biden by a bit. Keep in mind that a lot of the shades shifting darker for Trump do not necessarily indicate margin improvement, rather being so close to the next shading group which will inevitably bump him over in some places with less third party vote this time.



+8.22 Clinton to +12.29 Biden (4.07 margin swing dem)

I still think Valencia goes to Biden. Yes it has the longest streak of voting for the election winner but the main reason Trump did well here was the third party vote. If most of the Gary voters vote for Biden, I could see Valencia flipping ever so slightly.

[Real Texan Politics]

Curious about your North Carolina analysis. Hopefully that'll make predicting who wins it easier for me.

[Real Texan Politics]

My state tomorrow! Looking forward to your analysis for Williamson, Tarrant, Jefferson, and Nueces.

[Real Texan Politics]

My state tomorrow! Looking forward to your analysis for Williamson, Tarrant, Jefferson, and Nueces.

Our state lol. I'll have Biden winning all but jeffco, and im most unsure about tarrant county. I'll have Trump winning statewide with a bare majority like 50.something to 48.

I have Biden winning Jefferson and Nueces by hairs. Trump wins Tarrant by a hair and Williamson by an even thinner hair (could be the closest county in Texas percentage wise). I didn't mention Hays on that list since it's pretty much a guaranteed flip now. Also I don't know why I mentioned hair so much but I'd expect those 4 counties (not Hays) to be the closest major counties in the state.

[Real Texan Politics]

Vermont is a state that is almost guaranteed to swing substantially towards Biden. There was a large third party vote there that leaned left in 2016 that will largely be gone this time, much to the benefit of Biden in this already Safe D state. Improvement should be fairly uniform, with the exception of northern and northeastern Vermont, which are tougher areas for dems these days. Despite this, there will be hardly any areas at all that will move towards Trump in the state, only flukey little towns.



+25.96 Clinton to +30.12 Biden (4.16 margin swing dem)

Will Bernie still get a sizable amount of write-in votes?

[Real Texan Politics]

So 3 more states plus DC, and 3/4 are safe for either candidate.

This was a fun thread, looking forward to seeing how accurate (or maybe inaccurate for all we know) you were!