51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis

[NOVA Green]

Hi Bagel---

Just saw this thread and popped in to take a peak...

1.) Really like what you're doing here man.... clearly a massive investment of labor hours and work on this project.

2.) Also Gotta say---  As a poster when you first jointed Atlas / TE you caught a lotta flack from tons of folks for various reasons, but this is clearly an *effort thread*, and shows how regular Atlas posters gradually evolve over several years of posting history, even though many of us when we first joined the Forum might have been a bit too keen to establish "street cred" early on as part of establishing our own "brand"....

3.) Haven't had a chance to more fully peruse your extensive posts in detail on this thread, but I like the format and visuals in terms of how you present your analysis /data, and will likely be replying here and there.

4.) Overall the concept reminds me a bit of those "X-Mas" calendar things from when I was a kid, where we would open up one box at a time on a day as part of the "countdown"...

Awesome concept--- fun as well for all of us Atlas Geeks!

[NOVA Green]

I am quite bullish on Iowa for Biden. I could be quite off here, but I think we are in for a good night in the hawkeye state, as Biden substantially claws back. Democrats are targeting this state well this time, the polling looks much better, and national clues about the climb amongst white voters for Biden would be expected to take place in a ground zero state like this. Biden makes substantial gains in the blue strongholds, especially Des Moines area, and claws back a little bit in the rural northeast. Another bold take is I expect the heavy red northwest to swing a little towards Biden, with the rest of the state being fairly stagnant, but the very south central part might go a bit more towards Trump. This is a very exciting state to watch, although Trump should be expected to still remain the victor despite all of this. The state is simply so white, and lower in education, and swung so hard towards the republicans, that that brute strength alone will probably be enough for Trump to hold in. In addition, recent polling has slightly over polled democrat performances in 2016 and 2018 there.



+9.41 Trump to +3.32 Trump (6.09 margin swing dem)

What are your thoughts about Dallas County?

It would seem to be a logical place for a potential DEM flip in 2020 because of demographics and relatively close IA recent polling...

[NOVA Green]

I think that you're being way too bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN counties and his overall margins. Where things stand now, I wouldn't expect anything less than Biden+8-9 statewide in MN.

Ok, we could argue on the 8-9 statewide thing but I don't think im being bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN. I have Trump winning Anoka by like 1 point, losing Hennepin by like 40, Dakota by like 10, Washington by like 8, Ramsey by slightly over 40, etc.

What kind of modelling are you using?

I mean we all know there are no such things as Universal Swings...

Not being a contrarian, and like what you are doing Bagel and it's really easy to pick apart State by State, County by County (not my intention at all)...

Really easy to do that, but much less easy than to present your quality predictions for every county in every state as part of an Election Countdown!

Pretty cool, but gun to head Anoka County flips in 2020...   

Darts on dartboard with fast moving conditions also create a fixed picture of time and space, maybe even in the 3rd and 4th Dimension.

So as you move through this epic series (Extremely HQ Visuals and maps). Balls to the Walls kinda zone, any bandwidth to readjust modelling along the way?

Love what you are doing here.

[NOVA Green]

I think that you're being way too bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN counties and his overall margins. Where things stand now, I wouldn't expect anything less than Biden+8-9 statewide in MN.

Ok, we could argue on the 8-9 statewide thing but I don't think im being bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN. I have Trump winning Anoka by like 1 point, losing Hennepin by like 40, Dakota by like 10, Washington by like 8, Ramsey by slightly over 40, etc.

What kind of modelling are you using?

I mean we all know there are no such things as Universal Swings...

Not being a contrarian, and like what you are doing Bagel and it's really easy to pick apart State by State, County by County (not my intention at all)...

Really easy to do that, but much less easy than to present your quality predictions for every county in every state as part of an Election Countdown!

Pretty cool, but gun to head Anoka County flips in 2020...    

Darts on dartboard with fast moving conditions also create a fixed picture of time and space, maybe even in the 3rd and 4th Dimension.

So as you move through this epic series (Extremely HQ Visuals and maps). Balls to the Walls kinda zone, any bandwidth to readjust modelling along the way?

Love what you are doing here.

nothing uber scientific, mostly just 08 to 16 trends with a brief 18 looksie. Very possible, I have Trump winning it like 49-48 only so it would not surprise me at all. If I have any substantial changes of mind before the election, I will redo them, but I haven’t had any of those yet.

MI Anglo Seniors in MI appear to have recent swung hard towards Biden in recent polls...

If so, why wouldn't some of the most Anglo Senior Counties in MI start to look more towards flip zones?

Again darts on dartboards, but Biden does appear to be performing extremely well among Anglo Seniors, especially White Catholic and European Ethnics.....

IDK about White Gen-exers in Macomb County, but typical pattern of UAW workers was to buy a 2nd home (or cabin up on a lake), which essentially became your retirement home, while you sell your house in Metro MFG cities in order to be closer to fishing, hunting, boating, in an extremely beautiful part of the Midwest.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon is safe D for the 2020 presidential and senate races, do not let anyone tell you otherwise. With that being said, it won't be a phenomenal result for democrats. Biden should be expect to improve by a bit due to the national environment, but not too much else. This will mostly come from the greater Portland area, especially with third party consolidation being a statewide phenomenon. Trump should improve in the rural east by a bit, and manage to stall out in the rest of the state, if not even improve a bit on the wwc coast. The state is quite immune to swings lately, and has been incredibly steady margin wise over the past several cycles, especially when compared to other states. Do not expect anything crazy out of it this cycle either.



+10.98 Clinton to +12.92 Biden (1.94 margin swing dem)

You missed Marion County in your Model....

Also Statewide Biden won by +16.1% (+5.1% DEM Swing).

My assumption is your model underestimated how many 3rd Party Voters would Vote Biden and/or the impact of Automatic Voter Registration through the Oregon DMV between '16 and '20.

So some of your DEM and PUB County shading was slightly off in a few spots:
(Trump was less than 50% in TLMK, PLK, WSC).
(Biden >60% Lane)

(These are naturally circumstances a bit unique to your model compared to many other states).

Still, despite my nit-picking, you had the brass monkeys perform your election countdown, and did an awesome job overall on calls!!!

Props Bagel-----