51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis

[Bomster]

I think it is finally Arizona's time to shine for democrats. Biden has held a modest and sturdy lead just shy of 50% in a state that frequently has the polling margin slightly more favorable to the GOP than reality would suggest. I was really conflicted about giving Trump Yuma county again, but, I ultimately did as I expect white suburbanites to ultimately hand Biden the state. It helps that he has strong running mates up and down the ballot, most notably Mark Kelly, who will almost without a doubt outrun Biden (and probably even carry Yuma).

Having grown up in Yuma I can confirm it definitely feels like it’s likely to go to Trump. Trump campaign paraphernalia is not uncommon in the form of flags and bumper stickers and throughout high school young Hispanic men (I am one as well) were more likely to be Republican than democrat.

[Bomster]

Arkansas should be pretty stagnant compared to 2016. Trump should improve modestly pretty much everywhere outside of little rock, fayetteville, and fort smith metros, where the opposite is likely to occur. The rest of the state is larger than these areas combined, but the growth is largely concentrated in the areas Biden should improve in. However, Arkansas had a surprisingly high number of third party voting for a southern state in 2016, mostly conservative, it should be less so this year, and may cause Trump's margin to improve just a smidge overall.

How do you calculate these?

[Bomster]

Do you take into account third party vote?

[Bomster]

Do you take into account third party vote?

Yessir, I do. I gave a total of 2,803,442 ballots cast in Indiana. 2,747,653 for Trump+Biden, and 55,789 for others.

How do you calculate third party votes? That's something I'm having a hard time with.

[Bomster]

Idaho is also one of the harder states for me to guess. Biden may improve just a smidge on Hillary's loss margin due to the national environment, state trend, as well as him being a good fit for Idaho while Trump is not, but there was just so much third party right wing vote in 2016 that will be less this year, and a lot of it is bound to go to Trump, so that kind of should mute things out a lot. Trump should improve quite a bit in the southeastern rurals due to this, though Biden will probably improve a bit in the Boise area to hold fairly even.


You got this margin nearly spot on.
+31.77 Trump to +30.78 Trump (0.99 margin swing dem)