51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm gonna do this thread; 51 days left, 51 EV prizes. I'm gonna map and analyze one a day until the election, first one is Alabama. I think it will be fairly stagnant, with a slight boost for Biden because of the senate race. Expect Biden to make modest gains in the educated counties like Shelby, Lee, Jefferson, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Madison, Mobile, etc. The black belt should be fairly stagnant due to population loss, and Trump will continue posting gains in the rurals, esp in AL 4th. Biden's overall slight improvement can be seen because the places he will be making modest improvements are growing (comparatively) to the places Trump will be gaining in.



+27.72 Trump to +25.94 Trump (1.78 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm gonna do this thread; 51 days left, 51 EV prizes. I'm gonna map and analyze one a day until the election, first one is Alabama. I think it will be fairly stagnant, with a slight boost for Biden because of the senate race. Expect Biden to make modest gains in the educated counties like Shelby, Lee, Jefferson, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Madison, Mobile, etc. The black belt should be fairly stagnant due to population loss, and Trump will continue posting gains in the rurals, esp in AL 4th. Biden's overall slight improvement can be seen because the places he will be making modest improvements are growing (comparatively) to the places Trump will be gaining in.

This is going to be so much fun! Maybe each day we should just create a new thread for each state. Right now my model has Biden's chances >99.99% in AL, so it's unlikely the state will be close.

Yeah, though I will prolly keep everything within this thread since convos about one state could last for days on end, and I don't wanna clog this board up with 10 different states on the front page being talked about at the same time.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm gonna do this thread; 51 days left, 51 EV prizes. I'm gonna map and analyze one a day until the election, first one is Alabama. I think it will be fairly stagnant, with a slight boost for Biden because of the senate race. Expect Biden to make modest gains in the educated counties like Shelby, Lee, Jefferson, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Madison, Mobile, etc. The black belt should be fairly stagnant due to population loss, and Trump will continue posting gains in the rurals, esp in AL 4th. Biden's overall slight improvement can be seen because the places he will be making modest improvements are growing (comparatively) to the places Trump will be gaining in.

This is going to be so much fun! Maybe each day we should just create a new thread for each state. Right now my model has Biden's chances >99.99% in AL, so it's unlikely the state will be close.

Yeah, though I will prolly keep everything within this thread since convos about one state could last for days on end, and I don't wanna clog this board up with 10 different states on the front page being talked about at the same time.

I'm actually predicting Biden will lose a bit of ground in the black belt if anything. Rural southern blacks seem to be on borrowed time voting 90-5 Democrat, and the black belt is shrinking fast.

Very possible, I felt that to some extent as well, that's why I did not bump Hale up to 60%+ for Biden even though Obama did so twice. Montgomery is the exception to this.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Here we got Alaska. I will be honest, I had little clue what I was even doing. It is such a complicated state with wild swings, as well as how they report results, and some of those boroughs and census areas had in excess of 25% third party vote share in 2016. This is one of the few states I am not confident at all about predicting much. Regardless, Trump should still be able to win it by a noticeable margin, despite weird polling, as it is a Likely R state. I could be really wrong at the same time though, I was very uncomfortable giving Trump Anchorage again. Anyways, big thanks to RRHElections for this fantastic article that helped me make the map. https://t.co/TUkfIjM3Ql?amp=1

Ps. I do expect the third party vote share to decrease this time from 2016.



+14.73 Trump to +11.27 Trump (3.46 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think it is finally Arizona's time to shine for democrats. Biden has held a modest and sturdy lead just shy of 50% in a state that frequently has the polling margin slightly more favorable to the GOP than reality would suggest. I was really conflicted about giving Trump Yuma county again, but, I ultimately did as I expect white suburbanites to ultimately hand Biden the state. It helps that he has strong running mates up and down the ballot, most notably Mark Kelly, who will almost without a doubt outrun Biden (and probably even carry Yuma).



+3.5 Trump to +2.31 Biden (5.81 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Arkansas should be pretty stagnant compared to 2016. Trump should improve modestly pretty much everywhere outside of little rock, fayetteville, and fort smith metros, where the opposite is likely to occur. The rest of the state is larger than these areas combined, but the growth is largely concentrated in the areas Biden should improve in. However, Arkansas had a surprisingly high number of third party voting for a southern state in 2016, mostly conservative, it should be less so this year, and may cause Trump's margin to improve just a smidge overall.



+26.92 Trump to +28.01 Trump (1.09 margin swing rep)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Arkansas should be pretty stagnant compared to 2016. Trump should improve modestly pretty much everywhere outside of little rock, fayetteville, and fort smith metros, where the opposite is likely to occur. The rest of the state is larger than these areas combined, but the growth is largely concentrated in the areas Biden should improve in. However, Arkansas had a surprisingly high number of third party voting for a southern state in 2016, mostly conservative, it should be less so this year, and may cause Trump's margin to improve just a smidge overall.

How do you calculate these?

Right, good question. So I look at the total votes cast in the state in the past three presidential elections, as well as how much the population has been growing/shrinking over the past few years, and I take a guess of what the turnout will be this time based off of all that. I then plug the total number of the turnout I guess into a calculator, convert the percentage I expect Trump to get in the state into a decimal, multiply, get the result, either round up that number or round it down based on the decimal, and repeat the same process for Biden.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

California is obviously a safe Biden state that will go big for him, but there were some tough calls internally for me to make at least. Giving Trump Butte county again was hard, as was putting Biden over 80 in Marin. However, the toplines should not shift that dramatically. It would not surprise me if he improved a couple points from this margin from selecting Kamala Harris, especially in the bay area, however I already have that and Socal moving modestly in Biden's direction regardless, with the rural areas moving slightly more towards Trump. One thing to keep in mind is some counties here have a darker share for Trump or Biden this time than 2016, though it does not necessarily mean they are doing that much better. There were a lot of third party voters that should go down this year, and both parties were on the verge of breaching the next color shade in some counties, which is almost inevitable to occur this time.



+30.11 Clinton to +31.67 Biden (1.56 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Biden is truly close in CA-50 as that SurveyUSA poll showed, I can see him getting 60% in San Diego County.

Besides that, solid map

I really really struggled with that, I had it like 59-37 Biden. Would not surprise me at all if he did it, esp with kamala.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It is questionable whether Colorado is even a swing state this cycle, Biden will win it almost without a doubt. He should also see a decent improvement in the whole swath of heavily populated area not only in the Denver Metro area, but surrounding population zones ie. Weld, larimer, etc. Trump may improve a smidge in the rurals, if anything just on third party right wing votes being less this year. Despite this, following the western state trend, Colorado should probably cast more third party ballots than the national average again. The ski resort counties may swing a little bit towards Biden, but nothing crazy. There were not too many hard calls in the state, and should also provide a nice senate gain for democrats this year as well.



+4.91 Clinton to +8.93 Biden (4.02 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm going to be rather interested in the swing state prihections. Especially ones like Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, etc...

ill give u little previews . As of now im planning on mapping around +4 biden in mn +2 biden in wi, +1 Trump in fl

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Connecticut is unlikely to move massively in either direction, although it should be expected that Biden swing it back a little bit margin wise from 2016. Fairfield county is the largest and only growing county in the state, and its near inevitable left swing this time should be considered the centerpiece of the reason why the state will be a bit better for Biden than Hillary. Trump can possibly continue to mildly improve in some areas, most notably Litchfield and Windham counties, but the former of which is substantially bigger, is bleeding population at among the highest rates in the state. Trump may also continue to mildly gain in the mill towns surrounding new haven, but they are also hemorrhaging population as well. The only shade changes from 2016 are Tolland and Hartford counties, which may not mean a large improvement for Biden, as Hillary was so close to 50 and 60 respectively, and it is likely that less third party vote this year manages to at the very least nudge Biden right into those new shadings.



+13.64 Clinton to +15.72 Biden (2.08 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It is questionable whether Colorado is even a swing state this cycle, Biden will win it almost without a doubt. He should also see a decent improvement in the whole swath of heavily populated area not only in the Denver Metro area, but surrounding population zones ie. Weld, larimer, etc. Trump may improve a smidge in the rurals, if anything just on third party right wing votes being less this year. Despite this, following the western state trend, Colorado should probably cast more third party ballots than the national average again. The ski resort counties may swing a little bit towards Biden, but nothing crazy. There were not too many hard calls in the state, and should also provide a nice senate gain for democrats this year as well.

A bit of a late reply, but I think Douglas County is a very likely flip. It's basically Loudoun copy-pasted into Colorado.

Maybe years later on down the line, but even Polis lost it by well over 15 points as he was winning by well over 10 points statewide.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

There has been some talk of Delaware moving to the right, and that can be debated back and forth, however that must be tossed aside this election for reasons I do not even need to state. Biden will see a substantial swing across the state and manage to flip back Kent county with ease. Pretty much every part of the state will move towards him from 2016, especially when aided by running with a strong ticket up and down the ballot in the state (and a crazy qanon opponent for senate), democrats are set to outperform usual numbers in the state in 2020.



+11.37 Clinton to +19.92 Biden (8.55 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Florida, you are a disappointing heartbreaker, and I refuse to let you do that to me again with that level of magnitude, so I am indeed giving you to Trump again. Miami Dade county will be better for Trump than last time, and much of the panhandle should continue its slow and depressing march to the right. Can we please just give Matt Gaetz's congressional district to Alabama and call it a day? Regardless, Biden should be able to modestly improve in much of the rest of the state, specifically in red leaning counties that are not as blood red as the panhandle. I however would not be surprised if Biden wins the state, and I am really hoping that this map is wrong come election time.



+1.20 Trump to +0.19 Trump (1.01 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Georgia will be a close but hard state as always, and Biden does still have a chance of winning it. However, undecideds in the south tend to break republican, and it is still a lean R state that has been an incredibly tough nut, so with that, I will give it to Trump again. Despite this, the gap should continue to close even further, and this is a prime target for now and especially the future. Biden will continue the substantial gains in the Atlanta metro area as well as a few smaller others ie. Augusta, Savannah, Athens, etc. however, Trump should see moderate movement in his direction in almost all other parts of the state, probably enough to keep it in his column. I really want to place emphasis on the high likelyhood that Biden will romp in the Atlanta area, and likely carry GA 6th and 7th, and they should vote democrat for congress as well. Not to sound too deranged, but the Georgia GOP will do everything they possibly can to keep a grip on the state, and a flip will not be a walk in the park.



+5.09 Trump to +2.52 Trump (2.57 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Strongly disagree about Florida (especially) and Georgia.

I thought we had gotten past the "Florida is Titanium Tilt R that will definitely vote for Trump by 0.000127%" stage?

And is this really gonna end with the boring 2016+AZ+MI+PA+WI map people have been predicting for four years? Despite the fact that polls now show it's more likely Biden wins more swing states than that? I mean statistically, it's practically guaranteed at this point that he'll win at least one more if he wins all that. Probably Florida, and at least one of GA/NC/TX/IA/OH I think. Very well could win all of them depending on how big he wins nationally.

No we have not. I want to see Florida break it before I move it again, either that or a large polling lead. Yes, that is the plan.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Biden is poised to win Hawaii and its 4 electoral votes this November. He should also improve a little from Hillary due to the large third party share that will be narrowed this time, but still higher than the national average. There really isn't much else to say about this race other than Biden getting to sport around a lei as the winner of the Aloha state.



+32.52 Clinton to +34.36 Biden (1.84 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Idaho is also one of the harder states for me to guess. Biden may improve just a smidge on Hillary's loss margin due to the national environment, state trend, as well as him being a good fit for Idaho while Trump is not, but there was just so much third party right wing vote in 2016 that will be less this year, and a lot of it is bound to go to Trump, so that kind of should mute things out a lot. Trump should improve quite a bit in the southeastern rurals due to this, though Biden will probably improve a bit in the Boise area to hold fairly even.



+31.77 Trump to +30.78 Trump (0.99 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Any chance you could add the 2016 margin to these daily analyses? Would help a bit.

Thanks for doing this!

Yeah, I'll do that for ya , np

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Texas will be a close but hard state as always, and Biden does still have a chance of winning it. However, undecideds in the south tend to break republican, and it is still a lean R state that has been an incredibly tough nut, so with that, I will give it to Trump again. Despite this, the gap should continue to close even further, and this is a prime target for now and especially the future. Biden will continue the substantial gains in the Dallas metro area as well as a few smaller others ie. Austin San Antonio, etc. however, Trump should see moderate movement in his direction in almost all other parts of the state, probably enough to keep it in his column. I really want to place emphasis on the high likelyhood that Biden will romp in the Dallas area, and likely carry TX 24th, and they should vote democrat for congress as well. Not to sound too deranged, but the Texas GOP will do everything they possibly can to keep a grip on the state, and a flip will not be a walk in the park.

Did the Texas analysis for ya

Haha thanks, and usually you would be right, but considering it is my home state, I'm going to go a little more all out on it

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

IL should be a fairly boring state really. It is losing population and will be losing electoral votes next time too. Biden will see modest improvements in the chicagoland suburbs, and also in places like McLean county, where he is a good fit for and Trump is meh. Trump should improve in most of the rest of the state though that is not blue leaning already. The topline should be really stagnant, as it barely budged from 2012 to 2016, though as talked about already, there will be further polarization.



+17.07 Clinton to +17.31 Biden (0.24 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

IL should be a fairly boring state really. It is losing population and will be losing electoral votes next time too. Biden will see modest improvements in the chicagoland suburbs, and also in places like McLean county, where he is a good fit for and Trump is meh. Trump should improve in most of the rest of the state though that is not blue leaning already. The topline should be really stagnant, as it barely budged from 2012 to 2016, though as talked about already, there will be further polarization.



+17.07 Clinton to +17.31 Biden (0.24 margin swing dem)

I am surprised that a mega city like Chicago is losing people. It should be a Midwestern hub drawing in young people from rural areas in the Midwest and downstate IL.

It's just a rule of math that once an area gets so big the growth eventually slows down and even starts going negative. You just cannot maintain massive growth forever. That's why America's megacities of NY, LA, Chicago are not even growing that much anymore, and countries like China are starting to stall out.

Same thing goes for working out and building muscle too haha. Limits just exist.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hi Bagel---

Just saw this thread and popped in to take a peak...

1.) Really like what you're doing here man.... clearly a massive investment of labor hours and work on this project.

2.) Also Gotta say---  As a poster when you first jointed Atlas / TE you caught a lotta flack from tons of folks for various reasons, but this is clearly an *effort thread*, and shows how regular Atlas posters gradually evolve over several years of posting history, even though many of us when we first joined the Forum might have been a bit too keen to establish "street cred" early on as part of establishing our own "brand"....

3.) Haven't had a chance to more fully peruse your extensive posts in detail on this thread, but I like the format and visuals in terms of how you present your analysis /data, and will likely be replying here and there.

4.) Overall the concept reminds me a bit of those "X-Mas" calendar things from when I was a kid, where we would open up one box at a time on a day as part of the "countdown"...

Awesome concept--- fun as well for all of us Atlas Geeks!

Thanks, lol, nice, yes that is actually where I got the concept from lmao.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Indiana should be a fairly boring one, but there were a couple hardish calls for me to make. Giving Trump those three plurality counties was very hard, and frankly Biden has a very good chance to flip at least one of them, and I also have a hot take. Trump will fail to really improve from his 2016 numbers in ancestral D southern Indiana. Biden will undoubtedly improve in the Indianapolis metro area, especially Hamilton county, substantially, and rebound a bit near the great lakes a bit, and hold up in Fort Wayne, ultimately giving him a small improvement from 2016. Trump has room for improvement in the rural north, but Biden's substantial improvement in the main growing area of the state, Indianapolis metro area, will ultimately be what causes him to have his performance. Notably, Vigo county will almost without a doubt lose its bellwether status, as even in a hypothetical national landslide for Biden, would still in all likelihood go comfortably for Trump. Sad to see the end of an era like that, but it is what it is.



+19.01 Trump to +15.27 Trump (3.74 margin swing dem)