I'm gonna do this thread; 51 days left, 51 EV prizes. I'm gonna map and analyze one a day until the election, first one is Alabama. I think it will be fairly stagnant, with a slight boost for Biden because of the senate race. Expect Biden to make modest gains in the educated counties like Shelby, Lee, Jefferson, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Madison, Mobile, etc. The black belt should be fairly stagnant due to population loss, and Trump will continue posting gains in the rurals, esp in AL 4th. Biden's overall slight improvement can be seen because the places he will be making modest improvements are growing (comparatively) to the places Trump will be gaining in.
As someone very unfamiliar with the political geography of the South, where are black voters in central Alabama largely headed to?
The degree of decline of the black population in the rural Black Belt is not that high, at least as a percentage of the population (white people are leaving the area, too). But most departures by black residents are to cities, definitely with Montgomery and Birmingham as top destinations. Atlanta is probably near the top of the list of destinations, and Mobile, Huntsville and other cities across the South round it out. I am sure a few leave the South entirely if they have close family elsewhere, but that's not the norm.
