51 days left, 51 EV prizes, A Bagel Analysis

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Indiana should be a fairly boring one, but there were a couple hardish calls for me to make. Giving Trump those three plurality counties was very hard, and frankly Biden has a very good chance to flip at least one of them, and I also have a hot take. Trump will fail to really improve from his 2016 numbers in ancestral D southern Indiana. Biden will undoubtedly improve in the Indianapolis metro area, especially Hamilton county, substantially, and rebound a bit near the great lakes a bit, and hold up in Fort Wayne, ultimately giving him a small improvement from 2016. Trump has room for improvement in the rural north, but Biden's substantial improvement in the main growing area of the state, Indianapolis metro area, will ultimately be what causes him to have his performance. Notably, Vigo county will almost without a doubt lose its bellwether status, as even in a hypothetical national landslide for Biden, would still in all likelihood go comfortably for Trump. Sad to see the end of an era like that, but it is what it is.



+19.01 Trump to +15.27 Trump (3.74 margin swing dem)

[Bomster]

Do you take into account third party vote?

[Hope For A New Era]

Notably, Vigo county will almost without a doubt lose its bellwether status, as even in a hypothetical national landslide for Biden, would still in all likelihood go comfortably for Trump. Sad to see the end of an era like that, but it is what it is.

Donnelly won it in 2018, so a surprise Biden win is possible. It would be a last hurrah, though.

Really it's a bit odd that the county has drifted so far right. It's a college county.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Do you take into account third party vote?

Yessir, I do. I gave a total of 2,803,442 ballots cast in Indiana. 2,747,653 for Trump+Biden, and 55,789 for others.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Notably, Vigo county will almost without a doubt lose its bellwether status, as even in a hypothetical national landslide for Biden, would still in all likelihood go comfortably for Trump. Sad to see the end of an era like that, but it is what it is.

Donnelly won it in 2018, so a surprise Biden win is possible. It would be a last hurrah, though.

Really it's a bit odd that the county has drifted so far right. It's a college county.

Disagree. Donnelly barely eeked it out with a plurality while losing by less than 6 points statewide. Biden is not losing Indiana by only 6 points. Even if he somehow did, he still probably would not carry it, as even with a 6 point loss, the map would look slightly different from Donnelly due to polarization, with Biden doing better in places like Hamilton, but worse in places like Vigo. Yeah, but it is also heavily wwc.

[Bomster]

Do you take into account third party vote?

Yessir, I do. I gave a total of 2,803,442 ballots cast in Indiana. 2,747,653 for Trump+Biden, and 55,789 for others.

How do you calculate third party votes? That's something I'm having a hard time with.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Do you take into account third party vote?

Yessir, I do. I gave a total of 2,803,442 ballots cast in Indiana. 2,747,653 for Trump+Biden, and 55,789 for others.

How do you calculate third party votes? That's something I'm having a hard time with.

Right, so I am estimating the third party vote share to be around 2% ish nationally this time, so I take that and make that an average of all states, and dependent on how third party friendly that state is, I will adjust it. For instance, I will have Mississippi closer to 1% while Texas is close to the national average so I will give it 2% ish and a place like Alaska is much higher than the national average, so I will give it like 7% ish etc.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am quite bullish on Iowa for Biden. I could be quite off here, but I think we are in for a good night in the hawkeye state, as Biden substantially claws back. Democrats are targeting this state well this time, the polling looks much better, and national clues about the climb amongst white voters for Biden would be expected to take place in a ground zero state like this. Biden makes substantial gains in the blue strongholds, especially Des Moines area, and claws back a little bit in the rural northeast. Another bold take is I expect the heavy red northwest to swing a little towards Biden, with the rest of the state being fairly stagnant, but the very south central part might go a bit more towards Trump. This is a very exciting state to watch, although Trump should be expected to still remain the victor despite all of this. The state is simply so white, and lower in education, and swung so hard towards the republicans, that that brute strength alone will probably be enough for Trump to hold in. In addition, recent polling has slightly over polled democrat performances in 2016 and 2018 there.



+9.41 Trump to +3.32 Trump (6.09 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Kansas is another state Biden is set to improve in. The whole ticket is strong in Kansas, with the GOP being meh, and the state slowly but surely creeping leftward. Substantial gains should be seen for Biden especially in the Kansas City Metro area (specifically Johnson county) with more muted gains in the other parts of the metro area, and more modest gains in the Wichita and Topeka areas. Trump will probably be able to keep slowly gaining in the other rural parts of the state, but the metro areas Biden should gain in are the growing parts of the state, and account for well over 60% of the population, and also should swing heavier than the rurals. This is shaping up to be a good year for Kansas democrats, and Biden is set to capitalize on it.



+20.42 Trump to +14.42 Trump (6.00 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

A lot of people think Kentucky is a state that Trump improves in, I will say that I think that is quite unlikely. Biden should modestly gain in the state. Biden should improve in the democratic strongholds of jefferson and fayette nicely, especially fayette which is quite affluent and very white and educated, a good fit for Biden. Biden should also see hearty improvements in the wealthy suburban counties of Woodford, Shelby, and especially Oldham counties. The three Cincy suburb counties are also set to swing to Biden well for similar reasons. The hottest take I have is that the eastern ancestral D coal country will fail to meaningfully shift in Trump's direction. Though I do expect the ancestral R southern region, and ancestral D western bluegrass region (which has been absolutely brutal to democrats lately) to continue their movements toward the GOP. Biden may also see a slight bump in the broader lexington suburbs as well, basically making the odds of a Trump improvement very low. Still, this is a ruby red state that Trump will carry with ease, and Mitch should be just fine as well.



+29.84 Trump to +25.91 Trump (3.93 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Today we are doing Louisiana. This state is also among the most inelastic ones at the federal level these days, hardly trending in any direction from 2008 to now on the presidential ballot. Despite that, I think Biden should be able to improve just a smidge. Biden is a good fit for the New Orleans and Baton Rouge metro areas, which are the more growing areas of the state, and make up just under half of the state's population. Trump should be able to continue gains up north though, and even a little in the south, although Biden's Catholic faith and how it could interact with voters in the more Catholic parts of the state should be watched. My hot take is he stalls out a few of Trump's otherwise potential gains in rural southern Louisiana because of this. Religion is a much less big deal in American politics these days than even as recently as the 1960s, but that is not to say it does not have any impact at all. Just as recently as 2018, despite doing like 5ish points worse than Tom Wolf statewide, and worse in nearly every part of the state than Wolf, Bob Casey did run a few points ahead as a Catholic in a lot of the rural Catholic Pennsylvania backcountry. Regardless, things should still remain fairly stagnant within the state, and it is Safe R.



+19.64 Trump to +17.53 Trump (2.11 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Maine is a state that Biden is set to improve in modestly. The polling is better than 2016 and so will the environment be. Biden should be gaining near everywhere, especially the more growing southern suburbs of Portland. Trump may continue to gain a smidge in the most rural of rurals, but otherwise, not really. I do not think RCV will be necessary at the presidential level for any of the electoral votes, but it should be interesting if it is up for contention like that. I am a little more bearish on Maine however, with the long term movement of the state, and the still decent size gap between Biden and Gideon's polling leads. Regardless, this should still be a good year for Maine democrats, and a really neat state to watch, if nothing else, for RCV.



ME 1st: +14.81 Clinton to +19.41 Biden (4.6 margin swing dem)

ME 2nd: +10.31 Trump to +4.51 Trump (5.8 margin swing dem)

ME AL: +2.96 Clinton to +8.2 Biden (5.24 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Maryland is another state Biden should win handily and improve in. He is a great fit for the state, while Trump is a rather bad fit for it. Biden should see decent improvements in the educated suburbs like Howard county and Frederick county, and even modest improvements along The Delmarvan shores. Trump will probably manage to stall out gains in the bluest areas of the state due to maxxing out, and maybe even improve a little big in the solid red western counties. Overall a pretty boring state with few interesting races in it this year.



+26.42 Clinton to +31.66 Biden (5.24 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Massachusetts should be a fairly clear cut race this time. The East West trends should continue, with Biden improving in the more populous and growing east by a decent amount, and Trump slightly improving in the less populous and more stagnant west. This will enable Biden to Modestly outperform Hillary. Biden is a good fit for the state, while Trump is not, besides the western part. It also helps that the state is fairly wealthy and educated, and polling well for Biden. There really is not much else to say about this race.



+27.64 Clinton to +30.24 Biden (2.60 margin swing dem)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Finally, an exciting state at last, Michigan. She looks poised to flip back to Biden this cycle with dems posting good numbers in 2018, and good polling in 2020, with Biden leading by a decent amount and flirting with 50. Still, this is a state that is moving towards the GOP a little, so the swing should be pretty tame. Biden is set to substantially improve in the educated and growing suburbs like washtenaw, oakland kent, ottawa, etc. counties. this ultimately is what will hand Biden the state. He probably won't be posting more than modest gains in places like Wayne and Genessee. The smaller cities like lansing and kalamazoo should swing decently towards him though. Macomb is an interesting place, and should swing towards Biden somewhat, but probably not enough for a win. Look for Livingston as a place that Biden can make up ground under the radar too, with a strong congressional incumbent and decent trends. Most of the rest of the state however should continue to slowly march towards the GOP, especially the rurals, as the GOP has not maxxed out in rural Michigan quite yet.



+0.23 Trump  to +4.52 Biden (4.75 margin swing dem)

[NOVA Green]

I am quite bullish on Iowa for Biden. I could be quite off here, but I think we are in for a good night in the hawkeye state, as Biden substantially claws back. Democrats are targeting this state well this time, the polling looks much better, and national clues about the climb amongst white voters for Biden would be expected to take place in a ground zero state like this. Biden makes substantial gains in the blue strongholds, especially Des Moines area, and claws back a little bit in the rural northeast. Another bold take is I expect the heavy red northwest to swing a little towards Biden, with the rest of the state being fairly stagnant, but the very south central part might go a bit more towards Trump. This is a very exciting state to watch, although Trump should be expected to still remain the victor despite all of this. The state is simply so white, and lower in education, and swung so hard towards the republicans, that that brute strength alone will probably be enough for Trump to hold in. In addition, recent polling has slightly over polled democrat performances in 2016 and 2018 there.



+9.41 Trump to +3.32 Trump (6.09 margin swing dem)

What are your thoughts about Dallas County?

It would seem to be a logical place for a potential DEM flip in 2020 because of demographics and relatively close IA recent polling...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I am quite bullish on Iowa for Biden. I could be quite off here, but I think we are in for a good night in the hawkeye state, as Biden substantially claws back. Democrats are targeting this state well this time, the polling looks much better, and national clues about the climb amongst white voters for Biden would be expected to take place in a ground zero state like this. Biden makes substantial gains in the blue strongholds, especially Des Moines area, and claws back a little bit in the rural northeast. Another bold take is I expect the heavy red northwest to swing a little towards Biden, with the rest of the state being fairly stagnant, but the very south central part might go a bit more towards Trump. This is a very exciting state to watch, although Trump should be expected to still remain the victor despite all of this. The state is simply so white, and lower in education, and swung so hard towards the republicans, that that brute strength alone will probably be enough for Trump to hold in. In addition, recent polling has slightly over polled democrat performances in 2016 and 2018 there.



+9.41 Trump to +3.32 Trump (6.09 margin swing dem)

What are your thoughts about Dallas County?

It would seem to be a logical place for a potential DEM flip in 2020 because of demographics and relatively close IA recent polling...

As I said, I do expect Biden to make substantial gains there, but while I would not be surprised by a win for him there, I do still expect Trump to edge it out like 50-48. Current polling in Iowa is almost a literal tie rn, but since polling overshoots dems in the state, I still have Trump winning by 3-4 points statewide, and hence narrowly holding onto Dallas county, though it will continue the swing and trend left. Greenfield is also from this area, so a hard push could see both her and Biden narrowly take the county.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Minnesota is an absolute much watch list in 2020. Even though Hillary won it, it should frankly be considered on the same tier as WI, MI, and PA. Regardless, Biden should win it by a margin decent enough to where democrats can breath a sigh of relief. Biden will continue decent improvements in the twin cities area, and even a little bit in some of the more populated areas of southern MN. I was unsure about flipping back the couple counties in the North to Biden, and would not be at all surprised if Trump retains them, as I only flipped them back due to literally all other democrats recently winning them. Regardless, the Northern areas of Minnesota should continue their march towards the GOP, and democrats have not fully bottomed out in them yet. That plus a lot of right wing third party vote share up there keeps the state close, in addition to polls slightly overshooting democrats in the state. But Biden's good improvements where most of the people are and growing are enough to swing the state a little left this time.



+1.52 Clinton  to +4.35 Biden (2.83 margin swing dem)

[Andy Hine]

Your predictions are way too Republican friendly at this point. Minnesota is in no way competitive.

[big data boi]

Your predictions are way too Republican friendly at this point. Minnesota is in no way competitive.

I think they're good, sober predictions. I'm putting them all into a spreadsheet so I can see how far off they are after 11/3.

[Andy Hine]

Your predictions are way too Republican friendly at this point. Minnesota is in no way competitive.

I think they're good, sober predictions. I'm putting them all into a spreadsheet so I can see how far off they are after 11/3.

That's the spirit.

[Dr. Arch]

I think that you're being way too bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN counties and his overall margins. Where things stand now, I wouldn't expect anything less than Biden+8-9 statewide in MN.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think that you're being way too bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN counties and his overall margins. Where things stand now, I wouldn't expect anything less than Biden+8-9 statewide in MN.

Ok, we could argue on the 8-9 statewide thing but I don't think im being bullish on Trump's chances in suburban MN. I have Trump winning Anoka by like 1 point, losing Hennepin by like 40, Dakota by like 10, Washington by like 8, Ramsey by slightly over 40, etc.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Your predictions are way too Republican friendly at this point. Minnesota is in no way competitive.

Maybe to the first part, but I would disagree and say it is a solid strong lean D at this point. Biden is ahead by 8-9 ish in polling, but polling overshot hillary in the state, there is room for Trump to grow in parts, and it is a more favorable state to the GOP going forward.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Mississippi is a state that should remain fairly stagnant in 2020 again. Biden should manage to improve a hair because of expected improvements in large and growing (by MS standards) suburbs like desoto, rankin, madison, hinds, etc. Biden probably also sees mild improvement on the southern coast. Mild improvements may be there for Biden in the delta, but the area which is the base of dem support is shrinking, combined with Trump's likely improvement in much of the rest of the state, especially the Northeast, should keep things relatively similar to previous top lines. Still, the changes within the counties should be mild all around, and are only large when put in comparison to near stagnant counties in the state.



+17.80 Trump to +14.58 Trump (3.22 margin swing dem)