Talk Business/Hendrix-AR-02: Biden +4

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ruralchrislee/status/1305158735644577793?s=21

[Tender Branson]

That would translate to ca. Trump+13 statewide, which is more believeable than their Trump+2 poll from June.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Here's Nate Cohn dismantling their last underestimation of Trump in AR, for reference:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1272187642864635904

Not sure yet whether this poll is just as trashy, but proceed with caution!

[VAR]

Yeah no. Also, the House poll implies a 6 point shift from 2018.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://talkbusiness.net/2020/09/poll-razor-close-race-in-cd2-between-french-hill-joyce-elliott/

September 4-9, 2020
698 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Jorgensen 2%
Someone else 2%
Hawkins 1%
Don't know 3%

Trump won this district 52%-42% in 2016.

[Tender Branson]

Analysis:

“Four years ago, the voters of the 2nd Congressional District gave Donald Trump a double-digit win in central Arkansas; Trump gained just over 52% of the vote in the district while Hillary Clinton gained just below 42%. Much as Barack Obama’s Democrats continually lost ground in rural America (and rural Arkansas) during his time in office, Trump’s Republicans are having major difficulties in more suburbanized districts like CD2 across the country.

“In our survey, Democrat Joe Biden now leads by 49% to 45% over Trump in the district. Several forces are behind this shift. First is geography. Biden is running up a two-to-one margin in Pulaski County, which historically accounts for more than half of the district’s vote; this marks a shift in the Democratic direction from Clinton’s solid 56%-38% win in the county four years ago.

“Perhaps even more important, the most suburbanized counties around Pulaski — Saline and Faulkner — have shifted towards Biden even more markedly. Trump still leads solidly in both counties, but while Clinton gained only 25% in Saline and 31% in Faulkner in 2016, Biden is now within spitting distance of 40% in each. The more exurban and rural four counties in the district have solidly stuck with Trump, but their votes are overwhelmed by shifts in the three larger counties.

[...]

[Pollster]

Noah Rudnick wrote this excellent analysis of this seat earlier this year, explaining why it is a prime pickup opportunity for Dems.

[JerryArkansas]

Yeah no. Also, the House poll implies a 6 point shift from 2018.

And?  There are several other seats in the same boat that people don't bat an eyelash at like MO-2 and others.

[DrScholl]

This is the sort of territory that is prime for trending Democratic. It's in the same league as OK-5, but slightly better. Pulaski and Faulkner counties are quite educated in comparison to the state.

[Lief 🗽]

These guys also polled this district in 2018 and consistently had the Republican up double digits so this seems like a real shift.

[VAR]

These guys also polled this district in 2018 and consistently had the Republican up double digits so this seems like a real shift.

You seem like a smart person, do you really think going from Hutchinson +36 to Trump +2 is a “real shift” as well?  They probably changed their methodology after 2018 as did many polling firms around the country, including USC Dornsife (had the GCB D+15) and OHPI (had McSally up 7).

[Alben Barkley]

Will be good if the district with the Clinton Library is Democratic again.

[DrScholl]

These guys also polled this district in 2018 and consistently had the Republican up double digits so this seems like a real shift.

You seem like a smart person, do you really think going from Hutchinson +36 to Trump +2 is a “real shift” as well?  They probably changed their methodology after 2018 as did many polling firms around the country, including USC Dornsife (had the GCB D+15) and OHPI (had McSally up 7).

I think the poster was talking about the congressional race that was a DCCC target.

[VAR]

These guys also polled this district in 2018 and consistently had the Republican up double digits so this seems like a real shift.

You seem like a smart person, do you really think going from Hutchinson +36 to Trump +2 is a “real shift” as well?  They probably changed their methodology after 2018 as did many polling firms around the country, including USC Dornsife (had the GCB D+15) and OHPI (had McSally up 7).

I think the poster was talking about the congressional race that was a DCCC target.

I was referring to other polls done by Hendrix College, which can tell us whether this particular poll is accurate.

[WD]

I honestly don’t buy this, considering their previous AR poll. Lean R, closer to Likely.

[Sir Mohamed]

I honestly don’t buy this, considering their previous AR poll. Lean R, closer to Likely.

Agree. I don't buy AR is swining much to the left this cycle anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems can pick up more House districts outside the 279 blue wall, easily, its the fact that Oil and gas and Wildfires, that prevents oil drilling that is driving the red wall states towards Trump, and Trump pulling us out of climate change, and the Airlines, desperate need for fossil fuel that keeps oil drilling and big money that dominate R politics

[JerryArkansas]

I honestly don’t buy this, considering their previous AR poll. Lean R, closer to Likely.

The previous poll didn't weigh by education while this one does.  Overlook it at your own risk.

[WD]

I honestly don’t buy this, considering their previous AR poll. Lean R, closer to Likely.

The previous poll didn't weigh by education while this one does.  Overlook it at your own risk.

I just don’t think Dems will win the district, let a lone by the margin in the poll given how we lost by 7 in 2018. This district isn’t exactly Trending D. I’m pretty skeptical.

[VAR]

I honestly don’t buy this, considering their previous AR poll. Lean R, closer to Likely.

The previous poll didn't weigh by education while this one does.  Overlook it at your own risk.

Exactly, the poll was 20-25 points off only because it didn’t weight by education.

[JerryArkansas]

I honestly don’t buy this, considering their previous AR poll. Lean R, closer to Likely.

The previous poll didn't weigh by education while this one does.  Overlook it at your own risk.

I just don’t think Dems will win the district, let a lone by the margin in the poll given how we lost by 7 in 2018. This district isn’t exactly Trending D. I’m pretty skeptical.

It is though.  It's a highly suburban and college-educated district that has a growing non-white population.  It also trended left between 2012 and 2016 like many other regions that are now considered by most competitive.  Like I said ignore at your own risk.  I know Republicans in the state aren't acting like its as non competitive as most of you here seem to want to think.

Also if places like Alaska at-large and Ohio-1 are competitive this is too.  All three have similar margins and have incumbents running.  I'd use VA-5 and NY-2 but they don't have incumbents.

[Bumaye]

Yeah no. Also, the House poll implies a 6 point shift from 2018.

The US: Where a disastrous response to a pandemic, an impeachment and inciting a war in the streets rarely changes the public opinion by 6%.

[NOVA Green]

I honestly don’t buy this, considering their previous AR poll. Lean R, closer to Likely.

The previous poll didn't weigh by education while this one does.  Overlook it at your own risk.

I just don’t think Dems will win the district, let a lone by the margin in the poll given how we lost by 7 in 2018. This district isn’t exactly Trending D. I’m pretty skeptical.

It is though.  It's a highly suburban and college-educated district that has a growing non-white population.  It also trended left between 2012 and 2016 like many other regions that are now considered by most competitive.  Like I said ignore at your own risk.  I know Republicans in the state aren't acting like its as non competitive as most of you here seem to want to think.

Also if places like Alaska at-large and Ohio-1 are competitive this is too.  All three have similar margins and have incumbents running.  I'd use VA-5 and NY-2 but they don't have incumbents.

So @ JerryArkansas:

Believe the polling data was based upon a 2:1 D in Pulaski plus even greater swings in Faulkner and Saline Counties...

Get the concept that Pulaski might end up in a 2:1 scenario (56-38 D in '16)...

What about the "even larger shifts" in the Little Rock Burbs?

Is this credible or a random DEM "Pipe Dream", and is there any evidence to support the concept that there will be massive swings in the two heavily Republican Counties referenced above?

Sure would not be surprised if Washington County flips in 2020, but that's in a completely different district....

Discuss with maps, anecdotes, comments, etc....     

[DrScholl]

Doing the calculations, this swing would indicate that Biden probably is getting a 6-8% swing in Pulaski County with smaller ones elsewhere. Faulkner would be where the second largest swing would be and Saline would be next up, although probably nothing too dramatic considering that it is less college educated.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Dems can pick up more House districts outside the 279 blue wall, easily, its the fact that Oil and gas and Wildfires, that prevents oil drilling that is driving the red wall states towards Trump, and Trump pulling us out of climate change, and the Airlines, desperate need for fossil fuel that keeps oil drilling and big money that dominate R politics

AR-02 might just join the Sunbelt Stack.