May 3rd 2006 Primaries

[Flying Dog]

Ohio, Indiana, and N. Carolina have primaries tomarrow. Any close races?

Results can be posted here. If anyone cares.

[Keystone Phil]

Today would be May 2nd. 

I certainly care about Ohio but the man I support (Blackwell) will likely win anyway comfortably. I'll still follow it though.

[Keystone Phil]

For Ohio - http://www.sos.state.oh.us/Results/RaceSummary.aspx

[Sam Spade]

There are a number of interesting House races to keep one's eye on in all three of these primaries.

[Sam Spade]

Indiana primary results can be found here:

http://www.in.gov/serv/sos_primary06

Also, Indiana now has a new law requiring photo ID for voters.  No problems have been reported with it yet.

[Sam Spade]

For North Carolina:

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/

[Flying Dog]

Will Jean Schmit face a battle?

[Sam Spade]

Some Indiana results are starting to come in, but nothing really worth mentioning yet.

[Keystone Phil]

Will Jean Schmit face a battle?

She has opposition. Her main challenger is former Congressman Bob McEwen but polls showed her up by double digits.

[Flying Dog]

Will Jean Schmit face a battle?

She has opposition. Her main challenger is former Congressman Bob McEwen but polls showed her up by double digits.

Looks like the dems will have her to bash at for the next 2yrs.

[Flying Dog]

A court has ordered a precinct in Cuyahoga County to remain open until 9:30 p.m. The Secretary of State's office, therefore, will not report results until after all polling locations are closed.

[Soaring Eagle]

Thanks to Schumer, the Ohio primary won't be interesting at all...

[Sam Spade]

We should see a vote dump from Ohio in about 10 minutes or so.

[Sam Spade]

Votes are starting to come in now in Ohio.

Amusingly, the first votes are from Bob Ney's CD (OH-18).

[Flying Dog]

 Blackwell, J. Kenneth / Raga, Thomas A.             100,319      54.82%
Petro, Jim / Padgett, Joy       82,683    45.18%\

Petro is doing well.

[Flying Dog]

District  2
McEwen, Bob       6,879    48.42%
Schmidt, Jean       6,018    42.36%
Kraus, Deborah A.       796    5.60%
Constable, James E.       514    3.62%

[Alcon]

Where are these early votes coming from?

[Keystone Phil]

Where are these early votes coming from?

Check the county breakdown - http://www.sos.state.oh.us/Results/RaceDetail.aspx?race=GV&party=R

[Flying Dog]

For Schmidts distric


Adams, Brown, Pike,  Scioto, warren

[Alcon]

Cuyahoga hasn't even reported yet.  Petro might even pull this out.

[Flying Dog]

Cuyahoga hasn't even reported yet.  Petro might even pull this out.

How does he run against strickland?

[Alcon]

Cuyahoga hasn't even reported yet.  Petro might even pull this out.

How does he run against strickland?

The latest Mason-Dixon showed him down 6; Blackwell was down 10.

I think that Petro would be much more likely to make a comeback than Blackwell.

[Galactic Overlord]

Blackwell leading Petro 56.67%-43.33%.  It's pretty much a done deal.

[nini2287]

74.9% of Precincts Reporting

 Blackwell, J. Kenneth / Raga, Thomas A.             364,287      56.84%
Petro, Jim / Padgett, Joy       276,605    43.16%

Still no update from Cuyahoga County though.

Also, in District 2 with most precinct reporting (they don't have an exact amount):
 Schmidt, Jean             27,304      47.24%
McEwen, Bob       24,849    42.99%
Kraus, Deborah A.       3,619    6.26%
Constable, James E.       2,024    3.50%

[Sam Spade]

I'll just give a few quick observations on each of these primaries, then move on, as there are some races that haven't been touched yet that should, and some overall general comments:

Ohio

Overall, turnout did not impress me from the Republican side either in Ohio or Indiana, but turnout is often a fickle thing in primaries and can be influenced by many things.  What I am looking for is weakness or lack of enthusiasm in the incumbent, which shows potential general election weakness.

Nothing much to say in the Governor's races.  The only really contested race was Rep primary, Treasurer of State, where Sherrill O'Brien edged out Jennette Bradley.

In the Senate race:  I would normally say DeWine's 71% in a primary is not that great, but my general trust in Mason-Dixon polling outweighs that for now.

In the House, the biggest upset occurred in the OH-18 Dem primary, where virtual unknown Dem Zach Space beat expected winner Joe Culver by a fairly sizable margin.  This is Bob Ney's (R) seat.  Space is to the left of Culver and because of the recognition factor and this, I would improve the GOP chances in the seat, even though Ney's 68% win tonight was not impressive.

In OH-06, Dem Charles Wilson won and pulled as many Write-in votes as the GOP primary candidates did combined.  For this reason, the open seat will be moved over to lean Dem, maybe even further as time progresses.  I still can't figure out why the guy couldn't get 50 people to sign his petition.

In OH-16, GOP incumbent Ralph Regula edged out challenger Matt Miller by a margin of only 55%-45%.  I would rate his seat as more vulnerable, except his challenger is a non-entity, having raised $0.00 so far. 

In OH-13, the Sherrod Brown open seat, Betty Sutton will meet Craig Foltin.  Even though Foltin is the only Republican in the primary that I would even give a shot of having a chance here, Sutton is a good candidate for the district and will take advantage of the natural Dem lean of the CD (55-45).  Likely Dem for now.

Indiana

Overall comment:  The GOP incumbents, except for Mike Pence and Dan Burton, did not put in especially good numbers tonight against no-names.  Hostettler and Sodrel are already toss-ups and will stay so (Hostettler was not challenged).  The CDs of Souder (IN-3) and Buyer (IN-4) are so Republican that I doubt it matters.

The one incumbent that I would push towards being more competitive is Chris Chocola (IN-2), who will be facing Joe Donnally again, whom he only defeated with 54% in 2004.  He only got 70% in the primary tonight against a no-name.  Lean Rep for now, but this one could be heading towards tossup fast.

North Carolina[/i]

Nothing really to note here, except that Nifong won re-election, Taylor (NC-11) got only 80%, which gets me closer towards pushing his contest to toss-up.