OR - DHM Research: Biden +12%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

An Oregon poll at last.

https://www.dhmresearch.com/joe-biden-leads-by-12-points-among-oregon-voters-worry-about-covid-19-spread-remains-high/

September 3-8
502 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Biden 51%
Trump 39%
Someone else 6%
Undecided 4%

Clinton 50%-Trump 39% in 2016.

[Lief 🗽]

538 Headquarters on suicide watch as it turns out that Oregon is not in fact a swing state.

[Illiniwek]

Just wait until trump gets the wildfire bump, amirite?

[OBD]

Margin's a little underwhelming, honestly. I'd expect Biden to lead here by 15-16 points at least.

Safe D regardless. Anyone who says otherwise is higher than Mt. Hood.

[VAR]

Favorabilities:
Trump 39/60
Biden 52/44
Pence 38/53
Harris 44/43
Gov. Brown 43/51 (was 42/54 in Oct. 2019)

[Tender Branson]

Their Sept. 2016 poll was Hillary+13:

Link

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Margin's a little underwhelming, honestly. I'd expect Biden to lead here by 15-16 points at least.

Safe D regardless. Anyone who says otherwise is higher than Mt. Hood.

The "Someone else" option (if not volunteered by respondents) apparently tends to obscure the magnitude of leads where they are especially large. That is at 6% in this poll.

The way Kate Brown's favourability seems to be headed (despite the COVID-19 approval bumps for most Democratic governors) should make her glad she'll be term-limited in 2022.

[WD]

Safe D. Biden should definitely improve on Clinton margin. Most likely Biden+13 to Biden+15

[Person Man]

That means that Biden isn't getting his numbers from blue or red states.

[OBD]

Margin's a little underwhelming, honestly. I'd expect Biden to lead here by 15-16 points at least.

Safe D regardless. Anyone who says otherwise is higher than Mt. Hood.

The "Someone else" option (if not volunteered by respondents) apparently tends to obscure the magnitude of leads where they are especially large. That is at 6% in this poll.

The way Kate Brown's favourability seems to be headed (despite the COVID-19 approval bumps for most Democratic governors) should make her glad she'll be term-limited in 2022.

True. That could definitely be due to Oregon's significant far-left contingent.

[Tender Branson]

That means that Biden isn't getting his numbers from blue or red states.

He's gaining a few points everywhere ...

His national margin in current polls is definitely inflated though.

It's very likely a 52-46 race.

[Xing]

Probably underestimating his margin a bit. Can we please put to rest the idea that Oregon is a "sleeper state", trending Republican, or a soon-to-be swing state?

[republican1993]

portland effect

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Smaller lead than what it seems like it should be given Trump's abysmal approval rating, but whatever I'll take it. Just glad to have any polling out of this state, honestly.

[pbrower2a]

The oddity is that Oregon is about where it was in 2016.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Safe D. Biden should definitely improve on Clinton margin. Most likely Biden+13 to Biden+15

[Crumpets]

Even after including this, 538 still has Trump at an 8% chance of winning - exactly where he was before this poll.

[psychprofessor]

Last five pres cycles: +0 D; +4 D; +16 D; +12 D; +11 D. I don't think the state is able to move beyond low double digits for the D.

[Gass3268]

Probably not the best time to be polling Oregon...

[Roll Roons]

Good. It means his national lead isn't just being inflated by running up the score in blue states.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

538 Headquarters on suicide watch as it turns out that Oregon is not in fact a swing state.

Lol still won't affect their narrative:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1304480539676639233?s=19

[Nyvin]

Kinda low margin for Oregon.   I'd expect Biden to get something like a 15-16 point win there.

[Rand]

Nice. Biden will definitely do better in my home state than Hellary. Looking forward to Deschutes County finally turning blue.

[politicallefty]

This is a fairly underwhelming margin, but it's just one poll. I've also thought Oregon is a fairly polarized state though. It seems like Democrats have a ceiling in the high 50s. I'm still expecting Oregon this year to look similar to what Obama did in 2008.

I also have to wonder if the fires could be affecting a poll like this too. It's probably not the best time when I just read that apparently 500k are now under evacuation orders.

[Xing]

538 Headquarters on suicide watch as it turns out that Oregon is not in fact a swing state.

Lol still won't affect their narrative:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1304480539676639233?s=19

Go home, Nate, you're drunk.