Will there be a GOP only runoff in Georgia?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

A lot of the recent polling we have is now showing Collins behind Loeffler however he is still in second place. Will Democrats be locked out and not have a candidate viable for the runoff?
Bonus: If the runoff is between Loeffler and Collins who wins?

[ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed]

I hope so!

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm learning towards no. While it is true that Loefeller and Collins are the 2 canidates in my polling average, Warnock is doing a lot better than Liberman that suggests that when time comes from everyone to vote, we'll likely have Democrats split more heavily towards Warnock and in a close state like GA, and the fact that it's unlikely Collins and Loeffler split the GOP vote evenly, that should lead to a D v R ronoff like 2/3rds of the time in a state that's going to be close in 2020.

[Rookie Yinzer]

No.

The Atlanta Metro is going to come in hard for Warnock.

[Adam Griffin]

Now that the Warnock campaign is visible in the media and Loeffer support seems really hollow, no chance (even before, it was small).

I do still think Lieberman will get relatively meaningful showings in some places outside of the ATL media market simply due to name recognition issues, but that's not going to be enough to create a R-vs-R situation. Oddly enough, I think Lieberman's range of possibilities is highly clustered; he'll either get less than 5% (which is much more likely) or >10%.

Absolute best-case scenario for Lieberman and/or the GOP would be:

Maybe something like 36% Warnock, 28% Collins, 20% Loeffer, 12% Lieberman in that specific scenario.

Increasingly, I'm thinking it'll be more like 43 Warnock, 34 Collins, 14 Loeffer, 3 Lieberman.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's highly unlikely, the only way for that to happen is if Republicans split their vote evenly between Loeffler and Collins (both around 25%), while Warnock gets just below that (20-25%) and Lieberman +  other Democrats gets another 20% or so. Nothing right now suggests that will happen.

[Pollster]

This will be ridiculed, but I genuinely believe a Warnock/Lieberman runoff is more likely than a Collins/Loeffler runoff.

(Neither is likely)

[GeorgiaModerate]

This will be ridiculed, but I genuinely believe a Warnock/Lieberman runoff is more likely than a Collins/Loeffler runoff.

(Neither is likely)

What's your thinking behind this?  I agree that neither is likely, but have thought that there's a small chance of Collins/Loeffler and effectively no chance of Warnock/Lieberman.

[Pollster]

This will be ridiculed, but I genuinely believe a Warnock/Lieberman runoff is more likely than a Collins/Loeffler runoff.

(Neither is likely)

What's your thinking behind this?  I agree that neither is likely, but have thought that there's a small chance of Collins/Loeffler and effectively no chance of Warnock/Lieberman.

Put simply, Loeffler was appointed specifically to appeal to voters who are showing less and less signs of gettability the further we get into this cycle. She is an atrocious fit for the pool of voters a Republican needs in GA, especially compared to Collins who fits like a glove. Collins is now matching her on the airwaves (she had previously been dominant) and is largely seen as a more credible messenger. We even have some research showing that Loeffler's ads tying Collins to Abrams helped him with independents more than it hurt him with Republicans.

Warnock is also better fit for the GA Dem pool than Lieberman, though Lieberman's targeting is going beyond the traditional Dem base (he's actually going for many of the original Loeffler targets, with mixed success depending on the region of the state) and is doing quite well in particular with immigration-focused voters. His ability to find votes in unlikely places is probably being underestimated, for better or worse, though the number of votes this will actually net Lieberman is questionable.

To sum it up: Loeffler and Collins are competing mostly for the same voters, among whom Collins is more trusted, more credible, and more well-liked overall. Warnock and Lieberman are also competing for a lot of the same voters but benefit from having good portions of their base being unique to them, with the advantage going to Warnock because his base is in all likelihood more populous. This most likely adds up to a Collins vs. Warnock runoff.

[ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed]

Realistically, I think it will be Loeffler vs Warnock.

[Xing]

Probably not, I think this would only happen if Lieberman and Warnock split the Democratic vote nearly evenly. I think Democrats will break toward Warnock near the end, at least getting him a spot in the run-off.

[Adam Griffin]

Just to elaborate from before: the Ossoff primary map was very illustrative in how the Democratic jungle primary vote (at least in relative terms/various under and over-performance patterns) will likely play out. In that case as well as this one, it'll be based entirely on name recognition/media market exposure inside & outside of Metro ATL voters, as well as how many angsty white high-info R-turned-Ds feel any bond to Lieberman. People who are relatively aware of the two top names but who aren't getting blasted with ads and media will disproportionately flip a proverbial coin when choosing a candidate.

Restricting that dynamic even further...remember that 60% of Abrams voters were here (which is only around two-thirds of the ATL media market). It's damn near impossible to imagine a scenario where Lieberman and Warnock are even relatively close in terms of vote share.

 

[Ferguson97]

Just to elaborate from before: the Ossoff primary map was very illustrative in how the Democratic jungle primary vote (at least in relative terms/various under and over-performance patterns) will likely play out. In that case as well as this one, it'll be based entirely on name recognition/media market exposure inside & outside of Metro ATL voters, as well as how many angsty white high-info R-turned-Ds feel any bond to Lieberman. People who are relatively aware of the two top names but who aren't getting blasted with ads and media will disproportionately flip a proverbial coin when choosing a candidate.

Restricting that dynamic even further...remember that 60% of Abrams voters were here (which is only around two-thirds of the ATL media market). It's damn near impossible to imagine a scenario where Lieberman and Warnock are even relatively close in terms of vote share.

 

So it should be Warnock v Collins?

[NewYorkExpress]

I see a fifty-fifty chance of Collins/Warnock, or Collins/Loeffler.

[brucejoel99]

Unless Warnock randomly switches his registration to being a Republican, no.

[Adam Griffin]

Just to elaborate from before: the Ossoff primary map was very illustrative in how the Democratic jungle primary vote (at least in relative terms/various under and over-performance patterns) will likely play out. In that case as well as this one, it'll be based entirely on name recognition/media market exposure inside & outside of Metro ATL voters, as well as how many angsty white high-info R-turned-Ds feel any bond to Lieberman. People who are relatively aware of the two top names but who aren't getting blasted with ads and media will disproportionately flip a proverbial coin when choosing a candidate.

Restricting that dynamic even further...remember that 60% of Abrams voters were here (which is only around two-thirds of the ATL media market). It's damn near impossible to imagine a scenario where Lieberman and Warnock are even relatively close in terms of vote share.

 

So it should be Warnock v Collins?

That's been the conventional wisdom the entire time, yes. While a smattering of public polls over the summer show Loeffer being anywhere from competitive to favored relative to Collins, I'll just say that "other polls" show anywhere from a slight Loeffer edge over Collins (with her support being very tenuous) to Collins romping.

The only way she gets saved is that because it's a jungle primary, the R-to-D suburbrons will have more freedom to choose whether they want to back a D or a moderate R (for strategic/"ancestral" reasons) prior to the runoff. A lot of people forget that prior to Trump, the GAGOP electorate was quite moderate and prone to erring on the safe side in their primaries relative to other Southron states (though more and more are now identifying as Ds - at least behavior-wise). For this reason and given the dynamics, it's very difficult to imagine a scenario where both Lieberman and Loeffer overperform expectations (minus the non-metro low-infos and as Pollster said, they are fighting for a certain demographic that mostly would've been reliably GOP even just a few years ago).