GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)

[DINGO Joe]

Has anyone ever gotten a picture of, or proven the existence of Patricia McCracken yet?

[Pollster]

This was the right move. Now she needs to work on analyzing and correcting what went wrong to prep for Gov/Lt Gov/SoS in 2022.

Out of curiosity, what do you think went wrong for her?  I think a lot of her problems were beyond her control.  Her fundraising lagged because for months potential donors were waiting to see if big name potential candidates like Abrams or Yates would run.  Ossoff had a built-in fund-raising advantage from the start thanks to his already existing massive donors list, and some key endorsements (Lewis, especially).  I guess choosing to run her campaign out of Columbus rather than the Atlanta Metro Area was a huge miscalculation, limiting her media exposure and volunteer operation, but that was also the core of her pitch:  "I'm from south Georgia and I can win over those voters."  Besides relocating to where the money and the people are, I'm not sure what she should have done differently. 

A few things, most prominently she struggled with fundraising. Most Dem donors in GA are in Atlanta, and she's not a familiar face to either voters or the party brass in that region. This was made even more difficult by Ossoff's entry and consolidation of Atlanta-area support.

It seems like she also expected to get the lions' share of institutional support when Abrams stepped aside and wasn't prepared for when it didn't come. She is close with Abrams and probably expected that relationship to do a lot more for her than it did, and probably anticipated a Warnock-style rallying of the party around her. This was probably due to the DSCC not wanting to endorse against John Lewis rather than outright opposition to Tomlinson's candidacy.

Regardless, the solution here is to develop relationships with Atlanta Dems. Lending support for the Democratic legislative caucus and folks like McBath, Bourdeaux, Warnock, etc. is the right way to go.

[pppolitics]

This is probably a dumb question, but why wasn't there a jungle primary of all the candidates regardless of party?

[Not Me, Us]

This is probably a dumb question, but why wasn't there a jungle primary of all the candidates regardless of party?

AFAIK, that only happens in Georgia for special elections.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is probably a dumb question, but why wasn't there a jungle primary of all the candidates regardless of party?

No, you're thinking of the special election for the Class III seat (Kelly Loeffler).  That will be held as part of the general election on Nov. 3.  If no candidate gets a majority (almost certainly the case) the runoff will be held on Jan. 5.

[pppolitics]

This is probably a dumb question, but why wasn't there a jungle primary of all the candidates regardless of party?

No, you're thinking of the special election for the Class III seat (Kelly Loeffler).  That will be held as part of the general election on Nov. 3.  If no candidate gets a majority (almost certainly the case) the runoff will be held on Jan. 5.

thanks

[Adam Griffin]

This was the right move. Now she needs to work on analyzing and correcting what went wrong to prep for Gov/Lt Gov/SoS in 2022.

Out of curiosity, what do you think went wrong for her? I think a lot of her problems were beyond her control.

This, essentially. The moment Ossoff entered (and to a lesser degree, Amico), it was over in retrospect. People forget that Georgia is a name recognition state. Democrats in particular are going to vote en masse for the name they recognize (and when that isn't a factor, boy, do you get some stupid outcomes). Her fundraising was lackluster but didn't cost her the race (need I point out the Stacey Evans of the world who outraised their opponents and still lost); mainly it just led to the first swipe that allowed for an anti-momentum narrative to take hold.

See the current outcome map? It's a media market/name rec map, and nothing more:



Tomlinson won her home turf - i.e. the media market where she has had years of earned media exposure. While Ossoff was also well-known, she was the more trusted figure here obviously.

Amico won on the outskirts of Georgia in FL media markets because she was the only candidate to ever be on the ballot there, and neither of the other campaigns put any energy into these markets. By the way, this pattern of border counties in South GA has appeared in past primaries across both parties; neglect due to most people in those media markets being out-of-state. Similar but less absolute trends often occur in NW GA-Chatt media market: Ossoff was 25-35 there with Amico in 2nd, despite him winning majorities in every bordering ATL media market county.

Ossoff prevailed everywhere else due to his name rec and strength in the main media market.

[Adam Griffin]

Has anyone ever gotten a picture of, or proven the existence of Patricia McCracken yet?

https://www.blogfordemocracy.org/2010/07/mystery-galrevealed.html

[DINGO Joe]

Has anyone ever gotten a picture of, or proven the existence of Patricia McCracken yet?

https://www.blogfordemocracy.org/2010/07/mystery-galrevealed.html

Wow, I had just heard of her from 2016 when she won the nomination for GA 12, sight unseen and got 38% that fall, again never seen.

[wbrocks67]

It looks like Bordeaux may get 50% outright in GA-07. She's at 48.7% with many ballots still left to go

[Epaminondas]

It looks like Bordeaux may get 50% outright in GA-07. She's at 48.7% with many ballots still left to go

Where do you find that? I see her at 47.0 on all news outlets.

[Sir Mohamed]

There is always a Tweet:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1271163759692677120

[wbrocks67]

It looks like Bordeaux may get 50% outright in GA-07. She's at 48.7% with many ballots still left to go

Where do you find that? I see her at 47.0 on all news outlets.

she's at 48.9% on DDHQ

https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2020/primary/georgia

[GeorgiaModerate]

Greg Bluestein of the AJC tweeted earlier this morning that Bourdeaux is now at 49.3%.

[DINGO Joe]

Greg Bluestein of the AJC tweeted earlier this morning that Bourdeaux is now at 49.3%.

She's at 49.42 now.  Gwinnett does updates like every 2-3 hrs or so.  It just a matter of how much is left.  It'll be close and even then the provisionals could change things.  Even so, it would be hard for Romero to look at the numbers and decide to continue to a runoff.

[DINGO Joe]

This was the right move. Now she needs to work on analyzing and correcting what went wrong to prep for Gov/Lt Gov/SoS in 2022.

Out of curiosity, what do you think went wrong for her? I think a lot of her problems were beyond her control.

This, essentially. The moment Ossoff entered (and to a lesser degree, Amico), it was over in retrospect. People forget that Georgia is a name recognition state. Democrats in particular are going to vote en masse for the name they recognize (and when that isn't a factor, boy, do you get some stupid outcomes). Her fundraising was lackluster but didn't cost her the race (need I point out the Stacey Evans of the world who outraised their opponents and still lost); mainly it just led to the first swipe that allowed for an anti-momentum narrative to take hold.

See the current outcome map? It's a media market/name rec map, and nothing more:



Tomlinson won her home turf - i.e. the media market where she has had years of earned media exposure. While Ossoff was also well-known, she was the more trusted figure here obviously.

Amico won on the outskirts of Georgia in FL media markets because she was the only candidate to ever be on the ballot there, and neither of the other campaigns put any energy into these markets. By the way, this pattern of border counties in South GA has appeared in past primaries across both parties; neglect due to most people in those media markets being out-of-state. Similar but less absolute trends often occur in NW GA-Chatt media market: Ossoff was 25-35 there with Amico in 2nd, despite him winning majorities in every bordering ATL media market county.

Ossoff prevailed everywhere else due to his name rec and strength in the main media market.

The contrast in voting pattern is especially stark as you go from the Columbus to Atlanta market.  Harris Co votes 57-27 for Tomlinson while the next county north, Troup, votes 53-15 Ossoff.  It's almost like Columbus doesn't even exist.

[2016]

Very interesting Observation:
Donald Trump and David Perdue basically were running UNOPPOSED in the GA Republican Primary.

With 93.71 % of Precincts reporting according to the GA SoS Office

Donald Trump 870,042 Votes

David Perdue 906,183 Votes

A 36K Undervote in the POTUS Race.

That suggests to me that Georgia is legitimately in play when it comes to the Presidential Race while Perdue will win Reelection.

And we will see this in November all over the Country that Republican Senate Incumbents will outperform President Trump just like a lot of GOP Incumbents did in 2016.

That's why I think Perdue, Tillis will have a greater than 50 % Chance getting reelected. Moderate Republicans don't like Trump BUT they won't everything to the D's.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very interesting Observation:
Donald Trump and David Perdue basically were running UNOPPOSED in the GA Republican Primary.

With 93.71 % of Precincts reporting according to the GA SoS Office

Donald Trump 870,042 Votes

David Perdue 906,183 Votes

A 36K Undervote in the POTUS Race.

That suggests to me that Georgia is legitimately in play when it comes to the Presidential Race while Perdue will win Reelection.

And we will see this in November all over the Country that Republican Senate Incumbents will outperform President Trump just like a lot of GOP Incumbents did in 2016.

That's why I think Perdue, Tillis will have a greater than 50 % Chance getting reelected. Moderate Republicans don't like Trump BUT they won't everything to the D's.

There were early votes for the Presidential primary only, because before the postponements it was on a different, earlier date than the other primaries.  Reportedly some counties are counting those early-early (presidential only) ballots last.

[Pollster]

Very interesting Observation:
Donald Trump and David Perdue basically were running UNOPPOSED in the GA Republican Primary.

With 93.71 % of Precincts reporting according to the GA SoS Office

Donald Trump 870,042 Votes

David Perdue 906,183 Votes

A 36K Undervote in the POTUS Race.

That suggests to me that Georgia is legitimately in play when it comes to the Presidential Race while Perdue will win Reelection.

And we will see this in November all over the Country that Republican Senate Incumbents will outperform President Trump just like a lot of GOP Incumbents did in 2016.

That's why I think Perdue, Tillis will have a greater than 50 % Chance getting reelected. Moderate Republicans don't like Trump BUT they won't everything to the D's.

By your logic, Ossoff will also outrun Biden since 869,779 votes have been cast in the Presidential primary but 948,438 votes have been cast in the Senate primary.

[free my dawg]

Normally, I'm wary of rerunning losers. Even if they're great fundraisers like Ossoff, there's still a part of me that's hesitant.

Tomlinson, however, seems like an idiot and Democrats dodged a bullet here.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Normally, I'm wary of rerunning losers. Even if they're great fundraisers like Ossoff, there's still a part of me that's hesitant.

GA is so tribal and partisan I don’t think it matters who we run. Stacey Abrams and the voter suppression stuff has Black people ready to turn out for whoever and we know the hicks are coming out full force to protect Trump. GA is going to be high turnout regardless. I think we are getting a runoff between Warnock and Collins and that’s going to be just as epic as the November general. What a time to be alive.

[2016]

Normally, I'm wary of rerunning losers. Even if they're great fundraisers like Ossoff, there's still a part of me that's hesitant.

GA is so tribal and partisan I don’t think it matters who we run. Stacey Abrams and the voter suppression stuff has Black people ready to turn out for whoever and we know the hicks are coming out full force to protect Trump. GA is going to be high turnout regardless. I think we are getting a runoff between Warnock and Collins and that’s going to be just as epic as the November general. What a time to be alive.

No way is Warnock going to win a Runoff in January especially if the Senate is already decided one way or the other. I remember the ballistic Democratic Trolls over at DailyKos in 2008 when the believed Jim Martin would pull off a Runoff Victory against Saxby Chambliss. How did that turn out?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Normally, I'm wary of rerunning losers. Even if they're great fundraisers like Ossoff, there's still a part of me that's hesitant.

GA is so tribal and partisan I don’t think it matters who we run. Stacey Abrams and the voter suppression stuff has Black people ready to turn out for whoever and we know the hicks are coming out full force to protect Trump. GA is going to be high turnout regardless. I think we are getting a runoff between Warnock and Collins and that’s going to be just as epic as the November general. What a time to be alive.

No way is Warnock going to win a Runoff in January especially if the Senate is already decided one way or the other. I remember the ballistic Democratic Trolls over at DailyKos in 2008 when the believed Jim Martin would pull off a Runoff Victory against Saxby Chambliss. How did that turn out?

You're citing what happened twelve years ago as a predictor for a hypothetical runoff?  The state has changed a lot since then.  I'm not saying that Warnock would necessarily be favored, but it wouldn't be a slam dunk for Collins.

[2016]

Normally, I'm wary of rerunning losers. Even if they're great fundraisers like Ossoff, there's still a part of me that's hesitant.

GA is so tribal and partisan I don’t think it matters who we run. Stacey Abrams and the voter suppression stuff has Black people ready to turn out for whoever and we know the hicks are coming out full force to protect Trump. GA is going to be high turnout regardless. I think we are getting a runoff between Warnock and Collins and that’s going to be just as epic as the November general. What a time to be alive.

No way is Warnock going to win a Runoff in January especially if the Senate is already decided one way or the other. I remember the ballistic Democratic Trolls over at DailyKos in 2008 when the believed Jim Martin would pull off a Runoff Victory against Saxby Chambliss. How did that turn out?

You're citing what happened twelve years ago as a predictor for a hypothetical runoff?  The state has changed a lot since then.  I'm not saying that Warnock would necessarily be favored, but it wouldn't be a slam dunk for Collins.

Oh, I don't deny that Georgia has changed but Warnock would not get the AA Support he needs in a Runoff to win especially if the Senate is already decided.
Looking at the past few years only Popular Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards has managed to win a Runoff in a State of the Deep South. That is saying something.

If Democrats want to win in States like GA, AL, MS they have to do it outright on Election Day in November.

[2016]

Very interesting Observation:
Donald Trump and David Perdue basically were running UNOPPOSED in the GA Republican Primary.

With 93.71 % of Precincts reporting according to the GA SoS Office

Donald Trump 870,042 Votes

David Perdue 906,183 Votes

A 36K Undervote in the POTUS Race.

That suggests to me that Georgia is legitimately in play when it comes to the Presidential Race while Perdue will win Reelection.

And we will see this in November all over the Country that Republican Senate Incumbents will outperform President Trump just like a lot of GOP Incumbents did in 2016.

That's why I think Perdue, Tillis will have a greater than 50 % Chance getting reelected. Moderate Republicans don't like Trump BUT they won't everything to the D's.

By your logic, Ossoff will also outrun Biden since 869,779 votes have been cast in the Presidential primary but 948,438 votes have been cast in the Senate primary.

I'm sure you are old enough to remember the Missouri Senate Election in 2012 between McCaskill and Akin. There was a HUGE Drop-off between the POTUS Race and the Senate Race. Moderate Republicans were voting for Romney but not for Akin.
AND Donald Trump almost behaves like Akin at times.