Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates: Biden +10 in CO, +1 in GA, -2 in IA, +14 in ME, -7 in MT
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  Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates: Biden +10 in CO, +1 in GA, -2 in IA, +14 in ME, -7 in MT
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Author Topic: Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates: Biden +10 in CO, +1 in GA, -2 in IA, +14 in ME, -7 in MT  (Read 1805 times)
VAR
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« on: September 10, 2020, 08:54:40 AM »
« edited: September 10, 2020, 10:07:07 AM by VARepublican »

CO
Biden 50%
Trump 40%

GA
Biden 47%
Trump 46%

IA
Trump 47%
Biden 45%

ME
Biden 54%
Trump 40%

ME-02
Biden +4

MT
Trump 50%
Biden 43%

https://states.aarp.org/
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2020, 08:56:32 AM »

These are all pretty good results for Biden right after the GOP convention.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2020, 09:03:58 AM »

These are all pretty good results for Biden right after the GOP convention.

It boggles my mind why they would decide to do a giant survey like this right after the GOP convention. Why not wait a week to see all of the convention "bounces" subside?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2020, 09:04:51 AM »

Both sets of state polls are for the AARP, and the releases also list the results among age 50+ voters.  

(Benenson polls)

AZ: Biden 49-47
FL: Trump 50-47
MI: Biden 54-40
NC: Tie 48-48
PA: Biden 50-46
WI: Biden 50-46

(Fabrizio Ward polls)

CO: Biden 48-46
GA: Biden 47-46
IA: Trump 48-46
ME: Biden 54-41
MT: Trump 48-47
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ExSky
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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2020, 09:31:51 AM »

Positive number for MT. Especially for Bullock
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VAR
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2020, 09:32:16 AM »

Positive number for MT. Especially for Bullock

Bullock is trailing in this poll.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2020, 09:32:46 AM »
« Edited: September 10, 2020, 11:56:07 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Conducted for AARP
All conducted August 30 - September 5
All of likely voters

CO
Changes with July 29-31, 2019 poll

Biden 50 (-1)
Trump 40 (-2)

ME
Changes with July 29-31, 2019 poll

Biden 54 (+4)
Trump 40 (-4)
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2020, 09:33:30 AM »

Iowa -2, right after the RNC? Maybe he does have a chance. The state where the rural Democratic revival begins?
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2020, 09:49:40 AM »

Iowa -2, right after the RNC? Maybe he does have a chance. The state where the rural Democratic revival begins?

If it's true that Biden is performing well amongst white voters then one would think that Iowa would be the state that would indicate that most in the polling.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2020, 10:04:50 AM »

Biden +4 in ME-02.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2020, 10:52:40 AM »

Selzer and PPP are the only 2 reliable pollsters in OH and IA, Biden seems to be polling lower in other polls in OH and iA. Biden if he is leading by 7 will take back those two states.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2020, 11:01:59 AM »

An update: the MoEs are correct, but all of these Fabrizio polls (although not the Benenson ones) actually sampled 800 likely voters each.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2020, 12:21:02 PM »

It's worth pointing out that these polls were taken right after the RNC, so they could be showing the bump, and AARP tends to oversample older voters.
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kph14
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« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2020, 12:43:30 PM »


They must love Biden's #Populism up there
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2020, 12:46:50 PM »

CO isnít voting to the right of ME, and ME-02 isnít voting to the left of GA (or six points to the left of IA, for that matter).

Why do you keep assuming that Trump is gonna keep things close, he is Sarah Palin, he only beat Benghazi Hillary, he wouldn't have beaten Hillary in 2008 when we had another Recession, Biden has lead RCP by 7 pts, like Obama lead McCain-Palin in 2008
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2020, 12:47:27 PM »


Source? I'm not seeing that in the link.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2020, 12:50:05 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2020, 12:55:07 PM by tagimaucia »

This was Trump's chief pollster in 2016 I think (Fabrizio/Ward)?  And Benenson was Obama's (or one of them?) in both 2008 and 2012.  If anything the Fabrizio/Ward are marginally more Dem friendly than the Benenson ones so I don't think there are really any fingers on the scale.  I put a lot of stock in both sets of polls.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2020, 02:00:50 PM »


It says so here:

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/09/10/politics/susan-collins-and-sara-gideon-virtually-tied-in-new-maine-aarp-poll/
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2020, 02:10:45 PM »


Thanks!

MoE for full sample: 3.5%

Initial Gideon vs Collins: 7% undecided (in addition to Gideon 44, Collins 43, Savage 6)

Both undecided voters and Savage voters are then pushed as to who they prefer, giving us Giden 48, Collins 47 (thanks to RCV).
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