WI-Marquette Law: Biden +4

[DrScholl]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd5LNhdapy0&feature=youtu.be

Biden 47, Trump 43

Poll crosstabs will be posted around 12:45 Central time.

[Devout Centrist]

Note: They added Jo Jorgensen as an option

[MplsDem]

688 LV

Biden 47, Trump 43

Note that this is the first time that Jorgenson has been offered as a choice in this poll.

[redjohn]

If Biden's leading by 4 in WI while leading by ~8 points nationwide, that's not a great sign for him here. The amount of undecideds is also concerning; it's what enabled Trump's surprise win in 2016.

[afleitch]

A week old. Why do they sit on polls?

[Gass3268]

Essentially no change from July.

[n1240]

RV Biden 46 Trump 40

[kph14]

It's also quite an old poll. They were in the field Aug 30 - Sep 1.

[neostassenite31]

So many undecideds and 3rd party votes that it reeks of WI polls from 16. Maybe it's just this particular pollster

[redjohn]

It's also quite an old poll. They were in the field Aug 30 - Sep 1.

So this is the immediate aftermath of the RNC, basically. Scratch what I wrote earlier. Biden continuing to lead after Trump's best chance to unilaterally dominate coverage is a good sign for him. I'm just worried about the undecided numbers.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this is slightly after the RNC and already kind of old, so that's a bit frustrating.

Their RV poll has Biden +6, the same as last time but... more undecideds. 46-40 is ridiculous... that's 4% more undecided than last month.

Jo Jorgensen not getting 4%.

Biden dropping from +6 RV to +4 LV doesn't seem to jive with LV screen helping him in most other polls either.

[wbrocks67]

It's also quite an old poll. They were in the field Aug 30 - Sep 1.

So this is the immediate aftermath of the RNC, basically. Scratch what I wrote earlier. Biden continuing to lead after Trump's best chance to unilaterally dominate coverage is a good sign for him. I'm just worried about the undecided numbers.

It's just a bad sample, I think. They somehow had *more* decided voters a month ago than now, which obviously isn't right

[redjohn]

Yeah, this is slightly after the RNC and already kind of old, so that's a bit frustrating.

Their RV poll has Biden +6, the same as last time but... more undecideds. 46-40 is ridiculous... that's 4% more undecided than last month.

Jo Jorgensen not getting 4%.

Biden dropping from +6 RV to +4 LV doesn't seem to jive with LV screen helping him in most other polls either.

4% for Libertarians is obviously comical. They probably end up getting less than 2% of the vote here. So the question is: Where do the rest of the voters go? I wonder how much it depends on whether there's a second wave of COVID and how impactful it would be.

[Lief 🗽]

Dumb of them to change their methodology and explicitly ask about the Libertarian. Especially if you’re doing live interviews. It just inflated her final vote share.

[MplsDem]

Trump favorability -12, 42/54. Was 42/55 last month.
Biden favoribility 45/47. was 43/48 last month.

[Gass3268]

8 days is really old and randomly adding Jorgensen is odd. Still essentially no change and the deeper fundamentals look solid for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

Trump job approval: 44/54 (-10) … was 44/54 in August

Does Joe Biden care about people like you? 48/45 (+3) … was 46/42 in June
Does Donald Trump care about people like you? 41/56 (-15) … was 39/57 in June

Pence fav: 39/46 (-7)
Harris fav: 38/37 (+1)

Trump fav: 42/54 (-12)
Biden fav: 45/47 (-2)

Trump protests approval: 36/54 (-18)

--

The only thing that I can gather from this is that 44% looks like it's Trumps ceiling in Wisconsin. It's hard to look at these #s and only have Biden down 4-6.

[Alben Barkley]

It's also quite an old poll. They were in the field Aug 30 - Sep 1.

So this is the immediate aftermath of the RNC, basically. Scratch what I wrote earlier. Biden continuing to lead after Trump's best chance to unilaterally dominate coverage is a good sign for him. I'm just worried about the undecided numbers.

Biden has the edge among undecideds this time. I wouldn’t worry about it.

[MplsDem]

If Biden's leading by 4 in WI while leading by ~8 points nationwide, that's not a great sign for him here. The amount of undecideds is also concerning; it's what enabled Trump's surprise win in 2016.

Another way to look at it is that the topline is 47-43 Biden, but Trump's approval is 42-54.  So a strong majority of respondents who didn't choose a candidate disapprove of Trump.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

August 30 - September 3
688 likely voters
MoE: ?
Changes with August 4-9 poll.

Biden 47% (-3)
Trump 43% (-3)
Jorgensen 4% (not previously listed, but "Neither" at 2%, "Refused" at 1%)

Results with leaners have not yet been released so the changes look at a bit shonky. I'll update when appropriate.

Edit: Undecided 7% (+6%)

[redjohn]

Trump job approval: 44/54 (-10) … was 44/54 in August

Does Joe Biden care about people like you? 48/45 (+3) … was 46/42 in June
Does Donald Trump care about people like you? 41/56 (-15) … was 39/57 in June

Pence fav: 39/46 (-7)
Harris fav: 38/37 (+1)

Trump fav: 42/54 (-12)
Biden fav: 45/47 (-2)

Trump protests approval: 36/54 (-18)

--

The only thing that I can gather from this is that 44% looks like it's Trumps ceiling in Wisconsin. It's hard to look at these #s and only have Biden down 4-6.

Those Harris numbers are prior to her getting bombarded with cultural wars by Trump's goons in WI. Same thing happened with Feingold in 2016; dude looked like he had the Senate race wrapped up, and then the abortion ads pummeled him in the suburbs. I'm worried Biden/Harris isn't prepared for the bad faith attacks that are going to commence here.

[Dr. Arch]

It's also quite an old poll. They were in the field Aug 30 - Sep 1.

So this is the immediate aftermath of the RNC, basically. Scratch what I wrote earlier. Biden continuing to lead after Trump's best chance to unilaterally dominate coverage is a good sign for him. I'm just worried about the undecided numbers.

This is the right take on this poll.

[Gass3268]

Trump is at his worst approval since September of 2018.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump isn't going to carry a state where his approval rating is -10.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A full release!

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/MLSP63ToplinesLV.pdf

August 30 - September 3
688 likely voters
Changes with August 4-9 poll

With leaners:

Biden 48% (-2)
Trump 44% (-2)
Jorgensen 4% (not previously listed)
Refused 2% (+1)
None/other 0% ("Neither" previously at 2%)
Don't know 2% (+1)