PA-NBC/Marist: Biden +9

[KaiserDave]

TIGHTENING

[pbrower2a]

Post-Comey letter, Hillary never got a poll of +9 or higher in any of WI, MI, or PA. There's still plenty of time for Trump, Barr, and friends to try to pull a Comey letter-style stunt, but it's just not reasonable at this point to say we're "just a polling error away from Trump winning" to use Nate Silver's phrase.

The best hope would be a forged photo of Joe Biden with you-know-who. Hint: the fellow offed himself in jail.

[Tekken_Guy]

No way that Central PA has swung like that, but it's a crosstab, so we'll forgive it.

I live here and, yeah, that's not happening. Even if Biden has made some very impressive gains in increasingly-liberal Lancaster (plausible) there's no way it offsets counties like Adams and York. I can't tell you the number of Confederate and Trump flags out in the rural parts here.

Trump "doing well" in those counties is not enough. He has to do considerably better than he did in 2016 if he wants to counteract further declines in the suburbs or stronger minority turnout.

[DaleCooper]

Does anyone know if Marist counts people with 2-year degrees as "college graduates" in their sample?

I don't know for sure if Marist does this or not, but if they do then it would be incredibly unusual. 2-year degrees are almost always considered "some college" or vocational school or something else rather than as a college graduate, which refers to degrees received from universities.