R&W: Biden +5 in AZ, +3 in FL, +11 in MI, -1 in NC, +5 in PA, +9 in WI
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  R&W: Biden +5 in AZ, +3 in FL, +11 in MI, -1 in NC, +5 in PA, +9 in WI
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Author Topic: R&W: Biden +5 in AZ, +3 in FL, +11 in MI, -1 in NC, +5 in PA, +9 in WI  (Read 3401 times)
VAR
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« on: September 08, 2020, 02:58:56 PM »
« edited: September 08, 2020, 03:05:15 PM by VARepublican »

AZ, WI - Aug 30-Sep 4
FL, MI, NC, PA - Aug 30-Sep 3

AZ (830 LV, MoE: 3.4%)
Biden 48% (+1)
Trump 43% (+5)
Hawkins 1%

FL (1093 LV, MoE: 3.0%)
Biden 47% (-2)
Trump 44% (+3)
Jorgensen 1%
Hawkins 1%

MI (967 LV, MoE: 3.2%)
Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 40% (+2)
Jorgensen 1%

NC (951 LV, MoE: 3.2%)
Trump 44% (-2)
Biden 43% (-1)
Jorgensen 1%
Hawkins 1%

PA (1053 LV, MoE: 3.0%)
Biden 48% (nc)
Trump 43% (+2)
Jorgensen 1%
Hawkins 1%

WI (670 LV, MoE: 3.8%)
Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 41% (+2)

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-30-august-4-september/

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2020, 03:00:19 PM »

Good numbers for Biden--at, above, or near 50 in most of them!
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WD
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« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2020, 03:00:50 PM »

Those MI and WI numbers:

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soundchaser
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« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2020, 03:01:58 PM »

PA continues to be concerning, but everything else looks good. Especially Wisconsin -- who'da thunk?
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Horus
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« Reply #4 on: September 08, 2020, 03:02:30 PM »

The trend in Florida is concerning.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: September 08, 2020, 03:02:40 PM »
« Edited: September 08, 2020, 03:07:08 PM by President Johnson »

Solid numbers, but (re)emphasizes the Biden campaign should be very focused on North Carolina. It's really kinda odd Pennsylvania appears to be less Democratic than Wisconsin, but Scranton Joe should be fine if he can improve in the suburbs of Philly. And Arizona continues to be really worrysome for Trump.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2020, 03:03:34 PM »

Wish they were a little closer to today since they are still in the aftermath days of the RNC, but still good #s.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2020, 03:03:44 PM »

They look fine/good.
But the tightening in FL has me a-little worried.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2020, 03:04:38 PM »

Biden is clearly still strong in the Midwest.

But the previous iteration of this had been Biden's one really good poll in Florida in the last few months.   There is now mounting evidence across five or six different polls that Biden is having trouble connecting with Latinos there.

How many Latinos spoke in prime time at the DNC?  Compared to how many white Republicans?  Biden's strategy will probably work nationwide, but it's a pretty sad indictment of what the Democratic party thinks it needs to do to win.
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ηєω Éяσηтιєя
New Frontier
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« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2020, 03:05:05 PM »

The trend in Florida is concerning.

They look fine/good.
But the tightening in FL has me a-little worried.
Doesn't really matter. If Biden wins MI, WI, PA, AZ - the election is OVER.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2020, 03:05:13 PM »

Glad we're getting more polls, but I can't say it's doing wonders for the quality of the forum right now.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #11 on: September 08, 2020, 03:05:54 PM »

The trend in Florida is concerning.

Wut? Florida was never going to vote for Joe Biden by more than two or three points. Probably will be decided by less than two in either direction.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2020, 03:06:06 PM »

The trend in Florida is concerning.

They had him up by 8 last time. That was an absurd number to begin with. Looks like most pollsters are coming back to earth of where this race is (and probably always was)
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2020, 03:06:50 PM »

Biden 8 pt FL lead now just 3
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2020, 03:08:32 PM »

Full results (sampling dates slightly vary, MoEs, etc.):

AZ
August 30-September 4
830 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with August 16-18 poll.

Biden 48% (+1)
Trump 43% (+5)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Jorgensen 0% (-1)
West 0% (n/c)
Another Third Party/Write-in 0% (n/c)
Don't know 6% (-4)

FL
August 30-September 3
1093 likely voters
MoE: 2.96%
Changes with August 16 poll.

Biden 47% (+1)
Trump 44% (+5)
Hawkins 1% (+1)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
Another Third Party/Write-in 1% (n/c)
Don't know 6% (-1)

MI
August 30-September 3
967 likely voters
MoE: 3.15%
Changes with August 16-18 poll.

Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 40% (+2)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
Another Third Party/Write-in 1% (n/c)
Hawkins 0% (-1)
Don't know 7% (-2)

NC
August 30-September 3
951 likely voters
MoE: 3.18%
Changes with August 16-17 poll.

Trump 44% (-2)
Biden 43% (-1)
Hawkins 1% (+1)
Jorgensen 1% (-1)
Another Third Party/Write-in 1% (n/c)
Don't know 9% (+2)

PA
August 30-September 3
1053 likely voters
MoE: 3.02%
Changes with August 16-17 poll.

Biden 48% (n/c)
Trump 43% (+2)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
Another Third Party/Write-in 1% (n/c)
Don't know 7% (-1)

West N/A (previously at 0%)

WI
August 30-September 4
670 likely voters
MoE: 3.78%
Changes with August 16-17 poll.

Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 41% (+2)
Jorgensen 2% (+1)
Hawkins 0% (-1)
Another Third Party/Write-in 0% (-1)
Don't know 6% (-1)

West N/A (-1)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2020, 03:08:45 PM »


If you honestly believed he was actually up by 8 at any point then... idk what to tell you.

Only this forum would act like it was bad for Biden that he's averaging about ~3pt lead in FLORIDA of all places right now.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #16 on: September 08, 2020, 03:09:12 PM »

So these were taken right after the RNC too. Even better news for Biden.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2020, 03:09:16 PM »

Glad we're getting more polls, but I can't say it's doing wonders for the quality of the forum right now.

Doesn't help that Marist is the only one close to being reputable.

Should be much better this weekend
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: September 08, 2020, 03:09:28 PM »

NC is kind of junk. Too high undecideds/other
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: September 08, 2020, 03:09:46 PM »

Glad we're getting more polls, but I can't say it's doing wonders for the quality of the forum right now.

Doesn't help that Marist is the only one close to being reputable

and they're not even weighing for education though, so ...
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ηєω Éяσηтιєя
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« Reply #20 on: September 08, 2020, 03:10:30 PM »

How many Latinos spoke in prime time at the DNC?  Compared to how many white Republicans?  Biden's strategy will probably work nationwide, but it's a pretty sad indictment of what the Democratic party thinks it needs to do to win.
WHAT? Huh

Eva Longoria hosted Night 1, AOC, Hilda Solis, Alex Padilla, the young Mexican-American woman and her undocumented mother & sister, Kristin Urquiza, Catherine Cortez Masto, etc. The roll call & "rising stars" video featured MANY Hispanic speakers & politicians.
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VAR
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« Reply #21 on: September 08, 2020, 03:11:52 PM »

Approval of State Governorís handling of the coronavirus:

AZ: 29/47 (-18)
FL: 38/41 (-3)
MI: 58/29 (+29)
NC: 51/28 (+23)
PA: 48/32 (+16)
WI: 44/35 (+9)
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #22 on: September 08, 2020, 03:13:09 PM »
« Edited: September 08, 2020, 03:19:43 PM by Fmr. Gov. NickG »

How many Latinos spoke in prime time at the DNC?  Compared to how many white Republicans?  Biden's strategy will probably work nationwide, but it's a pretty sad indictment of what the Democratic party thinks it needs to do to win.
WHAT? Huh

Eva Longoria hosted Night 1, AOC, Hilda Solis, Alex Padilla, the young Mexican-American woman and her undocumented mother & sister, Kristin Urquiza, Catherine Cortez Masto, etc. The roll call & "rising stars" video featured MANY Hispanic speakers & politicians.

These were all like 2-minute speeches at most.  

Edit: The segment with the undocumented immigrants and families was probably the single most effective moment of the convention for me.  But it was still treated as almost a throw-away slotted early on the first night. 

Fighting the unforgivable evil perpetrated on innocent children by Trump and his movement should be the central message of the Democratic party, not the "Biden won't swing too far left" message from people like Kasich.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #23 on: September 08, 2020, 03:13:35 PM »

Biden needs to focus on NC. If Democrats wish to govern at all, they absolutely absolutely have to beat Tillis.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #24 on: September 08, 2020, 03:16:04 PM »

So these were taken right after the RNC too. Even better news for Biden.

Yeah, the fact that they are still closely after the RNC isn't bad at all for Biden, especially in WI, MI, and AZ. NC is even 1 pt better for Biden than their last poll.
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