FL-NBC/Marist: TIE

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1303377586257629186

Poll: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7203771-NBC-News-Marist-Poll-FL-Annotated-Questionnaire.html

The NBC News/Marist poll of Florida was conducted – by cell phone and landline interviews – from Aug. 31 to Sept. 6 of 766 likely voters, which has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.5 percentage points.

The poll also interviewed 1,047 registered voters (plus-minus 3.9 percentage points) and 1,146 (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points).

[bilaps]

FL is lean R.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Cubans have had enough BLM terror.

[Person Man]

I guess the economy is improving rapidly down here and more people are becoming Republicans as they become wealthy.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, we're probably not getting a winner on election night...

[wbrocks67]

IDK what is more ridiculous... Biden winning Seniors when Trump won them by nearly 20% in 2016, or Trump winning Hispanics when Hillary won them by 27% in 2016.

If Nelson and Gillum got nearly 10% leads with Hispanics, there is no way Trump is *winning* them.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Just throw the whole state away, for the love of God

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Full release:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_FL-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_2020090712221.pdf

August 31-September 5
766 likely voters
MoE (among likely voters): 4.5%

Other 1%
Undecided 2%

[wbrocks67]

It would really be something though after all that Trump has done and said, and how badly FL was hit by the virus if he was still able to win it after all that.

[redjohn]

Is anybody surprised the Biden+6 polls were never going to materialize into reality? Come on, FL has always been a tossup and was always going to be decided by a slim margin. Biden should make some visits but don't put too much effort into the state. PA+WI+MI+AZ are much easier flips.

[Tintrlvr]

(Toplines are whatever, internals are crazy, but that seems to be a routine problem in Florida polling.)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Ugh...worst poll for Biden in months IMO.

[libertpaulian]

35% GOP
32% Dem
31% Indie

Um...did they oversample Republicans?

[gf20202]

I wish this had a breakdown by polling days. To me, it feels intuitive that there might be a mild RNC bump at the beginning of this polling due to being so soon after the RNC.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This poll doesn't weight by education fwiw.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

(Toplines are whatever, internals are crazy, but that seems to be a routine problem in Florida polling.)

Look, mom! It's 1996 again for some reason. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is anybody surprised the Biden+6 polls were never going to materialize into reality? Come on, FL has always been a tossup and was always going to be decided by a slim margin. Biden should make some visits but don't put too much effort into the state. PA+WI+MI+AZ are much easier flips.

If Biden has a small lead, which I believe to be the case, then normal variation would make us expect both Biden+6 and tied (or even small Trump lead) polls.  If the race was truly tied, we should see reasonable numbers of polls with both Biden leads and Trump leads.

In other words: if a candidate's best poll is a tie, then they are very likely behind.

[Xing]

The topline is believable, but Biden is not losing Latinos and winning older voters, regardless of his primary coalition. It's not 2000 anymore.

[Skill and Chance]

Is anybody surprised the Biden+6 polls were never going to materialize into reality? Come on, FL has always been a tossup and was always going to be decided by a slim margin. Biden should make some visits but don't put too much effort into the state. PA+WI+MI+AZ are much easier flips.

If Biden has a small lead, which I believe to be the case, then normal variation would make us expect both Biden+6 and tied (or even small Trump lead) polls.  If the race was truly tied, we should see reasonable numbers of polls with both Biden leads and Trump leads.

In other words: if a candidate's best poll is a tie, then they are very likely behind.

IDK.  Florida tied with a +7 PV margin is pretty pathetic.  It's basically back in line with 2018 after all that hype about how great Biden was with seniors.  This is the first day I really think Biden could blow it again.  If everything is suddenly snapping back to 2018, time to get out of Ohio and Iowa and into GA/TX 

[afleitch]

The poll has a 47-43 approval rating amongst Latino voters. CIVIQS have it 34-64. It could just be a Trump heavy sample that influences the poll.

[wbrocks67]

Though c'mon man...

<45 year olds

2016: Hillary +16
2018: Nelson +27
2020: Biden +0

Yeah, not happening.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's usually a bad idea to question shonky margins in crosstabs, although the lack of weighting by education is a more serious concern.

Lean D -> Tilt D, but deep down we all know this is an immutably tilt R state.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

While I'm not sure it's plausible that Biden is losing FL Latinos, it's definitely been obvious for a while that he's having trouble connecting with Latino voters.  

He probably should have chosen a Latina running mate.  I really have no idea what he thought Harris was adding to the ticket.  She doesn't even help with black voters: 22% of black respondents view her unfavorably in this poll, compared with 14% of black respondents who view Biden unfavorably.

In any case, at this point he really needs to carve out a portion of his campaign to focus on Trump's unforgivable atrocities toward immigrants.  This is really the core, primordial evil of Trumpism, and yet it seems to have faded so far into the background.

[ElectionWatcher25]

FL just flipped red on PredictIt.

[Buzz]

Lean R state remains Lean R...