Miami-Dade (B&A): Biden +17

[wbrocks67]

Not surprising, I would expect Miami Dade to be a county where Trump outperforms his 2016 numbers, racial polarisation peaked in 2012 in terms of how whites voted vs non whites, in 2016 Trump did no better with whites overall but better with non white voters and so far in the 2020 polling he is doing worse with whites but better with non whites.


Compared to the final pre 2020 election polling in terms of margin, Trump is doing 13% better with Hispanics and 4% better with blacks, but 7% worse with whites.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301279229712183302

Of course there are 6x as many white voters as Hispanic voters or black voters so the net result is a big gain for Biden. Biden right now is doing better with white voters than any democrat since Clinton in 1996, the reason Biden isn’t up by more than Obama 2008 levels, around 7 to 7.5% is because Trump is doing better with non-white voters then any republican since Bush in 2004.

Definitely has to be a portion of "he hasn't been as bad as I thought he would be" minority Clinton '16 voters. 

If Trump does still win, black and Hispanic men between ages 25 and 40 will be the reason.

I would, though, use caution in applying a uniform swing to other states/regions. 

I'd be interested to see numbers for, say, Texas Hispanics or California Hispanics. 

Yes, it's weird to me how well Biden is polling in the Southwest states with a strong Hispanic trend toward Trump in national polls, not just in Florida.

For the 100th time though, there's not much evidence there's a Hispanic trend toward Trump. We literally just got the YouGov poll the other day that had Biden +38 with Hispanics, the same exact as Hillary

[Badger]

Cuban-Americans swinging hard to Trump while Biden wins other swing states comfortably is plausible.

Just curious as to why this might be? I mean, I get it that Latino Americans are more diverse than the media portrays them, and cuban-americans are particularly different, and less likely to sympathize with other Hispanics locked up at the border than Mexican and Central American immigrant family voters. However, I just can't conceive why Cubans would actually shift towards Trump from 2016.

[Annatar]

Not surprising, I would expect Miami Dade to be a county where Trump outperforms his 2016 numbers, racial polarisation peaked in 2012 in terms of how whites voted vs non whites, in 2016 Trump did no better with whites overall but better with non white voters and so far in the 2020 polling he is doing worse with whites but better with non whites.


Compared to the final pre 2020 election polling in terms of margin, Trump is doing 13% better with Hispanics and 4% better with blacks, but 7% worse with whites.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301279229712183302

Of course there are 6x as many white voters as Hispanic voters or black voters so the net result is a big gain for Biden. Biden right now is doing better with white voters than any democrat since Clinton in 1996, the reason Biden isn’t up by more than Obama 2008 levels, around 7 to 7.5% is because Trump is doing better with non-white voters then any republican since Bush in 2004.

Definitely has to be a portion of "he hasn't been as bad as I thought he would be" minority Clinton '16 voters. 

If Trump does still win, black and Hispanic men between ages 25 and 40 will be the reason.

I would, though, use caution in applying a uniform swing to other states/regions. 

I'd be interested to see numbers for, say, Texas Hispanics or California Hispanics. 

Yes, it's weird to me how well Biden is polling in the Southwest states with a strong Hispanic trend toward Trump in national polls, not just in Florida.

For the 100th time though, there's not much evidence there's a Hispanic trend toward Trump. We literally just got the YouGov poll the other day that had Biden +38 with Hispanics, the same exact as Hillary

Dave Wasserman found a shift averaging 8 polls.

 https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301276794922979329

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Not surprising, I would expect Miami Dade to be a county where Trump outperforms his 2016 numbers, racial polarisation peaked in 2012 in terms of how whites voted vs non whites, in 2016 Trump did no better with whites overall but better with non white voters and so far in the 2020 polling he is doing worse with whites but better with non whites.


Compared to the final pre 2020 election polling in terms of margin, Trump is doing 13% better with Hispanics and 4% better with blacks, but 7% worse with whites.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301279229712183302

Of course there are 6x as many white voters as Hispanic voters or black voters so the net result is a big gain for Biden. Biden right now is doing better with white voters than any democrat since Clinton in 1996, the reason Biden isn’t up by more than Obama 2008 levels, around 7 to 7.5% is because Trump is doing better with non-white voters then any republican since Bush in 2004.

Definitely has to be a portion of "he hasn't been as bad as I thought he would be" minority Clinton '16 voters. 

If Trump does still win, black and Hispanic men between ages 25 and 40 will be the reason.

I would, though, use caution in applying a uniform swing to other states/regions. 

I'd be interested to see numbers for, say, Texas Hispanics or California Hispanics. 

Yes, it's weird to me how well Biden is polling in the Southwest states with a strong Hispanic trend toward Trump in national polls, not just in Florida.

Um, Latinos aren't all the same. Latinos in the Southwest are mostly Mexican-Americans. Latinos in Florida are much more varied by nationality/ethnicity  (Cubans, Colombians, Puerto Ricans, etc).

While polling of Hispanics tends to be unreliable, this is a big warning sign for Biden. If Trump does that well with Cubans, he might just hang on to Florida and that really complicates things for Biden if the undecideds in the upper Midwest swing to Trump as well.

Well, your last sentence doesn't seem like it's going to happen year. Most undecided/swing voters in key Midwestern states are favoring Biden by a decent margin.

[wbrocks67]

Not surprising, I would expect Miami Dade to be a county where Trump outperforms his 2016 numbers, racial polarisation peaked in 2012 in terms of how whites voted vs non whites, in 2016 Trump did no better with whites overall but better with non white voters and so far in the 2020 polling he is doing worse with whites but better with non whites.


Compared to the final pre 2020 election polling in terms of margin, Trump is doing 13% better with Hispanics and 4% better with blacks, but 7% worse with whites.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301279229712183302

Of course there are 6x as many white voters as Hispanic voters or black voters so the net result is a big gain for Biden. Biden right now is doing better with white voters than any democrat since Clinton in 1996, the reason Biden isn’t up by more than Obama 2008 levels, around 7 to 7.5% is because Trump is doing better with non-white voters then any republican since Bush in 2004.

Definitely has to be a portion of "he hasn't been as bad as I thought he would be" minority Clinton '16 voters. 

If Trump does still win, black and Hispanic men between ages 25 and 40 will be the reason.

I would, though, use caution in applying a uniform swing to other states/regions. 

I'd be interested to see numbers for, say, Texas Hispanics or California Hispanics. 

Yes, it's weird to me how well Biden is polling in the Southwest states with a strong Hispanic trend toward Trump in national polls, not just in Florida.

For the 100th time though, there's not much evidence there's a Hispanic trend toward Trump. We literally just got the YouGov poll the other day that had Biden +38 with Hispanics, the same exact as Hillary

Dave Wasserman found a shift averaging 8 polls.

 https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301276794922979329

And polls year after year continue to underestimate Dems though with Hispanics.

[Devils30]

Does anyone think these polls could be like 2018's TX-23 where the GOP looks much better than reality with a local Hispanic population? Remember Dems triaged that district as Hurd was up 15 and on election day he won by like 1,000 votes, a huge mistake. Cell-phone only Hispanic voters are really difficult to poll and you see some good signs for Biden like his huge lead with independents.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cuban-Americans swinging hard to Trump while Biden wins other swing states comfortably is plausible.

Just curious as to why this might be? I mean, I get it that Latino Americans are more diverse than the media portrays them, and cuban-americans are particularly different, and less likely to sympathize with other Hispanics locked up at the border than Mexican and Central American immigrant family voters. However, I just can't conceive why Cubans would actually shift towards Trump from 2016.

That's what my thought about BLM was about: Trump's attempts to appeal to law-and-order are not just ineffective because voters don't trust him on law-and-order issues, but because that's not how those most opposed to the protests have been are talking about them. They're less worried about lawlessness and more worried about the law being turned against them somehow. Cuban Americans and other groups with memories of communism would be among the most likely to think this way.

But this is highly speculative. This poll could just as easily be misleading, and perhaps Biden's emphasis on his national security credibility will be effective at retaining many of these voters.

Speaking less tentatively, here are two things that I'm sure of: (1) If Trump improves relative to 2016 with anyone, it's most likely to be among historically Republican constituencies that didn't know what to make of him at the time; (2) if Biden's polling shows any weak points relative to Clinton's, it is among Hispanics in general. DFB has written some compelling things on AAD about how the Biden campaign's Hispanic outreach has been poor. We also know that they were among Biden's weakest constituencies in the primaries, although notably not among Cuban Americans in Florida.

By that point, it was just Biden vs Sanders. Bloomberg often polled best in Florida at his peak and I would guess that his coalition had a fair few of these voters.

[Nyvin]

Kinda subpar result for Biden honestly.   Not the poll I was looking for.

[redjohn]

It's been clear Biden has been underperforming among Hispanic voters since the primary ended; something many people on this site sneered at earlier in the year. Polls across the board (despite past polls of Hispanic voters often having large errors) have shown Biden underperforming among Hispanic voters.

There is a lot of outreach being done by the campaign, but yes, in addition to the upper midwest, Biden needs to also make some visits to FL. Not too many (HRC spent like half her campaign there only to come up short), but enough to be visible and active.

[Woody]

Romney underperforming McCain with Cubans in Miami-Dade is what saved Obama in 12'; Biden underperforming Clinton with Cubans is what is going to make him lose statewide to Trump.

[Skill and Chance]

Romney underperforming McCain with Cubans in Miami-Dade is what saved Obama in 12'; Biden underperforming Clinton with Cubans is what is going to make him lose statewide to Trump.

Biden's still leading by overperforming Clinton big time with retirees.  Obama won in 2008 with about this Miami-Dade margin .

[wbrocks67]

It's been clear Biden has been underperforming among Hispanic voters since the primary ended; something many people on this site sneered at earlier in the year. Polls across the board (despite past polls of Hispanic voters often having large errors) have shown Biden underperforming among Hispanic voters.

There is a lot of outreach being done by the campaign, but yes, in addition to the upper midwest, Biden needs to also make some visits to FL. Not too many (HRC spent like half her campaign there only to come up short), but enough to be visible and active.

Latino polling is allover the place though so we really don't know. Not to mention Biden did incredible in the FL primary.

You have Q-pac going from +7 to nearly +30 Biden with Hispanics, you have the CA poll today with Biden doing *better* than HRC 2016, you have YouGov at HRC's margin nationally, while you also have some where Biden is doing worse or better than HRC 2016 (NBC/WSJ from a month or two ago). Polling for Hispanics is just really wobbly, so I don't think too much stock should be put into any one particular narrative about it

[krb08]

This is exactly what happened in 2018. Dems make gains throughout the rest of Florida while Miami-Dade alone allows Scott and DeSantis to barely win. Luckily for Biden, his gains in the rest of the state might be large enough to offset the Miami-Dade losses this time, but either way this poll is extremely concerning.

This cannot be something the Biden campaign is asleep at the wheel for, like Gillum and Nelson were. They need to be on top of this. I'm glad Harris is campaigning in Miami today.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I wouldn't say Biden is underperforming with Cubans more like a correction. Democrats usually don't get that level of Cuban support that Clinton got in 2016. 2016 was a perfect storm for them to vote Democrats. That is not the case this time they are still Republican and they don't consider themselves as Hispanic. They call themselves White Cuban and the Republican Party is the De Facto white party and that's appealing to them.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Who cares if Biden wins Florida while underperforming Cubans? A win is a win whether it comes by running up the margins at Dade or lowering them in places like the Villages and the panhandle.
Some people are really searching for a reason to be miserable.

[Woody]

It's been clear Biden has been underperforming among Hispanic voters since the primary ended; something many people on this site sneered at earlier in the year. Polls across the board (despite past polls of Hispanic voters often having large errors) have shown Biden underperforming among Hispanic voters.

There is a lot of outreach being done by the campaign, but yes, in addition to the upper midwest, Biden needs to also make some visits to FL. Not too many (HRC spent like half her campaign there only to come up short), but enough to be visible and active.

Latino polling is allover the place though so we really don't know. Not to mention Biden did incredible in the FL primary.

You have Q-pac going from +7 to nearly +30 Biden with Hispanics, you have the CA poll today with Biden doing *better* than HRC 2016, you have YouGov at HRC's margin nationally, while you also have some where Biden is doing worse or better than HRC 2016 (NBC/WSJ from a month or two ago). Polling for Hispanics is just really wobbly, so I don't think too much stock should be put into any one particular narrative about it

The other viable option was Bernie Sanders... LOL

[VAR]

Does anyone think these polls could be like 2018's TX-23 where the GOP looks much better than reality with a local Hispanic population? Remember Dems triaged that district as Hurd was up 15 and on election day he won by like 1,000 votes, a huge mistake. Cell-phone only Hispanic voters are really difficult to poll and you see some good signs for Biden like his huge lead with independents.

FL-26/27 say hi. Polls were very accurate over there in 2018.

[ON Progressive]

Two pages over a single county poll? I remember when Suffolk did two county polls and they both ended up being off by double digits.

[DrScholl]

Really what to look at is Trump's percentage. Biden most certainly gets more than 55% in the county while Trump probably doesn't get 38% (most likely he gets less than that).

[VAR]

Meanwhile,

https://twitter.com/CLFSuperPAC/status/1303328804853739524?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogl...

[Gracile]

Does anyone think these polls could be like 2018's TX-23 where the GOP looks much better than reality with a local Hispanic population? Remember Dems triaged that district as Hurd was up 15 and on election day he won by like 1,000 votes, a huge mistake. Cell-phone only Hispanic voters are really difficult to poll and you see some good signs for Biden like his huge lead with independents.

This is true (and it is part of the reason why I think Biden is being underestimated with Hispanics in the Southwestern US specifically), however, it should be noted that Hispanics are not monolithic and there are important variations between Hispanic populations based on geography, ethnicity, age, whether they are first-generation Americans, second-generation, etc. It's entirely possible that Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade could swing toward Trump while Biden improves with Mexican-Americans in SW Texas, for example.

[Brittain33]

Two pages over a single county poll? I remember when Suffolk did two county polls and they both ended up being off by double digits.

It’s noteworthy when it’s an important county and it’s moving in the opposite direction from every other urban county.

[gf20202]

We are apparently getting a new FL statewide (imagine that) NBC-Marist poll on Meet the Press Daily in a few minutes.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We are apparently getting a new NBC-Marist poll on Meet the Press Daily in a few minutes.

Oh boy oh boy oh boy!

[oriass16]

Same poll in 2016 Hillary was up (+27) 52 D: 25 R, and Clinton ended up winning the county + 29 (63 vs 34).So this poll is trust worthy even if Biden ended up wining here +20 he will be in trouble else where in the state because those white retirees will come home to trump at the end of the day.