Trump wins Russia, Poland, Hungary, and various other countries in the region. Eastern Europe is a good region for Trump. Ukraine is hard to say, as they would care about the Hunter Biden scandal, but obviously they oppose Russia.
A third party comes out of nowhere to win most Middle Eastern countries, a Muslim theocrat. Said candidate does OK in Indonesia, but Biden probably eckes it out there. Iran goes for their own candidate. Trump wins Lebanon and narrowly Israel (he did move the embassy)
If Biden is winning in Muslim countries, he is winning Lebanon. At best, Trump probably wins the Christian vote.
I think that Lebanon would be a 50-50 split in this election, as even though Joe Biden would easily win the votes of Lebanese Shi'a Muslims and the Druze, Donald Trump would do extremely well among Lebanese Christians and Lebanese Sunni Muslims. Still, Joe Biden would easily win the Middle East. The only other Middle Eastern countries that would vote for Donald Trump would be Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Morocco, Egypt, Armenia, Greece, and Cyprus (I considered Armenia, Greece, and Cyprus to be part of the Middle East). Donald Trump would also do very well among Iranian Christians, Iraqi Christians, Baha'is, Zoroastrians, and followers of the more minor religions in the Middle East.
