bagelman
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,630
Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17
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« on: September 14, 2020, 02:31:09 PM » |
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Trump wins Russia, Poland, Hungary, and various other countries in the region. Eastern Europe is a good region for Trump. Ukraine is hard to say, as they would care about the Hunter Biden scandal, but obviously they oppose Russia.
A third party comes out of nowhere to win most Middle Eastern countries, a Muslim theocrat. Said candidate does OK in Indonesia, but Biden probably eckes it out there. Iran goes for their own candidate. Trump wins Lebanon and narrowly Israel (he did move the embassy)
Trump greatly overpreforms in so-called "minority majority" nations, as they're not the minority in their nation. I have no idea how well he does in Africa, many socially conservative but still very third world nations some (Angola) being socialist. In Latin America Trump wins Colombia handily but no idea how well he does elsewhere. Without COVID he'd probably win Brazil. India is quite competitive, Pakistan goes for the theocrat.
Overall, the election would be somewhat competitive. Western Europe and Canada would obviously be Safe Biden. Populist authoritarians win in third world countries all the time, and Africans in Africa don't seem to care much about African Americans and their struggles. Kamala Harris may hurt Biden in ultraconservative countries who don't want a woman on the ticket, but many of these are voting for the Muslim third party candidate anyway and it helps him in regards to nonwhite representation. Biden wins in the end.
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