What regions in Europe and other western countries would Trump win or at least do well?

[Mike88]

Donald Trump would easily win Russia and Slovenia and would likely carry Italy, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Ireland, Greece, Latvia, Croatia, and Romania as well.

Portugal may be one of the most anti-Trump countries worldwide. In a 2018 Gallup poll, only 12% approved of his job and in an another poll, from a Portuguese institute, between Obama or Trump, the Portuguese prefer Obama over Trump 85% to 4%.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Funny enough, Ukraine would be one of Trump's best countries.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Trump would lose every single country, I guarantee it. Only in America will the citizenry tolerate such a disgusting human being holding the highest office in the land.

   

Who’s the bottom left in the original post? (second from bottom in what the quote looks like on my end)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Who’s the bottom left in the original post? (second from bottom in what the quote looks like on my end)

Viktor Orban?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Who’s the bottom left in the original post? (second from bottom in what the quote looks like on my end)

Viktor Orban?

Ah. Thanks! Didn’t recognize the flag behind him either, not that it’s Hungary’s.

[Former President tack50]

A more interesting question to me regarding Europe was how the map would look if people voted the same as the USA. Running the numbers by age, race, and education gave me this map:

I have to say, Castille-Leon voting for the left as Andalucia votes for the right is extremely weird

I am surprised you get to this result though, Castille-Leon is also one of Spain's most rural areas. To a lesser extent I am also surprised the Balearic Islands would be Trumpist while La Rioja or Cantabria are not.

PS: How would the Canaries vote? (I imagine the 2 towns of Ceuta/Melilla would be diehard trumpist)

[Former President tack50]

Trump's approval rating in this country is sub 20%, the idea that he'd win swathes of the North is absurd. But I agree with TiltsAreUnderrated that he'd probably be strongest in places like Essex and coastal communities in the East of England, though not enough to actually win any region.

Based on even swing and putting the Tories at 20% and Labour at 55% (and leaving the Lib Dems the same as in 2019) you'd get almost a complete wipeout for the Conservatives. Labour 544, SNP as official opposition with 32, Lib Dems 31 seats, Conservatives 21

The 21 Conservative seats would be: North Cornwall, Yeovil, North Dorset, Mid Dorset & North Poole, Christchurch, New Forest East, Meon Valley, Brentwood & Ongar, Castle Point, Rayleigh & Wickford, Maldon, Clacton, SW Norfolk, NE Cambridgeshire, North Norfolk, South Holland & The Deepings, Boston & Skegness, Louth & Horncastle, Brigg & Goole, Aldrige-Brownhills, South Staffordshire

Doing a straight Labour 80%, Conservatives 20% map obviously means Labour sweeps every seat in Britain except the speaker's seat.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Any ideas on how Cyprus would vote?

[Adam Griffin]

ITT: further Tender triggering

[Former President tack50]

Any ideas on how Cyprus would vote?

Judging from the 2019 EU election in Cyprus, as well as the 2016 parliamentary election; titanium Biden and in fact well to the left of Europe at large. If I had to make a rough guess, I'd say 80-20 for Biden.

But we have posters here who are a lot more familiar with Cyprus than I am so take it with a grain of salt.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

ITT: further Tender triggering

Snip!

It's okay, everybody.  Just wait until the returns from Estonia come in. 

[Former President tack50]

He gets absolutely demolished. Trump's cultural populism would work pretty well (just like how populism has been in the rise in Europe in general), but his economic positions are way, way to the right of what most Europeans could stomach. Plus many "mainstream conservatives" in Europe could stomach voting for Biden in a way that the "reluctant Republicans" can't.

Does anyone imagine Macron or Merkel voting for Trump over Biden for instance?

The European left is in a God-afwul position, but Trump still would easily lose.

Here would be my very generous ratings for Trump, assuming Trump moderates and modulates his message somewhat (also limiting myself to the EU27+the UK):



Fmr. VP Jean Biden (D-LX) / Senator Carolina Harris (D-ES): 68%, 572 EVs
President Donato Trump (R-IT) / VP Michał Pence (R-PL): 30%, 179 EVs

So basically, Trump would win the Visegrad 4 plus Italy (and only Poland+Hungary would be safe; the Czech Republic and Slovakia would be close).

Oh and I was very generous with Trump here. I think the only countries where he won outright are the 2 Safe ones. The likely ones were close and depend on assumptions you make and the lean ones were ones Trump lost but came close in.

I think my threshold for "Likely" biden was really something like Trump getting 30% of the vote lmao. So this is a map where Trump would seriously overperform; in reality he probably just wins Poland+Hungary.

[Former President tack50]

As for Spain in particular, well Trump would get absolutely demolished, Spain is arguably one of the more left wing countries in Europe even if there are even more left wing ones (like next door Portugal)

In any case, Trump would probably lose all provinces here. The only places where he might have a chance are:

Ceuta: The only place in Spain with US-Style racial polarization and also rather populist, maybe if that polarization holds he could win this but that is dubious

Ávila / Salamanca: The 2 most right wing provinces of Spain and both very rural (especially Ávila), maybe they are conservative enough for Trump to win.

Murcia: Probably Trump's best autonomous community, it is the 3rd most right wing province as well as one of the most "trumpist" (much like the rest of the Spanish southeast). If Trump wins somewhere in Spain, it would be here.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Trump would lose every single country, I guarantee it. Only in America will the citizenry tolerate such a disgusting human being holding the highest office in the land.

   

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Trump would lose every single country, I guarantee it. Only in America will the citizenry tolerate such a disgusting human being holding the highest office in the land.

   

Hard it may be to realize, but Trump is arguably the least bad of all these people.

[Red Wall]

Trump can win every western country except for France thanks to the runoff and Germany cause they love their bureaucrats.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Trump can win every western country except for France thanks to the runoff and Germany cause they love their bureaucrats.

Even Sweden? And Finland?

[Red Wall]

Trump's approval rating in this country is sub 20%, the idea that he'd win swathes of the North is absurd. But I agree with TiltsAreUnderrated that he'd probably be strongest in places like Essex and coastal communities in the East of England, though not enough to actually win any region.

The approval relates to Trump the person from an outside perspective. Give Trump the Tory leadership and he does just a little worse than Johnson (the worse being the suburbs Johnson managed to hold for the Tories).

[Oryxslayer]

Trump would lose every single country, I guarantee it. Only in America will the citizenry tolerate such a disgusting human being holding the highest office in the land.

   

Hard it may be to realize, but Trump is arguably the least bad of all these people.

I would say less 'least bad' and more 'held back from his worst instincts.' It's hard for someone of his persuasion to win a majority in a parliamentary or semi-presidential system, but its easy to go to town once they do. Obviously this doesn't apply to Putin, who didn't have any democratic institutions to really undermine in the first place, or Singapore which was never a democracy. The US is fortunate that our culture, laws, and institutions evolved or were designed to enfeeble authoritarian attempts to co-opt institutions for permanent power. Once Turkey elected Erdogan for instance, that was basically GG.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Trump's approval rating in this country is sub 20%, the idea that he'd win swathes of the North is absurd. But I agree with TiltsAreUnderrated that he'd probably be strongest in places like Essex and coastal communities in the East of England, though not enough to actually win any region.

The approval relates to Trump the person from an outside perspective. Give Trump the Tory leadership and he does just a little worse than Johnson (the worse being the suburbs Johnson managed to hold for the Tories).

Trump would do better with the Tory leadership, but our electorate is much less polarised, even more so now than during the Brexit crisis. Even during that crisis, Labour massively overperformed in large part because of an awful Tory leader.

As someone in favour of single-payer, even I'm not 100% on board with the level of unquestioning support for the way the NHS works in this country, but Conservatives must absolutely commit to supporting it. It's probably more of a state religion than our actual state religion.  I could see Trump shifting economically left outside the confines of the Republican Party, but he would not have the self-discipline to avoid making some statement about defunding bits of it that he found objectionable and that would be instant game over. His social security plans would also infuriate the pensioners who decide most of our elections.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

I would say less 'least bad' and more 'held back from his worst instincts.' It's hard for someone of his persuasion to win a majority in a parliamentary or semi-presidential system, but its easy to go to town once they do. Obviously this doesn't apply to Putin, who didn't have any democratic institutions to really undermine in the first place, or Singapore which was never a democracy. The US is fortunate that our culture, laws, and institutions evolved or were designed to enfeeble authoritarian attempts to co-opt institutions for permanent power. Once Turkey elected Erdogan for instance, that was basically GG.

It also helps that Trump is indisputably the least intelligent of these people.

[parochial boy]

Trump's approval rating in this country is sub 20%, the idea that he'd win swathes of the North is absurd. But I agree with TiltsAreUnderrated that he'd probably be strongest in places like Essex and coastal communities in the East of England, though not enough to actually win any region.

The approval relates to Trump the person from an outside perspective. Give Trump the Tory leadership and he does just a little worse than Johnson (the worse being the suburbs Johnson managed to hold for the Tories).

Yeah, even then, blatantly no. The premise of the question is how would he do. Him being who he is is someone who is nearly unanimously detested in most of Europe, and that is because of his persona, not because he likes to lash out at the EU or whatever. To say that would magically change just because he was within those countries is one hell of a stretch.

Even then, let's indulge your premise and make the assumption that Trump is in fact a completely different person, and changes huge chunks of his style and policy agenda so as to fit into a European political outlook. Even then, he is still fitting comfortably into one of the radical right parties, which, outside of maybe Italy and Flanders, and - depending on how generous you are feeling, the UK - are basically not, nor are they even close to being, capable of leading governments in any of the EU-15 + Switzerland and Norway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This thread is strange. Donald Trump is extremely unpopular here.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This thread is strange. Donald Trump is extremely unpopular here.

It's not out of line with the transatlantic "Parallels!" punditry, though (and in fairness, Biden would probably be unpopular enough to drive some local Trump haters into his arms). Remember when BBC started referring to Labour's northern seats as the "red wall?"

[Former President tack50]

Trump can win every western country except for France thanks to the runoff and Germany cause they love their bureaucrats.

LMAO no.

Even if you restrict yourself to the much easier to achieve criteria of "winning a weak plurality", Trump would not win in most of Western Europe.

Trump can somewhat be compared ot the right populist parties that are increasing across Europe, from Vox to AfD. However these parties rarely are able to win a plurality, let alone lead a governing coalition.

Even with the super weak "win a plurality against a divided field" threshold and modulating his message to be relatable to an audience of the country in question, as of now Trump could really only win in:

France (round 1 only, the runoff would kill him)
Italy (see: Lega currently leading)
Belgium (on a technicality and with a plurality of like 20% of the PV)
Maybe Finland (True Finns are doing well)
Maybe Sweden (SD are doing well)

With the same platform he is running on, I think he would win just in Italy and maybe in Belgium with a weak plurality in the high teens due to the language split