🇬🇪 Georgia on my mind: Parliamentary elections on 26 October

[Astatine]

And here we go again with GD's attempts to power-grab: UNM Chairman Nika Melia was detained by court in Tbilisi. Melia was part of anti-governmental protests against their increasing authoritarianism in 2019 after which he was forced to wear a monitoring bracelet, which he removed last year somewhen.

His detention led to PM Giorgi Gakharia's resignation. He opposes the detention citing that it would increase polarization. Oppositionial politicians describe the actions as politically motivated.

With Maia Tskitishvili taking over as acting PM, Georgia is one out of two Republics worldwide (the other being Estonia), where both the incumbent President and Head of Government are female.

Ah, and Gakharia apparently left GD as well.

His successor has just been nominated, it's going to be Irakli Garibashvili, who succeeded Bidzina Ivanishvili in 2013 but resigned after two years in office. He made a comeback to the political stage in 2019 when he was appointed Secretary of Defence.

[Astatine]

The nomination of Irakli Garibashvili is a clear sign of the GD not aiming any compromises but fueling division. Garibashvili, a confidante of Ivanishvili, had a quite tumultuous term as PM:

- He is a hardliner when it comes to opposing UNM, calling them a criminal organization (well, not necessarily wrong), proposing to erase them from the political radar and condoning violence against them.
- He accused UNM of organizing LGBT marches to undermine Georgian society and said that the oppositional TV channel Rustavi 2 is complotting with UNM in promoting sodomy.
- He actively tried to purge Ivanishvili critics from GD and the government coalition, leading to the Free Democratic Party returning to the opposition benches.
- Members of his family are accused of corruption and bribery, such as his father-in-law who was head of a police district.
- Under his government, the presidential office was stripped of any responsibilities since President Giorgi Margvelashvili did not end up being an Ivanishvili puppet.
- When he served as Interior Minister, a revenge porn video of an illegally recorded gay threesome was leaked, leading to the resignation of a government critical chief prosecutor only to replace him with a close ally of Garibashvili, who is a GD consultant now.

He was such a terrible PM that GD dropped from 65 % in polling (November 2013) to 21 % (December 2015), 12 % behind UNM. He resigned after intra-party pressure and was replaced with Giorgi Kvirikashvili, under whom GD stabilized again and went on to win a 2nd term in government.

His appointment is nothing but a provocation but meanwhile Ivanishvili puppet President Salome Zurabishvili continues to call for "unity" and an "end of division". She's a bit like Kevin McCarthy in that matter.

With Garibashvili back as head of government soon, short-time acting PM Maia Tskitishvili announced not to be part of the incoming government.
Giorgi Gakharia's farewell post on Facebook received over 128 thousand likes (remember: Georgia has a population of about 3.5 million, so that's quite a lot!) and he gets lots of praise for his resignation which is often described as courageous, even by opposition politicians. I wouldn't wonder if he started an own political project that could actually be successful in defining itself as serious opposition to an increasingly authoritarian GD (since he made a clear cut) and a corrupt UNM along with its splinter parties.

[Astatine]

UNM leader Nika Melia has been forcefully arrested this morning (after he was set free on demand of Giorgi Gakharia just before tendering his resignation) together with 21 UNM officials, just shortly after Irakli Garibashvili was formally confirmed as PM. He also announced that the GD will not seek any compromise deals with "the radical opposition".

Garibashvili's successor as PM, Giorgi Kvirikashvili, and former foreign minister Mikhail Janelidze criticized the arrest and called their own party to consider snap elections.

Welcome to a new chapter of "Georgia in disarray"!

[Astatine]

UNM leader Nika Melia has been forcefully arrested this morning (after he was set free on demand of Giorgi Gakharia just before tendering his resignation) together with 21 UNM officials, just shortly after Irakli Garibashvili was formally confirmed as PM. He also announced that the GD will not seek any compromise deals with "the radical opposition".

Garibashvili's successor as PM, Giorgi Kvirikashvili, and former foreign minister Mikhail Janelidze criticized the arrest and called their own party to consider snap elections.

Welcome to a new chapter of "Georgia in disarray"!

the monarchy should be restored.

Nah, Georgia is going a step backwards already, she doesn't need to go two.

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1379601317497335810

First post-election poll!
It was conducted by IRI, not NDI as indicated, and also provides other interesting numbers:





The whole poll is available here: https://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/iri_poll_presentation-georgia_february_2021_1.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1mE0WyKgHFk9gYuohb9D4bCr8YcS7Dyl0QjtnvKvojQ_dH84W9ok6fztg

[Astatine]

So, some things have changed since April:

- The EU brokered a deal with the Georgian government: If the GD receives less than 43 % in this years' local elections, GD will agree to hold snap elections. This was a major breakthrough. Additionally, UNM leader Nika Melia was freed from jail thanks to the deal. I didn't believe in GD's ability to compromise and we'll see whether they will actually keep their promise (assuming they get less than 47 % in the local elections), but it is a first step

- The opposition has been split on whether to actually enter Parliament or not. UNM is divided on this issue (an MP just left the party today), and some Lelo and EG MPs united to form a new parliamentary group and assume their seats. Victory for GD.

- The ultimate Estrella-Astatine political coverage crossover: Former Slovak Economy Minister Vazil Hudák has been appointed to the role of governmental investment advisor.

[Astatine]

https://civil.ge/archives/419860?fbclid=IwAR0nxkhXf3D2fwsGl6aby-LxoYCNsK0wKkkWGbrOxa41v4zueE7bTctANI0

15 Georgian political parties agreed to fight to eliminate discrimination and violence against LGBTQ citizens with all mechanisms at their disposal, Tbilisi Pride, a local organization uniting LGBTQ and rights activists announced on May 16.

The signatories include the United National Movement, the largest opposition party, European Georgia, right libertarian Girchi – New Political Center and Girchi – More Freedom parties, Republican Party, Strategy Aghmashenebeli, Lelo, Elene Khoshtaria’s Droa movement, Free Democrats, Victorious Georgia, Progress and Freedom, Law and Justice, the Reformer, United Georgia and ex-MP Eka Beselia’s For Justice party.

Tbilisi Pride said the parties agreed to defend the right to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression of all citizens irrespective of their sexual orientation and gender identity. The parties also agreed not to allow their representatives to use hate speech and incite social strife based on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity.

That's a damn major thing for LGBTI rights in Georgia and shows that - especially in Eastern Europe - PSE parties (GD) are not necessarily more likely to support LGBTI rights than EPP parties (UNM).

[Astatine]

Some updates:

Former PM Giorgi Gakharia's new party is called For Georgia (FG) and somewhere in the center between UNM and GD. For Georgia strongly favors EU integration and runs on an anti-corruption platform. First polls have the party in 3rd place:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1408844248875769857

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1408841952922112005

If repeated in the local elections this year, a result like this would mean snap elections.
Ah, and the UNM deputies finally assumed their parliamentary seats.

[Astatine]

Well, Tbilisi Pride was supposed to take place this week.
It turned into a fiasco.

Far-right groups, Orthodox conservatives and pro-Russian protesters rioted in front of the Georgian Parliamentary building, with law enforcement doing nothing. The office of the Pride March organizers was rampaged, they also received several death threats and EU and pride flags were destroyed.
There were numerous attacks against journalists and the anti-gay crowd even attacked a foreigner who happened to wear an ear ring.

Representatives of the Orthodox Church stated Pride was worse than the occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, because the latter could be reversed at least while "propaganda of homosexuality" inevitably ruins the Georgian society.

And the government?

Sees a conspiracy behind it. Of course, it was UNM which made things escalate and Saakashvili is behind it. Blablabla.
The same as always, and the Prime Minister blames the victims of course, because the organization was unreasonable and they risked the confrontation.

See for yourself:

https://twitter.com/Giorgi_Gogia/status/1411983386671976448

https://twitter.com/JackDunc1/status/1412045858154160134

[Astatine]

Georgian Dream has officially become nuts.

To sum up, following the failed Pride March that led to the death of one journalist and massive criticism by US and EU, Garibashvili still blamed the opposition and the LGBT activists for the results. There were mass demonstrations against the government in solidarity with the LGBT community.

Being confronted with increased pressure and a high chance that a united opposition plus Gakharia's party would win the local elections in fall, GD just withdrew from the EU-Georgia deal which solved the parliamentary crisis. According to the deal, opposition MPs would assume their seats in Parliament and recognize the election results in exchange for the GD agreeing to hold snap elections if they fall below 43 % in the local elections. Even UNM MPs agreed to assume their seats after initial hesitation.

Now GD breaks the pledge for no reason but some standardly repeated Saakashvili conspiracies, and this move will not help the country moving closer to the EU.

GD is increasingly becoming an oligarch version of Fidesz on steroids.
How tf doesn't the European PES of which GD is an observer member care at all about what's been going on?

[Astatine]

Oh well, this is gonna be fun tomorrow. The campaigns for the local elections were the usual divise sh#tshow both GD and UNM are known for, with the GD accusing former PM Giorgi Gakharia to have a cocaine problem.

Now, one day ahead of the vote, the bomb that all were waiting for for several months exploded: Former President Mikhail Saakashvili, after many announcements of returning to his home country, finally entered Georgia - Of course, this would turn into a spectacle in all ways.

Before returning to Georgia, Saakashvili announced new details about his private life. He has left former First Lady Sandra Roelofs to form a family with the Ukrainian MP Liza Yasko. Then, he announced early that he entered the territory of Georgia, while the government denied those claims and as usual, GD accused Saakashvili/UNM of lying and all... the usual playbook. Until it came out, he actually entered the country after 8 years - And got detained immediately!


Source: agenda.ge/IPN
https://twitter.com/agenda_ge/status/1443984776663388160?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

Saakashvili called on his supporters to protest tomorrow to defend the integrity of the elections. The government obviously celebrates that their main opponent finally got detained, and President Salome Zurabishvili has already announced she wouldn't ever pardon Saakashvili (after being a more critical voice of GD in recent months, unusual!), but I wouldn't be so sure of that. Remember that her re-election bid completely depends on GD, as the popular presidential votes were abolished in a constitutional reform (and presidential terms were extended), replaced by an unelected and unaccountable electoral college. So she might just listen to her conscience depending on the incoming developments.

Saakashvili wants to start a hunger strike now according to media reports - And with this maybe most crucial development in Georgian politics in years, tomorrow's local elections are completely unpredictable. UNM might benefit since voters are electrified their idol is back, and while Saakashvili is still very unpopular among many Georgians, GD has been delivering a sh#tshow in the last months, with all kinds of arrogance, conspiracies, obstruction of the press and plain lies. But GD's biggest nemesis coming back might also help them. And who knows whether tomorrow's election will even be an integral one?

My gut feeling tells me that this will benefit both UNM and GD, to the expense of the smaller opposition parties.

[Astatine]

Maybe I'm reading too much into it because it's late, but this strikes me as the face of a man who, for better or worse, is completely aware that his life is absurd and will one day make for a great biopic, and despite all the inconveniences and worse, he's basically at peace with it.

Oh definitely, he knows he has a place in history books... I don't agree with GD on anything and despise this authoritarian nutwhack party, but calling Saakashvili a "monkey" today fits well.

A little recap of some of the highlights in his eccentric career so far:

[Astatine]

Exit polls for the Tbilisi mayoral race:

Gorbi/Imedi TV (close to GD):

Kakha Kaladze - 51.3%
Nika Melia  - 34.6%
Giorgi Gakharia - 5.6%

Edison Research/Formula TV (somewhat independent):

Kakha Kaladze - 43%
Nika Melia - 39%
Giorgi Gakharia - 7%

Ipsos/Mtavari Arkhi (opposition aligned):

Nika Melia - 40.8%
Kakha Kaladze - 40.2%
Giorgi Gakharia - 8.7%

That means Kaladze will probably win, but narrowly. Oof, the protests are gonna be fun to watch.

[Astatine]

All 5 major cities (Tbilisi, Rustavi, Poti, Kutaisi, Batumi) will have runoffs for the Mayoral positions, between candidates of UNM and GD:

Tbilisi:
GD: 45 %
UNM: 34 %

Rustavi:
GD: 45 %
UNM: 44 %

Kutaisi:
UNM: 44 %
GD: 42 %

Poti:
GD: 48 %
UNM: 38 %

Batumi:
UNM: 43 %
GD: 41 %

In whole Georgia, GD has won the proportional vote for the city councils, but there will runoffs coinciding with the mayoral runoffs (85 % of all precincts counted):

GD: 47.6 %
UNM: 30.5 %
For Georgia: 7.6 %
Lelo: 2.6 %
EG: 1.7 %

[Astatine]

So, while Saakashvili is on hunger strike (maybe that was planned all along which is why he gained so much weight? ), runoffs took place today, and it looks like GD is sweeping all municipalities.

Tbilisi:
Kaladze (GD): 55.8 %
Melia (UNM): 42.2 %

Kutaisi:
Khakhaleishvili (GD): 52.3 %
Dekanoidze (UNM): 47.7 %

Batumi:
Chiqovani (GD): 50.8 %
Kirtadze (UNM): 49.2 %

Rustavi:
Lacabidze (GD): 54.4 %
Kirkitadze (UNM): 45.6 %

Poti:
Vacharadze (GD): 57.4 %
Ugulava (UNM): 42.6 %

With the results in Batumi and Kutaisi seeming especially close, it is quite likely there will be complaints by opposition leaders of riggery and fraud.

[Astatine]

A member of the electoral committee in a precinct of Kutaisi has alleged GD of pressuring her into allowing non-registered people to vote in the runoff elections. So far, this is the first "high profile" allegation in this election not solely based on rumors and hearsay.

GD won the Kutaisi mayoral election by 2,200 votes, therefore it is questionable whether this fraud really mattered a lot, but if it happened in several precincts, it could have swung the outcome of the election.

UNM called for protests in the next days, peaking next weekend in Tbilisi. The protests since the legislative elections have been going on for almost a year now.

Meanwhile, GD is confident in keeping control of the municipal councils. GD leader Kobakhidze announced that majority deals will be made in several municipalities, although it remains to be seen how true that is. The only major municipal council without overall control is Batumi (16 GD, 15 UNM, 2 FG, 1 Lelo, 1 Ind.) - Gakharia's party holds the balance of power, but shows signs of crumbling already (just like EG did after its municipal election success in 2017) as several members of FG that have just freshly been elected to municipal council announced to leave the party.

And on the top of it all, GD flirts with the idea with raising the parliamentary threshold back to 5 %, while Saakashvili still celebrates himself from prison and the minor opposition party Lelo announces to boycott Parliament again. Funny times, right?

[Astatine]

On October 26, Georgia will hold its general election, the Central Election Commission announced yesterday. Perhaps the thread title could be changed to reflect this.

Before 2020, Georgia had an MMM (mixed member majoritarian) system with 77 proportional seats (5% threshold) in one district and 73 FPTP seats in single-member districts with two rounds. In 2020, the country switched to 120 proportional seats (1% threshold) and 30 FPTP seats in single-member districts with two rounds. The decrease of the height of the threshold and the increase of the number of proportional seats led to a much greater number of parties represented in parliament.

This year, the country will switch to a completely proportional system with all 150 MPs elected in one district - but the 5% threshold will come back. The electoral system will therefore essentially be the same as in Slovakia. Because of the fact that Georgia has a lot of parties below or around the threshold, there is also a similar uncertainty regarding the next parliament's composition as there is in Slovakia every time.

There are not many regional disparities regarding the distribution of electoral support in Georgia, which means Georgian Dream used to win almost all (2016) or literally all (2020) FPTP seats. On 40%-50% of the PR vote, this meant GD kept winning majorities in parliament. After this year's election, those days will be over: the likeliest scenario is that GD wins a plurality but will have to build a coalition with other parties. Perhaps in anticipation of the necessity to have GD-friendly "proxies" in the next parliament, GD had a right-wing splitoff named People's Power which still supports the government but takes a harder line on traditional values, NGOs etc.

Georgia has a lot of parties in the 'centrist, pro-EU, liberal, anti-corruption' lane - unless some of them merge, a fairly large percentage of the vote could end up below the threshold. Saakashvili's UNM has already built an alliance with the party Strategy Agmashenebeli, named Victory Platform, but polls indicate this hasn't added any additional votes to the bloc. Unless Saakashvili kisses UNM goodbye forever (and who knows this is sincere?), there will be a market for anti-GD parties that promise about the same things as UNM, but don't carry the baggage of UNM and Saakashvili. Merely a rebranding of UNM probably won't attract those voters. For Georgia and Lelo have already announced they will not enter any electoral alliance involving UNM.

From my point of view, the return of the 5% is a threshold is a pity (a lower threshold would be better), but the election is still going to be very interesting, as the necessity to build multi-party coalitions will probably lead to a profound change in the way politics is done in Georgia.

Nika Gvaramia, former head of the opposition media outlet Mtavari Arkhi who was pardoned by Salome Zurabishvili in July, announced yesterday that he will return to politics and currently holds negotiations with split UNM MPs about a potential new political project.

In December, Nika Melia, former UNM leader, departed from the party after a month-long conflict with newly elected leader Levan Khabeishvili, who is a close confidante of former shady UNM officials like ex-PM Vano Merabishvili. Several local councillors also quit UNM, leaving the party in a state of disarray. After the "Strength is in Unity" UNM-led coalition won 36 seats in the past election, "unity" is no more and mere 20 members are left in the rump faction. Melia's party is due to be founded in February and might include former UNM hopefuls like ex-faction chairwoman Khatia Dekanoidze (who, btw, had a brief career as official in Ukraine together with Misha). Gvaramia might be part of this party. Remains to be seen if it will face the same as UNM split European Georgia, which faded into complete irrelevancy after an initial somewhat promising start.

Besides UNM and Strategy (VP), Girchi/More Freedom and Droa have announced the formation of an electoral alliance called Girchi/Droa which is vying for the youth vote.

The most recent poll had GD at 36.6%, VP at 21.5%, For Georgia at 8.8%, Lelo at 6.7% and Girchi/Droa at 5.0%, with all other parties failing the threshold, albeit narrowly in some cases (Labour at 4.7% and Ana Dolidze's For the People at 3.7%), with the following seat result:

 

GD would need a coalition partner or some For Georgia MPs that would split to ally with GD. This happened in some councils after the 2021 locals, when Gakharia's party showed its first cracks. Should also be noted that the new electoral law isn't fully proportional but gives a minor majority bonus to the largest party, which could be crucial in a result like forecasted by the most recent surveys.

Besides whatever the new Melia/Gvaramia project will be, the President remains a bit of a wildcard. Her approvals surged after she became increasingly distant from GD that even attempted to impeach her. Zurabishvili would have to resign early to run in the parliamentary elections, but there's at least rumors she might play a role and she herself did not fully deny that she could remain in politics for the sake of Georgia's European future. If not with an own party, Gakharia might be the closest match as he clearly occupies the "not UNM/opposition, but not GD anymore" gap right now.

Will be a fun year. Presidential elections will also take place btw, either in Summer (should Salome resign), or in Winter (after the parliamentary elections). The President will be elected by an electoral college of 300 members (150 MPs, 21 members of the Adjaran Supreme Council, 21 members of the Abkhaz Supreme Council, 108 local delegates). Unless the opposition wins the parliamentary elections by a comfortable margin, a GD backed President seems likely, though they'd be quite powerless anyway. My bets would be on Shalva Papuashvili, incumbent Speaker, who at least pretends to sound somewhat moderate internationally compared to known ranters Kobakhidze & Gharibashvili.

[Astatine]

Thanks for this! Two questions:

1) why did Georgia change their electoral law in the first place? Wouldn't Georgia Dream want to keep a system that benefited them?

2) My assumption is that the Abkhaz Supreme Council is an appointed body of do nothing hacks from the ruling party. Is that true? Does it have any real responsibilities post 2008? Why are they represented in the electoral college but not in set aside seats in the parliament?

1) In 2019, there were massive protests against the GD government that were sparked by a Russian MP chairing an interparliamentary Christian Orthodox assembly from the Speaker's seat (in Russian), that eventually led to demands to change the electoral system. Ivanishvili and GD calculate their steps very carefully and know that anything seeming to much like a power grab could immediately backfire.

A strategy GD regularly uses is to compare proposed bills to other Western countries in their propaganda machines (the Foreign Agent Bill in March being inspired by the American FARA, the switch to the electoral college in presidential elections being based on the German system, a 5 % threshold being in common in many other countries etc.). If this doesn't work, they will find a boogeyman. For this term, it's the "People's Power" faction, which also submitted the Foreign Agents Bill in Parliament. But even that didn't work out, so GD dropped the proposed bill and now slowly tries to implement aspects of what they originally intended to do in different pieces of legislation. Every overstep could very well swing public opinion against them.

They thus accepted some demands such as a reduction of the number of constituencies and 1 % threshold for 2020, but backtracked on some initially made promises (fully proportional system by 2020). What did they have to lose? They had a constitutional majority in 2016-2020 and left their mark, and even with a reduced majority they still continued to rule.
The loss of constituency seats in 2024 is partially compensated by raising the threshold to 5 % - Which GD promised not to do, btw.
With the current electoral law, GD might very well keep its absolute majority with a way worse result, using beforementioned poll with Girchi/Droa at 4.9 instead of 5.0 %:



The current electoral also has a minor majority bonus: The ideal seat share is rounded down to the integer number, all seats are added and everything remaining below 150 goes to the largest party. The more parties enter Parliament, the bigger could the majority bonus be in the end.

Originally, GD basically planned to grant all votes below the threshold to the largest party, which would've looked like... this:

https://twitter.com/That_Garth_Guy/status/1727773982407966956

2.) Abkhazia and Adjara are both autonomous republic within Georgia. They are essentially treated the same way de iure, and since Georgia doesn't exercise any control over Abkhazia, it has a govt.-in-exile and legislative-in-exile. The electoral college is based on the German system (50 % MPs, 50 % regional delegates - Since Georgia is not a federal state, the legislatures of the autonomous republics and local councils share the remaining members).

According to its website (and comparison with Georgian Wikipedia), the Supreme Councillors elected in 1990 still seem to be serving their mandates (they all are old and some are still officially part of Gamzakhurdia's "Round Table" faction - a party that dissolved in the early 90s, while some are GD members). Not sure how vacancies are being dealt with, but they are essentially paid by the govt. and hence are safe votes in favor of whomever GD nominates.

[Astatine]

I guess the Ukraine War is the top issue of the elections2

No (according to the most recent poll, multiple options could be chosen):

    Unemployment - 36%
    Poverty - 36%
    Rising prices - 34%
    Occupied Territories - 26%
    Immigration - 19%
    Education - 17%
    Pensions - 17%
    illegal drug use - 17%
    Health Care - 15%
    Russian migration to Georgia - 11%
    Crime - 9%
    Corruption - 8%
    EU membership - 8%
    War in Ukraine - 7%
    Movement in Tbilisi - 4%
    Free food at school - 4%
    Political polaritasia - 4%
    Environmental protection problems - 3%
    Accommodation - 3%

(Source: https://formulanews.ge/News/103920)

Today, PM Irakli Garibashvili announced his resignation. He will switch positions with GD party chairman Irakli Kobakhidze. Kobakhidze is a very close confidante of Bidzina Ivanishvili and even harsher in his rhetorics than Garibashvili.

[Astatine]

ემიგრაცია is emigration (so not immigration) at 19%. პოლარიცაზია should be polarization at 4%.

I think გადაადგილება თბილისში ("movement in Tbilisi") is about mobility/infrastructural issues within Tbilisi.

Thanks, just copied the Google webpage translator results without checking word for word

[Astatine]

Salome Zurabishvili today had her final address to Parliament as President. She lambasted GD, calling their rule a "one-party, one-person, vertical model" while naming Ivanishvili "the one who actually runs the country". She also criticized PM nominee Kobakhidze for allowing Gavrilov's Night to happen in 2019 and offered to form a common platform for Europe, in which political actors and civil society organizations could participate. GD obviously called her out for that, while UNM, SB, Citizens and Lelo are open to work under such agreement.

She definitely doesn't seem like someone whose political career is ending now. Her transformation from a Misha ally to a vocal Misha critic, becoming a papertiger for GD's interests and now a somewhat independent leader is... remarkable, but it remains to be seen what her true intentions are. While many opposition figures generally agree with her analysis and have grown warmer to her in recent times, she is still somewhat distrusted among them.

[Astatine]

Nika Gvaramia and Nika Melia presented their new party today, called "Akhali" (New). Remains to be seen what their platform will be.

While parallels might be drawn to EG - once hopeful UNM split - that fell into disarray, it should be noted that the current UNM leadership is *really* disliked, even among opposition supporters. And political attitudes since 2017 have also shifted somewhat, Misha's increasing derangement post return doesn't help his party at all.

[Astatine]

"Georgia could soon introduce tough new rules clamping down on LGBTQ+ rights and barring public celebrations of same-sex relationships, if a new draft bill introduced by the country’s ruling party is passed.

[...]

In the way it's currently proposed, this bill is likely going nowhere for now. GD aims to implement it as "constitutional law", which are not part of the Constitution itself but of constitutional rank. For constitutional amendments or constitutional laws to pass, either a 3/4 majority (113 votes) is required, or two votes in two parliamentary terms with a 2/3 majority (100 votes).

GD+People's Power are at 84 now, add the European Socialists which are basically always voting with GD and you're at 88, but beyond, the opposition is a quite solid bloc even with defectors happening occasionally (which are rumored to be paid by GD). But swinging 12 votes seems essentially impossible for now, and even in that case, GD would need to win 2/3 of the seats in October - Not impossible, but rather unlikely unless the opposition really implodes. GD representatives themselves know it won't pass in the current term.

Likely just an electoral game to mobilize conservative voters against the "liberal radical opposition", as GD frames it.

[Astatine]

GD announces it will resubmit the Foreign Agents' Law ("Russian Law") to Parliament. This bill caused massive protests last year, with thousands going to the street, with GD ultimately withdrawing it after backlash became too strong, with the party dropping to the 30s in polling. GD now seems very determined to slam it through according to party official statements.

Protests seem likely, not sure to which extent. Either GD is cooking here (pushing it through before Summer break, where Georgia is heading to the Euro Championship in Soccer for the first time, while the opposition remains toothless and divided) or they have been in power for too long, completely misestimating public sentiment.

[Astatine]

New "poll":

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1778500140430393379

Note that GORBI and Imedi are govt. mouthpieces - can be pretty much trashed. No way EG - a party that has lost all of its MPs to defections and resignations and has been in a state of disarray since 2021 - is at 4.5%.
CRRC/NDI and IPM/IRI polls should drop in spring, maybe also Edison Research (though the latter has a minor opposition bias).